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9 minutes ago, courtside said:

The White House has mainly been using the death model from the University of Washington in meetings and when giving briefings.

It can and does change daily to adapt to circumstances. But as of yesterday they project approx. 82,000 U S. deaths by August if and only if all 50 states shut down by next week and stay at home policies extend until June 1st. 

The hopeful assumption is that worst cases have access to treatment and supplies (which has been and is projected to be a concern) That is why it is a death model and not a case model.

 

 

Damn, this one is going to get Keith Richards.

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When you see everything as Trump vs. the world, you assume that anything that is bad for Trump is good for those who didn't vote for him and don't support him. Big Bill Fan clearly thinks this way and

Well courtside, I just hope and pray you get it, progress all the way into ventilation, and gracefully become one more death statistic among the 80+% who don't make it out of ventilation. This will al

I made an exception to read your post above after placing you in the ignore list. You finally admit that you are not capable of producing anything close to a medically valid argument. You admit t

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2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

well then we are in agreement since president trump is the greatest president since Lincoln.

MAGA 2020

Shot at James Garfield out of nowhere!

It wasn’t his fault he was shot.

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13 minutes ago, courtside said:

The White House has mainly been using the death model from the University of Washington in meetings and when giving briefings.

It can and does change daily to adapt to circumstances. But as of yesterday they project approx. 82,000 U S. deaths by August if and only if all 50 states shut down by next week and stay at home policies extend until June 1st. 

The hopeful assumption is that worst cases have access to treatment and supplies (which has been and is projected to be a concern) That is why it is a death model and not a case model. .....How different would the models look if readiness and response was better the first two months.

 

 

I cannot say for certain but I believe we would have had a better shot at having the curve look like Korea’s.  Both countries had their 1st case January 20th.  I am sure the populations density in Korea help them (blue font)

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17 minutes ago, BIG BILL FAN said:

You are seriously judging someone’s credibility and intelligence by his physical appearance??? Pretty disgusting practice I would say... is this another example of a tolerant, caring liberal?

It was sarcasm. Not judging the guy by his picture, but he is an interesting looking character. 

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3 hours ago, rgbilliken said:

My understanding is that this is exactly the FDA’s line of thinking. They are not saying that the drugs cited have been proven effective against COVID-19. They see approval for COVID-19 treatment as a low-risk/high-reward option. So they’re saying we’ve already determined these drugs are safe; go ahead and prescribe them for COVID-19 because if it works it will be worth it.

 

See below for excerpts of the  actual letter.

"Based upon limited in-vitro and anecdotal clinical data in case series, chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate are currently recommended for treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in several countries, and a number of national guidelines report incorporating recommendations regarding use of chloroquine phosphate or hydroxychloroquine sulfate in the setting of COVID-19."

and

1.The SARS-CoV-2 can cause a serious or life-threatening disease or condition, including severe respiratory illness, to humans infected by this virus;

2.Based on the totality of scientific evidence available to FDA, it is reasonable to believe that chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate may be effective in treating COVID-19, and that, when used under the conditions described in this authorization, the known and potential benefits of chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate when used to treat COVID-19 outweigh the known and potential risks of such products; and

3.There is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the emergency use of chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate for the treatment of COVID-19.

 

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38 minutes ago, Basketbill said:

I  understand that the assumptions are a guess, and it is reasonable to understand that in this type of rapidly changing environment the assumptions are commonly inaccurate.  However, it seems to be a good  a estimation of “what the hell do we need to prepare for” in a worst case scenario.  I am not sure what you mean by “undocumented deaths”.   Relying on the Chinese data, is problematic as there data does not appear believable, unless their ability for strict stay at home orders (which apparently was policed with electronic monitoring) is much better than our stay at home orders with loopholes for many...

 

The updated study is just as grim.  ICU availability unfortunately is not the best and timeliest trigger toggling on an off social restrictions.   Below is the second Paper from NF., and their estimation data for every country with mitigation strategies.   Thanks god for computers.

 

Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdfUnavailable Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-unmitigated-mitigated-suppression-scenarios.numbersUnavailable

Both files are marked "unavailable"

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11 minutes ago, Old guy said:

 

See below for excerpts of the  actual letter.

"Based upon limited in-vitro and anecdotal clinical data in case series, chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate are currently recommended for treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in several countries, and a number of national guidelines report incorporating recommendations regarding use of chloroquine phosphate or hydroxychloroquine sulfate in the setting of COVID-19."

and

1.The SARS-CoV-2 can cause a serious or life-threatening disease or condition, including severe respiratory illness, to humans infected by this virus;

2.Based on the totality of scientific evidence available to FDA, it is reasonable to believe that chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate may be effective in treating COVID-19, and that, when used under the conditions described in this authorization, the known and potential benefits of chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate when used to treat COVID-19 outweigh the known and potential risks of such products; and

3.There is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the emergency use of chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate for the treatment of COVID-19.

