The Bills over St. B by 7... part 1

[The Wiz]

 

Before we get started , I have a few items to go over...first a Tip o' the cap to Fred Thatch on his first Double Double...14pts & 10 rebs...way to go FT.

Another item was a stat from last night's LaS post game analysis...A lot of good numbers from last night's game. One that I failed to mention which was the elephant in the room was ...Points in the Paint...Bills 46  LaS 22...The cherry on top of the sundae.

And finally , I thought this would be a good time to look back at a few C2D charts now that the rest of the world has caught up with me and discovered the Bills are good. Some are still hedging..."yeah they are good but we don't think the Bills are worthy yet"....just for a bit of history ...let's look some previous   C2Ds.

Dated Dec 23 , 2021 from the Wiz's Preconference Forecast

........Preconference..........Chance 2 Dance

1................SLU................55%

2...............Dav.................46%

3..............VCU.................43%

4..............Rich.........can still improve for C2D

5.............St. B..........can still improve for C2D

Dated Dec31, 2021  from The Wiz's New Year's Outlook

The only team that can stop us now is us.

Chance to Dance ....

The Bills...56%

Dav...........46%

VCU..........45%

And finally today...

Chance 2 Dance...Feb 9, 2022

The Bills ....64%...up 2 pts

Day.............46%....up 1 pt

No other A-10 teams were 40% or above.

In the first C2D , at that time, KPom had us at 90...the 2nd one was 81st...Not picking on KPom ...no service had us on the radar and for @Bay Area Billiken ...the first 2 C2Ds...  I had the Bills  ranked in the upper 40s...we are  currently still tied with Boise St.  at 39th.  As I pointed out earlier, I prefer to use probability percentages. They are a better indicator of getting a bid.  We are at 64%  BSU at 59%...If it ever came down to a Committee decision, guess what they would look at ...The Bills game at BSU...case closed....QED.

So now it is onto  St. B part 1.  These are not games to be taken lightly. The Bonnies  will be hungry...they are 1 game out on the lost side from making a top 4 spot on the A-10 ladder. And as you  can see they are not listed on C2D. This is a chance over the next 2 games for them to become relevant again, remove the stain of a disappointing season so far.....A sweep by us and their season is pretty much over.  The point is ...these next 2 games are their  season ...they will not go down without a fight.

Let's see what we are dealing with on the report card....

 

...................SLU.....................St B..........................SLU.........................St B

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A........................C-.............................B-............................C+

FG%...............B.......................C.............................B+..............................B-

3P%..............B+......................C-.............................B................................D+

FT%...............A+ 17th ITN......A...............................................................

Reb...............A.........................C+.............................B+............................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off...none....Def.....PPG

Down....Off...none.....Def...none

Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...8th...up

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch

Stls......Collins....17th....up

FT%...Jimerson...96th...dn

PPG...Jimerson...91st...dn

Dou-Dou....Collins...39th...unch

FG%....Okoro....46th...up

Off Reb...Okoro...67th...dn

FTA/FGA....Linssen...30th...up

Asst/TO ratio...Jones...65th...dn

Blks...Okora...96th...new

 

St B

Blks...Osunniyi...16th

Rebs........"..........93rd

Off Rebs.."...........33rd

FG%........."...........87th

Assts...Lofton.....22nd

Stls.........."...........59th

Injury/ Illness

Brown (G)...Out for season...Illness...2/1/22

Mellouk (F)...Out indefinitely...undisclosed injury...1/17/22...No timetable for return.

Keys to the game.....

So what's the deal with St. B ?  They were supposed to be great but they are not.  They have a good starting 5  and therein lies the problem...St. B goes 5 deep...whatever they start with ...that's pretty much it...All the starters will have over 30 min ...most will be in the upper 30s.  Wear them down.  If there are any subs who come in for a few minutes ...these are the places to open up a lead.  Matchups...Osunniyi vs Okoro...this is pretty close...add Linssen, edge to SLU.......Yuri vs Lofton...Lofton is good ...Yuri is the best...advantage SLU.   Remember LaS...St. Bon is the same with much better FT shooting and a slightly  better defense. 

WWN2D2W....Hold the Bonnies to 70 pts or less ... closer to 60 than 70pts is doable.  Adway is their 3P guy ...hold him to 2   3PA ..........

