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45 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

Here's some three-point shooting numbers from a D-2 school.  Shooting around 60% unguarded is pretty common at the college level.

 

Good post. My opinion looks to have clearly been wrong. 

No need to good post this lol. 

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23 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Sorry that my expectations upset you. My expectations have nothing to do with the teams actual performance, at least I don't think they do. 

 I go into every game not just wanting or hoping we will win, but believing it. My disappointment wouldn't be less just because I thought we could lose this one. I'm equally disappointed every time we lose. 

Maybe if I just think we could lose every game, I'll never really be disappointed. 

I honestly believe at the end of the year this year we were one of the top 30-40 teams in the country. We've added Jimerson, an accomplished big, plus a potentially starting caliber player in Thatch. Plus I believe Yuri, TJ, and Bell will make big jumps this year. Yep, I think top 16 is possible and even likely, so I'm not sure why I would try and convince myself otherwise just to temper my disappointment. We literally have 7 or 8 guys that could start on any Billiken team I've ever watched including the Majerus tourney teams and 10 guys that would be in the top 6 or 7. 

Don't cheat yourself jump in the waters is nice

Nothing you said upsets me.  However you did say in this post both that you “believe” we are going to be a top 30-40 team and that it is “likely” that we will be a top 16 team.  I agree that I think we should end the season as a top 40 team.  If we do, I’ll be happy.  I don’t think we’ll end up at quite the level of a 4 seed.  So, I think we’ll end up somewhere between a 10 seed and a 5 seed.

Now understand, the following is only for me.  If I thought that a 5 to 10 seed is reasonable, but then started to get caught up in the excitement, and later convinced myself that we should be at least a 4 seed, and I posted about that on this board and convinced myself that it is true, then I’d be setting myself up for disappointment.  If I tell myself that logically we should be a 5 to 10 seed and then we end up a 3 or 4 I’ll be ecstatic and feel like we overachieved a bit. I just don’t see the point, as a fan, of over expecting, more so than experts and other similar fans of the team, and then going into the season with a not so great chance of the meeting my highly set expectations. 

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2 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

Nothing you said upsets me.  However you did say in this post both that you “believe” we are going to be a top 30-40 team and that it is “likely” that we will be a top 16 team.  I agree that I think we should end the season as a top 40 team.  If we do, I’ll be happy.  I don’t think we’ll end up at quite the level of a 4 seed.  So, I think we’ll end up somewhere between a 10 seed and a 5 seed.

Now understand, the following is only for me.  If I thought that a 5 to 10 seed is reasonable, but then started to get caught up in the excitement, and later convinced myself that we should be at least a 4 seed, and I posted about that on this board and convinced myself that it is true, then I’d be setting myself up for disappointment.  If I tell myself that logically we should be a 5 to 10 seed and then we end up a 3 or 4 I’ll be ecstatic and feel like we overachieved a bit. I just don’t see the point, as a fan, of over expecting, more so than experts and other similar fans of the team, and then going into the season with a not so great chance of the meeting my highly set expectations. 

We just see things differently. If I thought we were about the 40th best team and lost in the 1st round I wouldn't be any less disappointed than I would be if I thought we were the 10th best team and lost in the 1st round. Either way we lost in the 1st round. Since I've been a fan 30 years, we've yet to lose a tournament game I didn't think we could win. And in my mind if we can win we should win. 

I meant 30-40 at the end of last season and our improvements will make us top 15 ish. If we make the sweet 16 and lose I'll be equally disappointed regardless of any expectations coming in because I'll go into that game believing we can and should win. 

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3 hours ago, slufanskip said:

We just see things differently. If I thought we were about the 40th best team and lost in the 1st round I wouldn't be any less disappointed than I would be if I thought we were the 10th best team and lost in the 1st round. Either way we lost in the 1st round. Since I've been a fan 30 years, we've yet to lose a tournament game I didn't think we could win. And in my mind if we can win we should win. 

I meant 30-40 at the end of last season and our improvements will make us top 15 ish. If we make the sweet 16 and lose I'll be equally disappointed regardless of any expectations coming in because I'll go into that game believing we can and should win. 

