The Wiz Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 General Outlook....And we begin conference play.... As I mentioned in the preconference forecast, parity will be a major factor in a lot of A-10 games. For the Bills, this is what we will have to do to finish 4th or higher in the league. We need to win a lot of close games, starting with this one. It also means we will have to win some games on the road. No simple task...but possible. The good news is that if we start winning games and beating spreads we can improve our ranking quickly. Fourth place is not just about getting a double bye...but it is level we need to be at to compete in post season. I asked the computer what team is at the center of the D1 universe...the exact middle ....the true average bball team in D1...The answer as we head into our first conference game is...The Bills. The projected fourth place A-10 team right now is a B+.... a long road to go ...but with parity plus 2 additions(Ezewiro and Parker), it is possible. Game Preview....Loy-Chi comes to town with a B-....SOS ...D-....The Bills have an overall grade of C with an SOS of B-. The Ramblers have played a relatively easy schedule , especially compared to the BIlls so their record isn't real meaningful. We are a better shooting 3P team and a better shooting FT team plus they turnover prone. ...BUT...there are some warnings ...they have 3 guys who can shoot from the arc(40%+)...they have a FT shooter who is shooting 95% from the line.... they have a center who is a fly swatter...top 10 in blks......they play defense....the question is ...will we? If we do... they will TO the ball over....if we do they will miss from the arc...if we do... we will win Report Card.... Report card... The report card is showing negative with 3 categories up and 4 down. Offense is passable...the defense needs to pick it up a bit. ....................SLU...........Loy-Ch..........SLU.....................Loy-Ch ..............................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG...............C-................C-................D-.............................B FG%...............C.................B..................D-.............................A- 3P%...............A-................B..................C...............................D- FT%...............B..................D+..................................................... Reb...............D-.................C+................D...............................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%...FG%......Def.....Reb Down.........Off......PPG...3P%.......Def....PPG...FG% Top 100 In The Nation SLU none Loy-Ch Ast....Norris....35th Blks....Rubin....9th FT%...Norris...12th(95%) 3P%....Edwards...67th (48%) Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Magassa ...Dec 20 ...out for the season....eligibility Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates Loy-Chi.... none Keys to the Game.......Play D and make some shots. ...Avoid Rubin their shot blocker....Their weaknesses are 3P D and FT shooting...which are our strengths....Don't foul Norris their FT shooter and get some good looks from the arc....Make the slash WWN2D2W...Target slash...46/39/73....Try to stay within 3 rebs....Beat them in TOs by 3....Guard Norris , Dawson and Edwards , all 40%+ from the arc....Hold Loy-C to 70 pts....hold Watson and Alston to 21 pts...in a pinch Alston is their go to guy... Bottom line....If the Bills play their game, Loyola will Ramble out of town with a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Fully healthy and with time to gel further, this may become Ford’s most prolific offense at SLU. If they can play better second half D, they can go places, but that’s a big if. billiken_roy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 54 minutes ago, The Wiz said: General Outlook....And we begin conference play.... As I mentioned in the preconference forecast, parity will be a major factor in a lot of A-10 games. For the Bills, this is what we will have to do to finish 4th or higher in the league. We need to win a lot of close games, starting with this one. It also means we will have to win some games on the road. No simple task...but possible. The good news is that if we start winning games and beating spreads we can improve our ranking quickly. Fourth place is not just about getting a double bye...but it is level we need to be at to compete in post season. I asked the computer what team is at the center of the D1 universe...the exact middle ....the true average bball team in D1...The answer as we head into our first conference game is...The Bills. The projected fourth place A-10 team right now is a B+.... a long road to go ...but with parity plus 2 additions(Ezewiro and Parker), it is possible. Game Preview....Loy-Chi comes to town with a B-....SOS ...D-....The Bills have an overall grade of C with an SOS of B-. The Ramblers have played a relatively easy schedule , especially compared to the BIlls so their record isn't real meaningful. We are a better shooting 3P team and a better shooting FT team plus they turnover prone. ...BUT...there are some warnings ...they have 3 guys who can shoot from the arc(40%+)...they have a FT shooter who is shooting 95% from the line.... they have a center who is a fly swatter...top 10 in blks......they play defense....the question is ...will we? If we do... they will TO the ball over....if we do they will miss from the arc...if we do... we will win Report Card.... Report card... The report card is showing negative with 3 categories up and 4 down. Offense is passable...the defense needs to pick it up a bit. ....................SLU...........Loy-Ch..........SLU.....................Loy-Ch ..............................