The Wiz Posted November 11 Posted November 11 We now return to a more normal format. The Bills had a great game against a weak team. Even so, you still have to make the shots and protect the ball and The Bills did that for the most part. They are still in the gelling period. It is starting to come together but we still have a ways to go as you will see in the report card below.. First, let's start with the game preview.... Game Preview......... The Bills start off the year with a C+.... right now, a slightly above average team with a lot of potential. Loyola comes in as C- team ...a team that The Bills should beat. But a win is not a forgone conclusion. In order to win SLU will have to step it up a notch. LM is built around a star player ...Jevon Porter originally from Columbia Mo. A 6' 11 forward who is coming off a dou dou...19pts 12 reb. He will be a handful to stop. He can carry the team. Outside of Porter they don't have a great offense and a so so defense. They will try to beat us by slowing the game down and keep the scoring low. They will try to block us by preventing another Shake Shack night (80+ pts). The good news is they have a poor 3P defense. We can win if we make some shots from the arc. Before we figure out how to beat them... Let's look at the card to see where we are at.... Report Card.... .................SLU..............LM................SLU......................LM ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........B.....................D+.....................B-.................B+ FG%...........C+...................C-.......................B-..............C 3P%...........C......................C.....................B+.................F+ FT%........A+.(13th ITN).....B+.......................................... Reb...........C+......................D..................C.......................C- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... PPG...Jimerson....47th FGM......"...............72nd 3PM......"................26th Reb,,,,,Anya...........65th Stls....McCottery...9th LM Asst...Johnston...81st FGM.....Porter.......45th 2PM........."............76th Injuries The Bills Status/Updated Notes Kobe Johnson G Ques Sat - Shoulder - 11/10/24 Johnson is nursing a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will dress against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Dylan Warlick F Ques Sat - Undisclosed - 11/10/24 Warlick is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Robbie Avila C Ques Sat - Ankle - 11/10/24 Avila missed the previous game due to an ankle injury, and it is unknown if he will return against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. LM... Status/Updated Notes Rick Issanza C Ques Sat - Back - 11/8/24 Issanza is battling a back injury, and it is unknown if he will be active against Saint Louis on Saturday. Keys to the Game.......Stop Porter and we win....keep the game pace up....keep TOs down....make some 3s...get off to a good start, don't fall in a hole at the opening whistle. WWN2D2W...Bills Target slash--48/ 56 / 37 /78...Hold Porter to 14 pts and 8 rebs...TO diff ...even...Win the Reb battle by 4....We will get open looks on 3s...shoot and make them....minimum 37% from the arc. Bottom line.........We are the better team...let's show it.... Let's tame the Lion by going on a Big Game hunt. billikenbill 1 Quote
Cowboy II Posted November 12 Posted November 12 -seeing how we defend a quality big, especially without Robbie, is on my watch list Quote
SluSignGuy Posted November 12 Posted November 12 Lorenzo Romar also making (another) return to St. Louis https://lmulions.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/lorenzo-romar/5893 Quote
TheA_Bomb Posted November 12 Posted November 12 1 hour ago, SluSignGuy said: Lorenzo Romar also making (another) return to St. Louis https://lmulions.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/lorenzo-romar/5893 Did Romar have a link to the Porters? Romar is a good dude. I guess he wants to continue coaching. I probably would've dropped some of that UW money into Microsoft stock and cashed out by now. Quote
SluSignGuy Posted November 12 Posted November 12 3 hours ago, TheA_Bomb said: Did Romar have a link to the Porters? Romar is a good dude. I guess he wants to continue coaching. I probably would've dropped some of that UW money into Microsoft stock and cashed out by now. Yup. https://www.theolympian.com/sports/college/pac-12/university-of-washington/article121905858.html Quote
Old guy Posted November 13 Posted November 13 Wiz, this is just the beginning of a new season. We have played only two games that count Santa Clara D1 which we lost, and Avila NAIA which we won. It really does not matter what ranking we have this early in the season, the stats for a new team are soft. However, in terms of the next game against Loyola Marymount, our season to date playing stats ass per Team Rankings are uniformly better than Loyola Marymount's. This is, no doubt, due to the fact that Avila was not a D1 school. I think we can win this game against LM, but the numbers are simply not there yet to determine what we can really do in D1 play. Let's hope that we will continue improving and that our current stats for the season are close to what they will become with more D1 play. I feel this optimistic about our current stats (after the Avila game) because the bulk of the second half of the Avila game we played with bench players that I do not think will be played much during this season. Just because of that factor, I think the win against Avila, given Avila's NAIA status, was probably more solid than it appears to be. As far as the final score against LM, I have no idea what it may be at this time. I would prefer to wait for the Vegas betting line to be available showing who is favored i this particular game. What I write here is just an educated guess, a guess which I hope becomes reality. Quote