We're probably not that far off of each other.  My expectations this season are that we make the tournament and win at least one game.  Short of that would cause me to be disappointed.  I, frankly, don't care what seed we are, as long as we win that first game.  So, I don't care if we are a top 40 team or a top 16 team.  I also believe that once we are in, the style of game we will bring to the tournament will be one that could surprise a lot of teams, even a 1 seed.

Once we win that first game, I will be really pulling for us to win the second one and make our first Sweet 16 ever.  Given that we've never gotten to the Sweet 16, I am not going to set my expectations that we should make it that far.  I'm just going to enjoy being in the Round of 32 and hope we make history.

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41 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Memphis in at #33.

Interesting write-up on Penny U.  14 players are listed as keys and from the narrative, none of them sound like walk-on's so Penny has some dirty work to do before the season starts.  Of course, the big Final Four year for Penny U. will be next year when they have the amazing one-and-done superstar added to their roster, along with 2 or 3 other 2021 recruits giving Penny U an unfair advantage over all other NCAA D1 schools by having 15-16 scholarship players.

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Bauman, recall this line from the 1960s "everybody plays the fool, no exception to the rule"? Let's say that Nesbitt heard just what he wanted to hear from Memphis. Let's just say that he will learn something valuable, likely something else than what he expects, out of his coming experience at Memphis.

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6 hours ago, Old guy said:

Bauman, recall this line from the 1960s "everybody plays the fool, no exception to the rule"? Let's say that Nesbitt heard just what he wanted to hear from Memphis. Let's just say that he will learn something valuable, likely something else than what he expects, out of his coming experience at Memphis.

1972

image.thumb.jpeg.f52037106b24a81ab64689ff4a65be24.jpeg

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On 9/14/2020 at 11:00 AM, slu72 said:

My guess is we will be in the 39-35 grouping. UR will be ranked a little lower. Which I don't get since we waxed them on their home court last year and both teams haven't changed except we improved our bench with the addition of Linssen and have Jimerson and Thatch back at full speed. Any Loretsson sightings? 

 

On 10/1/2020 at 9:16 AM, Taj79 said:

I think we will come in at #36 which is within the next seven days.  I think they will list Richmond at #25 ..... which I don't agree with but nobody asked me.

Taj and 72, you guys did better than me.  I had us in the 43-46 range.

An interesting pick today at #32;  Ok St U, the school who fired a really good coach-Thanks OSU administration.  The read on OSU is confusing.  They lose 4 of 5 starters, and only return one player who averaged more than 5.0 PPG.  They do have the # 1 recruit, a 6'8" guard, who just happens to be related to one of the Assistant Coaches  (They learned this from watching SPUMAC/CM)  Even with a big time recruit it's hard to see them as #32 in the country.  The most questionable comment was that they would be capable of beating anyone in the B 12, even though they are picked 6th in the conference

Next is #31 which matches what Rothstein rated us as.  Still no Richmond

Wasn't it just last year when this website picked us as #143?

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Yea, I don't get the OSU write-up either.  It's one guy.  

I'm out of the running.... 36 came and went with no Bills yet.  I like the 'before and after' idea but Top 144 would have to do its own final ranking because comparing it to Sagarin or Pomeroy would be apples to oranges.  I might try it in a down  moment.

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3 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Yea, I don't get the OSU write-up either.  It's one guy.  

I'm out of the running.... 36 came and went with no Bills yet.  I like the 'before and after' idea but Top 144 would have to do its own final ranking because comparing it to Sagarin or Pomeroy would be apples to oranges.  I might try it in a down  moment.

You got plenty of those these days. 

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On 6/28/2020 at 8:55 AM, tarheelbilliken said:

I stole this from the A10 Forum. Usually nothing of value on that forum. This although is good post showing how useless this Top 144 is by illustrating what was predicted last year and what really happened in the A10:

 

 
How did Welser do last year?
1. VCU #22, NET #68
2. Davidson #42, NET #75
3. Dayton #51, NET #3
4. URI #79, NET #57
5. Bona #101, NET #122
6. SLU #143, NET #49
Unranked
Richmond NET #38
Duquesne NET# 94
UMass NET #132
Obviously, he underrated the league by quite a bit. Richmond and SLU by a mile, and Duquesne and Dayton by a significant margin. Let's see if he can do better this year.

