Can SLU finish in top 4 of A10?

[TheA_Bomb]

I'm riding the roller-coaster ride of this Billiken season...I love Rick I hate em'.....this team stinks....this team is great.....

Well right now I'm up and just hoping for that goal that has alluded us these long 9 years, a NCAA tourney bid. The only way we're getting in is an automatic bid (as far as I know). Anyway, winning 3 in 3 days is a lot easier than 4 games in 4 days so our best shot is to finish in the top 4 and get a first round bye. Can it be done?

The following is from realtimerpi.com

Here is our competition

Temple currently tied for 2nd at 8-2 projected to be 14-2 last 4 of 6 games on the road including at SLU

X currently tied for 2nd at 8-2 projected to be 13-3 with last 3 of 6 games on the road including at SLU

URI currently 4th 7-4 projected to be 1-5 with 3 of 5 games on the road including at SLU

Richmond currently 1st projected to be 12-4 with 2 of 5 remaining games on the road

Dayton currently 5th 6-4 projected to be 10-6 with 3 of 6 remaining on the road including SLU at home

Charlotte currently 2nd projected 13-3 with 2 of 6 remaining on the road

SLU currently 3rd at 7-3 projected 10-6 with 2 of 6 remaining on the road final games URI, at UMASS, X, Duq, Temple and at Dayton

IF SLU wins all remaining games except for the Dayton game here is the conference seedings if all other projections hold up:

1. UNCC 13-3

2. Temple 13-3

3. Richmond 12-4

4. SLU 12-4

5. X 12-4

6. URI 11-5

7. Dayton 10-6

Can't slip up against URI or X for sure. We have shot but it won't be easy. Of course it could all fall apart or some other teams could limp to the tourney and open it up for us. Temple's 4 of 6 road games are against SLU, LaSalle, SJU, and SBU so they only leave Philly twice and only one of those teams has a winning record. UNCC has X, URI, Richmond left which won't be too easy. We have the toughest schedule but it is mostly at home. Gotta' win and it will work out.

[kshoe]

Anyway, winning 3 in 3 days is a lot easier than 4 games in 4 days so our best shot is to finish in the top 4 and get a first round bye. Can it be done?

With the new format, nobody has to win 4 in 4 days. Even if we don't finish in the top 4 we'll get a home game on Tuesday against one of the lower seeds. I'd hope we can take care of business there and from then its 3 games in 3 days just like everyone else.

[DeSmetBilliken]

I'm riding the roller-coaster ride of this Billiken season...I love Rick I hate em'.....this team stinks....this team is great.....

Well right now I'm up and just hoping for that goal that has alluded us these long 9 years, a NCAA tourney bid. The only way we're getting in is an automatic bid (as far as I know). Anyway, winning 3 in 3 days is a lot easier than 4 games in 4 days so our best shot is to finish in the top 4 and get a first round bye. Can it be done?

The following is from realtimerpi.com

Here is our competition

Temple currently tied for 2nd at 8-2 projected to be 14-2 last 4 of 6 games on the road including at SLU

X currently tied for 2nd at 8-2 projected to be 13-3 with last 3 of 6 games on the road including at SLU

URI currently 4th 7-4 projected to be 1-5 with 3 of 5 games on the road including at SLU

Richmond currently 1st projected to be 12-4 with 2 of 5 remaining games on the road

Dayton currently 5th 6-4 projected to be 10-6 with 3 of 6 remaining on the road including SLU at home

Charlotte currently 2nd projected 13-3 with 2 of 6 remaining on the road

SLU currently 3rd at 7-3 projected 10-6 with 2 of 6 remaining on the road final games URI, at UMASS, X, Duq, Temple and at Dayton

IF SLU wins all remaining games except for the Dayton game here is the conference seedings if all other projections hold up:

1. UNCC 13-3

2. Temple 13-3

3. Richmond 12-4

4. SLU 12-4

5. X 12-4

6. URI 11-5

7. Dayton 10-6

Can't slip up against URI or X for sure. We have shot but it won't be easy. Of course it could all fall apart or some other teams could limp to the tourney and open it up for us. Temple's 4 of 6 road games are against SLU, LaSalle, SJU, and SBU so they only leave Philly twice and only one of those teams has a winning record. UNCC has X, URI, Richmond left which won't be too easy. We have the toughest schedule but it is mostly at home. Gotta' win and it will work out.

Actually, no team finishing outside the top 4 will need to win 4 games in 4 days. If we finish in the 5-8 range (which I'd say is likely), we get a home game for the first round of the conference tournament on March 9 (a Tuesday). The second round of games in Atlantic City don't begin until March 12 (a Friday), so it would be a case of winning a game, getting 2 days off to travel to Atlantic City, then having to win 3 games in 3 days. I would think that it would make it easier for a team in the 5-7 range (assuming the standings generally remain the way they are now with 6 or 7 teams with good records) to come away with the conference tourney championship than in previous years, as the 4 wins in 4 days is no longer necessary.