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG...............C-................C-................D-.............................B FG%...............C.................B..................D-.............................A- 3P%...............A-................B..................C...............................D- FT%...............B..................D+..................................................... Reb...............D-.................C+................D...............................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%...FG%......Def.....Reb Down.........Off......PPG...3P%.......Def....PPG...FG% Top 100 In The Nation SLU none Loy-Ch Ast....Norris....35th Blks....Rubin....9th FT%...Norris...12th(95%) 3P%....Edwards...67th (48%) Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Magassa ...Dec 20 ...out for the season....eligibility Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates Loy-Chi.... none Keys to the Game.......Play D and make some shots. ...Avoid Rubin their shot blocker....Their weaknesses are 3P D and FT shooting...which are our strengths....Don't foul Norris their FT shooter and get some good looks from the arc....Make the slash WWN2D2W...Target slash...46/39/73....Try to stay within 3 rebs....Beat them in TOs by 3....Guard Norris , Dawson and Edwards , all 40%+ from the arc....Hold them to 70 pts....hold Watson and Alston to 21 pts...in a pinch Alston is their go to guy... Bottom line....If the Bills play their game, Loyola will Ramble out of town with a loss. Will the bills play defense? NO. If the bills shoot 45% or better from 3 SLU wins. If not SLU loses. That's my prediction. Agree with the spread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Wiz do you have a typo or am I missing something? In order for us to win you have us holding five of their guys to 91 points. Do you have the Billikens scoring 93 to win by 2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: Wiz do you have a typo or am I missing something? In order for us to win you have us holding five of their guys to 91 points. Do you have the Billikens scoring 93 to win by 2? It's a decent spread. SLU can't defend though so Wiz's "what we need to do to win" is just shoot at record-breaking levels. Slow it down, shoot a high % If we get the "golden slash" we win, if not we lose because we can't defend, rebound, or generate turnovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: Wiz do you have a typo or am I missing something? In order for us to win you have us holding five of their guys to 91 points. Do you have the Billikens scoring 93 to win by 2? Sorry I wasn't clear enough ....I have changed "them" to Loy -C....we still win by 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 You were clear Wiz. It was my reading comprehension that was lacking. I read quickly and thought that you wanted the Billikens to hold three of their guys to 70 points, and another two to 21. I think I’ll sign off for now and start thinking about what I will drink tonight. I really haven’t been drinking yet today. Lord Elrond likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 -that Norris for them can't be Braden, he was in the team photo with Alfredrick Hughes, he's been there longer than GibJim has been with us -beat the hell out of them simply because of 'Blers' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Per Matthew Rocchio on Twitter, no Sincere this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Box and Won said: Per Matthew Rocchio on Twitter, no Sincere this week. gotta think this means Saturday as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, Box and Won said: Per Matthew Rocchio on Twitter, no Sincere this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Travis Ford should just send Teddy Ruxpin to media availability from now on. It’s just the same recycled comments every time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 28 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: His reasons for the last 4 game stretch being something that caused us to lose - second half defense, 3pt shooting, TOs - WTF. This is just describing poor play and poor play is always why you lose. Soderball likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, cheeseman said: His reasons for the last 4 game stretch being something that caused us to lose - second half defense, 3pt shooting, TOs - WTF. This is just describing poor play and poor play is always why you lose. If only there were someone in a position to address those issues with the players who aren't performing well in those situations. Soderball likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We'll have the same players available as last game, which is what I expected. I wouldn't expect to see Parker until our 2nd home game at the earliest. And that's a Parker that needs to get back into basketball shape. The rest of the guys will have to step up for us to hold serve at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, Pistol said: If only there were someone in a position to address those issues with the players who aren't performing well in those situations. Ted Lasso for Billiken Head Basketball Coach! BELIEVE! willie likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Box and Won said: Per Matthew Rocchio on Twitter, no Sincere this week. -I hope we don't have to find out, but I wonder if this changes if we lose tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -I hope we don't have to find out, but I wonder if this changes if we lose tomorrow It doesn't change anything on my end....The computer still sees "out indefinitely" and goes with that. Even if Parker , were to make a surprise appearance he wouldn't play significant minutes...The computer would see coming in as another sub . It will be that way till he returns and gets up to speed. Bottom