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The Bills over BSU by 1


The Wiz
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This was a satisfying game...For the team, for the fans and for me as a forecaster.  For me, a successful call is when a good part of the game, especially the 2nd half, is hanging around my forecasted spread. That certainly was true this game.  It is a good call because it shows the computer model is right and the numbers are working. What was really gratifying,  was the "experts" ...in sheep fashion ...all picked BSU to win.  I ran the model a few times for this game using extra data because I knew it was going to be close and that everyone else was going to pick BSU...so I wanted to make sure I got it right.  At least for tonight, @joe_davola ..his post above  is correct....Nobody beats The Wiz...lol.

Let's get down to the numbers ....target slash....48/38/75...actual...46/ 46/ 88...that translates into 1 extra 3...4 extra FTs and 1 less 2ptM...equals an extra 5 pts...had I made the FT  line 80% that would have made the spread 3pts for the Bills...but we can't be greedy...let's take the win and get out of town.

In terms of the dynamics of the game , I had mentioned this was going to be a slow game for the purpose of disruption and destroying the rhythm . I had figured a low scoring game would be the way it would go...but once they started hot and we were cold that changed things and opened the game up. When the game was 11-0,  I knew we would come back. While some were thinking this was going to be a repeat of Memphis ...there was one big difference...BSU ain't no Memphis. In the end it was a slow and disruptive game...that was caused by a huge number of fouls.

Key to the game...While everyone knows the FTs won it for us ...I think the key was rebounding....had we used that key,  we could have opened the door to a blowout.  In the target forecast above, I had us winning the Reb battle by 6, instead we lost by 5 a difference of 11 rebs....most of those rebs were used for 2nd & 3rd shots. So if were are better than them....How did they stay neck and neck with us....they had an extra 13 FGA...or to quote the @joe_davola appliance Wiz..."How do we do it? We do it on volume" BSU had an extra 12 3PtA...yet only made 2 more 3s than us.  So in a sense we kept them in the game.

Ah... but then there were the FTs...coming into this game we were 9th ITN in FTM....That ranking should be going up...what a turn around from the last few years.

A concern I had going into this game were the TOs....target 11...actual 12...a nice drop from the 16 of the last 2 games....had we had another 4 TOs , this would have been a loss.....let's keep that 11 target going.

Yes a satisfying win. Overall it solidifies our A- ranking and moves us out of the NCAA cloud of funny business for bid selections and closer to a solid choice.

I would like to leave you with a pregame quote  to the TV announcers from the BSU coach....When they asked him about the poor free throw shooting this year ...his one word quote was  "fixed".....On my stat sheet I have 46% from the charity stripe....Hmm...maybe the coach was thinking of his dog.

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3 hours ago, Bills By 40 said:

By my math we're back up to 2nd in FTM, three behind first and double-digits ahead of anyone close behind. Most teams have played more games than us and first place had a 2 game lead going into last night. 

Who is the 1st place team in FTM and are we 1st in FT%?  Where are you finding this info? 

BTW, for the past 2-3 years we could have asked the same questions, except substitute Last where ever you see 1st.

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28 minutes ago, bauman said:

Who is the 1st place team in FTM and are we 1st in FT%?  Where are you finding this info? 

BTW, for the past 2-3 years we could have asked the same questions, except substitute Last where ever you see 1st.

Hours and hours of extensive research and dedication ;) (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1)

We are in 38th for FT% but with a sample size 1.5-2x or MORE that of anyone ahead of us...except for Portland, who's in first, and they're in 8th with 80.49%

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Just now, Bills By 40 said:

Hours and hours of extensive research and dedication ;) (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1)

We are in 38th for FT% but with a sample size 1.5-2x or MORE that of anyone ahead of us...except for Portland, who's in first, and they're in 8th with 80.49%

Then again - Portland has 1 more GP than us, and are only 2 FTM ahead. Expect that to level out as games go on!!

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38 minutes ago, bauman said:

Who is the 1st place team in FTM and are we 1st in FT%?  Where are you finding this info? 

BTW, for the past 2-3 years we could have asked the same questions, except substitute Last where ever you see 1st.

My stats are a little different....I think Stu and possibly Bills by 40 are using NCAA numbers which count Harris Stowe....which totals 8 games. That is fine  but I can't do that ....it will mess up my forecasting model....D1 teams only playing D1 teams. So unlike the NCAA and others who have 8 games...I only have 7.   

