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Sheltiedave

Five SIU observations from da Natuzzi in SoCo

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1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Roy.   Don't give us garbage stats like that.   You know better.   Percentages are soooooo misleading.    Yuri has attempted only six (6) 3 pointers for the entire year -- not even 1 per game - and I suspect that each one of them (I recall yesterday's) was when Yuri was completely wide open -- against no defense.   Of course a PG should make 50% of them (3 of 6) under this situation.    Let me know when Yuri shoots 3 to 4 per game and when he is being defended --- see Jimerson.

the point was only jimmerson stands out.   and if you only want jimmerson shooting threes and nobody else, particularly the two guards (goodwin and collins) that have the ball in their hands the most and start the offense about 95% of the time, to shoot threes, it will be a pretty stagnant offense in the half court.   until goodwin and collins are shooting under 30% they should not put away the three.  

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Just now, billiken_roy said:

the point was only jimmerson stands out.   and if you only want jimmerson shooting threes and nobody else, particularly the two guards (goodwin and collins) that have the ball in their hands the most and start the offense about 95% of the time, to shoot threes, it will be a pretty stagnant offense in the half court.   until goodwin and collins are shooting under 30% they should not put away the three.  

No.  I want both Goodwin and Yuri to take the wide open looks which both get -- they have to.   If they don't, they should take themselves out of the game.

Instead, I am simply saying that neither of them provide for proper spacing.  Now, if they each come out and make their first 3 or 4 shots from the perimeter, then defenses will change.   Instead, I want our first perimeter shot to be taken by whoever is playing the shooting guard spot -  Thatch (pre-sickness), Jacobs (yesterday) or Perkins/Jimerson (should CF make a change).

Jimerson is best 3 point shooter -- and plays the best defense compared to the other shooters -- Perkins and Weaver.

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14 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

No.  I want both Goodwin and Yuri to take the wide open looks which both get -- they have to.   If they don't, they should take themselves out of the game.

Instead, I am simply saying that neither of them provide for proper spacing.  Now, if they each come out and make their first 3 or 4 shots from the perimeter, then defenses will change.   Instead, I want our first perimeter shot to be taken by whoever is playing the shooting guard spot -  Thatch (pre-sickness), Jacobs (yesterday) or Perkins/Jimerson (should CF make a change).

Jimerson is best 3 point shooter -- and plays the best defense compared to the other shooters -- Perkins and Weaver.

wait a minute are you saying perkins is a better three point shooter than goodwin and/or collins?   because that is flat out wrong.  he is about the worst three point shooter on the team.   oh that's right stats mean nothing.  never mind. 

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5 hours ago, Sheltiedave said:

We don’t necessarily need all the scorers out on the floor to start the game. What we do need is some variety in how we attack, and how we initiate our offense.

Believe your first, and possibly best, point -- see above -- got missed with your use of the term wrinkle.   

I prefer Yuri on the floor with 2 shooters.   Easier to do when he replaces Goodwin.  But when Yuri is in the game with Goodwin and French, then I prefer the next 2 spots include shooters -- Thatch, Jacobs, Weaver, Perkins and/or JImerson.  If Bell is also in the game (as per our starting 5 yesterday), then that 5th player (our only shooter  - Jacobs yesterday) needs to come out firing 3 pointers -- and if not, we will have problems.  Even then, probably too much to ask of any one person -- even our best in Jimerson - in that all are still new and/or newer faces to the team.

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17 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

No.  I want both Goodwin and Yuri to take the wide open looks which both get -- they have to.   If they don't, they should take themselves out of the game.

Instead, I am simply saying that neither of them provide for proper spacing.  Now, if they each come out and make their first 3 or 4 shots from the perimeter, then defenses will change.   Instead, I want our first perimeter shot to be taken by whoever is playing the shooting guard spot -  Thatch (pre-sickness), Jacobs (yesterday) or Perkins/Jimerson (should CF make a change).

Jimerson is best 3 point shooter -- and plays the best defense compared to the other shooters -- Perkins and Weaver.

Jimerson is a worse defensive player than both Perkins and Weaver. Maybe by the time he is an upperclassmen he will be better, but not right now. 

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Just now, billiken_roy said:

wait a minute are you saying perkins is a better three point shooter than goodwin and/or collins?   because that is flat out wrong.  he is about the worst three point shooter on the team.   oh that's right stats mean nothing.  never mind. 

Too early to tell... but no, stats means alot.   Percentages based on very few attempts mean very little.

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you think jacobs is a  better three point shooter than goodwin?   right now?   maybe if they are playing horse.   jacobs might have the slowest release i have ever seen.   yes when he is open he shoots ok.  but right now i would rather have goodwin shoot a three than jacobs.   and i am a huge jacobs fan.   