St. B slash target...less than 40%/ less than 30%/ less than 15FTA......Rebs  4+ extra rebs....The Bonnies will have 11 TOs ...we need to match...let's try for another 8......Osunniyi 1 blk...Win the matchups (see Keys to the game)

Bottom line... If we win part 1 ...good chance to sweep.   Let's leave the Bonnies over the ocean (of defeat)

 

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

Out of reactions, Great Post, Wiz, and thank you for all your excellent work.  I appreciate the new addition of The Wiz's ranking.  Can you box that and send it to the NCAA Selection Committee?  

SLU is improving, approaching that first standard deviation.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Returns from Early Precincts:

Sagarin has SLU by 6 over the Bonnies in Friday night's SLU home game, by 10 over St. Bona in his Recent Ratings.  Sagarin has SLU ranked 31 in his Recent Ratings, 44 overall.

Haslametrics has the score as SLU 74 St. Bona 65 rounded off, but SLU by 8 carried out to 2 decimal points and rounded off.  By comparison, in the rematch near Olean on Monday, Haslametric has the score as SLU 70 St. Bona 69, a mere 1 point margin for SLU.

Various SLU Rankings:  NET 51, Pomeroy 47, Sagarin 44, ESPN BPI 38 (SLU continues to shine in the BPI), Haslametrics 46, (the archaic) RPI 51, Massey (through 2/6/22) 44, for an average of the 7 of 46.

[Old guy]

Agree with you Wiz, it will be a tough game, particularly the second one. St. Bona has been beaten by GM, Dayton, and Richmond, all teams we have beaten at least once this season. All of these were away losses for St. Bona. We did beat GM at their home court though (we beat Dayton and Riichmond at the Chaifetz). Our stats pre game for the  coming game Friday are better than St. Bona's both offense and defense. They play 5 people, we tend to play 8. However we can extend the number of players with significant minutes in a game up to 10 with good results.

I believe SLU has been gaining a degree of flexibility in player usage that takes advantage of the depth of our bench and which is not something other teams can easily duplicate. This flexibility and depth of bench is what I consider to be our edge against St. Bona, assuming we use it properly.

Excellent post, very informative. I think we may well win both games with St. Bona, and I hope we do so.

[slufanskip]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

 

Before we get started , I have a few items to go over...first a Tip o' the cap to Fred Thatch on his first Double Double...14pts & 10 rebs...way to go FT.

Another item was a stat from last night's LaS post game analysis...A lot of good numbers from last night's game. One that I failed to mention which was the elephant in the room was ...Points in the Paint...Bills 46  LaS 22...The cherry on top of the sundae.

And finally , I thought this would be a good time to look back at a few C2D charts now that the rest of the world has caught up with me and discovered the Bills are good. Some are still hedging..."yeah they are good but we don't think the Bills are worthy yet"....just for a bit of history ...let's look some previous   C2Ds.

Dated Dec 23 , 2021 from the Wiz's Preconference Forecast

........Preconference..........Chance 2 Dance

1................SLU................55%

2...............Dav.................46%

3..............VCU.................43%

4..............Rich.........can still improve for C2D

5.............St. B..........can still improve for C2D

Dated Dec31, 2021  from The Wiz's New Year's Outlook

The only team that can stop us now is us.

Chance to Dance ....

The Bills...56%

Dav...........46%

VCU..........45%

And finally today...

Chance 2 Dance...Feb 9, 2022

The Bills ....64%...up 2 pts

Day.............46%....up 1 pt

No other A-10 teams were 40% or above.

In the first C2D , at that time, KPom had us at 90...the 2nd one was 81st...Not picking on KPom ...no service had us on the radar and for @Bay Area Billiken ...the first 2 C2Ds...  I had the Bills  ranked in the upper 40s...we are  currently still tied with Boise St.  at 39th.  As I pointed out earlier, I prefer to use probability percentages. They are a better indicator of getting a bid.  We are at 64%  BSU at 59%...If it ever came down to a Committee decision, guess what they would look at ...The Bills game at BSU...case closed....QED.

