The Bills over St. B by 7... part 1

[slufanskip]

24 minutes ago, NH said:

The number I was citing is Turnover Rate, which is in some context. Turnover Rate is your number of turnovers divided by your combined shots, assists, free throws and turnovers. So it's basically calculating what percentage of times that player X is making a play with the ball does he turn it over. Yuri's number is 28.6%, which is very high. This link has the typical formula: https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/turnover-ratio/

If you want me to go with that baseball comparison, I would say that there have been several seasons in which Mike Trout had a very high strikeout rate. In 2014 he struck out in 26% of times he came to the plate, which is a lot. But that doesn't mean he was doing something wrong. It couldve been because he was working deeper into counts or trying to hit more homers.  

As you've said, obviously just looking at turnovers per game or total turnovers is way too simplistic to accurately judge what is happening on the court. But even Assist to Turnovers doesn't give the full context. With a player like Yuri who is asked to do so much in our offense, no number or formula is going to be able to explain his impact. 

I’ll admit I haven’t seen that stat. Help me out though using the formula on the site 

turnovers = 91 divided by

shots = 210 + Free throws ( x.44 ) = 35 + assists = 194 + turnovers = 91 for a total of 539

91 divided by 539 = 16.8% not 28.6% with 91 turnovers to be at 28.6% he’d have only made a play 320 times. 
 

And really that’s not even a great formula as the odds for making a turnover is much greater making a pass than it is shooting a 3 or a mid range jumper. All plays are not created equal regarding odds if a turnover 
 

[NH]

9 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

I’ll admit I haven’t seen that stat. Help me out though using the formula on the site 
 

I don’t know enough about the specifics of the numbers to calculate it but I agree with what you had and so the link I posted must be wrong, my bad. I get the numbers from KenPom or Bart Torvik. I agree that type of stat has limitations, which has really been my point all along. I also don’t think assist to turnover ratio tells the full story, because I think 10 assists and 6 turnovers is more impressive than 2 assists and 1 turnover. 

I agree with what you’re saying about Yuri. Sometimes he makes a bad decision or makes a sloppy pass or drives into traffic. But somebody has to attempt risky plays in a game and Yuri makes the right decision more often than not.

[slufanskip]

16 minutes ago, NH said:

I don’t know enough about the specifics of the numbers to calculate it but I agree with what you had and so the link I posted must be wrong, my bad. I get the numbers from KenPom or Bart Torvik. I agree that type of stat has limitations, which has really been my point all along. I also don’t think assist to turnover ratio tells the full story, because I think 10 assists and 6 turnovers is more impressive than 2 assists and 1 turnover. 

I agree with what you’re saying about Yuri. Sometimes he makes a bad decision or makes a sloppy pass or drives into traffic. But somebody has to attempt risky plays in a game and Yuri makes the right decision more often than not.

Another thing that formula doesn’t take into account is every time Yuri or a point guard brings the ball up under pressure but doesn’t get the assist/shot/free throw/or make a turnover. That’s a play that happens a dozen or more times a game and apparently doesn’t count. At 28.6 t/o rate with 4 turnovers a game it would seem Yuri only has about 15 possible times a game he could make a turnover, which is ludicrous. I guarantee you his number where he passes, shoots, handles the ball while being closely defended, etc… would be 40+ times a game. Makes 4 turnovers seem pretty good. A pg like Yuri literally has a possible t/o every Bills possession 

All this is why I will continue to push back against the idea that Yuri’s turnovers are too high. 
 

It’s like the idea ( and I know you’re not disagreeing) he shouldn’t drive into the bigs. If he didn’t do that he wouldn’t make many of the plays he makes and the rest of our team wouldn’t get many of the open shots the get. You can’t just take away the bad, you’d have to take away the good results when he does it also which imo would be a negative. If half his t/o’s per game are due to driving into bigs ( and it’s not that many, but for the sake of discussion we’ll say it is ) and the opponent scores 1 pt per possession, they get 2 points a game from it. I guarantee the positive far outweighs 2 pts a game. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

St. Bonaventure's 5 starters average 36.3 minutes per game.  St. Bona is 13-7 overall, 8-2 at Home, 2-3 Away, and 3-2 Neutral.  St. Bona is 5-4 in the A10.

Common opponents are Boise State (both won), LaSalle (both won), Dayton (SLU split, St. Bona lost by 18 at UD), Duquesne (both won), George Mason (SLU won, St. Bona lost) and Richmond (SLU won, St. Bona lost).

SLU is 13-14 all-time vs. St. Bona, 8-5 at Home, 2-7 Away, and 3-2 on Neutral floors.  SLU is 5-4 vs. the Bonnies at Chaifetz Arena.  SLU is 1-2 vs. the Bonnies in the A10 Tournament.  I've personally been at 3 of the games, with SLU going 2-1.