[RUBillsFan]

The only way we're getting in is an automatic bid (as far as I know).

Not entirely true. It is very unlikely, but if SLU wins out this site says we'll get an at large.

http://www.nitology.com/a10/021110.shtml

Those numbers are from before the Dayton game, so that 0.01% chance at an at large bid has probably increased very slightly. SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE.

Obviously SLU winning out is very unlikely and even if they did they would probably still have to make it to the A10 finals to be considered for an at large (that would put tham at 24-9 overall, 13-3 in A10, 2-1 in the A10 tourney).

Anyways very unlikely, but then again winning it all in AC is unlikely as well.

Being more realistic I hope SLU can get into position for an NIT bid. That site says an 11-5 finish in the A-10 is needed which means we can only drop the game at Dayton and one to either X or Temple. I'm more optimistic, I think a 10-6 finish and 2 wins in the A10 tournament gets us into the NIT.

[Box and Won]

Those numbers are from before the Dayton game, so that 0.01% chance at an at large bid has probably increased very slightly. SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE.

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[RUBillsFan]

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Well I got the quote wrong, but thanks for the video, Box.

[Duff Man]

I'm as excited as anyone following the comeback against Dayton, but in the grand scheme of things it's really just 1 win - at home - against a team/coach who loses here on a regular basis.

FT shooting as a whole is still the team's biggest liability at this point. 60.4% just isn't going to get it done.

WR needs to adjust to the increased quality/speed of competition. When he gets the ball, he needs to either make an immediate move to the basket or kick out to a guard. Hakeem Olajuwon he is not.

JS needs to stop picking up ticky-tack over the back fouls on the offensive glass. Pick your spots young jedi.

If they can improve in these areas over the last 6 games, while continuing to hit a good number of their open 3s, then they'll be in a position to make some noise in AC.

[bills10]

I was thinking this same thing, but honestly it is not just one win. This one win has been the 4th in a four game win streak, of which 2 were on the road. This win probably would not have felt so good if it was just an isolated upset, but it really feels like our Bills are rolling now!

[jjray]

Winning out is not realistic. SLU v. Dayton at Dayton. They will physically beat on us and the refs will swallow the whistle. We just don't have the horses to play in one of those Big 10 style games. Plus, we play so many quality opponents to close out the season that we can't expect our young team to come out and play to the best of their ability each night. They are going to poop the sheets somewhere along the line. I'd be the happiest guy to be wrong but my realistic expectations are to finish strong, get deep into the A10 tourney and then hope the NIT selection committee views us favorably based on the 2nd half finish.

[slufanskip]

I'd prefer to worry about the next game. Kenpom has us losing with a 49% chance to win, which makes it basically a toss up. If I remember correctly about two weeks ago we were given about a 30% chance to win. This team really does need to not get ahead of itself and win each game as it comes. If we do that, everything else will fall into place.

[Duff Man]

I was thinking this same thing, but honestly it is not just one win. This one win has been the 4th in a four game win streak, of which 2 were on the road. This win probably would not have felt so good if it was just an isolated upset, but it really feels like our Bills are rolling now!

No doubt it was a major gut check - as was the Richmond game - but let's take a close look at that 4-game streak...

2 point home win over St Bonaventure (RPI 195)

3 point road win over La Salle (RPI 116)

4 point road win over St Joes (RPI 186)

3 point double OT home win over Dayton (RPI 30)

Previous to this, they let a game slip away at GW (RPI 133) and got smoked at Richmond (RPI 27).

At this point, they are still a very flawed basketball team. When the open 3-pointers are dropping, they are good enough to play with anyone at home, yet they are still capable of losing to anyone on the road. Improved FT shooting and maturity from their low post players are what they to consistently win.

[brianstl]

I think we win at Dayton. We would have won the game here by five or more if we wouldn't have been stuck in Philly for a couple of extra days. We were not properly prepared for the game because of it and it show in the first half. We were not sharp at all. Over the final thirty minutes of play we outscored Dayton by 17.

[joe_davola]

I think we win at Dayton. We would have won the game here by five or more if we wouldn't have been stuck in Philly for a couple of extra days. We were not properly prepared for the game because of it and it show in the first half. We were not sharp at all. Over the final thirty minutes of play we outscored Dayton by 17.

Hope you are right, but I am concerned about this one and already chalked it up as a loss...but I love to be proven wrong! I know it is going to be an all out war though. Looking forward to watching that one. Looking forward to these upcoming home games even more.

[NH]

I think we win at Dayton. We would have won the game here by five or more if we wouldn't have been stuck in Philly for a couple of extra days. We were not properly prepared for the game because of it and it show in the first half. We were not sharp at all. Over the final thirty minutes of play we outscored Dayton by 17.

I think we CAN win at Dayton, but they play much, much better at home (as Im sure you already knew). I think this wednesday's game is a very, very important opportunity for SLU and a win would be huge towards how we finish the season.

[DirtyRican]

I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves. Let's first win this Wednesday. These young kids need to focus on the next game as I would suspect Rickma preaches. We should do the same. Win the next game.

