The Wiz Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I received a question in the Davidson spread thread from @SLU_Nick that I thought was interesting enough to create a new thread. Here it is... @The Wiz - what would the spread br if this team played the Crews/yarbrough/bartley team? Can the computer pull that one off? At first as was just going to give a simple ...no , the computer can't go back in time and play an old team....but then I thought while the computer can't do it on its own ...it might be able to do it if I helped it. I decided to give it a try. There were a lot of issues in trying to do that but one thing was I had the data base from back then....If I could convert the present day data back a decade I might be able to do the comparison. This led to a series of questions.... First (putting on my Doc Brown DeLorean hat) would going back in time upset the space time continuum. I decided it would be OK since things were a mess in the present. The next issue was how to convert the data into 2014-2016...The algorithms that I use now are different. The NCAA was different... 11 teams less . Even the game was different...a shorter 3P shot. But again, I not only had the data base from then but had the algorithm changes over the years. I could unwind the data using the changed rithms and go "back to the future". Once I was able to go back, I had to decide what to do? @SLU_Nick mentioned Yarbrough and Bartley teams. That really didn't help because they both played on 2 Crews teams...Crews 2014-15 and Crews 2015-16...these will be known going forward as C15 and C16. ...both bad teams but not the same. What to do?...Let's have a game between C15 & C16...again the space time continuum comes into play again as some of the same players are on both teams and are playing against themselves. But if the Delorean can do it so can the computer ...So we set the clock back to April 2016 and play the game at Chaifetz ..where both teams are the home team. C16 wins the game by 2. C16 turns out was the better team...While both C15 and C16 both had 11-21 records ...I had C15 with only 10 wins as 1 of the wins was not a D1 team. In addition C16 had a better SOS (B) than C16 (B- ). Further, C16 competed in an A10 conf that had 4 teams with 25+ wins....The C15 A-10 had only 2 teams with 25+ wins. So C16 with a tougher schedule , a better A-10 conf and 1 more win was the better team of the 2 bad Crews team. Overall grade C16...C-....C15 ..D. Next game was our current team against the C15 team.... Some other issues ....C15 played 31 games ...we have played only 19. ...Adjusting 3P shots for the 2 different time periods....etc. In this game, the Ford team wins by 3...btw the C16 game against Ford's current team ends in a tie...I didn't want to play the OT out ...The key piece of info was that the C16 team was equal to the present day team. Bottom line...The C15 team was worse than the present day team...however the season isn't over yet...I will leave it up to Nick if he wants to revisit this topic at the end of the season and see if the conclusion is different. We now return to 2024 using 1.21 gigawatts. NYBilliken, stmdragons, JMM28 and 6 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Did you put a Flux-Transformer in a Delorean, get it up to 88 mph, and apply 1.21 Gigiwatts of electricity as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: I received a question in the Davidson spread thread from @SLU_Nick that I thought was interesting enough to create a new thread. Here it is... @The Wiz - what would the spread br if this team played the Crews/yarbrough/bartley team? Can the computer pull that one off? At first as was just going to give a simple ...no , the computer can't go back in time and play an old team....but then I thought while the computer can't do it on its own ...it might be able to do it if I helped it. I decided to give it a try. There were a lot of issues in trying to do that but one thing was I had the data base from back then....If I could convert the present day data back a decade I might be able to do the comparison. This led to a series of questions.... First (putting on my Doc Brown DeLorean hat) would going back in time upset the space time continuum. I decided it would be OK since things were a mess in the present. The next issue was how to convert the data into 2014-2016...The algorithms that I use now are different. The NCAA was different... 11 teams less . Even the game was different...a shorter 3P shot. But again, I not only had the data base from then but had the algorithm changes over the years. I could unwind the data using the changed rithms and go "back to the future". Once I was able to go back, I had to decide what to do? @SLU_Nick mentioned Yarbrough and Bartley teams. That really didn't help because they both played on 2 Crews teams...Crews 2014-15 and Crews 2015-16...these will be known going forward as C15 and C16. ...both bad teams but not the same. What to do?...Let's have a game between C15 & C16...again the space time continuum comes into play again as some of the same players are on both teams and are playing against themselves. But if the Delorean can do it so can the computer ...So we set the clock back to April 2016 and play the game at Chaifetz ..where both teams are the home team. C16 wins the game by 2. C16 turns out was the better team...While both C15 and C16 both had 11-21 records ...I had C15 with only 10 wins as 1 of the wins was not a D1 team. In addition C16 had a better SOS (B) than C16 (B- ). Further, C16 competed in an A10 conf that had 4 teams with 25+ wins....The C15 A-10 had only 2 teams with 25+ wins. So C16 with a tougher schedule , a better A-10 conf and 1 more win was the better team of the 2 bad Crews team. Overall grade C16...C-....C15 ..D. Next game was our current team against the C15 team.... Some other issues ....C15 played 31 games ...we have played only 19. ...Adjusting 3P shots for the 2 different time periods....etc. In this game, the Ford team wins by 3...btw the C16 game against Ford's current team ends in a tie...I didn't want