The Bills over Dart by 11

[The Wiz]

General Outlook......Putting this forecast up a bit early because neither The Bills or DART have a game before Sat.....Weak shooting continues to plague The Bills especially on close in shots.  I will add a 4th category to the slash line (2P%) until the issue improves.  As you all know The Bills have a number of problems  but the computer has determined that the missed 2s are  leading factor leading to losses and  smaller than expected spread outcomes.  The target to get The Bills back on track is 50.5% from inside the arc. In the last 2 games The Bills have shot 35.1% and 41.7%  from 2P land.  They are averaging 41.9% for the year which grades out at F+.  They need to start making the short ones.

 Game Preview....The Bills are still grading out overall at B-. Their opponent this Sat is a weak DART....not terrible like a LeMoyne College but still bad ...overall grade is D.   If  The Bills can get back on track they could turn this game into a blowout.

 

Report Card.... 

..Report card for this game is weak...All offense was down except FT shooting  which was up and Def 3P% which remained the same.

Let's see what things look like....

...................SLU......................DART........................SLU.............................DART

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B-.......................F-.............................C-..................................D-

FG%...............C-......................F-.............................C...................................F-

3P%...............A-......................F-.............................B-....................................D

FT%...............C+......................B.......................................................................

Reb...............D..........................C-.............................F....................................D+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....FT%..........Def.....none

Down.........Off......All but FT%.......Def....All but 3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

None

DART

None

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured  foot...out indefinitely

DART...

None

Key to the Game......Make 2s

WWN2D2W...46/51/40/72....Hold their top 2 scorers to 20 pts...Hold DART  to 70 pts....Rebs even...TOs 10

Bottom line....If we can make our 2s (especially the close in ones) then The Big Green will lose it's sheen.

BTW...Did I  mention the thing about the 2s?

[CenHudDude]

56 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

General Outlook......Putting this forecast up a bit early because neither The Bills or DART have a game before Sat.....Weak shooting continues to plague The Bills especially on close in shots.  I will add a 4th category to the slash line (2P%) until the issue improves.  As you all know The Bills have a number of problems  but the computer has determined that the missed 2s are  leading factor leading to losses and  smaller than expected spread outcomes.  The target to get The Bills back on track is 50.5% from inside the arc. In the last 2 games The Bills have shot 35.1% and 41.7%  from 2P land.  They are averaging 41.9% for the year which grades out at F+.  They need to start making the short ones.

 Game Preview....The Bills are still grading out overall at B-. Their opponent this Sat is a weak DART....not terrible like a LeMoyne College but still bad ...overall grade is D.   If  The Bills can get back on track they could turn this game into a blowout.

 

Report Card.... 

..Report card for this game is weak...All offense was down except FT shooting  which was up and Def 3P% which remained the same.

Let's see what things look like....

...................SLU......................DART........................SLU.............................DART

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B-.......................F-.............................C-..................................D-

FG%...............C-......................F-.............................C...................................F-

3P%...............A-......................F-.............................B-....................................D

FT%...............C+......................B.......................................................................

Reb...............D..........................C-.............................F....................................D+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....FT%..........Def.....none

Down.........Off......All but FT%.......Def....All but 3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

None

DART

None

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured  foot...out indefinitely

WSU...

None

Key to the Game......Make 2s

WWN2D2W...46/51/40/72....Hold their top 2 scorers to 20 pts...Hold DART  to 70 pts....Rebs even...TOs 10

Bottom line....If we can make our 2s (especially the close in ones) then The Big Green will lose it's sheen.

BTW...Did I  mention the thing about the 2s?

Did I miss something?  I didn’t see anything about 2’s.

[Cowboy II]

-in two D1 games, both losses,  the Big Green scored 54 at Duke and 48 hosting UMass Lowell, do they score more than 51 on Saturday? I'll take the over

[The Wiz]

To paraphrase Mark Twain...the reports of my point spread missing in action are greatly exaggerated. As you can see from the original post , It has been up since  last Tues..

At first , it looks like the computer was on to something ...it got the spread right for the 1st half...11pts and for the game it  looks like it just had an extra 1...11 instead of 1....but in the end the computer's forecast proved  prophetic. 

From the original post above......

Weak shooting continues to plague The Bills especially on close in shots.  I will add a 4th category to the slash line (2P%) until the issue improves.  As you all know The Bills have a number of problems  but the computer has determined that the missed 2s are  leading factor leading to losses and  smaller than expected spread outcomes.  The target to get The Bills back on track is 50.5% from inside the arc. In the last 2 games The Bills have shot 35.1% and 41.7%  from 2P land.  They are averaging 41.9% for the year which grades out at F+.  They need to start making the short ones.