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3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

wait a minute are you saying perkins is a better three point shooter than goodwin and/or collins?   because that is flat out wrong.  he is about the worst three point shooter on the team.   oh that's right stats mean nothing.  never mind. 

He was a 42% 3pt shooter last year. You have to understand sample size and that shooters very often don't make every shot they take. Players go through cold and hot spells. Just cause he's missing good looks now doesn't make him a bad shooter. He was recruited as a scorer who could stretch Defenses. 7 or 8 games doesn't make someone "the worst shooter on the team".

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Just now, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

He was a 42% 3pt shooter last year. You have to understand sample size and that shooters very often don't make every shot they take. Players go through cold and hot spells. Just cause he's missing good looks now doesn't make him a bad shooter. He was recruited as a scorer who could stretch Defenses. 7 or 8 games doesn't make someone "the worst shooter on the team".

personally i dont know if i trust jay harrington stats.   but if you do, good for you.   i havent seen a 42% three point shooter form this year from perkins. no arch.  very inconsistent rotation and he drifts to his left every time he shoots.  

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Just now, NH said:

Jimerson is a worse defensive player than both Perkins and Weaver. Maybe by the time he is an upperclassmen he will be better, but not right now. 

I started the comparison - but maybe I should have refrained.   To their credit, I have seen each of the 3 play very well at times -- and then I have seen each of the 3 get burned very badly.   Actually, it's probably hard to tell.  Each are so different in size and skills, each defend different types of players.  None would be considered our defensive specialist - but I do think all 3 have come along in only 8 games - and each will only get better as the season goes on.   Maybe we need to revisit this one in the future.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

personally i dont know if i trust jay harrington stats.   but if you do, good for you.   i havent seen a 42% three point shooter form this year from perkins. no arch.  very inconsistent rotation and he drifts to his left every time he shoots.  

Jimerson also shoots a flat shot and has plenty of drift. I think almost every player on our team could use some arch imo. I agree that 42 may be high but he is far from the worst on the team.

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14 minutes ago, Clock_Tower said:

I started the comparison - but maybe I should have refrained.   To their credit, I have seen each of the 3 play very well at times -- and then I have seen each of the 3 get burned very badly.   Actually, it's probably hard to tell.  Each are so different in size and skills, each defend different types of players.  None would be considered our defensive specialist - but I do think all 3 have come along in only 8 games - and each will only get better as the season goes on.   Maybe we need to revisit this one in the future.

 

 

IMO they are all bad defenders but as you accurately pointed out for different reasons and in different ways. Of the 3, I would say Jimerson is the most likely to improve as his problems seems to be technique/confidence related, he doesn't seem to trust that he can stay in front of people so as soon as someone starts to drive on him he immediately reaches out with his hands rather than move his feet, easily correctable.  Weaver is in his 5th year, if he's not a good defender by now that's not likely to change over the next 3 months. Perkins is somewhere in the middle, he should be at least a serviceable defender, I would guess that because of his ability to score no coach has really demanded that he play D, if Ford does I think he can improve a little this year and then make a bigger jump in improvement next off season. 

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how the top 10 players come in on offensive and defensive rating per 100 poss (left to right from best to worst)

OFF: Weaver- Jimerson - Jacobs-  Goodwin-  french-  Perkins-  thatch-  bell - Hankton- Collins

DEF:  Goodwin -french - hankton(!)-thatch- Jacobs - Collins- Perkins - bell - weaver - jimmerson

 

Only Goodwin, french, and Jacobs finish in the top 5 for both. your most balanced starting 5 would be French, Goodwin, Jacobs, Thatch, and Perkins.

Another stat out is WS(win shares) which sounds to be similar to WAR in baseball. It's the contribution by offense, defense or both to get the team a W. Its starting 5 is Goodwin(1.4) french(1.1) jimerson(0.8) jacobs(0.7) perkins(0.5) in that order.  Basically saying going with an offensive lineup even given its defense gives you a better chance of winning than a defensive line up - for what we have. 

 

I think its crazy that Collins is last on the team in offense rating -which takes points scored and points produced for the team.

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22 minutes ago, wgstl said:

how the top 10 players come in on offensive and defensive rating per 100 poss (left to right from best to worst)

OFF: Weaver- Jimerson - Jacobs-  Goodwin-  french-  Perkins-  thatch-  bell - Hankton- Collins

DEF:  Goodwin -french - hankton(!)-thatch- Jacobs - Collins- Perkins - bell - weaver - jimmerson

 

Only Goodwin, french, and Jacobs finish in the top 5 for both. your most balanced starting 5 would be French, Goodwin, Jacobs, Thatch, and Perkins.