[QUAILMAN]

Winning out is not realistic. SLU v. Dayton at Dayton. They will physically beat on us and the refs will swallow the whistle. We just don't have the horses to play in one of those Big 10 style games.

we lost AT Dayton by 1 point last year. I wound't count it completely out.

[NashvilleBilliken]

Winning out is not realistic. SLU v. Dayton at Dayton. They will physically beat on us and the refs will swallow the whistle. We just don't have the horses to play in one of those Big 10 style games. Plus, we play so many quality opponents to close out the season that we can't expect our young team to come out and play to the best of their ability each night. They are going to poop the sheets somewhere along the line. I'd be the happiest guy to be wrong but my realistic expectations are to finish strong, get deep into the A10 tourney and then hope the NIT selection committee views us favorably based on the 2nd half finish.

I have to agree. Saturday was a HELL of a game and showed what this team can do. But I just can't fathom us going up against the best the A-10 has to offer the next few weeks and come out without a loss.

The problem this team has is that we rely way too heavily on the 3. We have some shooters, but those shooters can have crappy games. How many times have we seen our guys just go ICE COLD? Since more or less the beginning of conference play, I just don't feel we've had a balanced game. Willie was awesome at SJU (or was it LaSalle..can't remember), but that is about all the post play we've had in a month. Until we can beef those guys up down low...and our guards make it a point to get them the ball...I just don't think we can be real consistent.

[Billiken Rich]

I think we win at Dayton. We would have won the game here by five or more if we wouldn't have been stuck in Philly for a couple of extra days. We were not properly prepared for the game because of it and it show in the first half. We were not sharp at all. Over the final thirty minutes of play we outscored Dayton by 17.

We beat Dayton at Dayton and they are going to fire Gregory out of a cannon in the public square. I'd love it and we can do it BUT we could also lose to URI, The Dukes, Temple, UMass, and Xavier. We have a good team but I don't think we've arrived to the point where any one can pencil in a victory on the road against anyone.

[Billiken Rich]

I have to agree. Saturday was a HELL of a game and showed what this team can do. But I just can't fathom us going up against the best the A-10 has to offer the next few weeks and come out without a loss.

The problem this team has is that we rely way too heavily on the 3. We have some shooters, but those shooters can have crappy games. How many times have we seen our guys just go ICE COLD? Since more or less the beginning of conference play, I just don't feel we've had a balanced game. Willie was awesome at SJU (or was it LaSalle..can't remember), but that is about all the post play we've had in a month. Until we can beef those guys up down low...and our guards make it a point to get them the ball...I just don't think we can be real consistent.

If teams are going to triple team Willie, we are going to have to make them pay from outside. If Cody, Christian, Kyle, and JJ can hit their shots hopefully it'll open things up inside. If they don't hit a bunch, we lose......

[brianstl]

We beat Dayton at Dayton and they are going to fire Gregory out of a cannon in the public square. I'd love it and we can do it BUT we could also lose to URI, The Dukes, Temple, UMass, and Xavier. We have a good team but I don't think we've arrived to the point where any one can pencil in a victory on the road against anyone.

I am not penciling the win in. I should have said we can beat Dayton at Dayton. We will be much better prepared for that game than we were for the home game. Rickma will have a better game plan going into the game next time. I can't find the link now, but TT wrote something about how the staff while stuck in Philly wasn't able to break down Dayton game tapes for the game.

[TheChosenOne]

We beat Dayton at Dayton and they are going to fire Gregory out of a cannon in the public square. I'd love it and we can do it BUT we could also lose to URI, The Dukes, Temple, UMass, and Xavier. We have a good team but I don't think we've arrived to the point where any one can pencil in a victory on the road against anyone.

We certainly proved that we can play with Dayton at home, but so did Xavier and look what happened to them at UD Arena. I have a tough time seeing us steal another one from them especially when it will be at UD.

[drkelsey55]

We certainly proved that we can play with Dayton at home, but so did Xavier and look what happened to them at UD Arena. I have a tough time seeing us steal another one from them especially when it will be at UD.

I think the team got a taste of that kind of beating at Richmond on the road........this team will learn from that and not let Dayton do the same.

We may lose at their house but it will be a close game.

[adramos77]

good post.

[Quality Is Job 1]

I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves. Let's first win this Wednesday. These young kids need to focus on the next game as I would suspect Rickma preaches. We should do the same. Win the next game.

There's no correlation between what we are doing as fans and what the players on the team are doing in their private thoughts. The results for the Billikens won't change a bit whether we focus on a game at a time, harp on the past, or keep an eye and a half on 2012.

[joe_davola]

There's no correlation between what we are doing as fans and what the players on the team are doing in their private thoughts. The results for the Billikens won't change a bit whether we focus on a game at a time, harp on the past, or keep an eye and a half on 2012.

I don't know... if DirtyRican's head and pants are not fully in tune with the game, that might lower our edge at home. The players feed off the pants and the fist pumps. Please don't underestimate this.