The Wiz Posted November 13 Author Posted November 13 51 minutes ago, Old guy said: Wiz, this is just the beginning of a new season. We have played only two games that count Santa Clara D1 which we lost, and Avila NAIA which we won. It really does not matter what ranking we have this early in the season, the stats for a new team are soft. However, in terms of the next game against Loyola Marymount, our season to date playing stats ass per Team Rankings are uniformly better than Loyola Marymount's. This is, no doubt, due to the fact that Avila was not a D1 school. I think we can win this game against LM, but the numbers are simply not there yet to determine what we can really do in D1 play. Let's hope that we will continue improving and that our current stats for the season are close to what they will become with more D1 play. I feel this optimistic about our current stats (after the Avila game) because the bulk of the second half of the Avila game we played with bench players that I do not think will be played much during this season. Just because of that factor, I think the win against Avila, given Avila's NAIA status, was probably more solid than it appears to be. As far as the final score against LM, I have no idea what it may be at this time. I would prefer to wait for the Vegas betting line to be available showing who is favored i this particular game. What I write here is just an educated guess, a guess which I hope becomes reality. If you don't like my Bayesian numbers check back after Dec 8th when I will be using all real data. drkelsey55 and CenHudDude 2 Quote
Old guy Posted November 13 Posted November 13 8 minutes ago, The Wiz said: If you don't like my Bayesian numbers check back after Dec 8th when I will be using all real data. Wiz, I absolutely love your Bayesian analysis, I think it is the best going. However if you look at what I said, what I said is basically the same thing you are saying, with the exception that I cannot reach a decision as to who will win and by how much. The LM game is the 3rd game of the season, the SLU team is not fully gelled and playing at their full capacity yet. You certainly agree with that. The first game against Santa Clare could have been won if Avila had not had his injury. This left us with a new team trying to play without their primary player. We cannot take the stats for the first game with any degree of confidence. The second game, against Avila, was against an NAIA team, not a D1 team. We beat them by 51 points with most of the second half played by the bench. This, was a very good win for us but it was not against a D1 team, although it counts for the OOC. Yes, your ability to do statistical analysis of a sports team is extraordinary. However, the numbers available as of today are soft as I said. This is exactly the reason why you have to wait 8 games to get solid stats for your calculations. I personally cannot reach a determination of a possible outcome against LM as you have done, not yet anyways. You are much better at this than I am. Quote
The Wiz Posted November 13 Author Posted November 13 9 hours ago, Old guy said: Wiz, I absolutely love your Bayesian analysis, I think it is the best going. However if you look at what I said, what I said is basically the same thing you are saying, with the exception that I cannot reach a decision as to who will win and by how much. The LM game is the 3rd game of the season, the SLU team is not fully gelled and playing at their full capacity yet. You certainly agree with that. The first game against Santa Clare could have been won if Avila had not had his injury. This left us with a new team trying to play without their primary player. We cannot take the stats for the first game with any degree of confidence. The second game, against Avila, was against an NAIA team, not a D1 team. We beat them by 51 points with most of the second half played by the bench. This, was a very good win for us but it was not against a D1 team, although it counts for the OOC. Yes, your ability to do statistical analysis of a sports team is extraordinary. However, the numbers available as of today are soft as I said. This is exactly the reason why you have to wait 8 games to get solid stats for your calculations. I personally cannot reach a determination of a possible outcome against LM as you have done, not yet anyways. You are much better at this than I am. Yes CenHudDude, RiseOfTheBillikens and White Pelican 1 2 Quote
