Our A-10 Schedule

[ACE]

Looking at the conference schedule, it potentially shapes up well for to get off to a strong start. Only three road games in January

- The first two games are home games (URI & UMass).

- Our first two road games are LaSalle and Fordham... enough said.

- Then a home game against St. Joe's - good opportunity to get a big conference win.

- At Duquesne

- Closing out the month with two home games, Davidson & Richmond

Going undefeated in January would not seem to be out of the question. Our two toughest games are both at home. We'll need to start developing some consistency in order for it to happen - more efforts like yesterday and the Houston game.

February will be a bigger challenge with some tougher road games, but we'll have an opportunity to rack up some wins and begin to jell throughout the month of January.

How many more losses can we afford to still have a shot at an at-large bid? 

 

[Cowboy]

3 minutes ago, ACE said:

Looking at the conference schedule, it potentially shapes up well for to get off to a strong start. Only three road games in January

- The first two games are home games (URI & UMass).

- Our first two road games are LaSalle and Fordham... enough said.

- Then a home game against St. Joe's - good opportunity to get a big conference win.

- At Duquesne

- Closing out the month with two home games, Davidson & Richmond

Going undefeated in January would not seem to be out of the question. Our two toughest games are both at home. We'll need to start developing some consistency in order for it to happen - more efforts like yesterday and the Houston game.

February will be a bigger challenge with some tougher road games, but we'll have an opportunity to rack up some wins and begin to jell throughout the month of January.

How many more losses can we afford to still have a shot at an at-large bid? 

 

-I will guess very few but it may have as much to do with to whom any losses would be as the number of losses, THicks feel free to correct the grammar

 

[3star_recruit]

Don't forget that a run to the A-10 finals would give us one more quality win.  And if a comparably ranked P5 team loses early in their tournament, we would leapfrog that team. 

[SShoe]

26 minutes ago, ACE said:

Looking at the conference schedule, it potentially shapes up well for to get off to a strong start. Only three road games in January

- The first two games are home games (URI & UMass).

- Our first two road games are LaSalle and Fordham... enough said.

- Then a home game against St. Joe's - good opportunity to get a big conference win.

- At Duquesne

- Closing out the month with two home games, Davidson & Richmond

Going undefeated in January would not seem to be out of the question. Our two toughest games are both at home. We'll need to start developing some consistency in order for it to happen - more efforts like yesterday and the Houston game.

February will be a bigger challenge with some tougher road games, but we'll have an opportunity to rack up some wins and begin to jell throughout the month of January.

How many more losses can we afford to still have a shot at an at-large bid? 

 

3 more at maximum. 

[kshoe]

16 minutes ago, SShoe said:

3 more at maximum. 

Agree. 3 is the max.

Looking at Ace's post, we really need to sweep January. According to Pomeroy, every game has a win probability between 58% (@ Duquesne) and 83% (Richmond at home). The combined probability of winning all the January games is a measly 6%, but it feels like it should be higher just looking at those teams.

[Littlebill]

27 minutes ago, SShoe said:

3 more at maximum. 

We're up to top 60 again in NET. Seems like as long as we only lose games to decent teams, we could afford a 3, and wouldn't have to do much in the tournament. IF we lose more than that, or those losses are to the Shtshow majority of this conference, it may need to be less.

[billiken_roy]

14 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

We're up to top 60 again in NET. Seems like as long as we only lose games to decent teams, we could afford a 3, and wouldn't have to do much in the tournament. IF we lose more than that, or those losses are to the Shtshow majority of this conference, it may need to be less.

we need to climb more.   i contend 40 is the almost guarantee mark and 50 is the maybe an at large mark.   over 50 is reserved for the power conferences graft and corruption deals.  

[SouthSide_Billiken]

17 minutes ago, Littlebill said:

We're up to top 60 again in NET. Seems like as long as we only lose games to decent teams, we could afford a 3, and wouldn't have to do much in the tournament. IF we lose more than that, or those losses are to the Shtshow majority of this conference, it may need to be less.

I think a 14-4 record would win the regular season conference title. I find it hard to believe that the A10 regular season champ would not get an at large bid. And if by some chance 14-4 didn't win the conference, then I believe an at large is still in play with a run to the conference finals. My only fear is that those 2 games against La Salle will greatly damage our NET.

[ACE]

1 hour ago, SShoe said:

3 more at maximum. 

So you mean two losses in regular season plus one in conference tourney OR three in regular season plus one conference tourney?

 

[billiken_roy]

12 minutes ago, SouthSide_Billiken said:

I think a 14-4 record would win the regular season conference title. I find it hard to believe that the A10 regular season champ would not get an at large bid. And if by some chance 14-4 didn't win the conference, then I believe an at large is still in play with a run to the conference finals. My only fear is that those 2 games against La Salle will greatly damage our NET.

i contend all the triple digit NET opponents will greatly damage our NET.  the A10 has a lot of triple digit NET's this year. 

[CBFan]

I will be comfortable with no more than 3 loses in the A10 could still get us an at large if and only if we play in the tounanent finals that would have us at 26-8.

Our team will have to play better and stay healthy to accomplish that kind of run.

Wiley was walking without a limp Sunday hoping to see him play next Sunday.

[Littlebill]

19 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i contend all the triple digit NET opponents will greatly damage our NET.  the A10 has a lot of triple digit NET's this year. 