So now it is onto  St. B part 1.  These are not games to be taken lightly. The Bonnies  will be hungry...they are 1 game out on the lost side from making a top 4 spot on the A-10 ladder. And as you  can see they are not listed on C2D. This is a chance over the next 2 games for them to become relevant again, remove the stain of a disappointing season so far.....A sweep by us and their season is pretty much over.  The point is ...these next 2 games are their  season ...they will not go down without a fight.

Let's see what we are dealing with on the report card....

 

...................SLU.....................St B..........................SLU.........................St B

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A........................C-.............................B-............................C+

FG%...............B.......................C.............................B+..............................B-

3P%..............B+......................C-.............................B................................D+

FT%...............A+ 17th ITN......A...............................................................

Reb...............A.........................C+.............................B+............................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off...none....Def.....PPG

Down....Off...none.....Def...none

Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...8th...up

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch

Stls......Collins....17th....up

FT%...Jimerson...96th...dn

PPG...Jimerson...91st...dn

Dou-Dou....Collins...39th...unch

FG%....Okoro....46th...up

Off Reb...Okoro...67th...dn

FTA/FGA....Linssen...30th...up

Asst/TO ratio...Jones...65th...dn

Blks...Okora...96th...new

 

St B

Blks...Osunniyi...16th

Rebs........"..........93rd

Off Rebs.."...........33rd

FG%........."...........87th

Assts...Lofton.....22nd

Stls.........."...........59th

Injury/ Illness

Brown (G)...Out for season...Illness...2/1/22

Mellouk (F)...Out indefinitely...undisclosed injury...1/17/22...No timetable for return.

Keys to the game.....

So what's the deal with St. B ?  They were supposed to be great but they are not.  They have a good starting 5  and therein lies the problem...St. B goes 5 deep...whatever they start with ...that's pretty much it...All the starters will have over 30 min ...most will be in the upper 30s.  Wear them down.  If there are any subs who come in for a few minutes ...these are the places to open up a lead.  Matchups...Osunniyi vs Okoro...this is pretty close...add Linssen, edge to SLU.......Yuri vs Lofton...Lofton is good ...Yuri is the best...advantage SLU.   Remember LaS...St. Bon is the same with much better FT shooting and a slightly  better defense. 

WWN2D2W....Hold the Bonnies to 70 pts or less ... closer to 60 than 70pts is doable.  Adway is their 3P guy ...hold him to 2   3PA ..........

St. B slash target...less than 40%/ less than 30%/ less than 15FTA......Rebs  4+ extra rebs....The Bonnies will have 11 TOs ...we need to match...let's try for another 8......Osunniyi 1 blk...Win the matchups (see Keys to the game)

Bottom line... If we win part 1 ...good chance to sweep.   Let's leave the Bonnies over the ocean (of defeat)

 

 

Assist to t/o ratio Yuri 84th up

[Bills By 40]

Just now, slufanskip said:

Assist to t/o ratio Yuri 84th up

Out of reactions, but this is awesome news. Cited as his biggest downfall and he still ranks well within the top 100 ITN in that regard. 

Fock the haters, Yuri is the best PG in the country. 

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Assist to t/o ratio Yuri 84th up

Hmmm ...not sure where that number is coming from....

In order to be listed as top 100 you need to have a 2.4 ratio.  So I checked my 3 sources...Team Rankings , Sports Direct and the gold standard...slubillikens stats. They all come up with the same answer ...  2.13 which is pretty good but not top 100.   I also checked the raw numbers and they all match too. ...ie  194 assists....91 TOs.  Again , that comes out to 194/91 = 2.13

I would be interested to know where that stat came from.

On other related , Yuri assist matters....

As you know, the more assists you have the more possible TOs you can have. So a more fair comparison would be to take the next 10 assist leaders after Yuri and see how they compare....since they may be competing at a level closer to Yuri...on that list, Yuri is 4th out of 11 on Asst/TO ratio.  But in the end there really is no comparison...He has so many more assists than anyone else that it is hard to compare his numbers to other players.   Yuri has 35 more assists  or 22% more than any other player in D1...There is Yuri in the #1 spot and then the rest of D1.

[slufanskip]

29 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Hmmm ...not sure where that number is coming from....