line...Still Bills by 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, cheeseman said: His reasons for the last 4 game stretch being something that caused us to lose - second half defense, 3pt shooting, TOs - WTF. This is just describing poor play and poor play is always why you lose. Everything for this team just boils down to 3pt%; almost everything else doesn't even matter. We could have 30 TOs -- we just need to shoot 80 or 90% from trey. That's what Ford has recruited because he can't build a roster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Soderball said: Everything for this team just boils down to 3pt%; almost everything else doesn't even matter. We could have 30 TOs -- we just need to shoot 80 or 90% from trey. That's what Ford has recruited because he can't build a roster. This just isn't true. You can make up numbers but you can't make up facts. I agree that 3 pt shooting is important within the context of the other stats. But raising one number way up and trying to balance it with another especially when the starting numbers are not realistic...is... well......just not realistic. Raising TOs to 30 will cut down on the number of 3PA which in turn will cut down the number of 3PM. Let's look at an example...I could only do this after the computer stopped making fun of me..."Would you also like to know how many MPGs a Rambler gets" joked the machine. Here is what the simulation looked like if the Bills gave up 30 TOs to Loy. In the normal game tomorrow, we are forecast to win by 2....74-72. Thirty TO's would change the score with Loy-C winning the game 92-56. Then we fix things by having the Bills shoot 85% from the arc....remember we are now getting a lot fewer shots because of the TOs....and BINGO...we have 4 more 3PM at 85%....and lose the game 92-68. Bottom line....simple math isn't simple and simple logic doesn't win games. I prefer to use real data when doing simulations. billikenbill, cgeldmacher, CenHudDude and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, The Wiz said: This just isn't true. You can make up numbers but you can't make up facts. I agree that 3 pt shooting is important within the context of the other stats. But raising one number way up and trying to balance it with another especially when the starting numbers are not realistic...is... well......just not realistic. Raising TOs to 30 will cut down on the number of 3PA which in turn will cut down the number of 3PM. Let's look at an example...I could only do this after the computer stopped making fun of me..."Would you also like to know how many MPGs a Rambler gets" joked the machine. Here is what the simulation looked like if the Bills gave up 30 TOs to Loy. In the normal game tomorrow, we are forecast to win by 2....74-72. Thirty TO's would change the score with Loy-C winning the game 92-56. Then we fix things by having the Bills shoot 85% from the arc....remember we are now getting a lot fewer shots because of the TOs....and BINGO...we have 4 more 3PM at 85%....and lose the game 92-68. Bottom line....simple math isn't simple and simple logic doesn't win games. I prefer to use real data when doing simulations. Thanks for your logical explanation Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 34 minutes ago, The Wiz said: This just isn't true. You can make up numbers but you can't make up facts. I agree that 3 pt shooting is important within the context of the other stats. But raising one number way up and trying to balance it with another especially when the starting numbers are not realistic...is... well......just not realistic. Raising TOs to 30 will cut down on the number of 3PA which in turn will cut down the number of 3PM. Let's look at an example...I could only do this after the computer stopped making fun of me..."Would you also like to know how many MPGs a Rambler gets" joked the machine. Here is what the simulation looked like if the Bills gave up 30 TOs to Loy. In the normal game tomorrow, we are forecast to win by 2....74-72. Thirty TO's would change the score with Loy-C winning the game 92-56. Then we fix things by having the Bills shoot 85% from the arc....remember we are now getting a lot fewer shots because of the TOs....and BINGO...we have 4 more 3PM at 85%....and lose the game 92-68. Bottom line....simple math isn't simple and simple logic doesn't win games. I prefer to use real data when doing simulations. I think he may have been being sarcastic? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, cheeseman said: I think he may have been being sarcastic? Not being sarcastic. I ran the numbers to show what would happen if you just changed a stat by moving it way out of the normal area.....you can't always fix the situation by moving another stat to try and balance it out. There is a point of no return on data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Not being sarcastic. I ran the numbers to show what would happen if you just changed a stat by moving it way out of the normal area.....you can't always fix the situation by moving another stat to try and balance it out. There is a point of no return on data. No I believed you and your numbers made sense I was saying I thought he was being sarcastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOC Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 hours ago, billikenfan05 said: Travis Ford should just send Teddy Ruxpin to media availability from now on. It’s just the same recycled comments every time. I hadn't heard a word about Sincere playing tomorrow until I read this. Would be nice if someone in town could at least provide us with some day-to-day news about the team. At this point, I'll take what we can get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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