I think it is different than RPI in that sense. As long as we beat those teams by a good margin, we will move up - similar to how it happened after App State

[slu72]

Reading the Alford stories I didn't realize the PAC 12 was playing so poorly. One guy went so far as to predict they'd be a one bid conference. I don't buy that at all but if they only get 3 that would surely help us. No more than 4 losses might do it. But I'd go w/3 and a run to the final tourney game. 

[SouthSide_Billiken]

Here are the current NET rankings for the entire conference: VCU - 57; Billikens - 58; Dayton - 72; Rhode Island - 102; Davidson - 106; St. Joe's - 118; Duquesne - 140; UMass - 163; George Mason - 182; Fordham - 199; Richmond - 209; St. Bonaventure - 211; GW - 290; La Salle - 311.

Here are the NET rankings for our opponents to date: SEMO - 283; Troy - 158; N. Alabama - 341; Seton Hall - 52; Pitt. - 68; Central Ark. - 247; Butler - 50; SIU - 124; Oregon St. - 93; Houston - 4; N. Carolina Central - 335; Florida St - 23; App. St. - 232.

Our Average Non Conference Opponent NET Ranking is 154. 6 Teams in the Top 100 (with only 3 in the top 50). 5 Teams above 200.

Our Average Conference Opponent NET Ranking is 161. 3 games in the Top 100. 5 games above 200.

Looking at it that way, the big difference between our OOC and Conference schedule is the fact that OOC had a few more chances for good wins. Moving forward, I think it benefits us that the NET Rankings value road wins more than home wins. We have some chances to pick up decent road wins at Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Joe's, Dayton, and VCU. It also doesn't hurt that some of our worst opponents are played on the road. Perhaps that will at least minimize the negative impact on those games for NET ranking purposes.

We have to win all the games we are supposed to and then win a couple of the road games listed above. Hopefully yesterday was the start of a positive trend. Go Bills!

 

[ACE]

1 hour ago, kshoe said:

Agree. 3 is the max.

Looking at Ace's post, we really need to sweep January. According to Pomeroy, every game has a win probability between 58% (@ Duquesne) and 83% (Richmond at home). The combined probability of winning all the January games is a measly 6%, but it feels like it should be higher just looking at those teams.

The four toughest conference games I see are these four road games (URI, SJU, Dayton and VCU). They all take place in February. Find a way to split those and avoid other stumbles along the way - no easy task, but not impossible.

[TheChosenOne]

2 hours ago, kshoe said:

Agree. 3 is the max.

Looking at Ace's post, we really need to sweep January. According to Pomeroy, every game has a win probability between 58% (@ Duquesne) and 83% (Richmond at home). The combined probability of winning all the January games is a measly 6%, but it feels like it should be higher just looking at those teams.

Good stuff, do you mind pointing me to where you found that?

[kshoe]

1 hour ago, ACE said:

So you mean two losses in regular season plus one in conference tourney OR three in regular season plus one conference tourney?

 

3 in the regular season is the max. If we only lose 2 more that means we are 25-6, including a decisive A-10 regular season championship, wins over Butler and Seton Hall and a NET that certainly has to be 45 or better. We'd be in.

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, Littlebill said:

I think it is different than RPI in that sense. As long as we beat those teams by a good margin, we will move up - similar to how it happened after App State

hope you are right.   after yesterday and seeing how the NET reacted might be.  

[kshoe]

Just now, TheChosenOne said:

Good stuff, do you mind pointing me to where you found that?

https://kenpom.com/

I pay for his subscription ($20 a year) so I don't like just copying stuff on here but I'll share this screenshot.

[Cowboy]

19 minutes ago, kshoe said:

https://kenpom.com/

I pay for his subscription ($20 a year) so I don't like just copying stuff on here but I'll share this screenshot.

-KenPom is great stuff

 

[SShoe]

2 hours ago, ACE said:

So you mean two losses in regular season plus one in conference tourney OR three in regular season plus one conference tourney?

 

Yeah, 3 in the regular season. That said, if we were to lose 3 and then lose in the first round of the a-10 tourney, we’d be sweating bullets during the bracket show.

hopefully yesterday is a sign of good things to come.  

[billikenbill]

4 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-I will guess very few but it may have as much to do with to whom any losses would be as the number of losses, THicks feel free to correct the grammar

 

2 in the regular season and they need to be against the upper half of the league. Slip up against LaSalle, St. Bonnie, or another bottom feeder and it’s over for an at-large when you throw in the SIU debacle. Weakest A-10 in the past 20 years.

[almaman]

if we have same team come league championship I feel winning it is as easy as I remember it ever being even if we somehow go 4-14 in conference.

[TheChosenOne]

19 hours ago, kshoe said:

https://kenpom.com/

I pay for his subscription ($20 a year) so I don't like just copying stuff on here but I'll share this screenshot.

Thanks for posting. I honestly did not realize kenpom had a subscription service (I have only looked at the high level rankings), so that is good to know. I didn't intend to put you in a weird spot with regards to posting something that is part of a subscription service.

[Franchise_08]

20 hours ago, kshoe said:

https://kenpom.com/

I pay for his subscription ($20 a year) so I don't like just copying stuff on here but I'll share this screenshot.

We should have Mike Lewis by the Duquesne game since they will “do the right thing” and release him immediately. The win probability should increase then.