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17spots left

ALMOST IN: USC
TIER ONE:  Wisconsin, Texas Tech

TIER TWO: Michigan,, St Mary’s, Indiana

TIER THREE: Arkansas, BYU, VCU, Memphis, NC State, Florida, Virginia, and Rhode Island, Minnesota, Stanford

TIER FOUR: N. Iowa, Oklahoma, Alabama,  VTech, Purdue, and St Louis

TIER FIVE: Yale, Tulsa, Miss St, Cincy, Xavier, Texas, DePaul, ETSU, and Richmond

ALMOST OUT: Arizona State and Washington (play each other Saturday, loser has no chance)

Tiers one to three (17 teams) are in the tournament, Tiers four and five are trying to get in with those in four slightly closer.

Bills are back end Tier four, low end tier five

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2 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

FWIW (not much), Palm has us as the second to last team in the field as of his latest bracket (updated this morning).

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Rhode Island also a "Last 4 in" and Richmond a "First 4 out"

Dayton a 2 seed and VCU a 9 seed. 

As much as I love the Billikens I truly think that if the season ended today we would be one of the next 4 out. As long as we win 1 of 3 against VCU, URI, DAY, and don’t lose any others we have a solid chance 

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2 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

As much as I love the Billikens I truly think that if the season ended today we would be one of the next 4 out. As long as we win 1 of 3 against VCU, URI, DAY, and don’t lose any others we have a solid chance 

Honestly, I think we need 2 of those 3. This team has 1 Q1 win (Richmond) and one bad loss (@Davidson). They need more of the former and no more of the latter (which you said later in the post). Kansas State is close to being another Q1 win, which would help tremendously, as would a revenge win over Duquense. 

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58 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

FWIW (not much), Palm has us as the second to last team in the field as of his latest bracket (updated this morning).

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Rhode Island also a "Last 4 in" and Richmond a "First 4 out"

Dayton a 2 seed and VCU a 9 seed. 

I would lose my mind in a First Four match-up in Dayton against Shaka

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50 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said:

Honestly, I think we need 2 of those 3. This team has 1 Q1 win (Richmond) and one bad loss (@Davidson). They need more of the former and no more of the latter (which you said later in the post). Kansas State is close to being another Q1 win, which would help tremendously, as would a revenge win over Duquense. 

I'm being pedantic here but @Davidson is still only a Q2 loss. So not "bad." Our problem is just that we lack a signature win or two.

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1 hour ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

As much as I love the Billikens I truly think that if the season ended today we would be one of the next 4 out. As long as we win 1 of 3 against VCU, URI, DAY, and don’t lose any others we have a solid chance 

At the end of the day we need a better resume than Duquesne, Richmond or Rhode Island.  I think that's 13-5 and a win the A10 tournament but if Rhode Island keeps playing at their present level, it will take more than that.

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1 hour ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

As much as I love the Billikens I truly think that if the season ended today we would be one of the next 4 out. As long as we win 1 of 3 against VCU, URI, DAY, and don’t lose any others we have a solid chance 

I think the must win games to put us on the bubble (assuming no unexpected losses) are Duq. and either VCU/URI.

If we add a win against VCU, then we are on the right side of the bubble.

If we do something crazy and also add a W against DAY then we are definitely in. 

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3 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said:

I'm being pedantic here but @Davidson is still only a Q2 loss. So not "bad." Our problem is just that we lack a signature win or two.

We agree on your second point. I hope you are right on the first, but I think a sub-100 loss gets held against SLU. 

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3 minutes ago, JettFlight5 said:

We agree on your second point. I hope you are right on the first, but I think a sub-100 loss gets held against SLU. 

Only if we can't win a couple of big games in the A10 down the stretch.  And in that scenario, we won't really be in play as an NCAA tourney team anyway. 

I think we can disregard the Dav. loss.  This is all going to come down to the 4 games against Duq, Day, VCU and URI.  We have to pick up wins in at least 2, and more likely 3, of those games. 

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17 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

At the end of the day we need a better resume than Duquesne, Richmond or Rhode Island.  I think that's 13-5 and a win the A10 tournament but if Rhode Island keeps playing at their present level, it will take more than that.

ditto.    without dayton and/or vcu and/or rhodey, we are not a tourney team.   an NET in the 60's wont cut it.  

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9 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Only if we can't win a couple of big games in the A10 down the stretch.  And in that scenario, we won't really be in play as an NCAA tourney team anyway. 

I think we can disregard the Dav. loss.  This is all going to come down to the 4 games against Duq, Day, VCU and URI.  We have to pick up wins in at least 2, and more likely 3, of those games. 

I think it depends on which 2. If Duq and RI, probably not enough. If Dayton and VCU, we're looking at a 10 seed.

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3 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

As much as I love the Billikens I truly think that if the season ended today we would be one of the next 4 out. As long as we win 1 of 3 against VCU, URI, DAY, and don’t lose any others we have a solid chance 

Quite frankly, I'm shocked that some "experts" have us in the tourney as of today. If we go 8-2 the rest of the way we end the regular season with a 24-7 record and 13-5 A10 record. I just don't see how we drop by winning out but for 2 games on the road versus teams with higher NETs. Although VCU is playing some good ball right now. That is going to be a tough home game. 