 

Yes, exactly. They said there is reasonable but limited anecdotal evidence to show that this treatment may work and that since it’s an emergency situation it’s worth trying. This is exactly what I stated earlier. The letter goes on to state that the risk-benefit analysis on whether to continue this will continue to change as more results come in. 

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1 minute ago, rgbilliken said:

Yes, exactly. They said there is reasonable but limited anecdotal evidence to show that this treatment may work and that since it’s an emergency situation it’s worth trying. This is exactly what I stated earlier. The letter goes on to state that the risk-benefit analysis on whether to continue this will continue to change as more results come in. 

The FDA approves drugs, not you. 

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50 minutes ago, rgbilliken said:

Yes, exactly. They said there is reasonable but limited anecdotal evidence to show that this treatment may work and that since it’s an emergency situation it’s worth trying. This is exactly what I stated earlier. The letter goes on to state that the risk-benefit analysis on whether to continue this will continue to change as more results come in. 

You also ignored the fact that multiple other countries have already approved the use of the drug against Covid. This is strong evidence in and of itself. and true you do not approve drugs and have absolutely no part in any deliberations the FDA may have about the approval. What you are giving is just your opinion, nothing else.

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1 minute ago, Old guy said:

You also ignored the fact that multiple other countries have already approved the use of the drug against Covid. This is strong evidence in and of itself. and true you do not approve drugs and have absolutely no part in any deliberations the FDA may have about the approval. What you are giving is just your opinion, nothing else.

I thought your Mickey Pearson bit was funny but you are just being an ass 

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<It's vicious. >

like those mean libtards' questions at the Rallies masquerading as press conferences? I don't miss the hitler youth jamborees but the helicopters from his quickie PC days drowning out the senile psychopath I do kind of miss.

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10 minutes ago, Old guy said:

You also ignored the fact that multiple other countries have already approved the use of the drug against Covid. This is strong evidence in and of itself. and true you do not approve drugs and have absolutely no part in any deliberations the FDA may have about the approval. What you are giving is just your opinion, nothing else.

And you're only giving your opinion and nothing else. Stop being a jerk to people who are respectfully offering input/thoughts.  

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27 minutes ago, Old guy said:

You also ignored the fact that multiple other countries have already approved the use of the drug against Covid. This is strong evidence in and of itself. and true you do not approve drugs and have absolutely no part in any deliberations the FDA may have about the approval. What you are giving is just your opinion, nothing else.

Other countries’ approval is not evidence. Evidence is evidence. Unless other countries have some data not mentioned before, they are looking at the same studies we are and saying it’s worth a shot. As for you continually notifying me that I don’t have a say in drug approval...do you... think I don’t know that? I’m obviously offering my opinion. Everyone on this board is. I was not aware that you need to be an FDA official to have an opinion on the results of a study done in France. I’ll make note of that for future reference. 
The original opinion I shared was pretty mild and noncommittal (basically just said I’m not an expert in infectious disease but do have knowledge in pharmaceutical research and think this is good but needs more study), which is part of what makes your responses so hilarious. You’ve repeatedly condescended to me and made unwarranted personal digs at me.  I don’t know why you continue to bend over to try to insult me or what it is about me that seems to get under your skin so much, but rest assured that I’m not bothered. I have, however, reached my limit on respectfully responding to you, so continue to insult me all you want, but I won’t reply. I don’t want to make myself look like an @sshole. 

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Just going to throw this out there— my patients taking hydroxychloroquine long term for maintenance of their rheumatoid arthritis have been unable to get the medication because of the rush to hoard it, and other patients have emergency supplies of it because of their podiatrist brother writing prescriptions for them “just in case.”  
also, the issue I had with Trump’s initial claims about it was not that there were promising signs that it could be effective for treatment, but he stated that the FDA has approved it for that indication. Which led to the aforementioned shortage/hoarding situation. 
(Please don’t challenge my credentials. Instead let’s see PAYSTUBS!)
 

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49 minutes ago, bills10 said:

Just going to throw this out there— my patients taking hydroxychloroquine long term for maintenance of their rheumatoid arthritis have been unable to get the medication because of the rush to hoard it, and other patients have emergency supplies of it because of their podiatrist brother writing prescriptions for them “just in case.”  
also, the issue I had with Trump’s initial claims about it was not that there were promising signs that it could be effective for treatment, but he stated that the FDA has approved it for that indication. Which led to the aforementioned shortage/hoarding situation. 
(Please don’t challenge my credentials. Instead let’s see PAYSTUBS!)
 

Should an investigation into the prescribing practices of podiatrists be opened? Are they the driving force in hydroxychloroquine shortage? Could not be the MD brother doing such a thing,must be a podiatrist. get the feds on them

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2 hours ago, moytoy12 said:

And you're only giving your opinion and nothing else. Stop being a jerk to people who are respectfully offering input/thoughts.  

Too funny, you lecturing people about being respectful...

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27 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

The podiatrists are too busy trying to gain telehealth credentialing to be prescribing wheelbarrows of chloroquinine.

Haha patient told me brothers profession but could have been tongue in cheek

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