I will give you what I have and my figures are not raw...so it will not matter how many games anyone has played. I think these FT stats are a little more interesting too.  These are the tops ITN

FTM/gm

1. Wash St.   21.5

2. The Bills   21.4

 

FTA/ gm

1. Wash St.   28.2

2. The Bills   28.0

 

FTM/ 100 possession

1. Wash St.    29.651

2. The Bills    28.281

 

FTA/ Off play

1. Wash St.     33.5%

2. Colo            32.3%

3. The Bills      32.0

FT%.....We are 48th at 76.5% 

I think if you look at the numbers that matter all together and not compare apples and oranges...less than D1 teams  and comparing raw numbers using different game totals even if they are all D1....you come to the conclusion that we are 2nd ITN in FTs

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A wise man in an offseason thread predicted that free throw shooting was going to be a strength this year 😉  The free throw struggles of the past weren't so much team wide previously - it was mainly attributed to French and Goodwin, who took a big chunk of the Free throw attempts. New additions Nesbitt and Jones are plus free throw shooters, the weak link figured to be Okoro, but he has been a pleasant surprise so far at the line.

As for the result last night, I thought this was a likely loss when the schedule came out. A true road game and traveling way west, which is unusual for this program. And to get off to such a terrible start, it looked like it was over 5 minutes in. Ugly at times, but who cares, it's the result that matters. Definitely a character win. Find a way when you are not playing your best.  Ford was really fired up in the postgame interview, about the most excited I've ever heard him after a game.

Tough stretch ahead and hopefully we start gaining a little more consistency. Yuri needs to clean up the turnovers. Our combination of Linnsen & Okoro have been very good for the most part and I think Franco can trend up as the season moves along after sitting out all of last year and coming back from an injury. I also expect Nesbitt to become more consistent as the season goes along, as he gains more experience. I recall Kwamain really making big strides over the second half of his freshman season and I hope JN makes the same progression as he gains experience. Fred has stepped up and been a solid role player and Jones has been a key contributor.

BIG stretch of five games coming up - not an easy one in the bunch but four at home and one neutral site game - great opportunity to build up the resume. Last night was a VERY important first step.

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18 hours ago, ACE said:

A wise man in an offseason thread predicted that free throw shooting was going to be a strength this year 😉  The free throw struggles of the past weren't so much team wide previously - it was mainly attributed to French and Goodwin, who took a big chunk of the Free throw attempts. New additions Nesbitt and Jones are plus free throw shooters, the weak link figured to be Okoro, but he has been a pleasant surprise so far at the line.

I expected FT shooting to be much improved with French & Goodwin gone.  However, I did not foresee FT shooting being as strong as it is.  Biggest unforeseen factors leading to great FT shooting are:

  1. As you mentioned, Okoro's strong FT shooting instead of poor FT shooting.  I expected him to be an improvement over French, but still bad.  He's been really good so far.
  2. Jimerson getting to the line way more often.  GJ is our best FT shooter (possibly outside of DeAndre Jones).  The more he gets to the line, the better our team FT shooting will look.
  3. Yuri's continued improvement as a FT shooter.  He wasn't very good his freshman year (54%) some of that could be attributed to thumb injuries.  He improved to 67% last season.  He's shooting 85% so far this season which is great.

Pretty awesome that we have 3 players who are career 83% or better FT shooters (Jimerson 86%, Jones 83%, and Rashad Williams 83%) to go along with 2 guys hitting at 80% or better this season Yuri at 85% and Linssen at 81%.  We could close with a 5 man lineup that we could reasonably expect to shoot 80% or better.

In case anymore is worried about guys over performing their career numbers regressing and our team totals regressing too, Thatch has taken the 5th most FTs this year and is shooting (59%) below his career average (68%) and well below his mark last year (82%).  Hargrove has only taken 5 FTs so far this season, but is only hitting 40% compared to 64% for his career.

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44 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

I expected FT shooting to be much improved with French & Goodwin gone.  However, I did not foresee FT shooting being as strong as it is.  Biggest unforeseen factors leading to great FT shooting are:

  1. As you mentioned, Okoro's strong FT shooting instead of poor FT shooting.  I expected him to be an improvement over French, but still bad.  He's been really good so far.
  2. Jimerson getting to the line way more often.  GJ is our best FT shooter (possibly outside of DeAndre Jones).  The more he gets to the line, the better our team FT shooting will look.
  3. Yuri's continued improvement as a FT shooter.  He wasn't very good his freshman year (54%) some of that could be attributed to thumb injuries.  He improved to 67% last season.  He's shooting 85% so far this season which is great.

