The Bills over LSU by 1

[The Wiz]

And now the real season starts....Real as in full throttle.  We are going from an F team (SIU-e) to an A team (LSU).  Last night's game with LSU, while a bit closer than expected was within the window of normalcy.  The fact that after the game both SIU-e and LSU's grades were the same confirmed that not much had changed.

We are still a B+ team and we are going up against an A team.  So what does this mean?  It means we will have to bring our A game.  What does our A game look like? It looks like Wed night against SIU-e. If we do that again we win. But you say that LSU is a much tougher team. True. But on Wed , we played a bit sloppy (especially in the 2nd half). If we clean that up, we can make up the difference of the extra challenge that LSU presents.

Before we take a look at the report card let us realize that we are not looking at a full set of data.  Less than half (48.5%) of the teams in D1 have played a game. By the time we play our next game (Ark-PB on Dec 5)  the report card will be up to speed. The purpose of the report card at this point will be to look for trends.

So let's see what we are dealing with here...

.............................SLU..........................LSU...........................................................SLU...................................LSU

.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................B...........................B+...............................................................A-.....................................D

FG%.........................C...........................B................................................................C.......................................F

3Pt%........................A-...........................A..............................................................A-......................................F-

FT%.........................B... .........................A-.. .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................C+...........................D...............................................................B......................................B

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Y Collins....44th.................Watford....4th

Rebs...Goodwin....28th

Stls......Y Collins ...41st...................Watford....41st

FG%......Perkins....93rd.....................Days....37th

PPG.......Perkins...45th.....................Thomas...13th....Days...27th

 

Injury report...

French....11/27....Concussion...Questionable.....Remains to be seen whether he will pass the protocol before the game.

Thatch....11/26....Undisclosed...Questionable....He left the last game with an unspecified injury and it is unknown if he will play Sat....Edit...11/27 out for Sat with sprained knee

J Bell.........11/26........Foot...........Questionable.....Unclear if he will play Sat.

Manning (LSU).........Foot............Questionable.....uncertain whether he will play Sat.

 

Report card notes....On offense LSU has a slight edge....On defense we have a big edge. If our D can neutralize their Off enough we win. Like what I am seeing on FTs...Looks like we will climb out of the FT basement this year. Also, while it is still early, it seems our offense is improved too.

 

WWN2D2W (for the newbies.....What We Need to Do to Win)....Play D...LSU is not use to seeing D ...even a low team like SIU-e bothered them enough to keep the game close. We should be able to put extra pressure on them.  And who should we pressure? Days and Thomas.....54% of the LSU offense....more specifically 3 P%....Those 2 together shot 57% (8-14) from the arc....unacceptable...we need to bring both of them down to the 30%s  and keep them below 20 pts. ...On Rebs we need to beat them on the boards....out rebound them by 3....TO target 11.

Bottom line ...If this isn't our toughest game of the year then it will be one of our toughest.  This will be a hard fought game with the lead changing hands a number of times. Depth may become a factor either because of fouls, fatigue  or possible OT.....Playoff basketball...   If we play to our potential....ie  a decent shooting night....minimum..47/40/ 70+...no open shots for their 2 gunners....I think this game is ours for the taking.....But we will have to take it ...they will not give it to us.

Go Bills

[Old guy]

I think we are going to win this one with less difficulty than most people think. Yes, it is a major game for us and we will not be playing French or Thatch, but I think we may see Bell playing, most likely not for long.

Judging by the results LSU got against SIUE, I think our defense can do a job on them. We will see.

[slufanskip]

For what it's worth if you take away Andre L, Markhi, and Russell from the Bills stats ... so basically only counting the top 8 plus Has we were 26/50 from the field and 8/15 from the 3. So yes we played a bit sloppy in the 2nd half but of the 100 2nd half minutes about 40% of those were Frosh and walk on's. I suspect the top 8 plus Has will generally get them majority of minutes except for blow outs like this. 

[Reinert310]

Has has been doing cardio the past couple days. I’d bet (a small amount of) money he’s in the starting lineup tomorrow.

[JGR6396]

Vegas has Bills as a 2.5 point favorite 

[almaman]

4 minutes ago, JGR6396 said:

Vegas has Bills as a 2.5 point favorite 

been waiting for that thanks. I never bet but I'd take us in this one in a heartbeat.

[billikenfan05]

Has will play, I just don't see any reality where he doesn't.

[Old guy]

Here is the stats comparison for SLU and LSU playing against SIUE. Our defensive stats are much better than theirs, and the offensive stats are mixed in some measurements our were better than theirs. I know games are not decided by stats, but these look pretty favorable to me.

Offensive Stat Comparison

Stat	LSU	SLU
Points/Game	94.0	89.0
Avg Score Margin	+13.0	+37.0
Assists/Game	19.0	17.0
Total Rebounds/Gm	32.0	40.0
Effective FG %	62.1%	54.1%
Off Rebound %	33.3%	36.4%
FTA/FGA	0.448	0.492
Turnover %	11.2%	15.9%

Defensive Stat Comparison

Stat	LSU	SLU
Opp Points/Game	81.0	52.0
Opp Effective FG %	62.3%	42.9%
Off Rebounds/Gm	10.0	12.0
Def Rebounds/Gm	20.0	26.0
Blocks/Game	1.0	0.0
Steals/Game	10.0	13.0
Personal Fouls/Gm	17.0	13.0

[BilliesBy40]

1 hour ago, billikenfan05 said:

Has will play, I just don't see any reality where he doesn't.