..We shot another dismal 42% from 2P land. That number will be costly if it continues....both in spreads (which is a big part of NET rankings) and wins. We have got to fix this and fix it quick.   If you still don't believe this is a serious issue, all you have to do is drill down into the micro stats of this game.  In the 1st half the Bills shot 50% from inside the arc (remember that the computer's target for The Bills is 50.5%) and the result was an 11 pt lead at the half.....what a coincidence.  In the 2nd half The Bills shot a 36% 2P shooting rate good for an F-  and wound up losing the 2nd half by 10 and almost the game.

Again, there were some good things that happened ...not the least of which we won the game....And there were some nice individual performances BUT if we don't start shooting 50% from inside the arc , it will be a very long season.

I heard Ford's post game interview and  he was mad and upset....He said  this poor performance was on him...and he can fix it....Don't know if he reads the board but he did focus on the issue of shooting inside the arc...hmmm...another one of those coincidences. 

Let's hope he can fix it and do it quickly as the competition ramps up quickly starting on Tues.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Like last year SLU continues to miss way too many layups and bunnies, especially layups. 

[cheeseman]

I alone can fix it - Ford's con

[The Wiz]

Quote

 

A couple of points here....First , let me say , I am not a defender of Ford BUT I am a defender of the facts and based on his latest interview (last night -post game) he said the following..... the first statement he made was that last night's poor play against DART "is on me"....which means he takes responsibility for the loss... The second major statement he made was ..."I can fix it"....He did not say I alone can fix it. Let's not make things worse than they are.

During that interview last night , he was upset.... as mad as I have heard him publicly.  Things are not going as planned. Some of it his fault...some of it not.  Right now we are an above average team BUT not good enough for post season play. But it is still early...we haven't even reached a minimum data size yet.  Generally , the time to review the season prospects are after the OOC play is complete....usually by then ...you are who you are.  The Bills are currently B-...they need to get to B by Xmas to keep on the right path.

[SLU_Nick]

This graphic stunned me.  Kenpom predicts that we lose out till at least 19 Jan. 
 

goodness 

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

16 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

This graphic stunned me.  Kenpom predicts that we lose out till at least 19 Jan. 
 

goodness 

I think Fords gone if that happens

[cheeseman]

24 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

A couple of points here....First , let me say , I am not a defender of Ford BUT I am a defender of the facts and based on his latest interview (last night -post game) he said the following..... the first statement he made was that last night's poor play against DART "is on me"....which means he takes responsibility for the loss... The second major statement he made was ..."I can fix it"....He did not say I alone can fix it. Let's not make things worse than they are.

During that interview last night , he was upset.... as mad as I have heard him publicly.  Things are not going as planned. Some of it his fault...some of it not.  Right now we are an above average team BUT not good enough for post season play. But it is still early...we haven't even reached a minimum data size yet.  Generally , the time to review the season prospects are after the OOC play is complete....usually by then ...you are who you are.  The Bills are currently B-...they need to get to B by Xmas to keep on the right path.

He should have said " we can fix it"  By saying "I" is saying he alone will fix it.  Second his being upset - same old same old.  We have all heard him say stuff like this before and nothing really changes.  Crocodile tears is all.

[The Wiz]

50 minutes ago, SLU_Nick said:

This graphic stunned me.  Kenpom predicts that we lose out till at least 19 Jan. 
 

goodness 

I think it is important to use KenPom's disclaimer.....

"Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning
each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions."

If you show the entire season...he has us winning only 4 more games for the rest of the season ...yet using his own projections he shows us winning 9 more on his total season....which means he thinks there is a good chance we will win some of those games listed.

How  does he do that?  By putting in the disclaimer above....Cumulative probabilities are different than individual game forecasts...thereby creating the above confusing which leads to the disclaimer.

Bottom line....  A few days ago Ken had us beating UT St    I wouldn't put a lot of faith in any forecast that goes out more than 1 game at a time. 

[VeniceMenace]

Much of this team resembles the Bills in Grawer’s final year…promising but young (Highmark, Claggs, Winfield, Grant = Medley, Hughes, Thames, Zhang).

[Taj79]

@The Wiz:  Strongly disagree with your statement that this "is an above average team."  I stand by my statement that this is a team of role players (at best) thrown together like sh*t on a wall to see what sticks.  

[longtimelistenerfirsttimec]

26 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said:

Much of this team resembles the Bills in Grawer’s final year…promising but young (Highmark, Claggs, Winfield, Grant = Medley, Hughes, Thames, Zhang).

do you really think we have a highmark  or any players you mention on this team because  i cannot see that

[The Wiz]

28 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

@The Wiz:  Strongly disagree with your statement that this "is an above average team."  I stand by my statement that this is a team of role players (at best) thrown together like sh*t on a wall to see what sticks.  