In order to be listed as top 100 you need to have a 2.4 ratio.  So I checked my 3 sources...Team Rankings , Sports Direct and the gold standard...slubillikens stats. They all come up with the same answer ...  2.13 which is pretty good but not top 100.   I also checked the raw numbers and they all match too. ...ie  194 assists....91 TOs.  Again , that comes out to 194/91 = 2.13

I would be interested to know where that stat came from.

On other related , Yuri assist matters....

As you know, the more assists you have the more possible TOs you can have. So a more fair comparison would be to take the next 10 assist leaders after Yuri and see how they compare....since they may be competing at a level closer to Yuri...on that list, Yuri is 4th out of 11 on Asst/TO ratio.  But in the end there really is no comparison...He has so many more assists than anyone else that it is hard to compare his numbers to other players.   Yuri has 35 more assists  or 22% more than any other player in D1...There is Yuri in the #1 spot and then the rest of D1.

From the NCAA. 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/individual/473/p2

The above was his ranking through games of 2/7. He was at 2.09, he's went up since, so probably even higher counting last nights games. According to the NCAA site listed above 2.0 is 99th place

[slufanskip]

23 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Hmmm ...not sure where that number is coming from....

In order to be listed as top 100 you need to have a 2.4 ratio.  So I checked my 3 sources...Team Rankings , Sports Direct and the gold standard...slubillikens stats. They all come up with the same answer ...  2.13 which is pretty good but not top 100.   I also checked the raw numbers and they all match too. ...ie  194 assists....91 TOs.  Again , that comes out to 194/91 = 2.13

I would be interested to know where that stat came from.

On other related , Yuri assist matters....

As you know, the more assists you have the more possible TOs you can have. So a more fair comparison would be to take the next 10 assist leaders after Yuri and see how they compare....since they may be competing at a level closer to Yuri...on that list, Yuri is 4th out of 11 on Asst/TO ratio.  But in the end there really is no comparison...He has so many more assists than anyone else that it is hard to compare his numbers to other players.   Yuri has 35 more assists  or 22% more than any other player in D1...There is Yuri in the #1 spot and then the rest of D1.

I've made that same analysis re Yuri numerous times. You can't compare a player with 4-5 assists per games ass/to ratio with a player with 8+. 

[NH]

48 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I've made that same analysis re Yuri numerous times. You can't compare a player with 4-5 assists per games ass/to ratio with a player with 8+. 

One thing I find interesting on this topic is that Yuri has an above-average turnover rate, but every other rotation player on our team has a below-average turnover rate and our team as a whole has a below average turnover rate (meaning we turn it over less per possession than the average team). Basically my takeaway is that Yuri turns the ball over at a high rate but because of the positions he puts himself in and the aggressive play making responsibility he takes on it allows other players to be extra safe with the ball. Nesbitt and Jimerson don’t have to drive into traffic or beat pressure defense because Yuri is taking that off their plate. 
 

Basically just my long winded way of saying that you can’t quantify Yuri’s impact on our ability to take care of the ball and the rate he turns it over is misleading because of his role on the team. 

[slufanskip]

35 minutes ago, NH said:

One thing I find interesting on this topic is that Yuri has an above-average turnover rate, but every other rotation player on our team has a below-average turnover rate and our team as a whole has a below average turnover rate (meaning we turn it over less per possession than the average team). Basically my takeaway is that Yuri turns the ball over at a high rate but because of the positions he puts himself in and the aggressive play making responsibility he takes on it allows other players to be extra safe with the ball. Nesbitt and Jimerson don’t have to drive into traffic or beat pressure defense because Yuri is taking that off their plate. 
 

Basically just my long winded way of saying that you can’t quantify Yuri’s impact on our ability to take care of the ball and the rate he turns it over is misleading because of his role on the team. 

But he doesn't have an above average turnover rate for players with his assist numbers or even close to his assists per game. 

This is akin to comparing 3 pt % from a guy that shoots 50 a year with a guy who shoots 200 a year. The comparison can't be made.

Here are the top 5 in the country. To give you an idea how good Yuri is he avg's 2 assists per game over #4. 

1 Yuri  8.4 / 2.13

2. Moore 7.8 / 1.62

3. Wheeler 7.2 / 2.30

4. Hall 6.4 / 1.71

5. Maldonado  6.4 / 1.87

** Average rate for the top 5 

2021-2022 = 1.90

2020-2021 = 2.08

2019-2020 = 2.02

 

 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, slufanskip said:

I've made that same analysis re Yuri numerous times. You can't compare a player with 4-5 assists per games ass/to ratio with a player with 8+. 

