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The Bills over St. B by 2


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Third time is a charm...with hopefully a better outcome. 

Let's start this report with some stats....mainly from the 2nd St. B game. Why the 2nd game? ...both games were somewhat similar ..we lost by 7 and 4pts.  And most of the St. B stats were similar ...The difference between the 2 games was that what ever St. B did in the 1st game they did even better in the 2nd game.  The reason we were able to close the gap a little was much better shooting by the Bills in the 2nd game . Here is what stands out to me and  needs to be fixed.... 

TOs...we gave up 18 in the first game and 17 in the 2nd game...way too many and this cost us 2 games. You may say that St. B is a good TO team...they grade out at C on forcing TOs plus we gave up more TOs to them than almost anybody else.  It's not them , its us.  Here are some additional 2nd game results. ...Pts off TOs (SB) 22-1......4 players (Welch, Holmes, Adaway,Osunniyi) score 75pts...90% of the game pts...66% of the pts were from inside the arc...58 pts in the paint...58 is way too many....protect the ball AND the paint.

Now let's look at...

A-10 Tourney Watch and Chance 2 Dance

As forecast  in the LaS spread thread yesterday,  our victory over  LaS erases the small advantage that the  Day & VCU had over us. We  now actually have a slight but not meaningful advantage....i.e.  still a 3 team race  (SLU, VCU & Day) with Dav a length behind.  Beating LaS yesterday sets us up as the favorite in the 3 remaining games.....Now we just have to win...one day at a time.  Most probable outcome in the Final game is SLU vs VCU or Day...slight edge to VCU over Day. There is a hair's width separating the 3 teams...with Dav as a the dark horse.  

The following %s represent the probability of getting a Dance bid...

Chance 2 Dance

The Bills....56%...up 3

VCU...........54%...dn 1

Day............51%....dn 1

Dav............40%....unch

Now , let's get back to the business at hand... beating St. B.  As you can see by the spread , this will not be a cake walk.  We have been the better team twice before. This time we need to prove it. Let's start with the report card.

This report card  review is a little different from others...the UP/Down section at the end is usually just how the Bills did compared to the previous  game...this is how both teams have done since they last played one another.

 
...................SLU.....................St B..........................SLU.........................St B

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A-........................C.............................B-............................B

FG%...............B+......................B.............................B...............................B-

3P%..............A-.......................D..............................B+.............................D+

FT%...............A........................A-...............................................................

Reb...............A.........................D+............................A-.............................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

......................The Bills...................................................................St. B

UP....Off...FG%...3P%....Def.....PPG.........................Off...PPG...FG%....Def...PPG

Down....Off...PPG.........Def........FG%........................Off...3P%...FT%...Reb........Def....none

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st... unch....needs to average 7.6 (currently 7.8) for remaining games to win D1 assist crown

Stls......Collins....32nd....dn

Dou-Dou....Collins...82nd...dn

....................Okoro...82nd....new

FG%....Okoro....41st...up

Off Reb...Okoro...98th...dn

FTA/FGA....Linssen...27th...dn

St B

Blks...Osunniyi...9th...up

Off Rebs.."...........68th...dn

FG%........."...........38th..up

Assts...Lofton.....10th ...up

Stls.........."...........23rd...up

Injury/ Illness

Brown (G)...Out for season...Illness...2/1/22

Mellouk (F)...Out indefinitely...undisclosed injury...1/14/22...No timetable for return.

Keys to the game.....

So what's the deal with St. B ?  They were supposed to be great but they are not.  They have a good starting 5  and therein lies the problem...St. B goes 5 deep...whatever they start with ...that's pretty much it...All the starters  have over 30 min/gm ...most will be in the upper 30s.  Wear them down.  If there are any subs who come in for a few minutes ...these are the places to open up a lead.  Matchups...Osunniyi vs Okoro...this is pretty close...add Linssen, edge to SLU.......Yuri vs Lofton...Lofton is good ...Yuri is the best...advantage SLU.   Remember LaS...St. Bon is the same with  better FT shooting and a  better defense. ....We lost the last 2  games with St. B because of TOs (35) including 18 steals. I suppose you could say the Bonnies had great D...but their normal numbers are... opponent TOs 12 /gm and normal steals is 5 /gm.  In the last SB game we gave up a crushing 12 TOs in the 1st half...score was 48-32  in favor of Bonnies...in the 2nd half, 5 TOs..  score 47-35 Bills favor . TOs make a difference.

