SIU-C over the Bills by 12

[Old guy]

If you read the PD article talking about "banged up Bills" it appears that our chances of holding our own against SIUC have been limited by injury during the last game to Crawford and issues with Bishop's ankle and Roby's hand. Moore and Johnson will be playing more minutes, probably a lot more.

[CBFan]

Nothing to lose seeing more playing time for the freshman.  The freshman need experience our guys are injured and it is another lost season.

[HoosierPal]

6 minutes ago, Old guy said:

If you read the PD article talking about "banged up Bills" it appears that our chances of holding our own against SIUC have been limited by injury during the last game to Crawford and issues with Bishop's ankle and Roby's hand. Moore and Johnson will be playing more minutes, probably a lot more.

Bishop, Crawford and Roby are playing around a combined 90 minutes per game out of a possible 120.  Moore and Johnson are already at a combined 30, with Hines another 10.  So there are not enough available minutes between those three to take up the slack.  And then assume Reggie gets into foul trouble early in the first half. Gillmann and Neufeld will have to pick up some serious minutes, if all three guards are sidelined and Reggie is Reggie.  Welmer is already averaging 26 minutes, so he likely needs to top 30.

[majerus mojo]

Current Vegas line is SIUC -9.5

[slufan13]

1 minute ago, majerus mojo said:

Current Vegas line is SIUC -9.5

Seems like a pretty good betting opportunity. 

[majerus mojo]

1 hour ago, slufan13 said:

Seems like a pretty good betting opportunity. 

Has shifted to SIUC -11 since I made the previous post ha. Must've been all that money I dumped in 

[HoosierPal]

Local SIUC connenctions:  Soph Armin Fletcher from Edwardsville is their second leading scorer at 13.0 ppg.  Freshman Aaron Cook, from Westminster, is averaging 2.8.  And it looks like freshman Brendon Gooch, Goodwin's teammate at Althoff, is redshirting.

[freewillie33]

Any leads on how to watch tonight?

[Cowboy]

23 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Per Stu:  Travis Ford says Jermaine Bishop (ankle) and Mike Crawford (head) are questionable for Wednesday game at S. Illinois.  Roby missed practice too but hopes to play.

YIKES!

-all 3 in the video for the shoot around, does not mean they will play, just that they are there

[wgstl]

20 minutes ago, freewillie33 said:

Any leads on how to watch tonight?

ESPN3

[wgstl]

10 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-all 3 in the video for the shoot around, does not mean they will play, just that they are there

Correct, but Id say its leaning more towards playing

[Box and Won]

31 minutes ago, freewillie33 said:

Any leads on how to watch tonight?

I recommend spending time with loved ones, curling up with a good book, or dropping heavy objects on your gonads instead.  Any of these activities will prove to be much more enjoyable.

[slufan13]

Per Durando. Looks like Bishop is out tonight while Crawford and Roby will play.

[billikenfan05]

2 hours ago, freewillie33 said:

Any leads on how to watch tonight?

I truly mean to sound like a dick when I say you post on a Billikens message board but don't follow the men's basketball team on twitter? 

[Billiken Rich]

40 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

I truly mean to sound like a dick when I say you post on a Billikens message board but don't follow the men's basketball team on twitter? 

I don't do twitter at all but do do Billikens.com......you are a dick......still love you though

[HoosierPal]

49 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

I truly mean to sound like a dick when I say you post on a Billikens message board but don't follow the men's basketball team on twitter? 

Really?? I have no need for a twitter account, but I know that the game is on ESPN3.  I guess I'm a dick too.

[The Wiz]

The Salukis didn't win this game....The Bills lost it.