CenHudDude Posted November 14 Posted November 14 22 hours ago, Old guy said: Wiz, this is just the beginning of a new season. We have played only two games that count Santa Clara D1 which we lost, and Avila NAIA which we won. It really does not matter what ranking we have this early in the season, the stats for a new team are soft. However, in terms of the next game against Loyola Marymount, our season to date playing stats ass per Team Rankings are uniformly better than Loyola Marymount's. This is, no doubt, due to the fact that Avila was not a D1 school. I think we can win this game against LM, but the numbers are simply not there yet to determine what we can really do in D1 play. Let's hope that we will continue improving and that our current stats for the season are close to what they will become with more D1 play. I feel this optimistic about our current stats (after the Avila game) because the bulk of the second half of the Avila game we played with bench players that I do not think will be played much during this season. Just because of that factor, I think the win against Avila, given Avila's NAIA status, was probably more solid than it appears to be. As far as the final score against LM, I have no idea what it may be at this time. I would prefer to wait for the Vegas betting line to be available showing who is favored i this particular game. What I write here is just an educated guess, a guess which I hope becomes reality. Why do you think the Vegas betting line is any better at this point in the season? Quote
Old guy Posted November 14 Posted November 14 @CenHudDude Take the recent elections, most of the polls said one thing, the betting markets said something else quite different. The betting markets were correct as it turned out to be. They can provide directional information that polls or statistics cannot. And to be very clear about this I do not bet, Quote
HoosierPal Posted November 14 Posted November 14 @studurando·27m Kalu Anya and Kellen Thames have missed practice this week due to illness. SLU has practiced with 8 scholarship players. (8 means no Johnson in practice.) tpshthttps://x.com/studurando/status/1857136292884336967tps://x.com/studurando/status/1857136292884336967://x.com/studurando/status/1857136292884336967 @studurando·13m Johnson is still out of practice except light stuff. Schertz said improvement has been slow. Quote
The Wiz Posted November 15 Author Posted November 15 Here is the latest injury report.... The spread remains at Bills by 6....The computer is figuring that 3 players will be missing...if there are more than 3, it would affect the Bills negatively. Injuries Player Status/Updated Notes Kalu Anya F Ques Sat - Illness - 11/14/24 Anya is nursing with an illness, and it is undetermined if he will be on court against Loyola Marymount on Saturday. Kellen Thames G Ques Sat - Illness - 11/14/24 Thames is battling with an illness, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's matchup against Loyola Marymount. Kobe Johnson G Ques Sat - Shoulder - 11/10/24 Johnson is nursing a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will dress against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Dylan Warlick F Ques Sat - Undisclosed - 11/10/24 Warlick is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Robbie Avila C Ques Sat - Ankle - 11/10/24 Avila missed the previous game due to an ankle injury, and it is unknown if he will return against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Quote
SLU_Nick Posted November 15 Posted November 15 45 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Here is the latest injury report.... The spread remains at Bills by 6....The computer is figuring that 3 players will be missing...if there are more than 3, it would affect the Bills negatively. Injuries Player Status/Updated Notes Kalu Anya F Ques Sat - Illness - 11/14/24 Anya is nursing with an illness, and it is undetermined if he will be on court against Loyola Marymount on Saturday. Kellen Thames G Ques Sat - Illness - 11/14/24 Thames is battling with an illness, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's matchup against Loyola Marymount. Kobe Johnson G Ques Sat - Shoulder - 11/10/24 Johnson is nursing a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will dress against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Dylan Warlick F Ques Sat - Undisclosed - 11/10/24 Warlick is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Robbie Avila C Ques Sat - Ankle - 11/10/24 Avila missed the previous game due to an ankle injury, and it is unknown if he will return against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. I feel like losing (a healthy) Robbie for this team is worth about 6 points on the spread. maybe more. Our offense does not function without him as our trigger man. He might be the most critical one player I can think of since I started following the team (2003)….and we’ve barely seen him play. not optimistic at all about this game tomorrow without him and Johnson Quote