I agree ...The NCAA numbers are pretty much in agreement with the other data sources (except the NCAA is 2 days behind).   So the issue is how you qualify to be on the list. The TR system is using 300 min of playing time, which is a stupid way to do it. To your point , they have players that have  a total 19 assists for the year (Yuri had that in 1 game) and they qualify because they have 300 min. And the NCAA's way is not much better...you qualify if you have 3 assists per game with at least 15 games....again not making much sense...because of small sample sizes compared to Yuri's big assist numbers. Oh well, at least we found out what the discrepancy was.

I think next year , I will use a Yuri Assist Watch as he makes his assault on the all time assist leaders in D1.  If he can continue at this pace , he can become the all time leader.

[NH]

Just now, slufanskip said:

But he doesn't have an above average turnover rate for players with his assist numbers are even close to his assists per game. 

Here are the top 5 in the country. To give you an idea how good Yuri is he avg's 2 assists per game over #4. 

1 Yuri  8.4 / 2.13

2. Moore 7.8 / 1.62

3. Wheeler 7.2 / 2.30

4. Hall 6.4 / 1.71

5. Maldonado  6.4 / 1.87

 

This is akin to comparing 3 pt % from a guy that shoots 50 a year with a guy who shoots 200 a year. The comparison can't be made. 

I know what you’re saying and I agree with you completely. But I guess I’m saying that even his assist to turnover ratio is a little understated because he is also helping other players to avoid turnovers.

Another interesting thing with Yuri is that he is third in the country in assist rate on a team that shoots a ton of free throws (59th in the country in free throw rate). Obviously Yuri doesn’t get any statistical credit for passes that lead to free throws, so you can see how it’s another example of why stats can’t fully explain Yuri’s impact on offense.

[slufanskip]

3 minutes ago, NH said:

I know what you’re saying and I agree with you completely. But I guess I’m saying that even his assist to turnover ratio is a little understated because he is also helping other players to avoid turnovers.

Another interesting thing with Yuri is that he is third in the country in assist rate on a team that shoots a ton of free throws (59th in the country in free throw rate). Obviously Yuri doesn’t get any statistical credit for passes that lead to free throws, so you can see how it’s another example of why stats can’t fully explain Yuri’s impact on offense.

Agreed, Just when you say even though his turnover rate is above average, it leads to the misconception that it is above average when it's not. I have made the F/T point here before also. Just didn't have stats to quantify it

[slufanskip]

11 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

But he doesn't have an above average turnover rate for players with his assist numbers or even close to his assists per game. 

This is akin to comparing 3 pt % from a guy that shoots 50 a year with a guy who shoots 200 a year. The comparison can't be made.

Here are the top 5 in the country. To give you an idea how good Yuri is he avg's 2 assists per game over #4. 

1 Yuri  8.4 / 2.13

2. Moore 7.8 / 1.62

3. Wheeler 7.2 / 2.30

4. Hall 6.4 / 1.71

5. Maldonado  6.4 / 1.87

** Average rate for the top 5 

2021-2022 = 1.90

2020-2021 = 2.08

2019-2020 = 2.02

 

 

To add to this ... The above numbers is why I was getting so upset when posters  and even analysts and/or announcers saying he should be at about 3.0. It's ridiculously wrong

[billiken_roy]

49 minutes ago, NH said:

One thing I find interesting on this topic is that Yuri has an above-average turnover rate, but every other rotation player on our team has a below-average turnover rate and our team as a whole has a below average turnover rate (meaning we turn it over less per possession than the average team). Basically my takeaway is that Yuri turns the ball over at a high rate but because of the positions he puts himself in and the aggressive play making responsibility he takes on it allows other players to be extra safe with the ball. Nesbitt and Jimerson don’t have to drive into traffic or beat pressure defense because Yuri is taking that off their plate. 
 

Basically just my long winded way of saying that you can’t quantify Yuri’s impact on our ability to take care of the ball and the rate he turns it over is misleading because of his role on the team. 

