The Bills over St. B by 7... part 1

[Schasz]

18 hours ago, Old guy said:

Team Rankings just published its Vegas line. SLU is expected to win over St. Bona by 6.5 pts, they lowered their confidence level from 4 stars to 3 stars. I assume this was done because the Vegas line was lower in SLU's favor than they  anticipated. This is again identical to the Wiz's model prediction.

Looked at ESPN this morning and it showed Bills -5. My best friend told me he was in Tahoe on his annual ski trip. I was happy he bet on the Vols at -1.5 Tues. Told him he should bet the Bills tonight. He advised me so far he is 5 for 5 on college games. 

[willie]

1 hour ago, Schasz said:

Looked at ESPN this morning and it showed Bills -5. My best friend told me he was in Tahoe on his annual ski trip. I was happy he bet on the Vols at -1.5 Tues. Told him he should bet the Bills tonight. He advised me so far he is 5 for 5 on college games. 

Wins or losses

[Taj79]

I'd take that bet too.

[Bills71]

A10 talk article written by a Bunnies fan , nice write up.

 

https://www.a10talk.com/bonnies-to-face-red-hot-billikens-in-st-louis-on-friday/

[gister]

15 hours ago, Bills71 said:

Buffalo Article on Schmit saying they Are confident. Lays out the coach's plan

 

 

https://www.tapinto.net/towns/greater-olean/sections/sports/articles/confident-bonnies-will-battle-red-hot-saint-louis-friday

"with confidence spewing from their ears."  I don't know that I've heard that before.  Where does confidence normally spew from?

[Old guy]

The Vegas line for the game tonight is down to 4.5 pts favoring SLU.

[Taj79]

Vegas' job is to make the books money.  The drop of a point doesn't mean much to me.  I think it means more folks are taking the Bonnies so let's lower the Billiken advantage and get some equality over there.  

[brianstl]

Cleared for takeoff 

[Schasz]

8 hours ago, willie said:

Wins or losses

Wins and all college games...said he was staying away from NBA with all the trades made.

[The Wiz]

Tough loss because this was a winnable game.

If you will permit me , I would like to take a time out for a short rant. For those who read my posts , you know I am a numbers, stats , probability and data analysis guy.  But I would to go a different direction during the rant....a little strategy.

From the original post , you may remember I said that one of the keys to the game was St. B's depth.  They have 5 starters and that is pretty much it.  When Osunniyi ,one of their key players, got into foul  trouble, the backup forward Coulibaly came in and played 14 min...He scored 4 pts ..did ok but is no Osunniyi.  With 5 min and 8 sec left in the game...Coulibaly fouls out. The Bills at that time were down 55-50.  Osunniyi comes back into the game carrying 4 fouls. I remember thinking at that time, we have got them.  We need to do whatever it takes to draw that 5th foul on Osunniyi.  Why was that important? Because St. B had no one left to put in .  Their choice was to put in their last forward Durosinmi who has never scored a pt for St. B or the best remaining guard  Adams...a guy who averages 2.6 pts a game with a 36% FT average.  Essentially, it would have been a 5 minute power play  for the Bills playing 5 on 4.   The move I would have made at the 5 min mark would have been to have both Linssen and Okoro playing at the same time.  We would either get the 5th foul fast or if Osunniyi backs off we get a lot of points in the paint.....Rant over

As for the numbers...this can be summed up with 1 word ...turnovers...during the win streak we have averaged around 10 TOs a game...tonight we had a dismal 18... ..we lose on Pts off TOs 16-6.. There is the game right there ...That doesn't even consider the 7 or 8 shots we didn't take  as a result of the TOs.

We could talk about the weak 3 pt shooting we had but we beat them at the arc ..29% -23%...we could talk about the poor FT shooting of 7-12...but they shot  the same.  We out rebounded them by 9 and held them to less than the targeted 70 pts in the original post.

The cloak  of this loss hangs on the coat rack of turnovers.

Bottom line...We lost but are still the better team. They did not beat us....We gave them the game. Or should I say , we turned the game over to them.  Want to win the next game...get rid of 7 or 8 TOs. One last thing related to TOs ...The Bonnies average 5 steals per game . Tonight they had 12...that shouldn't happen. Protect the ball.

Play Billiken ball on Monday and win.

[mrjoelabs]

Whiz, I said exactly that to the party I was with.  Twin towers and either foul or push him out. They had nothing left. But Ford is too dumb to realize this.  
 