SLU is the favorite in the Home game Friday night, is a very slight favorite in the Road game Monday, which is close to a toss up.

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, Taj79 said:

To make money, you have to spend money.  To handle the ball as much as Yuri does and assists at that rate, you'll have turnovers.  Do-do happens.  Yuri is great however the opposition is on to it.  Not only are they pressuring him all over the court, they are denying him the entry pass even when they make a basket.  Thank god he's talented.  

One item I disagree with on the Wiz' analysis .....Adaway i snot their 3P guy, Welch is.  Adaway does hit at 44% this seaon and is far and away their best in percentages but has only shot 56 treys making 25.  Adaway just impresses the shite out of me because when they need a hoop, he gets it.  Welch, Lofton and Holmes have all launched more threes than Adaway.  Welch has attempted 206 shots of which 150 are from behind the arc.  That lists at 74% of all shots Welch takes are from three where he connects at a 34% rate.  Holmes is second at 76 threes with Lofton hoisting 63.  Holmes shoots at 29%; Lofton at 32%.

Don't let Welch go off and play tight on the other three.  Holmes likes to play hero ball at times and frankly, he's not that good IMHO.

@NH --- did you make the La Salle game?  Heard you were coming; sorry to have missed you.

I am glad you brought this up. When I write the game analysis , they are just short summaries of the huge volume of stats that the computer churns out. I pick out highlights, condense them and try to put them in simple form to make them readable and yet convey the essence of the game.  I don't have time to write a detailed report that would cover all the nooks and crannies and the average basketball fan wouldn't want to take a lot of time pouring over a large volume of data and analysis.

Your post though will give me a chance to explore 1 nook briefly so you can see  why I wrote what I did.  In other words ...Why I only mentioned Adaway in my report.

To paraphrase Hamlet....To 3 or not to 3 that is the question.

St. B 's  2P% projection for Fri is expected to be 49.6%....Hold that thought.

In the chart below , I will list the 3P% averages ...then the projected 3P% average against the Bills 3PtD...and finally convert the 3P% into the 2P% equivalent

..............3P% ave.....proj 3P% on Fri................2P% equivalent of the 3 (3P% x1.5)

Welch....34%....................32.56%.................................48.8%

Lofton....31.7%..................30.36%.................................45.5%

Holmes...28.9%..................27.68%................................41.5%

Adaway...44.6%.................42.71%.................................64.1%

I wrote that Adaway was their 3P guy because he is the only one that can do serious damage to us from the arc.  Are you still holding that 49.6% 2P shooting percent? Good...Because anyone shooting less than that on the equivalent 2P shot is helping us.  Every shot that Welch takes from 3 he is giving up .8% advantage to us....Every time Holmes shoots it is an 8.1% Bills advantage....Lofton from the arc gives us a 4.1% margin....Only Adaway hurts us...a 14.5% hurt. He doesn't shoot much ...let's keep it that way. While his sample size is small compared to the others it is large enough to show he is for real... The last thing you want is to have him take a lot of shots.  If the others want to shoot , let them shoot away as long as they aren't open shots.

Yeah but those other guys take a lot more shots than Adaway...reminds of the store keeper who was giving away free cans of beer. A customer asked him ...how do you make any money?...The store keeper replied....I make it up on volume.

Vegas built their huge palaces on the Strip by pushing their advantage on every bet.   The Bills need to push their edges against St. B in the next 2 games.

 

 

 

[billiken_roy]

i dont agree with the comparison with strikeouts.   in baseball, an out is an out.   doesnt matter to me if it is a strikeout of a fabulous over the shoulder catch by the centerfielder.   its still an out and pretty much the same result.  they get to take a seat on the bench.

[cheeseman]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

i dont agree with the comparison with strikeouts.   in baseball, an out is an out.   doesnt matter to me if it is a strikeout of a fabulous over the shoulder catch by the centerfielder.   its still an out and pretty much the same result.  they get to take a seat on the bench.

Well a ground out to the right side that advances the runner into scoring position or moves them from second to third with less than 2 outs is not simply an out like any other out.  A sacrifice fly or bunt that does the same is also not the same as any other out.  

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, cheeseman said:

Well a ground out to the right side that advances the runner into scoring position or moves them from second to third with less than 2 outs is not simply an out like any other out.  A sacrifice fly or bunt that does the same is also not the same as any other out.  

40-50 years ago i would have agreed that's a good point.  these days you dont see a lot of these sacrifice scenarios you paint above.   they are rare with todays major league players that are only worried about batting average and homeruns so they can get a big contract.  in fact if steve trout bunts in the 5th inning in a july game to advance a runner to second, i bet he gets yelled at by his manager.    