WWN2D2W....Hold the Bonnies to 70 pts or less ....  Adaway is their 3P guy ...hold him to two  3PA ....St. B slash target... 40% /  30%/ less than 15 FTA......Rebs  6+ extra rebs.... ..TOs 11........Osunniyi 2 blks...Hold their top 4 scorers to 50 pts.   Bills slash 48/38/77....Win the matchups (see Keys to the game)

Bottom line...Protect the ball AND the paint.  If we play the same game we did yesterday  against LaS ,  we beat St. B.   Let's beat St.B and have a game 3.

 
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SLU must do a better job on Offense of beating the Bona zone. We had a collective 40 years of SLU education yesterday at Clyde’s in D.C. diagnosing and finding the solution to that Bona zone that we all know is coming at some point. It can be done!

Let’s Go Bills!  Beat the Bonnies! 

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31 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU must do a better job on Offense of beating the Bona zone. We had a collective 40 years of SLU education yesterday at Clyde’s in D.C. diagnosing and finding the solution to that Bona zone that we all know is coming at some point. It can be done!

Let’s Go Bills!  Beat the Bonnies! 

Those is where Perkins would shine - have him roam around the free throw line and just kill em with the mid range jumper.

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14 minutes ago, ACE said:

Those is where Perkins would shine - have him roam around the free throw line and just kill em with the mid range jumper.

If Travis were to use Gibby that way against the zone instead of his usual spot in the corners and running the baseline and around the 3-point line that would throw off the scouting report, but would it help?

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9 minutes ago, ACE said:

Those is where Perkins would shine - have him roam around the free throw line and just kill em with the mid range jumper.

Yes, that is the solution. The issue is who can do that on our current team. We know that shot we be there as long as Bona is in that zone.

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Let's stop thinking about what it would have been like with Perkins playing or who can play like Perkins, the answer to that question is no one I am aware of.

Now that the wishful thinking is done with, Team Rankings has SLU as winning against St. Bona, with one star of confidence and a 1 pt. advantage. SLU has better pregame stats in 7 out of 8 offensive categories and 4 out of 7 defensive categories. What the Vegas line and the single star of confidence means is that this is a game either team is likely to win. At this time I think the best way to prepare for this game is by either praying or bringing out the bourbon.

Personally, I think we can and possibly will win if the refs do not go all out against us. Go Bills!

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-take care of the ball and don't bring the offense to OO and let him have block party, our bigs need to play smart and take shots when they can or make a pass

-I heard some bar talk that I thought was an interesting way to play StB, early in the game play Markhi, Andre or Brandon and have them foul to get the refs in the mode of calling fouls which will eventually get even causing Schmidt to lose his mind when his guys get called - of course that is counting on refs which we know is not a smart play

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18 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-take care of the ball and don't bring the offense to OO and let him have block party, our bigs need to play smart and take shots when they can or make a pass

-I heard some bar talk that I thought was an interesting way to play StB, early in the game play Markhi, Andre or Brandon and have them foul to get the refs in the mode of calling fouls which will eventually get even causing Schmidt to lose his mind when his guys get called - of course that is counting on refs which we know is not a smart play

A long, long, long time ago, I remember Rick Majerus saying as a TV studio analyst, long before he came to SLU, that a strategy is to have everyone crash the boards hard the first couple of times down.  The refs can only call one foul per play and it sets the tone of a physical game.  Two sides of the same coin, I suppose.  

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34 minutes ago, Cowboy II said:

-take care of the ball and don't bring the offense to OO and let him have block party, our bigs need to play smart and take shots when they can or make a pass

-I heard some bar talk that I thought was an interesting way to play StB, early in the game play Markhi, Andre or Brandon and have them foul to get the refs in the mode of calling fouls which will eventually get even causing Schmidt to lose his mind when his guys get called - of course that is counting on refs which we know is not a smart play

Seems crazy. But that's what they said about Son of Sam.