Pretty awesome that we have 3 players who are career 83% or better FT shooters (Jimerson 86%, Jones 83%, and Rashad Williams 83%) to go along with 2 guys hitting at 80% or better this season Yuri at 85% and Linssen at 81%.  We could close with a 5 man lineup that we could reasonably expect to shoot 80% or better.

In case anymore is worried about guys over performing their career numbers regressing and our team totals regressing too, Thatch has taken the 5th most FTs this year and is shooting (59%) below his career average (68%) and well below his mark last year (82%).  Hargrove has only taken 5 FTs so far this season, but is only hitting 40% compared to 64% for his career.

Your point is valid, but Hargrove is 3 of 7 for 42.9%.

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1 hour ago, RUBillsFan said:

I expected FT shooting to be much improved with French & Goodwin gone.  However, I did not foresee FT shooting being as strong as it is.  Biggest unforeseen factors leading to great FT shooting are:

  1. As you mentioned, Okoro's strong FT shooting instead of poor FT shooting.  I expected him to be an improvement over French, but still bad.  He's been really good so far.
  2. Jimerson getting to the line way more often.  GJ is our best FT shooter (possibly outside of DeAndre Jones).  The more he gets to the line, the better our team FT shooting will look.
  3. Yuri's continued improvement as a FT shooter.  He wasn't very good his freshman year (54%) some of that could be attributed to thumb injuries.  He improved to 67% last season.  He's shooting 85% so far this season which is great.

Pretty awesome that we have 3 players who are career 83% or better FT shooters (Jimerson 86%, Jones 83%, and Rashad Williams 83%) to go along with 2 guys hitting at 80% or better this season Yuri at 85% and Linssen at 81%.  We could close with a 5 man lineup that we could reasonably expect to shoot 80% or better.

In case anymore is worried about guys over performing their career numbers regressing and our team totals regressing too, Thatch has taken the 5th most FTs this year and is shooting (59%) below his career average (68%) and well below his mark last year (82%).  Hargrove has only taken 5 FTs so far this season, but is only hitting 40% compared to 64% for his career.

And important to remember we're doing this without Perkins, who figured to get to the line a lot and make about 80% of them.

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On 12/1/2021 at 2:36 PM, Bills By 40 said:

Hours and hours of extensive research and dedication ;) (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1)

We are in 38th for FT% but with a sample size 1.5-2x or MORE that of anyone ahead of us...except for Portland, who's in first, and they're in 8th with 80.49%

Thanks for the reply and link.

Now you need to sit down and rest for many, many hours to recover from your extensive time researching in such a dedicated manner.   😁🤣

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4 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

I expected FT shooting to be much improved with French & Goodwin gone.  However, I did not foresee FT shooting being as strong as it is.  Biggest unforeseen factors leading to great FT shooting are:

  1. As you mentioned, Okoro's strong FT shooting instead of poor FT shooting.  I expected him to be an improvement over French, but still bad.  He's been really good so far.
  2. Jimerson getting to the line way more often.  GJ is our best FT shooter (possibly outside of DeAndre Jones).  The more he gets to the line, the better our team FT shooting will look.
  3. Yuri's continued improvement as a FT shooter.  He wasn't very good his freshman year (54%) some of that could be attributed to thumb injuries.  He improved to 67% last season.  He's shooting 85% so far this season which is great.

Pretty awesome that we have 3 players who are career 83% or better FT shooters (Jimerson 86%, Jones 83%, and Rashad Williams 83%) to go along with 2 guys hitting at 80% or better this season Yuri at 85% and Linssen at 81%.  We could close with a 5 man lineup that we could reasonably expect to shoot 80% or better.

In case anymore is worried about guys over performing their career numbers regressing and our team totals regressing too, Thatch has taken the 5th most FTs this year and is shooting (59%) below his career average (68%) and well below his mark last year (82%).  Hargrove has only taken 5 FTs so far this season, but is only hitting 40% compared to 64% for his career.

With regard to having a 5-man team at the end of games who can all shoot 80%+ from the FT line. you can add one more player to that possible grouping.  Lorentsson shot 85% last year according to the Official SLU website (not to mention 45% from the arc.

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3 minutes ago, bauman said:

With regard to having a 5-man team at the end of games who can all shoot 80%+ from the FT line. you can add one more player to that possible grouping.  Lorentsson shot 85% last year according to the Official SLU website (not to mention 45% from the arc.

That seems pointless since he doesn’t play.

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15 minutes ago, BilliesBy40 said:

That seems pointless since he doesn’t play.

and considering how physically weak he is and without a doubt the worst on the ball defender on the team, he wont ever play meaningful minutes this season.  

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