Larry 72, last June I listed the comparison for last season. Not very accurate and I would think it will be even less this season with all the uncertainties.

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26 minutes ago, tarheelbilliken said:

Larry 72, last June I listed the comparison for last season. Not very accurate and I would think it will be even less this season with all the uncertainties.

The only value of the top 144 is as a gauge of the A10's national perception.   Jon Rothstein is the only name guy who has deep knowledge of the A10.

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15 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

The only value of the top 144 is as a gauge of the A10's national perception.   Jon Rothstein is the only name guy who has deep knowledge of the A10.

Sorry 3 star, but I have to strongly disagree with your "only value" comment.

I see lots of value, without regard to their ranking process.  The site gives us one place to go to read about 100+ teams that we would otherwise not have a clue about.  We can learn who they have coming back, who has left the program, how much is expected of their additions, either FR or transfers, their coaches records, how long their coach has been at the school and how they fit into their intra-conference ranking.  In addition, it provides college basketball discussion material when little is otherwise available.

The fact that they rated us #143 last year and in the top 30 this year is understandable based on who we had returning leading into last year along with the fact that none of our incoming FR were ranked highly by any national recruiting source.  Top 30 this year is also understandable based on what we all know (hope we know) about the 20-21 roster.  I'm just glad that they do not seem to pay attention to the idiot J Lunardi, who seems to have a case of the @$$ about either the Bills or T Ford.

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1 hour ago, bauman said:

Sorry 3 star, but I have to strongly disagree with your "only value" comment.

I see lots of value, without regard to their ranking process.  The site gives us one place to go to read about 100+ teams that we would otherwise not have a clue about.  We can learn who they have coming back, who has left the program, how much is expected of their additions, either FR or transfers, their coaches records, how long their coach has been at the school and how they fit into their intra-conference ranking.  In addition, it provides college basketball discussion material when little is otherwise available.

The fact that they rated us #143 last year and in the top 30 this year is understandable based on who we had returning leading into last year along with the fact that none of our incoming FR were ranked highly by any national recruiting source.  Top 30 this year is also understandable based on what we all know (hope we know) about the 20-21 roster.  I'm just glad that they do not seem to pay attention to the idiot J Lunardi, who seems to have a case of the @$$ about either the Bills or T Ford.

Good point.  But as far as the A10 itself, it's practically useless.

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bauman's point is valid but so too is 3-star's.  Case(s) in point ..... the Rhode Island write-up was done before their boatload of transfer refugees landed.  They have to be plussed up some.  Ditto Umass what with Fernandez getting eligible.  Maybe so for the Bonnies and their transfer.  You really don't know.  But it's all a snapshot in time with discussion points galore.  I'm thrilled to be Top Thirty and am now hoping for Top 25.

As for Lunardi, if we are not even given the opportunity to see Gonzaga, Michigan State, Auburn, BC, etc., then we are not given the opportunity to even make waves.  When Dayton went to Maui and lost the title game to Kansas in OT (I believe) notice was served and Dayton hit the national radars.  If we sit in limbo or with lesser opponents in the OOC, rising to a noticeable level will be much harder and likely impossible.  There are no glaring headlines saying "Daivd Beats Goliath" and without one or two of those, the status quo remains intact and the rich get richer.

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30 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

bauman's point is valid but so too is 3-star's.  Case(s) in point ..... the Rhode Island write-up was done before their boatload of transfer refugees landed.  They have to be plussed up some.  Ditto Umass what with Fernandez getting eligible.  Maybe so for the Bonnies and their transfer.  You really don't know.  But it's all a snapshot in time with discussion points galore.  I'm thrilled to be Top Thirty and am now hoping for Top 25.

As for Lunardi, if we are not even given the opportunity to see Gonzaga, Michigan State, Auburn, BC, etc., then we are not given the opportunity to even make waves.  When Dayton went to Maui and lost the title game to Kansas in OT (I believe) notice was served and Dayton hit the national radars.  If we sit in limbo or with lesser opponents in the OOC, rising to a noticeable level will be much harder and likely impossible.  There are no glaring headlines saying "Daivd Beats Goliath" and without one or two of those, the status quo remains intact and the rich get richer.

Has MSU opportunity been scrapped? 

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