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3 hours ago, juniorbill76 said:

If Travis were to use Gibby that way against the zone instead of his usual spot in the corners and running the baseline and around the 3-point line that would throw off the scouting report, but would it help?

Gibby has a disturbing habit of short-arming the ball when he gets in the lane for jumpers- lots of front rim or air balls.

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Wow...what a game...As Rammer said...we have done the impossible. He of course was referring to the finally 1.8 seconds of the game.  What does that mean? It means that Lofton had an 82.61% chance of making the first shot...and St. B had the same chance of tying it. He had a 68.24% chance of making 2 shots...and St. B had the same chance to win the game. Some say we were lucky to win. I say you need to be in a position to win so you can have some luck.  How about those 17 TOs ...an almost guaranteed loss...but yet we won.  Well, no surprise to me ... we were supposed to win by 2...Something must have gone right ...Let's see what it was....

Bolded statements are from the original post.

St. B slash target... 40% /  30%/ less than 15 FTA... And this is why we won...actual slash... 38/25/ 8 FTA (38%) ...triple bingo...but wait ...there's more...

Bills slash 48/38/77...This ties into the above slash............................................actual slash....39 /43 /8 FTA (88%)...Our great defense not only held their slash down but we exceeded St. B in all 3 categories. 2 pt shooting was down a bit but it didn't matter because of our defense.

 Rebs  6+ extra rebs...9 extra.....Another important factor in the win...excellent

Hold their top 4 scorers to 50 pts...48pts...and yet another bingo and a far cry from the 75 pts they scored against us last time.

Protect  the paint...last time ...58 pts in the paint for St. B......this time 30 pts almost cut in half...are you having fun yet?

Osunniyi 2 blks...3...close enough.

Win the matchups...Osunniyi vs Okoro...Okoro...14 pts ...12 rebs  &  2stls..........Osunniyi...6pts...9reb...4 asst...the clear winner Okoro

....................................Yuri vs Lofton...Lofton is good ...Yuri is the best....Yuri...11pts (3-4 FTs)...7 rebs...9 asst...1 blk......Lofton...10 pts (FTs 0-2)...3 rebs..4 asst..1 blk..2 stls...again the clear winner Yuri...SLU wins both matchups

TOs 11...we had 17...This was a miss but even here there was a bit of sunshine...last time when we gave up 17 TOs,   we were outscored 22-1  on pts off TOs...this time it was only 14-6...so a pickup of 13 pts. Note to 22-23 Bills...cut the TO rate down against St. B for next year...That sounds good too ..we won't see them again till next year.

Adaway is their 3P guy ...hold him to two  3PA...this was a miss ...but because of all the good stuff above ...it didn't matter

And finally, Hold the Bonnies to 70 pts or less ...and did we ever... a drop of 27 pts  (33% less)

Bottom line... We won because we played a good game especially on defense...for those who want to say we were lucky, I say 

LUCK=preparation meeting opportunity...

2 down ...2 to go

Go Bills

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Lofton going to the line reminds me when Goodwin did the same - can’t remember the team- and he missed both FTs with no time on the clock. Lots of pressure there. 

Miss the first one and the pressure doubles.

Is it possible to find stats in that situation?

I bet if people make the first one the make the second at a pretty high clip. You make the first the game is tied and the pressure eases.

I would also bet if they miss the first the second is a miss more than normal because the pressure increases.

 

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38 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Lofton going to the line reminds me when Goodwin did the same - can’t remember the team- and he missed both FTs with no time on the clock. Lots of pressure there. 

Davidson. We got our revenge against them in the conference tourney that year though.

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

 

Wow...what a game...As Rammer said...we have done the impossible. He of course was referring to the finally 1.8 seconds of the game.  What does that mean? It means that Lofton had an 82.61% chance of making the first shot...and St. B had the same chance of tying it. He had a 68.24% chance of making 2 shots...and St. B had the same chance to win the game. Some say we were lucky to win. I say you need to be in a position to win so you can have some luck.  How about those 17 TOs ...an almost guaranteed loss...but yet we won.  Well, no surprise to me ... we were supposed to win by 2...Something must have gone right ...Let's see what it was....

Bolded statements are from the original post.