to play the OT out ...The key piece of info was that the C16 team was equal to the present day team. Bottom line...The C15 team was worse than the present day team...however the season isn't over yet...I will leave it up to Nick if he wants to revisit this topic at the end of the season and see if the conclusion is different. We now return to 2024 using 1.21 gigawatts. That’s excellent work, The Wiz, I mean outstandingly excellent. In fact so excellent, it becomes incumbent on SLU to develop a basketball program in which The Wiz can take great pride. Me, and more importantly, Bayes, are very proud of you and hold you in the highest regard!! (No blue font) The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Yeah that's some good analysis, as someone who is terrible at this kinda stuff I understand the value and appreciate those with the skills to do this type of analysis. I was thinking about sports analysis the other day as % to win, BPi and other stats, often driven by betting/daily fantasy seem to be more prominent. Would we ever get to a place where it was so good that game prediction undermines the game? We're way off from that because humans play and there's so many factors that can't be accounted for in a computer. But it is interesting The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Box and Won Posted January 25 Popular Post Share Posted January 25 I fear that forcing a computer to run a simulation between these two absolute dogsh-- teams could just be the turning point at which the robots turn against humanity, the technological equivalent of conjuring up an evil spirit. Please be careful. Bizziken, TheChosenOne, SLUMedBilliken15 and 7 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: I received a question in the Davidson spread thread from @SLU_Nick that I thought was interesting enough to create a new thread. Here it is... @The Wiz - what would the spread br if this team played the Crews/yarbrough/bartley team? Can the computer pull that one off? At first as was just going to give a simple ...no , the computer can't go back in time and play an old team....but then I thought while the computer can't do it on its own ...it might be able to do it if I helped it. I decided to give it a try. There were a lot of issues in trying to do that but one thing was I had the data base from back then....If I could convert the present day data back a decade I might be able to do the comparison. This led to a series of questions.... First (putting on my Doc Brown DeLorean hat) would going back in time upset the space time continuum. I decided it would be OK since things were a mess in the present. The next issue was how to convert the data into 2014-2016...The algorithms that I use now are different. The NCAA was different... 11 teams less . Even the game was different...a shorter 3P shot. But again, I not only had the data base from then but had the algorithm changes over the years. I could unwind the data using the changed rithms and go "back to the future". Once I was able to go back, I had to decide what to do? @SLU_Nick mentioned Yarbrough and Bartley teams. That really didn't help because they both played on 2 Crews teams...Crews 2014-15 and Crews 2015-16...these will be known going forward as C15 and C16. ...both bad teams but not the same. What to do?...Let's have a game between C15 & C16...again the space time continuum comes into play again as some of the same players are on both teams and are playing against themselves. But if the Delorean can do it so can the computer ...So we set the clock back to April 2016 and play the game at Chaifetz ..where both teams are the home team. C16 wins the game by 2. C16 turns out was the better team...While both C15 and C16 both had 11-21 records ...I had C15 with only 10 wins as 1 of the wins was not a D1 team. In addition C16 had a better SOS (B) than C16 (B- ). Further, C16 competed in an A10 conf that had 4 teams with 25+ wins....The C15 A-10 had only 2 teams with 25+ wins. So C16 with a tougher schedule , a better A-10 conf and 1 more win was the better team of the 2 bad Crews team. Overall grade C16...C-....C15 ..D. Next game was our current team against the C15 team.... Some other issues ....C15 played 31 games ...we have played only 19. ...Adjusting 3P shots for the 2 different time periods....etc. In this game, the Ford team wins by 3...btw the C16 game against Ford's current team ends in a tie...I didn't want to play the OT out ...The key piece of info was that the C16 team was equal to the present day team. Bottom line...The C15 team was worse than the present day team...however the season isn't over yet...I will leave it up to Nick if he wants to revisit this topic at the end of the season and see if the conclusion is different. We now return to 2024 using 1.21 gigawatts. I think you're reasonably on point here Wiz. My opinion is that the front line play and wing play on this team is much stronger, but we are weaker than C15 and C16 in guard play and especially PG play. Roby & Hines were much, much better than what we have now. However this F24 team has Thames, Parker, Jimerson, Hargrove, and Ezewiro. Those guys are better than the wings, frontline on C15 & C16. That we can compare the two shows how badly things have fallen off a cliff this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnkielBreakers Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 So, if we ask for anything, will you try to do it? For example, compare this team to all of Soderberg’s teams? Or, how about Soderberg vs Ford statistically, based on teams and outcomes!