Or maybe Yuri drives into trouble more times than he needs to.   His driving into the lane among the trees drives me crazy.  Almost as much as his poor use of screens.   But besides those 2 things, I love him.  He's exceeded my expectations.  

[willie]

4 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Or maybe Yuri drives into trouble more times than he needs to.   His driving into the lane among the trees drives me crazy.  Almost as much as his poor use of screens.   But besides those 2 things, I love him.  He's exceeded my expectations.  

I think he has gotten a little better at not getting blocked. I don’t have percentages but I think his pull up shot has been pretty good. 

[NH]

17 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

11 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Or maybe Yuri drives into trouble more times than he needs to.   His driving into the lane among the trees drives me crazy.  Almost as much as his poor use of screens.   But besides those 2 things, I love him.  He's exceeded my expectations.  

I think both things can be true. He drives into trouble sometimes when he shouldn’t, but his turnovers aren’t as bad as the numbers would suggest (and as @willie just mentioned they have gotten better)

[slufanskip]

45 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Or maybe Yuri drives into trouble more times than he needs to.   His driving into the lane among the trees drives me crazy.  Almost as much as his poor use of screens.   But besides those 2 things, I love him.  He's exceeded my expectations.  

And if he didn’t drive into the trees you’d be taking away quite a few of his assists. The way you quantify if he’s doing it too much is by his assists to t/o rate which is very good for a player with the numbers of assists he has. No one ******* when he drives the lane into the “trees” and scores or makes a pass that leads to an open shot. It’s only when it doesn’t work, those are the ones we want him to quit doing. 
 

Hell, I wish GJim would quit taking those 3’s that he misses. He’d be a much more efficient shooter. 

[slufanskip]

50 minutes ago, NH said:

I think both things can be true. He drives into trouble sometimes when he shouldn’t, but his turnovers aren’t as bad as the numbers would suggest (and as @willie just mentioned they have gotten better)

Quit. The numbers don’t suggest his turnovers are bad. Only to the clueless. The numbers actually suggest his turnovers are good 
 

To the person who has no context in baseball making An out 60% of the time seems bad. But with a little context and understanding of the game, you realize it’s actually an elite rate. 

[SLU_Lax]

I don’t think NH is saying “bad”. He is strictly talking the numbers. The numbers are above average. NH has done well I think speaking to context. 
 

Sometimes you have to take riskier plays due to shotclock, the defense stopping our first or second look on any possession, etc. Yuri handles the ball in more of those tough situations. Yuri also plays the role of creator more often. So it leads to more turnovers which isn’t always “bad”. I haven’t heard NH say “bad”. 

[NH]

4 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Quit. The numbers don’t suggest his turnovers are bad. Only to the clueless. 
 

To the person who has no context in baseball making An out 60% of the time seems bad. But with a little context and understanding of the game, you realize it’s actually an elite rate. 

No offense Skip but you're not in charge of what numbers other posters get to look at. In no way am I making the argument that Yuri is a bad player, or that turnovers are not connected to assists. I have been agreeing with you on this entire subject. I understand that the more assists one attempts the more turnovers they are also going to get.

Yuri has a very high turnover rate, as he has every year of his career at SLU. That is a fact. He has a higher turnover rate than all the other people on that assist leaderboard you mentioned. That doesn't mean he has a turnover "problem" or that I want him the change the way he plays, but it is true nonetheless. I said earlier today that Yuri should be in consideration for A10 POY. 

I'm not scared of citing real numbers even if I don't agree with the conclusion they suggest. If other people aren't able to put those numbers in context then that's on them.

[slufanskip]

52 minutes ago, NH said:

No offense Skip but you're not in charge of what numbers other posters get to look at. In no way am I making the argument that Yuri is a bad player, or that turnovers are not connected to assists. I have been agreeing with you on this entire subject. I understand that the more assists one attempts the more turnovers they are also going to get.

Yuri has a very high turnover rate, as he has every year of his career at SLU. That is a fact. He has a higher turnover rate than all the other people on that assist leaderboard you mentioned. That doesn't mean he has a turnover "problem" or that I want him the change the way he plays, but it is true nonetheless. I said earlier today that Yuri should be in consideration for A10 POY. 

