The Wiz Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Chance to Dance The Bills...56%...up Dav............46%...unch VCU............42%...dn Aub seems like ages ago. But the fact remains ...we still had a chance to win that game with 2 seconds left to go. I can tell you, we don't have anyone left on our schedule that is even close to Aub. We have the capacity to win all the remaining games. Our toughest opponent going forward will be ourselves. Next up UMass (C+ )...We are still at A-.... For a forecaster these are tough times...as both teams have a number of people on the injury/ illness list. With all the variables that go into a basketball game not knowing who will play has now moved to the top of the random list. This will be an unusual game with some interesting challenges. UMass has a very good offense.. though not as good as ours. They are 10th ITN in 3P shooting. This is why this game is as close as it is. If they get hot from the arc, it could spell trouble. They have four 3 pt shooters...one now is out for the season with a broken leg and another is questionable with illness (see injury/illness report below) But that still leaves the Kellys (CJ and R...not related) both shooting at nearly an unbelievable 50%. They both take more 3s than 2s. So it will be important to slow them down. While there is danger on the horizon, there is also some good news. UMass has one of the worst defenses ITN. We will have our opportunities...we just need to capitalize on them. Another factor, which will be a plus for us, is they aren't vary good at rebounding. Again, we need to take advantage of this...2nd chance pts...Bills ..yes...UMass ..no. Time to look at the report card.... ....................SLU....................Mass..........................SLU.........................Mass .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A+..17th ITN......A-..............................C..............................F FG%...............B+......................B................................C-............................F-..11th WITN 3Pt%.............A-........................A+..10th ITN..............B-............................F FT%...............B+......................C+................................................................. Reb...............B+.......................F................................A..............................C- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off....Reb.....Def....Reb Down....Off...FG%...3P%...FT%.....Def...PPG...FG%...3P% Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...unch FTA/gm....The Bills....4th...unch FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...2nd...dn FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........5th...up Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins...1st...unch...you can't do better than best Stls......Collins....22nd....up Mass Assts...Fernandes...29th 3P%...CJ Kelly...78th...R Kelly....91st Injury/ Illness report SLU Williams...G...12/26/21... Illness ...Questionable...Remains to be seen if he will play Thur Courtney..."........".............."....................".........................."...................."...................."............. Mass Walker.........F...12/7/21...Fractured Femur...Out for season Fernandes..G....12/26/21...Illness...Questionable...Remains to be seen if he will play Thur TJ Weeks....G.........".............."................."........................."......................".................".............. Long way to go till game day...I will update the injury/illness report if things change. WWN2D2W Stop the 3...Keep them as a team below 40% from the arc. Slow the Kellys down...keep them to 21 pts combined...hold the next 2 high scorers not named Kelly to 21 combined also. We need to dominate the boards ..by at least 5...we should be able to go double digits. TOs could be an issue...not because they are adept at forcing them but because they are good at holding onto the ball...no more than 12 TOs. Bottom line ...This has the potential to be a high scoring game...a shootout ...a battle of the 3s. If we play perimeter defense and grab some rebs ...the Minutemen's time may run out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 We could have won the AUB, the UAB, and the Belmont games. We, unfortunately did not. What these games point to is the fact that we can play a really contested game against top teams. So, let's go Bills and win some games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Can we win a 50/50 game on the road in conference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shempie Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Thanks Wiz. WWN2D2W Forgot one…. Stay out of covid protocol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Taj79 said: Can we win a 50/50 game on the road in conference? We beat Boise State on the road. Boise State is a better team than UMass. That’s not a guarantee we’ll beat UMass because it’s one game and anything can happen. It does show we can win a road game vs a good team though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 hour ago, RUBillsFan said: We beat Boise State on the road. Boise State is a better team than UMass. That’s not a guarantee we’ll beat UMass because it’s one game and anything can happen. It does show we can win a road game vs a good team though. And we beat Boise in OT...the ultimate close out game... at one of the tougher venues in the country.... The Bills have a 66% chance to beat Mass at their place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Sure ...... I hear you both. But over the last four years, the Billikens are 12 and 19 on the road in conference play. Every year, I map out the schedule and games and see these kind of games as the 50/50 or "swing" games. Win a few swing games and you are on your way. Every year is a new year BUT until the Bill sshow me proof and actually win on the road in conference, I will hold my breath. The holidays. COVID. No game since 12/22. Lots of reasons to hold breath on this one. BilliesBy40 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Good 3 pt shooting teams always scare me. And against us they don’t seem to have off nights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Taj79 said: Sure ...... I hear you both. But over the last four years, the Billikens are 12 and 19 on the road in conference play. Every year, I map out the schedule and games and see these kind of games as the 50/50 or "swing" games. Win a few swing games and you are on your way. Every year is a new year BUT until the Bill sshow me proof and actually win on the road in conference, I will hold my breath. The holidays. COVID. No game since 12/22. Lots of reasons to hold breath on this one. I do the same...In my preseason forecast I always show 3 W-L records...best case , worst case and most probable....These are not always 50-50 games but games that are close enough that the could go either way. The best case shows we win them all ....the worst case shows we lose them all....or most probable shows we split them. in this year's forecast, there were 6 maybe games. In my probable forecast, I use 3-3...I then force the computer to make a choice and it showed us 4-2. So far, we are 1-1-1 against against Boise, Aub and Drake....although right before the Drake cancellation the model moved the outcome to a win for SLU...too bad, that would have been a nice win. UMass is NOT one of those "swing games. That game was showing in the win column in the preseason forecast and is still in that column now. As I pointed out in my original post and slu72 emphasized in his post above, their 3 point shot could come up and bite us. I am showing they will make a eleven 3's. If they make more than that , we may have a problem. Again, as I pointed out in the original post, as long as we get the rebounds , we should be OK...more 2nd chances for us and less for them. You and slu72 can now come in off the ledge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 -they are 7th ITN in 3pt% at basically 40%, we shoot 35 -they are very efficient on offense (high effective FG% and low turnovers) and terrible on defense -yet the Wiz and KenPom have us to win -what Bills team shows up in Amherst? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 38 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -they are 7th ITN in 3pt% at basically 40%, we shoot 35 -they are very efficient on offense (high effective FG% and low turnovers) and terrible on defense -yet the Wiz and KenPom have us to win -what Bills team shows up in Amherst? And how do the Bills play the last 5 minutes of the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonny karate Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Can't wait it's gonna be great! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I'm not on a ledge ...... I am being very calm but realistic. I've seen too many times us go to places like Pittsburgh, Olean and Davdison with superior talented teams and still lose. So bear with me while I wait to see results. Now, larry72, yeah .. he's a ledge walker for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG BILL FAN Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, Taj79 said: I'm not on a ledge ...... I am being very calm but realistic. I've seen too many times us go to places like Pittsburgh, Olean and Davdison with superior talented teams and still lose. So bear with me while I wait to see results. Now, larry72, yeah .. he's a ledge walker for sure. almost every road game is difficult, not just for the Bills... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, Taj79 said: I'm not on a ledge ...... I am being very calm but realistic. I've seen too many times us go to places like Pittsburgh, Olean and Davdison with superior talented teams and still lose. So bear with me while I wait to see results. Now, larry72, yeah .. he's a ledge walker for sure. Every game. billiken_roy and The Wiz like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Are the Billikens flying to Massachusetts today for Thursday’s game @UMass? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said: Are the Billikens flying to Massachusetts today for Thursday’s game @UMass? Likely tomorrow afternoon Bay Area Billiken likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Sad face. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hmart23 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 -how can the entire league get Covid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
someoneelse Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Fricking fantastic! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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