We wasted one of our best offensive performances of the year (excluding FTs)

Here is what the slash line looked like.....48/43/ 43 vs SIU  51/ 35 / 63

A very winnable game....Yes the FT shooting was bad but I don't think that was the difference.  If we shoot at their level  (which is also our FT ave) we get another 3 pts... if they shoot at our level (highly unlikely) subtract 5.   FT shooting was worth about 3-5 pts in the game...not enough for a win.  Some may argue "but what if earlier on....."   No , the elephant in the room is TOs (btw this elephant has been in the room for the last 2 seasons) 

I think I have said this before but it is worth writing down....20 TOs = loss... pretty simple formula ..almost always true. SLU 21 TOs vs SIU 8. The reason the formula always works is because the extra TOs are just too much to overcome no matter how well you play.  It is like in baseball when you allow 10 extra runners (walks + errors).. the mistakes are just too much to overcome.  I like a target of 12 TOs ....that usually puts you in the top quarter of all teams.

So looking at tonight's game, . 9 extra TOs cost us 18pts plus 4 extra FT misses = 22 pts = 7pt win for the Bills.....Even if you use our crappy averages...15 TOs and 63 FT%...That equals 15 pts more ..good for OT (and of course we all know we would have pulled it out in OT) The point is even playing our normal bad FT  and TO game we would have been at least 12 pts better which is huge.

Bottomline....Here is our average  slash line this season   ....39/30/63... if we can hold to 12 TOs  a game and make our weak slash line  we will an extra few games over our projected 2 wins.  A slash like tonight with 12 TOs  and we would reach double figures in wins.

Protect the ball ...I don't care whether you throw it into the stands or travel ...it is still a TO,,,results are the same...missed opportunity for us ...extra opportunity for them......Protect the ball

[SluSignGuy]

6 hours ago, billikenfan05 said:

I truly mean to sound like a dick when I say you post on a Billikens message board but don't follow the men's basketball team on twitter? 

Gotta remember...some on here have been posting since the 1990s... Tweets are to you what stone tablets are to @Taj79

6 hours ago, Billiken Rich said:

I don't do twitter at all but do do Billikens.com......you are a dick......still love you though

[Soderball]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

The Salukis didn't win this game....The Bills lost it.

We wasted one of our best offensive performances of the year (excluding FTs)

Here is what the slash line looked like.....48/43/ 43 vs SIU  51/ 35 / 63

A very winnable game....Yes the FT shooting was bad but I don't think that was the difference.  If we shoot at their level  (which is also our FT ave) we get another 3 pts... if they shoot at our level (highly unlikely) subtract 5.   FT shooting was worth about 3-5 pts in the game...not enough for a win.  Some may argue "but what if earlier on....."   No , the elephant in the room is TOs (btw this elephant has been in the room for the last 2 seasons) 

I think I have said this before but it is worth writing down....20 TOs = loss... pretty simple formula ..almost always true. SLU 21 TOs vs SIU 8. The reason the formula always works is because the extra TOs are just too much to overcome no matter how well you play.  It is like in baseball when you allow 10 extra runners (walks + errors).. the mistakes are just too much to overcome.  I like a target of 12 TOs ....that usually puts you in the top quarter of all teams.

So looking at tonight's game, . 9 extra TOs cost us 18pts plus 4 extra FT misses = 22 pts = 7pt win for the Bills.....Even if you use our crappy averages...15 TOs and 63 FT%...That equals 15 pts more ..good for OT (and of course we all know we would have pulled it out in OT) The point is even playing our normal bad FT  and TO game we would have been at least 12 pts better which is huge.

Bottomline....Here is our average  slash line this season   ....39/30/63... if we can hold to 12 TOs  a game and make our weak slash line  we will an extra few games over our projected 2 wins.  A slash like tonight with 12 TOs  and we would reach double figures in wins.

Protect the ball ...I don't care whether you throw it into the stands or travel ...it is still a TO,,,results are the same...missed opportunity for us ...extra opportunity for them......Protect the ball

wiz, you are forgetting that the bills f*%#ing suck. the turnovers are part of the deal. thw bills lost this game because the billikens f!@$ing suck.

i was there, i saw it. siu-c is not a good team. last years club with yacoubou beats them. NO inside threat at all. siuc was playing 4 men on the perimeter on defense, slu could not take advantage due to LOFT, turned it over in the process. the team both has no talent and has not been taught how to play. coaching has been poor, poor, poor. Crews was terrible at coaching.

