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Path to NCAA Tourney


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1 minute ago, A10Ref said:

(Nevada and Butler playing their best bball right now). 

Butler is playing some of their worst basketball of their season.  Thompson is out for the year. Xavier though has one of their weaker teams in a few seasons.  Someone has to win.

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1 minute ago, HoosierPal said:

Butler is playing some of their worst basketball of their season.  Thompson is out for the year. Xavier though has one of their weaker teams in a few seasons.  Someone has to win.

i am just saying butler has 9 total wins and 2 have come in their last three. So they are by no means hot lol but not horrendous as they were imo.

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Lets look at those teams right on the edge.

Boise - Will likely go 1-1

CSU - should win 1 before facing Utah state

Utah state - should win 1 before facing Colorado state

Cuse - They play NC state, a loss is a double bingo for us, also likely to only go 1-1

X - likely to go 1-1

Bottom like, the MWC is probably the #1 thing to watch.  A few moving parts for us. 

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Our best hope to make the NCAAT is to Hope enough bubble teams lose, and we end up as one of the first 2 teams out. If a couple teams end up with COVID in the next 2 weeks we could make it.

 

How ironic would it be if the disease that ruined our season and knocked us out of the tournament ends up being what puts in back in. 

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1 hour ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Our best hope to make the NCAAT is to Hope enough bubble teams lose, and we end up as one of the first 2 teams out. If a couple teams end up with COVID in the next 2 weeks we could make it.

 

How ironic would it be if the disease that ruined our season and knocked us out of the tournament ends up being what puts in back in. 

I'm not necessarily wishing COVID upon some college kids, but it would be totally awesome if we end up as a one of the 1st few teams out and end up getting a high seed because a team has to miss due to COVID.

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2 hours ago, wgstl said:

Lets look at those teams right on the edge.

Boise - 1st game vs Nevada 64% chance Boise wins.  Nevada won both games during the regular season (by 2 pts and 11 pts, but both were @ Nevada  Will likely go 1-1

CSU - plays winner of Frenso St & New Mexico.  Won all 3 vs those teams during the regular season.  None were very close, but all were home games for CSU should win 1 before facing Utah state

Utah state - plays winner of UNLV & Air Force.  Split 2 @ UNLV and won both @ Air Force  should win 1 before facing Colorado state

Cuse - huge game for SLU 45% chance Syracuse wins.  NC State lost by 3 @ Cuse earlier in the year.  They play NC state, a loss is a double bingo for us, also likely to only go 1-1

X - 1st game vs Butler.  67% chance X wins.  X won @ Butler pretty easily early in the year.  likely to go 1-1

Bottom like, the MWC is probably the #1 thing to watch.  A few moving parts for us. 

I added some info above to this in red with KenPom odds of various results.  

Path to the tournament is:

1. We schedule a decent Q1/Q2 game and win preferably on the road.

2. Nevada beats Boise St & they drop behind us.  CSU demolishes Utah State when they meet in the semi-final which pushes Utah St behind us(?).  In terms of realistic results, I think we've got to root for Boise as the early upset in the MWC because an upset of either CSU or Utah St probably just means that the other one has an easier path to a bid and that leaves us with 2 of 3 MWC bubble teams still making it.

3. NC State beats Cuse to keep them behind us & marginally boost our resume.

4. No other upsets occur that may shuffle this or steal bids

We sneak into Boise State's spot?

Our other hope is for similar results to play out without Boise losing and X loses to Butler which drops them behind us.  If the NCAA gave MWC 4 bids and A10 only 2 that would be a travesty because A10 is stronger conference overall.  Therefore, this may be a better path for us since I can't see all 3 MWC bubble teams making it.

Other pitfalls:

The next 2 teams behind us not listed above Seton Hall / St Johns play each other.  One will be bounced from the bubble for sure.  The other moves on to likely play Villanova (sans Collin Gillespie) or Marquette/G-Town winner.  I could see a weakened Nova losing that game which would be bad for us. 

SMU has Cincinnati in their 1st AAC tourney game and then likely gets Wichita State in the next round.  Not out of the realm of possibility they beat Wichita State, but that may just swap the teams positions IN or OUT.

Ole Miss has to beat SC to get a game vs Arkansas in the SEC tourney.  They'd need to beat the Razorbacks to move their needle.

Likewise Memphis has the UCF/East Carolina winner before they'd likely play Houston.  They need to beat Houston to move their needle.

Won't give up hope yet!  Why do I do this to myself...

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All I know is these conference tournaments and March madness is going to be absolutely insane, and it is a lot more fun to be in the mix (even on the wrong side currently) than well out of contention. I can guarantee this crazy covid year will finish crazier than it started. 
 

I’ve been sick to my stomach thinking about how much Saturday sucked and how much this year has let me down. But my goodness do I take this over being absolutely mediocre (aka 00’-10’ and 14’-18’).

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That Drake schedule of assorted cupcakes and cream puffs would make the good folks at Underbrink's Bakery in Quincy very proud.  My favorite radio rolls have to be somewhere in that Drake schedule, perhaps disguised as Nebraska-Omaha, or keeping it all in Illinois, Chicago State.

Drake succeeded where former Minnesota Governor Jesse "The Body" Ventura failed in successfully uniting the Dakotas.

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4 hours ago, wgstl said:

Image

Lets look at those teams right on the edge.

Boise - Will likely go 1-1

CSU - should win 1 before facing Utah state

Utah state - should win 1 before facing Colorado state

Cuse - They play NC state, a loss is a double bingo for us, also likely to only go 1-1

X - likely to go 1-1

Bottom like, the MWC is probably the #1 thing to watch.  A few moving parts for us. 

I hope Lunardi is wrong, very wrong.  I do not see the NCAA Committee giving the Mountain West Conference, which is only the 12th ranked conference per Conference NET, 3 NCAA Tournament bids.  Nor do I see the Mountain West getting 4 in the NCAA, which the NET currently yields.  Rather I see the Mountain West as a 2 bid league.

Per the NET:

Last 4 NCAA Byes:  43 Boise State, 44 SAINT LOUIS, 45 Missouri, 47 Drake.

Last 4 NCAA IN:  48 Utah State, 49 Syracuse, 50 Colorado State, 51 Louisville.

First 4 OUT:  52 Memphis, 53 Ole Miss, 56 SMU, 57 Xavier.

Next 4 OUT:  58 Seton Hall, 60 Duke, 61 Indiana, 62 Davidson.

Where's Wichita State (65), believed to be IN as the regular season AAC Champion?

Where is Michigan State and Izzo? MSU is 67, the 5th from last NIT team.  We all know they are going to let Michigan State IN, and Michigan State is going to be given someone more worthy's bid.  I fear it will be SLU's.

I am a realist.  I realize SLU's NCAA hopes are in trouble.

 

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30 minutes ago, Bonner89 said:

Give it up. It's over.

St. Louisan Yogi Berra:  "It's not over until it's over."

John Belushi in Animal House:  "Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"  

It is not yet over.  On Sunday at 5 p.m. Central it will be over, one way or the other.

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15 hours ago, A10Ref said:

All I know is these conference tournaments and March madness is going to be absolutely insane, and it is a lot more fun to be in the mix (even on the wrong side currently) than well out of contention. I can guarantee this crazy covid year will finish crazier than it started. 
 

I’ve been sick to my stomach thinking about how much Saturday sucked and how much this year has let me down. But my goodness do I take this over being absolutely mediocre (aka 00’-10’ and 14’-18’).

Actually this is far worse because this season should have been so much more.  Missing the tournament (if that happens) this season is the kind of thing that makes fans think the program is cursed and lose faith.

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