St. B slash target... 40% /  30%/ less than 15 FTA... And this is why we won...actual slash... 38/25/ 8 FTA (38%) ...triple bingo...but wait ...there's more...

Bills slash 48/38/77...This ties into the above slash............................................actual slash....39 /43 /8 FTA (88%)...Our great defense not only held their slash down but we exceeded St. B in all 3 categories. 2 pt shooting was down a bit but it didn't matter because of our defense.

 Rebs  6+ extra rebs...9 extra.....Another important factor in the win...excellent

Hold their top 4 scorers to 50 pts...48pts...and yet another bingo and a far cry from the 75 pts they scored against us last time.

Protect  the paint...last time ...58 pts in the paint for St. B......this time 30 pts almost cut in half...are you having fun yet?

Osunniyi 2 blks...3...close enough.

Win the matchups...Osunniyi vs Okoro...Okoro...14 pts ...12 rebs  &  2stls..........Osunniyi...6pts...9reb...4 asst...the clear winner Okoro

....................................Yuri vs Lofton...Lofton is good ...Yuri is the best....Yuri...11pts (3-4 FTs)...7 rebs...9 asst...1 blk......Lofton...10 pts (FTs 0-2)...3 rebs..4 asst..1 blk..2 stls...again the clear winner Yuri...SLU wins both matchups

TOs 11...we had 17...This was a miss but even here there was a bit of sunshine...last time when we gave up 17 TOs,   we were outscored 22-1  on pts off TOs...this time it was only 14-6...so a pickup of 13 pts. Note to 22-23 Bills...cut the TO rate down against St. B for next year...That sounds good too ..we won't see them again till next year.

Adaway is their 3P guy ...hold him to two  3PA...this was a miss ...but because of all the good stuff above ...it didn't matter

And finally, Hold the Bonnies to 70 pts or less ...and did we ever... a drop of 27 pts  (33% less)

Bottom line... We won because we played a good game especially on defense...for those who want to say we were lucky, I say 

LUCK=preparation meeting opportunity...

2 down ...2 to go

Go Bills

 

 

 

Wiz, are you here in DC? There were reports you are among us!

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33 minutes ago, Adman said:

Wiz, are you here in DC? There were reports you are among us!

To paraphrase Mark Twain...Reports of my presence in DC are greatly exaggerated.

Though I am there with you in spirit...I am with the computer cranking out numbers  for the Davidson game...

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5 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Yes, they describe a somewhat similar, but team wide, situation like we had in prior years with French. Too bad for them.

By the way I was checking Team Rankings this morning. These their final rankings for their top 6 A10 teams: SLU 57, Davidson 64, Dayton 65, VCU 66, St. Bona 77, Rich 81. This shows them in the same page with you (with the exception of Davidson which they rank higher).

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5 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Yes, they describe a somewhat similar, but team wide, situation like we had in prior years with French. Too bad for them.

By the way I was checking Team Rankings this morning. These their final rankings for their top 6 A10 teams: SLU 57, Davidson 64, Dayton 65, VCU 66, St. Bona 77, Rich 81. This shows them in the same page with you (with the exception of Davidson which they rank higher).

In the NET, quite a bit different:

Davidson - 43, Dayton - 54, VCU - 56, SLU - 60, St. Bona - 84, Richmond - 85.

Despite wins yesterday by SLU, Dayton and Davidson, NET went down for all three. 

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4 minutes ago, Adman said:

In the NET, quite a bit different:

Davidson - 43, Dayton - 54, VCU - 56, SLU - 60, St. Bona - 84, Richmond - 85.

Despite wins yesterday by SLU, Dayton and Davidson, NET went down for all three. 

That is true but what I wrote is roughly in line with the Wiz's thinking. There is additional strength/support derived from finding different methodologies reaching similar conclusions. The NET is a different methodology that does not confirm or deny the Wiz's methods. Team Ranking's does support the Wiz's methodology even though it is different.

I assume the NET is doing what it is doing because we won against St. Bona by a single point. However, we all know that a win is a win, and that our main (and most likely chance) to go to the Dance is to win the A10 tournament. Going up or down in the NET is meaningless at this time, what really matters is that we bumped St. Bona out of the race. Now we need to repeat the process and bump Davidson off.

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