Another stat out is WS(win shares) which sounds to be similar to WAR in baseball. It's the contribution by offense, defense or both to get the team a W. Its starting 5 is Goodwin(1.4) french(1.1) jimerson(0.8) jacobs(0.7) perkins(0.5) in that order.  Basically saying going with an offensive lineup even given its defense gives you a better chance of winning than a defensive line up - for what we have. 

 

I think its crazy that Collins is last on the team in offense rating -which takes points scored and points produced for the team.

FWIW if you Net Offensive and defensive ratings, you get. It helps explain how our defense isn't really that much better or worse depending on lineup, but our offense is a whole lot worse when say Bell and Collins are in. 

image.png.13ebeec8945bfd6bd744b873c1413849.png

 

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Stats lie if used improperly. 
Bell is our best offensive rebounder, by far, by usage rate.

Courtney is our best offensive player, by usage rate.

Collins-is our best assist man, with Hargrove and Goodwin tied for second, by usage rate.

Plus minus, when properly weighted, is a good productivity measurement.

 

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The offense will be stagnant because our best players are bully ball players and our best point guard is a nonscorer. We will win games with our defense and just enough offense. Beautiful ball will have to wait until French and Goodwin graduate.

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2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

wait a minute are you saying perkins is a better three point shooter than goodwin and/or collins?   because that is flat out wrong.  he is about the worst three point shooter on the team.   oh that's right stats mean nothing.  never mind. 

Perkins was pretty good at shooting the three at SWIC (36%) and Ford mentioned on the post game show that he was good at shooting them. Hopefully the percentage will be going up.

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49 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

FWIW if you Net Offensive and defensive ratings, you get. It helps explain how our defense isn't really that much better or worse depending on lineup, but our offense is a whole lot worse when say Bell and Collins are in. 

image.png.13ebeec8945bfd6bd744b873c1413849.png

 

More playing time for Weaver!  (semi-blue font knowing these are all small sample sizes and Weaver's is even smaller)

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47 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Stats lie if used improperly. 
Bell is our best offensive rebounder, by far, by usage rate.

Courtney is our best offensive player, by usage rate.

Collins-is our best assist man, with Hargrove and Goodwin tied for second, by usage rate.

Plus minus, when properly weighted, is a good productivity measurement.

 

"Lies, damned lies and statistics." Winston Churchill.

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11 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

The offense will be stagnant because our best players are bully ball players and our best point guard is a nonscorer. We will win games with our defense and just enough offense. Beautiful ball will have to wait until French and Goodwin graduate.

1.) Goodwin is our best Point Guard (by far). He is averaging the highest PPG by a SLU player (don't fact check me but if he's not, he's close)

2.) Our two best offensive players are French and Goodwin. The only other player that has shown he can consistently play that well offensively is Jimerson, but he can't yet be the focal point of an offense. If you removed them from the offense, it would look a whole lot uglier.

 

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49 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Stats lie if used improperly. 
Bell is our best offensive rebounder, by far, by usage rate.

Courtney is our best offensive player, by usage rate.

Collins-is our best assist man, with Hargrove and Goodwin tied for second, by usage rate.

Plus minus, when properly weighted, is a good productivity measurement.

 

No STAT has ever lied. It is a STAT, not a 5'11 shoot first point guard with millions of youtube followers talking to his wife.  People just irresponsibly draw conclusions that they should not be drawing. 

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16 minutes ago, Old guy said:

"Lies, damned lies and statistics." Winston Churchill.

grandpa always said "figures dont lie, but liars do figure". i like to look at all the stats and have fun with them, the  stat i like the most is 7-1. 4 in a row during the tournament is also a very nice one

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33 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

1.) Goodwin is our best Point Guard (by far). He is averaging the highest PPG by a SLU player (don't fact check me but if he's not, he's close)

2.) Our two best offensive players are French and Goodwin. The only other player that has shown he can consistently play that well offensively is Jimerson, but he can't yet be the focal point of an offense. If you removed them from the offense, it would look a whole lot uglier.

 

Collins, even with his recent struggles is averaging 6 apg and has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6. No other player is even close to those numbers.

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31 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

1.) Goodwin is our best Point Guard (by far). He is averaging the highest PPG by a SLU player (don't fact check me but if he's not, he's close)

2.) Our two best offensive players are French and Goodwin. The only other player that has shown he can consistently play that well offensively is Jimerson, but he can't yet be the focal point of an offense. If you removed them from the offense, it would look a whole lot uglier.

 

So if French takes over the scoring lead which will make him "averaging the highest ppg by a SLU player"  will he be our best point guard? 

Goodwin only plays the point for 5-10 min a game, so I'm not sure how you can derive what he does while not playing the point makes him the best pg. 

 

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