Whenever I coach my team If the opposition only has one big man and he gets in foul trouble we foul him out of the game… seems simple but I guess not 

[The Wiz]

5 minutes ago, mrjoelabs said:

Whiz, I said exactly that to the party I was with.  Twin towers and either foul or push him out. They had nothing left. But Ford is too dumb to realize this.  
 

Whenever I coach my team If the opposition only has one big man and he gets in foul trouble we foul him out of the game… seems simple but I guess not 

Did you also tell the party you were with that ..."The Bills are the better team"?

[mrjoelabs]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Did you also tell the party you were with that ..."The Bills are the better team"?

Absolutely.  We are better at almost every position. Lofton schooled Yuri a bit but this game was all about poor coaching and bad plays. Not talent 

[Gremio14]

6 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Tough loss because this was a winnable game.

If you will permit me , I would like to take a time out for a short rant. For those who read my posts , you know I am a numbers, stats , probability and data analysis guy.  But I would to go a different direction during the rant....a little strategy.

From the original post , you may remember I said that one of the keys to the game was St. B's depth.  They have 5 starters and that is pretty much it.  When Osunniyi ,one of their key players, got into foul  trouble, the backup forward Coulibaly came in and played 14 min...He scored 4 pts ..did ok but is no Osunniyi.  With 5 min and 8 sec left in the game...Coulibaly fouls out. The Bills at that time were down 55-50.  Osunniyi comes back into the game carrying 4 fouls. I remember thinking at that time, we have got them.  We need to do whatever it takes to draw that 5th foul on Osunniyi.  Why was that important? Because St. B had no one left to put in .  Their choice was to put in their last forward Durosinmi who has never scored a pt for St. B or the best remaining guard  Adams...a guy who averages 2.6 pts a game with a 36% FT average.  Essentially, it would have been a 5 minute power play  for the Bills playing 5 on 4.   The move I would have made at the 5 min mark would have been to have both Linssen and Okoro playing at the same time.  We would either get the 5th foul fast or if Osunniyi backs off we get a lot of points in the paint.....Rant over

As for the numbers...this can be summed up with 1 word ...turnovers...during the win streak we have averaged around 10 TOs a game...tonight we had a dismal 18... ..we lose on Pts off TOs 16-6.. There is the game right there ...That doesn't even consider the 7 or 8 shots we didn't take  as a result of the TOs.

We could talk about the weak 3 pt shooting we had but we beat them at the arc ..29% -23%...we could talk about the poor FT shooting of 7-12...but they shot  the same.  We out rebounded them by 9 and held them to less than the targeted 70 pts in the original post.

The cloak  of this loss hangs on the coat rack of turnovers.

Bottom line...We lost but are still the better team. They did not beat us....We gave them the game. Or should I say , we turned the game over to them.  Want to win the next game...get rid of 7 or 8 TOs. One last thing related to TOs ...The Bonnies average 5 steals per game . Tonight they had 12...that shouldn't happen. Protect the ball.

Play Billiken ball on Monday and win.

All true; but we did foul Osun out….the hack on Nesbitt was the hack heard around the world.  The refs swallowing their whistles on that one distinct play was shocking….I don’t think their was a person in Chaifetz, including Coach Mark, who did not think that was a clear foul.  Unfrickingbelievable…..

[cheeseman]

8 minutes ago, Gremio14 said:

All true; but we did foul Osun out….the hack on Nesbitt was the hack heard around the world.  The refs swallowing their whistles on that one distinct play was shocking….I don’t think their was a person in Chaifetz, including Coach Mark, who did not think that was a clear foul.  Unfrickingbelievable…..

Not to say we lost this game because of the refs but they did have an impact - I agree the 18 TOs were the key and especially because many of them happened during that 16-0 run - but, there were several no calls the refs made in the paint that should have gone our way.  

[Schasz]

7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Tough loss because this was a winnable game.

If you will permit me , I would like to take a time out for a short rant. For those who read my posts , you know I am a numbers, stats , probability and data analysis guy.  But I would to go a different direction during the rant....a little strategy.

From the original post , you may remember I said that one of the keys to the game was St. B's depth.  They have 5 starters and that is pretty much it.  When Osunniyi ,one of their key players, got into foul  trouble, the backup forward Coulibaly came in and played 14 min...He scored 4 pts ..did ok but is no Osunniyi.  With 5 min and 8 sec left in the game...Coulibaly fouls out. The Bills at that time were down 55-50.  Osunniyi comes back into the game carrying 4 fouls. I remember thinking at that time, we have got them.  We need to do whatever it takes to draw that 5th foul on Osunniyi.  Why was that important? Because St. B had no one left to put in .  Their choice was to put in their last forward Durosinmi who has never scored a pt for St. B or the best remaining guard  Adams...a guy who averages 2.6 pts a game with a 36% FT average.  Essentially, it would have been a 5 minute power play  for the Bills playing 5 on 4.   The move I would have made at the 5 min mark would have been to have both Linssen and Okoro playing at the same time.  We would either get the 5th foul fast or if Osunniyi backs off we get a lot of points in the paint.....Rant over

As for the numbers...this can be summed up with 1 word ...turnovers...during the win streak we have averaged around 10 TOs a game...tonight we had a dismal 18... ..we lose on Pts off TOs 16-6.. There is the game right there ...That doesn't even consider the 7 or 8 shots we didn't take  as a result of the TOs.