Concussion protocol isn’t within his control. It isn’t a matter of playing through it if he’s not ready. Let’s hope he’s cleared.

[jonny karate]

1 hour ago, billikenfan05 said:

Has will play, I just don't see any reality where he doesn't.

I agree french is doing everything he can to take on Shaqs son

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, BilliesBy40 said:

Concussion protocol isn’t within his control. It isn’t a matter of playing through it if he’s not ready. Let’s hope he’s cleared.

Exactly. The medical staff has control of the situation. He needs to be cleared first. 

[dlarry]

18 hours ago, Old guy said:

I think we are going to win this one with less difficulty than most people think. Yes, it is a major game for us and we will not be playing French or Thatch, but I think we may see Bell playing, most likely not for long.

Judging by the results LSU got against SIUE, I think our defense can do a job on them. We will see.

You can’t look at the score from their game against SIUE and take anything away from it.

They were up 26-4 at one point and 30-7 half way into the first. They took their foot of the gas and toyed with the Cougars for 30 minutes.

[HoosierPal]

So Wiz who ya got in the second game, the Cougars or the Eutectics?

[Reinert310]

28 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

So Wiz who ya got in the second game, the Cougars or the Eutectics?

I would love an in-depth breakdown of the Eutectics season using the Wiz’s model. Would be AWESOME

[The Wiz]

36 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

So Wiz who ya got in the second game, the Cougars or the Eutectics?

Better go with the Cougars....They will make the  Eutectics take the medicine.

[The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, Reinert310 said:

I would love an in-depth breakdown of the Eutectics season using the Wiz’s model. Would be AWESOME

Sorry but the Euts are not a Div 1 team, so no spread.  Rest assured though the Cougars will grind them down , like a bad pill.

[HoosierPal]

Cougars on cruise control v the Eutectics.  Have them doubled with 5 to go. 

[White Pelican]

Sounds like they're taking a double dose.

[The Wiz]

Well that went nicely...and pretty close to script.

Let's see how they did....

What We Need to Do to Win.....We should be able to put extra pressure on them.  And who should we pressure? Days and Thomas.....54% of the LSU offense....more specifically 3 P%....Those 2 together shot 57% (8-14) from the arc....unacceptable...we need to bring both of them down to the 30%s  and keep them below 20 pts

Mission accomplished...dropped overall from 54% to 42% of the overall offense....check....dropped from 57% to 27%from 3P range....check...keep them both below a combined total of  40pts (20 pts  each)...actual total 29pts....check.....Days went 0-5 from the arc. Good D.....

out rebound them by 3....out rebounded them by 8.....check

TO target 11....actual...10......10 is champion play.

Bottom line...This will be a hard fought game with the lead changing hands a number of times....Changed lead 5 times... tied 3 times.

 Depth may become a factor either because of fouls, fatigue  or possible OT....Depth was a factor ...missing 2 players plus Yuri & Marten with 4 fouls....and yes the shadow of OT was nearby. Thank god we didn't have to do that.

Playoff basketball....Yes indeed

a decent shooting night....minimum..47/40/ 70+....actual 55/ 42/ 93.....Fabulous numbers.  To understand the significance of these numbers let's look at it this way....Had we shot FTs  at last year's rate ....we miss 5 more shots and lose....had we shot 3s at last year's rate, we miss 2 more 3s and lose....had we shot at last years FG% rate...we miss 7 more shots and lose....Grand total of 21 pts missing using last year's numbers.  And again this was against a good team .

I think this game is ours for the taking.....But we will have to take it......It was ....and we did

Tip o' the cap to Perkins ...a money player ....coming up big in a big game....How big....check this slash...63 /50/100...10-18/ 4-8/ 8-8....32pts...3 reb ...5 asst...no TOs

Also Goodwin comes in with another double double ...11-11 and a good night for Jimerson...55/44/na...16pts ...and finally a great effort by Jacobs with 13pts...100/100/100

A real team effort

One last thing....We  knew this team was good coming in to the season...what we didn't know was.... were they a great team? While it is still too early for a definitive answer for the season....they showed greatness today.  When LSU made their run in the 2nd half, the Bills bent but they didn't break. They had that ....we've got this attitude. AND made big plays when it counted.  If that inner strength continues , the team will go far.

"It ain't bragging , if you can do it"....Satchel Paige

 

 

 

 

[RUBillsFan]

Wiz, did your 1 point spread assume French was playing or at least assume me might play?

If so, does winning by 4 without French give us a bigger boost than we otherwise would have gotten?

[The Wiz]

12 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Wiz, did your 1 point spread assume French was playing or at least assume me might play?

If so, does winning by 4 without French give us a bigger boost than we otherwise would have gotten?

Since he did not play in the SIU-e game and was questionable for this game his impact was minimized for this game. When he returns his effect will be figured in ...not just his addition but the diminished effect of other players.  The team is like a great big moving blob that is  constantly changing. I am just here to track it.