The Bills over St. B by 7... part 1

[3star_recruit]

6 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

I think that is something that has changed completely over the last few weeks, probably after @Dayton. He hasn't really been doing that for a couple weeks, but when it was happening 3-4 times a game, it was pull-your-hair-out infuriating

Yuri still drives the ball into the trees, he just hasn't been turning it over as much.  We've grown so accustomed to Yuri driving deep into the paint, getting surrounded and making those very short passes to Linssen or Okoro that we think it's normal.  It's not.  That's very hard to do.

[slufanskip]

16 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

I think that is something that has changed completely over the last few weeks, probably after @Dayton. He hasn't really been doing that for a couple weeks, but when it was happening 3-4 times a game, it was pull-your-hair-out infuriating

So basically all his turnovers were due to driving into the bigs? 

[SShoe]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

i do want him to change his style of play.   i want to see him push the ball down the floor either by passing sooner to guys streaking down the floor or dribbling at a faster pace down the floor and then passing sooner.   i do not want the walk up and working the shot clock to the last second while our opponents are firmly ready and in place.   and then ends up yuri driving into the trees and trying to score over a guy a foot taller than him..

We certainly do this towards the end of games.  I get doing that when you have a double digit lead with less than 4 minutes to go.  Just not before then.  We are just so much better when Yuri is pushing the ball up the floor quickly. 

[3star_recruit]

2 minutes ago, SShoe said:

We certainly do this towards the end of games.  I get doing that when you have a double digit lead with less than 4 minutes to go.  Just not before then.  We are just so much better when Yuri is pushing the ball up the floor quickly. 

The slowdown normally coincides with full court pressure by the other team.  We still don't have a good solution for that.  Yuri attempting to run through the double teams hasn't worked and slowing down and utilizing the pass hasn't worked.  Turnovers result either way but at least with the latter, more time comes off the clock. 

We did do a much better job of taking care of the ball down the stretch against La Salle.  I noticed Nesbitt took on more ballhandling responsibility against the Explorers and that did appear to help.  I need to see more, against better opponents.

[A10Ref]

Yuri's been keeping his dribble going these past few games. He still attacks but when nothing is there he's able to dribble it out. He's been the most fun point guard I have watched in a long time. I hope it continues throughout the rest of the season. If so, we may be in for something special.

[CBFan]

57 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

The slowdown normally coincides with full court pressure by the other team.  We still don't have a good solution for that.  Yuri attempting to run through the double teams hasn't worked and slowing down and utilizing the pass hasn't worked.  Turnovers result either way but at least with the latter, more time comes off the clock. 

We did do a much better job of taking care of the ball down the stretch against La Salle.  I noticed Nesbitt took on more ballhandling responsibility against the Explorers and that did appear to help.  I need to see more, against better opponents.

I have seen improvements with inbounding and bringing the ball up with pressure.  Okoro comes back and will get a pass and as you said Nesbitt will bring the ball up.

The weak links when opponents apply full court pressure are Jimerson and Hargrove.  When there is pressure one of those 2 need to be on the bench.

I think Thatch starting has helped he is not intimidated with pressure and it’s nice having Jones on the bench to help out.

[Littlebill]

1 hour ago, slufanskip said:

So basically all his turnovers were due to driving into the bigs? 

I'm not referring to the turnovers, more the bad shots that got blocked

[Littlebill]

2 minutes ago, CBFan said:

I have seen improvements with inbounding and bringing the ball up with pressure.  Okoro comes back and will get a pass and as you said Nesbitt will bring the ball up.

The weak links when opponents apply full court pressure are Jimerson and Hargrove.  When there is pressure one of those 2 need to be on the bench.

I think Thatch starting has helped he is not intimidated with pressure and it’s nice having Jones on the bench to help out.

Huge disagree on Gib. Gets a lot more open shots on the other end when we successfully break the press.

We've been really good at breaking the press these last few games. We are playing our best basketball of the year. We don't need to change unless the other teams forces us to. And that has only happened when they throw a FC flash trap instead of the token pressure on Yuri. 