Nothing is going to come easy obviously. One game at a time. Every game going forward is going to have a "win or you're out" feel to it. I'm rock hard.

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If I had to rank the things necessary for the Bills to get an at-large they'd be as follows:

- Billkens win a lot: 4 losses or fewer in the A-10 and we'll be in. Guaranteed. 13-5  in the A-10 is right on the bubble and would require a couple wins in the tourney.

- Billkens win over big name, Quad 1 teams: Dayton is currently the only opportunity we have for that. VCU at home wouldn't cut it currently but would be a nice win nonetheless. And it'll be on national TV on a Friday night. It's a must win honestly. I'd easily trade a win over Dayton and a loss to St. Joes over a win over St. Joes and a loss to Dayton. Need some resume builders.

- Need some blowouts: The NET is influenced by margin of victory so we need to start getting some big wins. The difference in our NET ranking of 70 and our RPI of 44 is significantly influenced by us barely beating teams like La Salle, UMASS, GW, etc.

- Past opponents need to win: All of our non-con opponents need to do well, but as others have pointed out it would be really nice if the good/decent teams we beat could step it up. K-state isn't far from being a quad 1 victory and BC could move up to quad 2 if they upset a couple teams in the ACC. I don't see any others that have a legit chance of moving up a quad.

- Bubble watch of other teams: It's still too early in my opinion to worry about this much or even to know who is going to really be on the bubble a month from now.

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16 minutes ago, kshoe said:

If I had to rank the things necessary for the Bills to get an at-large they'd be as follows:

- Billkens win a lot: 4 losses or fewer in the A-10 and we'll be in. Guaranteed. 13-5  in the A-10 is right on the bubble and would require a couple wins in the tourney.

- Billkens win over big name, Quad 1 teams: Dayton is currently the only opportunity we have for that. VCU at home wouldn't cut it currently but would be a nice win nonetheless. And it'll be on national TV on a Friday night. It's a must win honestly. I'd easily trade a win over Dayton and a loss to St. Joes over a win over St. Joes and a loss to Dayton. Need some resume builders.

- Need some blowouts: The NET is influenced by margin of victory so we need to start getting some big wins. The difference in our NET ranking of 70 and our RPI of 44 is significantly influenced by us barely beating teams like La Salle, UMASS, GW, etc.

- Past opponents need to win: All of our non-con opponents need to do well, but as others have pointed out it would be really nice if the good/decent teams we beat could step it up. K-state isn't far from being a quad 1 victory and BC could move up to quad 2 if they upset a couple teams in the ACC. I don't see any others that have a legit chance of moving up a quad.

- Bubble watch of other teams: It's still too early in my opinion to worry about this much or even to know who is going to really be on the bubble a month from now.

Good summary. 

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2 hours ago, JettFlight5 said:

Honestly, I think we need 2 of those 3. This team has 1 Q1 win (Richmond) and one bad loss (@Davidson). They need more of the former and no more of the latter (which you said later in the post). Kansas State is close to being another Q1 win, which would help tremendously, as would a revenge win over Duquense. 

My thoughts exactly and no trap game losses. 

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Lunardi's most recent bracket has VCU as "last 4 bye" and URI as "last 4 in." Here's more reliable than Palm. Those two play tonight, and whoever wins will get a nice bump. 10 Conference games left. We can categorize them as follows:

  • Loss Would Be Unmitigated Disaster (4): @ St. Joes, St. Joes, Lasalle, @ George Mason. Have to go 4-0
  • Loss isn't a Disaster, But Pretty Close (3): Duquense, @ U Mass, Bonnies; 2-1 likely, 3-0 would be sweet
  • Hard Games, a split at worst is needed (2) VCU, @URI; 1-1 needed
  • Chalk it a Loss, But a Win Changes the Formula (1) @ Dayton

7-3 in the last ten would probably still leave us outside, but we may be top 4 with 12-6 record. It would get us a chance at a Q2 victory on Friday in Brooklyn against a tired team, and set up a big game Saturday that may put us on right side of bubble. I could see 12-6 + 2-1 in A-10 as a path to dancing. 

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Hey guys, this is a little off topic, but talk of tourney scenarios got me excited, but I didn't want to start a new thread. Does anybody know if/where I can find a full-game video of the A10 championship against the Bonnies last year? I was on vacation, watching the game from Florida last year, so I wasn't able to record it. I looked on youtube and ESPN+, but I'm not exactly tech savvy and really don't know where I would even begin looking beyond that. Thanks in advance.

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12 minutes ago, Reinert310 said:

Hey guys, this is a little off topic, but talk of tourney scenarios got me excited, but I didn't want to start a new thread. Does anybody know if/where I can find a full-game video of the A10 championship against the Bonnies last year? I was on vacation, watching the game from Florida last year, so I wasn't able to record it. I looked on youtube and ESPN+, but I'm not exactly tech savvy and really don't know where I would even begin looking beyond that. Thanks in advance.

It was on YouTube but I posted the link here and it got taken down almost immediately for copyright. It was a CBS broadcast so no ESPN+. I know there’s at least one person on this board that has it but getting it to a digital file is the complication. I have it but my copy has no sound 

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