[cheeseman]

19 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

40-50 years ago i would have agreed that's a good point.  these days you dont see a lot of these sacrifice scenarios you paint above.   they are rare with todays major league players that are only worried about batting average and homeruns so they can get a big contract.  in fact if steve trout bunts in the 5th inning in a july game to advance a runner to second, i bet he gets yelled at by his manager.    

Well, Stan the Man would probably not have been asked to bunt.  What you are saying is that you are now OK with is what the game has turned into and not necessarily what is best for the game overall.  Danny Mac says one way to improve the flow and excitement of the game is to put the ball in play like moving runners over and cutting down on strikeouts which slow the game down because of how long an at bat lasts and pitchers continuing violating the 12 second rule which is not enforced. I get that the players want the home run for contract purposes but that is not what is best for the overall game. When runners are running and hitters are hitting the game is faster and more exciting. 

[Matty Light]

32 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

40-50 years ago i would have agreed that's a good point.  these days you dont see a lot of these sacrifice scenarios you paint above.   they are rare with todays major league players that are only worried about batting average and homeruns so they can get a big contract.  in fact if steve trout bunts in the 5th inning in a july game to advance a runner to second, i bet he gets yelled at by his manager.    

Any time Steve Trout bunted a guy over the Cubs were pleased with result. The guy couldn't hit like Sutcliffe or Maddux.

[Old guy]

Wiz, thank you very much for your short description of edges and advantages as computed by your sports model. It is impressive, and I can see a direct relation to similar analysis translated to  the market. I really appreciate your sharing in this regard.

Oh, Team rankings just gave SLU a  4 star confidence rating for winning the 1st game against St. Bona.

[billiken_roy]

21 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Well, Stan the Man would probably not have been asked to bunt.  What you are saying is that you are now OK with is what the game has turned into and not necessarily what is best for the game overall.  Danny Mac says one way to improve the flow and excitement of the game is to put the ball in play like moving runners over and cutting down on strikeouts which slow the game down because of how long an at bat lasts and pitchers continuing violating the 12 second rule which is not enforced. I get that the players want the home run for contract purposes but that is not what is best for the overall game. When runners are running and hitters are hitting the game is faster and more exciting. 

oh i would much rather we had the old days.   i am a baseball purist and detest the way the game has changed because of free agency and long term contracts.   but it is what it is thus, your scenario is now the rare exception rather than the rule.   i cringe when in a big game a player tries to bunt and has no clue.    my gosh back in the day all the players could bunt.   some like rod carew or campy campanearas (sp?) could put a bunt on a penny laying 20 feet away.   but i dont think there is a single player these days that carries that skill.   

so no i am not ok with it.   just saying that is what the game has become.  

[slufanskip]

3 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

i dont agree with the comparison with strikeouts.   in baseball, an out is an out.   doesnt matter to me if it is a strikeout of a fabulous over the shoulder catch by the centerfielder.   its still an out and pretty much the same result.  they get to take a seat on the bench.

A better analogy with baseball would be 

In 1981 Ozzie Smith played 986 innings at SS and had 16 errors 

In 2003 David Eckstein played 985 innings at SS and only had 8 errors.
 

Presented like this without context or additional stats, it’d be pretty easy for someone to assume Eck was a much better fielding SS in 2003 than Ozzie was in 1981

However, we have stats that make that statement ludicrous. Clearly we can see Ozzie allowed 8 more runners to reach base. What additional stats that put those errors into context also show us is that Ozzie made 156 more plays. These are all ground balls hit near the SS. Maybe you could assume that half those were still just routine ground balls ( and that’s probably a stretch ) but even with that Ozzie prevented 78 additional runners from reaching base than David Eckstein did. If you account for the 8 more errors Ozzie made he still prevented 70 additional base runners. Ozzie could have made 3 times the errors as Eck and he still have been a better fielder. Looking at Errors alone doesn’t paint an accurate picture. 
 

Looking at turnovers alone doesn’t either.

 

[3star_recruit]

Yuri is on track to be the greatest point guard in not just Billiken history, but possibly A10 history.  Over time, the numbers will speak for themselves.  The next point guard that comes in here and only averages 4 apg will be criticized for not being more like Yuri.

[slufan13]

Do I wish Yuri turned it over less? Sure absolutely. But do I wish Yuri would change his style of play in order to cut down on turnovers? No not really. Yes he makes his fair share of simply bad turnovers (who doesn't?) but most of his turnovers are just a result of him attempting to make a special play that he still makes more times than not.

[brownwolves]

No excuse, Covid has taken a toll on St Bonaventure University and the entire Southern Tier of New York and Northern Tier of Pennsylvania.