[cgeldmacher]

17 hours ago, slufanskip said:

And if he didn’t drive into the trees you’d be taking away quite a few of his assists. The way you quantify if he’s doing it too much is by his assists to t/o rate which is very good for a player with the numbers of assists he has. No one ******* when he drives the lane into the “trees” and scores or makes a pass that leads to an open shot. It’s only when it doesn’t work, those are the ones we want him to quit doing. 
 

Hell, I wish GJim would quit taking those 3’s that he misses. He’d be a much more efficient shooter. 

Driving into the lane where the other team's bigs are is what collapses the defense and opens up all of his assist opportunities.  Average point guards get their assists from the top of the key.  Super human point guards like Yuri get their assists from the lane despite being only 6 foot.

[CBFan]

1 minute ago, Littlebill said:

Huge disagree on Gib. Gets a lot more open shots on the other end when we successfully break the press.

We've been really good at breaking the press these last few games. We are playing our best basketball of the year. We don't need to change unless the other teams forces us to. And that has only happened when they throw a FC flash trap instead of the token pressure on Yuri. 

Fair enough little bill I trust your judgment over players than mine.

The team has improved greatly with pressure and defense with the exception of the Mason game.  The team has also improved with less turnovers.

[NoCoBillsFan]

Bonnies are gonna roll in here with their gassed starting 5 and get slapped worse than Dayton. Repeat of 2020 Senior Night, Bills by 23.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Coaches like Schmidt at St. Bona, McKillop at Davidson, even Grant this year at Dayton, thrive on half court chess matches.  Slowing down plays right into their hands.

[billiken_roy]

3 hours ago, slufanskip said:

For what it’s worth, we have the 24th highest scoring offense in the country while having the 90th best FG% and the 58th best 3pt %

Skip if haven't seen the walkup particularly at about the 5 minutes to go mark when we have a lead, you aren't paying attention.  The same on the fruitless drives into the lane.

[slufanskip]

32 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Skip if haven't seen the walkup particularly at about the 5 minutes to go mark when we have a lead, you aren't paying attention.  The same on the fruitless drives into the lane.

I’m not saying he hasn’t slowed it down at times but honestly how many points has that cost us? And are we assuming that gas we done something different the results would have been different? Sounds mostly like Monday morning QB from a bunch of MBM’s. Do we know that we didn’t preserve a win or 2 that we may have lost had we not slowed it down a bit to limit possessions the last few minutes? 
 

I wouldn’t say I’ve never thought “Damn Yuri, that was an I’ll advised drive. However, you can’t just take away the bad ones. Doesn’t work that way. I want Yuri to continue attacking the lane, even into the so called trees. Imo the good far, far outweighs the bad

[Minerva N. Owl]

58 minutes ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

Bonnies are gonna roll in here with their gassed starting 5 and get slapped worse than Dayton. Repeat of 2020 Senior Night, Bills by 23.

Senior Night 2020 was great fun. Here is a two-minute video summary: March 7, 2020. Mardi Gras parade day. Very festive atmosphere that night. SLU 72, Bonnies 49. No masks. Not even really any thought of COVID. It felt like the last normal thing before everything changed a few days later. We all had a great feeling about the A10 tournament, that we could beat Dayton, who was on a long win streak. But the last time we played St. Bonaventure, it was awful. Their defense completely shut down the Bills, who couldn't sink anything. Let's skip that, and repeat March 7, 2020. 

[ACE]

Regarding tempo - I hear a lot of coaches say that the time for rest is actually on offense, NOT defense.  So keep in mind that Ford expects the team to give max effort on D.  If you have a long stretch with no whistle, that's a lot to be expecting guys to bust their ass on D for sometimes 20-25 seconds and maybe 2-3 possessions in a row, and then go all out on a break. I love when Yuri pushes it, but also understand that there may be times when the guys are gassed and need to walk it up and regroup.