I think if you look at all 363 teams  we are above average...I have The Bills at B-....Vegas is more optimistic with a B...KenPom is  at a C+.  It is still early....I think the smoke will clear in the next few weeks....we have a lot of close games coming up....In a close game early in the season where there is less data...the X factor becomes more important.  Will the Bills win those games?  Depends on how much of  the X factor they have....How bad do they want it? Can they focus for 40 min? Can they make half of their 2s ?  

Stay tuned.

[Taj79]

The eye test and the computer seem drastically at odds here.

[VeniceMenace]

6 hours ago, longtimelistenerfirsttimec said:

do you really think we have a highmark  or any players you mention on this team because  i cannot see that

Maybe, maybe not…time will tell.

[billikenblue]

10 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A couple of points here....First , let me say , I am not a defender of Ford BUT I am a defender of the facts and based on his latest interview (last night -post game) he said the following..... the first statement he made was that last night's poor play against DART "is on me"....which means he takes responsibility for the loss... The second major statement he made was ..."I can fix it"....He did not say I alone can fix it. Let's not make things worse than they are.

During that interview last night , he was upset.... as mad as I have heard him publicly.  Things are not going as planned. Some of it his fault...some of it not.  Right now we are an above average team BUT not good enough for post season play. But it is still early...we haven't even reached a minimum data size yet.  Generally , the time to review the season prospects are after the OOC play is complete....usually by then ...you are who you are.  The Bills are currently B-...they need to get to B by Xmas to keep on the right path.

You are not even close …this is not and will not be a B team anytime this year . Your numbers are based on subpar competition and the “eye test “ and the team composition is headed for exactly what Kenpom shows . 

[TheChosenOne]

To be fair, we are also without a really key player now in Parker. Probably the only guy on our roster who can go get a bucket. Without him we are really limited offensively in addition to the previous hole in the middle and obviously not a B team. I think with Parker it becomes more reasonable to consider us a B team.

[The Wiz]

12 minutes ago, billikenblue said:

You are not even close …this is not and will not be a B team anytime this year . Your numbers are based on subpar competition and the “eye test “ and the team composition is headed for exactly what Kenpom shows . 

Well , let's see what we have here....I have the Bills as a B-  team...Ken has them as a C+ team(168-slightly above average)...Seems like ole Ken and me are pretty close together.  If I am way off, then you are saying Ken is way off.  I think Ken would disagree with you.

[Lord Elrond]

10 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Well , let's see what we have here....I have the Bills as a B-  team...Ken has them as a C+ team(168-slightly above average)...Seems like ole Ken and me are pretty close together.  If I am way off, then you are saying Ken is way off.  I think Ken would disagree with you.

Honestly @The Wiz and Ken are pretty close to each other in where they have this team. 

[Dr. Holly Hills]

With such a height challenged team, I don’t know how our 2pt% will improve once we start playing teams with more skilled bigs. We might not even get a shot off inside the arch against Dayton.  Fun times…

[Soderball]

1 hour ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:

With such a height challenged team, I don’t know how our 2pt% will improve once we start playing teams with more skilled bigs. We might not even get a shot off inside the arch against Dayton.  Fun times…

Hargrove and Thames will put up a few baskets.

What you're seeing here is exactly right and is the right analysis of this team: we are undersized. We can't defend and we cannot rebound and we cannot score in the paint.

Mostly we throw an undersized body at them and hope they are slow enough to commit a foul. Works with Dartmouth, won't work with more skilled bigs who have studied and know our game more(when we get into conference play)

This roster has the makings of a Crewsplatt nightmare IMO. Even during the darkest years of Crewsplatt fiasco i watched guys like Milik Yarbrough** and thought they had some ability. You saw the same with Parker and Hargrove. When we get into it we will be really exposed and it won't be good. Ford knows it.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, Dr. Holly Hills said:

With such a height challenged team, I don’t know how our 2pt% will improve once we start playing teams with more skilled bigs. We might not even get a shot off inside the arch against Dayton.  Fun times…

Run.   We need fast break layups and scores off steals.   We keep playing half court we are so outsized it won't change playing the same ole half court crap.  

[johnbj14]

47 minutes ago, Soderball said:

Hargrove and Thames will put up a few baskets.

What you're seeing here is exactly right and is the right analysis of this team: we are undersized. We can't defend and we cannot rebound and we cannot score in the paint.

Mostly we throw an undersized body at them and hope they are slow enough to commit a foul. Works with Dartmouth, won't work with more skilled bigs who have studied and know our game more(when we get into conference play)

This roster has the makings of a Crewsplatt nightmare IMO. Even during the darkest years of Crewsplatt fiasco i watched guys like Jordan Nesbitt and thought they had some ability. You saw the same with Parker and Hargrove. When we get into it we will be really exposed and it won't be good. Ford knows it.

Nesbitt was a Ford player, not associated with He Who Shall Not Be Named.