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I recently paid for the KenPom subscription and it's worth the $20. It won't run simulations like this, as far as I know but there's a lot of cool features. TheChosenOne likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, The Wiz said: We now return to 2024 using 1.21 gigawatts. Thanks for using my all-time favorite movie as a framing device for a really cool statistical comparison! The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Box and Won said: I fear that forcing a computer to run a simulation between these two absolute dogsh-- teams could just be the turning point at which the robots turn against humanity, the technological equivalent of conjuring up an evil spirit. Please be careful. This is the original plot of "Westworld" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Box and Won said: I fear that forcing a computer to run a simulation between these two absolute dogsh-- teams could just be the turning point at which the robots turn against humanity, the technological equivalent of conjuring up an evil spirit. Please be careful. This is how Skynet was created. Be careful! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, Lord Elrond said: Did you put a Flux-Transformer in a Delorean, get it up to 88 mph, and apply 1.21 Gigiwatts of electricity as well? I did...but the computer couldn't take the energy. I had to use a Windows 95 to get back. Lord Elrond likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Box and Won said: I fear that forcing a computer to run a simulation between these two absolute dogsh-- teams could just be the turning point at which the robots turn against humanity, the technological equivalent of conjuring up an evil spirit. Please be careful. I feel bad enough for the opposing teams having to scout us and watch tape of our games. What are Frank Martin's student managers supposed to think when asked to clip pieces of last night's disaster? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Box and Won said: I fear that forcing a computer to run a simulation between these two absolute dogsh-- teams could just be the turning point at which the robots turn against humanity, the technological equivalent of conjuring up an evil spirit. Please be careful. Yes, ...the fact that someone would ask about comparing one of the worst teams in recent history shows we are not in a good place. Up until the Crews era, I had the regular grading system and at the bottom was just the letter F. It was during Crew's tenure that I had to come up the F+ and F- to micro manage the bad numbers. We need to turn the ship around. The good news is that in this new age of NIL and transfers it can be done quickly. TheA_Bomb and Soderball like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, AnkielBreakers said: So, if we ask for anything, will you try to do it? For example, compare this team to all of Soderberg’s teams? Or, how about Soderberg vs Ford statistically, based on teams and outcomes!? Ha ha...I am The Wiz not a fairy god mother who can grant wishes. Unfortunately, there is no program to go back in time. You have to reprogram each team ...1 team at a time...a little time consuming....I have already granted 3 wishes...C15 , C16 and the current team...use your wishes wisely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 41 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Ha ha...I am The Wiz not a fairy god mother who can grant wishes. Unfortunately, there is no program to go back in time. You have to reprogram each team ...1 team at a time...a little time consuming....I have already granted 3 wishes...C15 , C16 and the current team...use your wishes wisely. -I am anticipating seening an F or two on our defensive grades in the analysis of the UMass game, not looking forward to it, just figuring that's where we are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -I am anticipating seening an F or two on our defensive grades in the analysis of the UMass game, not looking forward to it, just figuring that's where we are We're gonna need F- - in order to process just how bad the SLU defense is. The current grading system is inadequate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Dean Wormer, "Mr. Blutarsky... zero... point... zero. [GPA]" Fat Drunk and Stupid is no way to go through life son. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 23 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said: Dean Wormer, "Mr. Blutarsky... zero... point... zero. [GPA]" Fat Drunk and Stupid is no way to go through life son. You're starting to sound like my 61 year old dad, quoting Animal House. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said: You're starting to sound like my 61 year old dad, quoting Animal House. One of the greatest movies. Honestly it's one reason I could not wait to get to college. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Great great movie. I probably only quote Blazing Saddles more than Animal House. A comic masterpiece David King likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 45 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -I am anticipating seening an F or two on our defensive grades in the analysis of the UMass game, not looking forward to it, just figuring that's where we are The good news is the report card grades on defense held steady and didn't drop....the bad news is those grades are in a bad place now ...D- PPG, D- FG%, D+ 3P%, D Reb...The one stat that doesn't show up on the card but I have been talking about it for weeks is opponent TOs. After the Dav game we have fallen to F- 16th worst ITN for the season....In last night's game, Dav had 3 TOs...SLU is 2nd worst ITN on opp TOs in the last game played....ie #361. Interestingly, the one team that finished below us was WY a team we beat earlier in the year when the Cowboys turned the ball over 19 times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 33 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said: Dean Wormer, "Mr. Blutarsky... zero... point... zero. [GPA]" Fat Drunk and Stupid is no way to go through life son. Yet the second quote was directed at Flounder, if I recall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, juniorbill76 said: Yet the second quote was directed at Flounder, if I recall. Correct but it's more famous so included here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I've referred to one poster as Chip Diller from Animal House. "All is well!!!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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