I'm not scared of citing real numbers even if I don't agree with the conclusion they suggest. If other people aren't able to put those numbers in context then that's on them.

Turnover rate needs to be put into context which is what assist to t/o rate does and Yuri’s is not high. It is not higher than everyone else on the assist leader board. Posters can obviously look at any stats they want but if they’re complaining that they’re bad because they’re not putting it into proper context, I’ll continue to point out that they’re wrong. 

Would you say Mike Trout had a high out rate because he makes more outs than some other player that only takes half the at bats? No you wouldn’t because you’d put the number of outs into perspective or look at them with the proper context. 
 

Posters and you keep talking about number of turnovers but as you stated the more assists you make and the more you handle the ball the more turnovers you will have so just looking at the turnover rate or total is silly.
Would we complain about GJim’s 3 pt shooting because he has more misses than Fred Thatch or possibly ( I haven’t looked ) any one else on the team? No we wouldn’t. We would look at his % and then compare that % to shooters that have approximately the same shot volume. So when you say Yuri’s turnover rate is high, it’s actually not when you’re looking at it in the proper context. 
 

And he actually doesn’t have a higher turnover rate than everyone on the leaderboard I mentioned. Moore the 2nd guy in assists at over .5 assists per game less has more turnovers and a higher rate per game. 4.0 to 4.8 

[Taj79]

To make money, you have to spend money.  To handle the ball as much as Yuri does and assists at that rate, you'll have turnovers.  Do-do happens.  Yuri is great however the opposition is on to it.  Not only are they pressuring him all over the court, they are denying him the entry pass even when they make a basket.  Thank god he's talented.  

One item I disagree with on the Wiz' analysis .....Adaway i snot their 3P guy, Welch is.  Adaway does hit at 44% this seaon and is far and away their best in percentages but has only shot 56 treys making 25.  Adaway just impresses the shite out of me because when they need a hoop, he gets it.  Welch, Lofton and Holmes have all launched more threes than Adaway.  Welch has attempted 206 shots of which 150 are from behind the arc.  That lists at 74% of all shots Welch takes are from three where he connects at a 34% rate.  Holmes is second at 76 threes with Lofton hoisting 63.  Holmes shoots at 29%; Lofton at 32%.

Don't let Welch go off and play tight on the other three.  Holmes likes to play hero ball at times and frankly, he's not that good IMHO.

@NH --- did you make the La Salle game?  Heard you were coming; sorry to have missed you.

[NH]

10 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Turnover rate needs to be put into context which is what assist to t/o rate does and Yuri’s is not high. It is not higher than everyone else on the assist leader board. Posters can obviously look at any stats they want but if they’re complaining that they’re bad because they’re not putting it into proper context, I’ll continue to point out that they’re wrong. 

Would you say Mike Trout had a high out rate because he makes more outs than some other player that only takes half the at bats? No you wouldn’t because you’d put the number of outs into perspective or look at them with the proper context. 
 

Posters and you keep talking about number of turnovers but as you stated the more assists you make and the more you handle the ball the more turnovers you will have so just looking at the turnover rate or total is silly.
Would we complain about GJim’s 3 pt shooting because he has more misses than Fred Thatch or possibly ( I haven’t looked ) any one else on the team? No we wouldn’t. We would look at his % and then compare that % to shooters that have approximately the same shot volume. So when you say Yuri’s turnover rate is high, it’s actually not when you’re looking at it in the proper context. 

The number I was citing is Turnover Rate, which is in some context. Turnover Rate is your number of turnovers divided by your combined shots, assists, free throws and turnovers. So it's basically calculating what percentage of times that player X is making a play with the ball does he turn it over. Yuri's number is 28.6%, which is very high. This link has the typical formula: https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/turnover-ratio/

If you want me to go with that baseball comparison, I would say that there have been several seasons in which Mike Trout had a very high strikeout rate. In 2014 he struck out in 26% of times he came to the plate, which is a lot. But that doesn't mean he was doing something wrong. It couldve been because he was working deeper into counts or trying to hit more homers.  

As you've said, obviously just looking at turnovers per game or total turnovers is way too simplistic to accurately judge what is happening on the court. But even Assist to Turnovers doesn't give the full context. With a player like Yuri who is asked to do so much in our offense, no number or formula is going to be able to explain his impact.