[Old guy]

Team Rankings just published its Vegas line. SLU is expected to win over St. Bona by 6.5 pts, they lowered their confidence level from 4 stars to 3 stars. I assume this was done because the Vegas line was lower in SLU's favor than they  anticipated. This is again identical to the Wiz's model prediction.

[The Wiz]

Injury update

Rashad Williams...(G)...Ques...Back...2/9/22...Sat out previous game with back injury and it is unclear whether he will suit up for Fri game against St. B

[NH]

9 hours ago, slufanskip said:

I wouldn’t say I’ve never thought “Damn Yuri, that was an I’ll advised drive. However, you can’t just take away the bad ones. Doesn’t work that way. I want Yuri to continue attacking the lane, even into the so called trees. Imo the good far, far outweighs the bad

Also, how many times have we seen someone other than Yuri drive into trees and make a bad pass? Almost never. Which is because nobody has to because Yuri is asked to be the playmaker on basically every play for this team. Goodwin was a great player but he turned it over way more than Jimerson or Nesbitt do, because he was being asked to make more plays than they are.

Yuri is like a QB who is either running or passing on every play. We never just ask him to hand it off to someone else. And that strategy has led to maybe the best offense we’ve had in 10+ years

[Bills71]

Buffalo Article on Schmit saying they Are confident. Lays out the coach's plan

 

 

https://www.tapinto.net/towns/greater-olean/sections/sports/articles/confident-bonnies-will-battle-red-hot-saint-louis-friday

[CBFan]

4 hours ago, Bills71 said:

Buffalo Article on Schmit saying they Are confident. Lays out the coach's plan

 

 

https://www.tapinto.net/towns/greater-olean/sections/sports/articles/confident-bonnies-will-battle-red-hot-saint-louis-friday

Thank you for sharing the article.

I think every coach’s plan is to stop Yuri.

The Bonnie’s feel better about themselves and confident after beating the Dukes seems to be a stretch that they are back.

The article said Okoro is 6’ 9” and undersized, I think Okoro looks like a strong man to me.

All games are dangerous and tough play like you are playing Dayton at home no matter who the opponent is.  The Bonnie’s are tough and well coached but thin get the job done Billikens.

[cheeseman]

Didn't read anything in the article that every coach has said and tried to do this year.  

[Bills By 40]

3 hours ago, CBFan said:

I think every coach’s plan is to stop Yuri.

The article said Okoro is 6’ 9” and undersized, I think Okoro looks like a strong man to me.

And nobody is able to execute on that plan because Yuri is unstoppable.

Bolded because that was the dumbest thing I've ever read. Okoro is carved like a statue and is playing stronger every game. Bad analysis on that guy's part. 

[Cowboy II]

8 hours ago, Bills71 said:

Buffalo Article on Schmit saying they Are confident. Lays out the coach's plan

 

 

https://www.tapinto.net/towns/greater-olean/sections/sports/articles/confident-bonnies-will-battle-red-hot-saint-louis-friday

-a nicely written article, thanks for the link

[Old guy]

Watching TR prior to a game is a way to determine what the betting public's expectation of the outcome is. Before they published their Vegas line, TR had SLU at 4 stars of confidence to win this game. This is to be taken as the result of their computer calculations with no public input. However when they started publishing their Vegas line, initially at 6.5 pt advantage for SLU, they reduced the star confidence level to 3 stars. This morning they have the Vegas line down to 5 pt advantage for SLU and they have reduced their star confidence level to 2.

This shows how TR uses the public expectation level to modify their own predictive outcomes, clearly showing the relationship between public expectation and their predictions.

Needless to say, public expectation has nothing to do with actual play or the ability of a team to dominate in a game, it has a lot to do with what people think (based, I suppose, upon media reports) the outcome will be. I believe the Wiz's play analysis is a much better approach than this "vox populi vox dei" approach taken by TR.

SLU continues being underestimated by the media and the public. This provides an advantage to those comparing various analysis systems for their personal use. Similarities between what goes on in sports outcomes analysis and market sentiment analysis should be obvious.