We could talk about the weak 3 pt shooting we had but we beat them at the arc ..29% -23%...we could talk about the poor FT shooting of 7-12...but they shot  the same.  We out rebounded them by 9 and held them to less than the targeted 70 pts in the original post.

The cloak  of this loss hangs on the coat rack of turnovers.

Bottom line...We lost but are still the better team. They did not beat us....We gave them the game. Or should I say , we turned the game over to them.  Want to win the next game...get rid of 7 or 8 TOs. One last thing related to TOs ...The Bonnies average 5 steals per game . Tonight they had 12...that shouldn't happen. Protect the ball.

Play Billiken ball on Monday and win.

Agree with your synopsis of last nights missed opportunity; however, I cannot remember when the last time a Bills team went to the Bonnies crib and got a win. Pretty certain it has not bee a Travis Ford Coached team. By the way, while I bring up CTF he was out coached last night. When the Bonnies changed their defense we had zero answers last night. We got a very tough assignment to pick up a win at their place on Monday.

[3star_recruit]

4 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Not to say we lost this game because of the refs but they did have an impact - I agree the 18 TOs were the key and especially because many of them happened during that 16-0 run - but, there were several no calls the refs made in the paint that should have gone our way.  

Getting to the line is a big part of our offense.  The refs swallowing their whistle changed the entire flow of the game.  Despite being hit almost every time we went to the basket, we only went to the line 12 times last night.

[brownwolves]

This was a must win game for the Bonaventure. A tiny Catholic University stuck out in the middle of nowhere victorious over a large 20 thousand Jesuit school from a major city. We have more to win for than you big city slickers. AND your poster 3star recruit is trying to blame the loss on the Ref's. Shame on you.

As for the next game on Monday February 14,  it will be another SBU vs SLU slugfest. The Billikens will come out swinging and the Bonnies will be bobbing and weaving with a dash of rope-a-dope tossed in just praying for that bell to ring victory at the end of the 15th round. The only outcome that really matters is the A10 Conference Championship game.

We support our Canadian students  and those that encourage Liberty in Canada.

 

 

 

[VeniceMenace]

"They did not beat us....We gave them the game."

 St. B was stealing the ball left and right. Got to give them credit, they played great D as a team.

[Old guy]

All I can say is sh-t happens, and it did last night. We held our own as well as we could, it really could have been a lot worse had we disintegrated as a team last night. JImerson played with a fresh, painful (nose injuries hurt a lot), actively bleeding injury that required an anterior nose pack. No one could demand an extraordinary level of  performance from someone playing under such conditions.

We will see what happens in the second game.

[slufanskip]

9 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Getting to the line is a big part of our offense.  The refs swallowing their whistle changed the entire flow of the game.  Despite being hit almost every time we went to the basket, we only went to the line 12 times last night.

We shot 12 F/T's. For me a trip to the line is the sequence. 1 or 2 shots. It was a very loosely officiated game though but it seemed equally loose both ways to me. 

[HoosierPal]

4 hours ago, slufanskip said:

We shot 12 F/T's. For me a trip to the line is the sequence. 1 or 2 shots. It was a very loosely officiated game though but it seemed equally loose both ways to me. 

I watched the replay today, and yes it was fair.  The refs missed a few on both sides, but they did not influence who won and who lost.

I was a little surprised today when I saw the attendance at only 7,914.  It looked like more to me than that.

[wgstl]

Barely tuned in this time. Probably been talked about by now, but im still puzzeled as to why we hardly if ever went down the low the final 5 minutes with Osunniyi having 4 fouls.  He was going to have to play charmin soft since they have NO ONE else. 

 

Also it didnt matter much, but the near 50% FT shooting, at home, wasnt great to see. 

 

Also Okoro had a steller few minutes stretch, but I thought he wasnt very good in most of his minutes.  His O eff. was good, but his D was below average(for him), and way too many TO's or plays that dont count as TO's but are the same thing.