I think the Billikens have the advantage over the Bonnies. Looking at two loses against SLU and a Bonnie victory in the A10 Tournament. 

See you in Olean - mask up glove up and keep your distance. 

Support the Canadians

[Billikenbooster]

Always good to hear from you, BI.

What a difference from the Qman from VCU.

Good luck after Monday.

[Old guy]

Brown Indian, Team Rankings is supporting your assessment about the next two games between SLU and St. Bona. I do not mean to insult you or put you down but I hope the outcome of the A10 tournament will not go the way you say.

All the best.

[Taj79]

Brownie!  How you been?  You know as well as I do that this home-and-home will result in some blood, bruises and lots of fun.  Always best wishes.  But in a few days, not now.

[billiken_roy]

59 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

Do I wish Yuri turned it over less? Sure absolutely. But do I wish Yuri would change his style of play in order to cut down on turnovers? No not really. Yes he makes his fair share of simply bad turnovers (who doesn't?) but most of his turnovers are just a result of him attempting to make a special play that he still makes more times than not.

i do want him to change his style of play.   i want to see him push the ball down the floor either by passing sooner to guys streaking down the floor or dribbling at a faster pace down the floor and then passing sooner.   i do not want the walk up and working the shot clock to the last second while our opponents are firmly ready and in place.   and then ends up yuri driving into the trees and trying to score over a guy a foot taller than him..

[dennis_w]

2 hours ago, cheeseman said:

Well, Stan the Man would probably not have been asked to bunt.  What you are saying is that you are now OK with is what the game has turned into and not necessarily what is best for the game overall.  Danny Mac says one way to improve the flow and excitement of the game is to put the ball in play like moving runners over and cutting down on strikeouts which slow the game down because of how long an at bat lasts and pitchers continuing violating the 12 second rule which is not enforced. I get that the players want the home run for contract purposes but that is not what is best for the overall game. When runners are running and hitters are hitting the game is faster and more exciting. 

surprisingly stan sacrificed 35 time in his career

[slufanskip]

10 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i do want him to change his style of play.   i want to see him push the ball down the floor either by passing sooner to guys streaking down the floor or dribbling at a faster pace down the floor and then passing sooner.   i do not want the walk up and working the shot clock to the last second while our opponents are firmly ready and in place.   and then ends up yuri driving into the trees and trying to score over a guy a foot taller than him..

Yuri is one of the best I’ve ever seen at pushing the ball down the floor quickly with the pass. 
 

How many times a game does Yuri turn the ball over from this drive into trees thing he does so often? 
 

I think the times that we have numbers in our favor and Yuri still just walks the ball up the floor is slim to none. If we have an advantage he pushes the ball. Are you wanting him to push it even when we don’t? I’m not being a smart ass, but I’m not sure I’m getting what you want. 
 

id love for someone to note the game times of the possessions where Yuri disregards a number advantage and walks the ball up

[Taj79]

I will be the second guy in the pool advocating no slow down or walk up ball.  However, game circumstances dictate what you are doing.  Ford has 25 years of coaching experience to default back on.  Seems to me he starts pulling the plug with a lead at about the 7 or 8 minute mark.  This obviously did not work against Belmont, Auburn and UAB.  But with the three point shot, no lead is really that safe.  I think we do better at a faster pace.  We are the top scoring team in the A10 are we not?  One or two empty trips, somebody like Kobe Elvis hits a pair of threes, and a 12 point lead is down to six.  

I don't think there is really a solid answer one way or the other.

[slufanskip]

24 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i do want him to change his style of play.   i want to see him push the ball down the floor either by passing sooner to guys streaking down the floor or dribbling at a faster pace down the floor and then passing sooner.   i do not want the walk up and working the shot clock to the last second while our opponents are firmly ready and in place.   and then ends up yuri driving into the trees and trying to score over a guy a foot taller than him..

For what it’s worth, we have the 24th highest scoring offense in the country while having the 90th best FG% and the 58th best 3pt %

[Littlebill]

51 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Yuri is one of the best I’ve ever seen at pushing the ball down the floor quickly with the pass. 
 

How many times a game does Yuri turn the ball over from this drive into trees thing he does so often? 
 

I think the times that we have numbers in our favor and Yuri still just walks the ball up the floor is slim to none. If we have an advantage he pushes the ball. Are you wanting him to push it even when we don’t? I’m not being a smart ass, but I’m not sure I’m getting what you want. 
 

id love for someone to note the game times of the possessions where Yuri disregards a number advantage and walks the ball up

I think that is something that has changed completely over the last few weeks, probably after @Dayton. He hasn't really been doing that for a couple weeks, but when it was happening 3-4 times a game, it was pull-your-hair-out infuriating