Billiken Rich Posted November 15 Posted November 15 13 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said: I feel like losing (a healthy) Robbie for this team is worth about 6 points on the spread. maybe more. Our offense does not function without him as our trigger man. He might be the most critical one player I can think of since I started following the team (2003)….and we’ve barely seen him play. not optimistic at all about this game tomorrow without him and Johnson Hopefully we'll be a typical A10 story. Underachieve in the non-conference season and then go through the conference like a dose of salts, f-ing everyone's at large hopes on our way to the A10 Tourney championship.........a tale as old as time..... billikenbill 1 Quote
The Wiz Posted November 15 Author Posted November 15 28 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said: I feel like losing (a healthy) Robbie for this team is worth about 6 points on the spread. maybe more. Our offense does not function without him as our trigger man. He might be the most critical one player I can think of since I started following the team (2003)….and we’ve barely seen him play. not optimistic at all about this game tomorrow without him and Johnson I agree with you that Avila is a critical player. As I said in the opening post, if we can somewhat neutralize Porter we can still win this game. Quote
CenHudDude Posted November 15 Posted November 15 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: Here is the latest injury report.... The spread remains at Bills by 6....The computer is figuring that 3 players will be missing...if there are more than 3, it would affect the Bills negatively. Injuries Player Status/Updated Notes Kalu Anya F Ques Sat - Illness - 11/14/24 Anya is nursing with an illness, and it is undetermined if he will be on court against Loyola Marymount on Saturday. Kellen Thames G Ques Sat - Illness - 11/14/24 Thames is battling with an illness, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's matchup against Loyola Marymount. Kobe Johnson G Ques Sat - Shoulder - 11/10/24 Johnson is nursing a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will dress against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Dylan Warlick F Ques Sat - Undisclosed - 11/10/24 Warlick is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Robbie Avila C Ques Sat - Ankle - 11/10/24 Avila missed the previous game due to an ankle injury, and it is unknown if he will return against Loyola Marymount Lions on Saturday. Is the computer sure? It isn’t feeling ill, is it? Quote
Old guy Posted November 15 Posted November 15 OK, TeamRankings published their Vegas like betting spread. We are favored by 5 points, 2 stars of confidence to win against LM. @The Wiz Congratulations you are once more able to come up with a reasonable prediction that is just about the same as the Vegas spread the day before the game. Injuries and sickness are included into the way bettor's decisions are made. Once more I am really impressed. GO BILLS! Quote
Lord Elrond Posted November 15 Posted November 15 12 minutes ago, Old guy said: OK, TeamRankings published their Vegas like betting spread. We are favored by 5 points, 2 stars of confidence to win against LM. @The Wiz Congratulations you are once more able to come up with a reasonable prediction that is just about the same as the Vegas spread the day before the game. Injuries and sickness are included into the way bettor's decisions are made. Once more I am really impressed. GO BILLS! @The Wiz‘s computer must have a side hustle setting betting lines for Vegas! It’s an industrious little machine! Old guy 1 Quote
The Wiz Posted November 16 Author Posted November 16 And yet another injury update.....Avila has been moved from Questionable to out another month. Injuries Robbie Avila C Mid Dec - Ankle - 11/15/24 Avila is nursing an ankle injury, and he will remain out of action until the middle of December. Quote
billiken_roy Posted November 16 Posted November 16 7 hours ago, The Wiz said: And yet another injury update.....Avila has been moved from Questionable to out another month. Injuries Robbie Avila C Mid Dec - Ankle - 11/15/24 Avila is nursing an ankle injury, and he will remain out of action until the middle of December. personally, i believe this is a good move. the fact he has sprained the same ankle twice this year, it is in the team's best interest to allow enough time to fully recover. otherwise this is going to definitely happen again. let's get him well for the conference season which will be the most important to making the post season imo Schasz 1 Quote
HoosierPal Posted November 16 Posted November 16 8 hours ago, The Wiz said: And yet another injury update.....Avila has been moved from Questionable to out another month. Injuries Robbie Avila C Mid Dec - Ankle - 11/15/24 Avila is nursing an ankle injury, and he will remain out of action until the middle of December. Schertz said Dec 2 against Jackson State was a likely return. willie 1 Quote
Old guy Posted November 17 Posted November 17 You cannot make a prediction at this time that Avila will be back playing in a given game. It all depends on how well the recovery goes. What you do not want is a third injury to the same ankle the next time he plays. Remember Goodwin playing wearing a plastic face protector, I think he should be wearing high top shoes when he start playing again. Quote
Lord Elrond Posted November 17 Posted November 17 And it was Billikens by 6!!!! @The Wiz’s computer en fuego early in the season!!! Quote
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