[Old guy]

Wiz, After the first half I thought the game was winnable, to bad the second half was what it was. Going back to the argument that the numbers indicated this game was not winnable because SIUC was a C team and we were an F+ team, as it turns out we could very well have won this game had we played the second half as we did the first half. To quote you "the Saluki's did not win this game, we lost it." I know that if pigs had wings they would fly (or not like ostriches) but even when the numbers indicate a 95% chance of losing, there is a 5% chance of winning. The tails acting against the bulk of the distribution curve. We will not blow every single opportunity like this one when they present themselves, a few will turn out as wins. Too bad this was not one of them.

[Soderball]

4 hours ago, Old guy said:

Wiz, After the first half I thought the game was winnable, to bad the second half was what it was. Going back to the argument that the numbers indicated this game was not winnable because SIUC was a C team and we were an F+ team, as it turns out we could very well have won this game had we played the second half as we did the first half. To quote you "the Saluki's did not win this game, we lost it." I know that if pigs had wings they would fly (or not like ostriches) but even when the numbers indicate a 95% chance of losing, there is a 5% chance of winning. The tails acting against the bulk of the distribution curve. We will not blow every single opportunity like this one when they present themselves, a few will turn out as wins. Too bad this was not one of them.

bills were 7-12 from three in the first. it was a statistical anomaly.

second half had par billikens shooting.. siuc was playing 4 men on the perimeter due to our interior nonpresence.. ford started playing neufeld and jalen had 4 fouls.. that was it for us.

[Old guy]

Soderball, ask yourself what is a statistical anomaly? The answer is: anything that does not fit within the predicted values. Since the power of statistical prediction lies in answers that are supposed to happen in 95% of all cases (that is within the area limited by 2 standard deviations from the median of the distribution curve), the statistical anomalies must fall out of this area, that is in the tails of the distribution curve. We managed to play in the tails of the distribution curve for the first half of this game creating a "statistical anomaly."  In the second half some of the players did not do well, the refs called a number of questionable items, and we came right back within the statistically predicted area (within the 2 standard deviations from the mean) and lost the game. In order to do reasonably well, our team has to push to create statistical anomalies, which means to play in the tails of the distribution curve, not as we are expected to play. It is good to see that we are capable of doing this, at least for periods of time, even if we cannot do this for a whole game.    

[kwyjibo]

14 hours ago, Old guy said:

Soderball, ask yourself what is a statistical anomaly? The answer is: anything that does not fit within the predicted values. Since the power of statistical prediction lies in answers that are supposed to happen in 95% of all cases (that is within the area limited by 2 standard deviations from the median of the distribution curve), the statistical anomalies must fall out of this area, that is in the tails of the distribution curve. We managed to play in the tails of the distribution curve for the first half of this game creating a "statistical anomaly."  In the second half some of the players did not do well, the refs called a number of questionable items, and we came right back within the statistically predicted area (within the 2 standard deviations from the mean) and lost the game. In order to do reasonably well, our team has to push to create statistical anomalies, which means to play in the tails of the distribution curve, not as we are expected to play. It is good to see that we are capable of doing this, at least for periods of time, even if we cannot do this for a whole game.    

We were probably in the tails but in general I think people understand the average predicted result (the spread) better than the variance.   There is on average a 9 point average absolute error this time a year (later in the year the absolute average error is around 7 as Vegas and computer models get better and/or teams get more predictable).  The 9 point average error means that any model is far less accurate for an average game than understood.  You can see how various systems predict at Prediction Tracker (NCAA basketball) .  ESPN's BPI has become the best predictor early in the year as it best models recruiting, coaching, and returning player factors (most do not do anything so it is not totally surprising).  Sagarin seems to be doing the best at that site after the Vegas spreads overall although the "Predictor" model is the worst.   I find the fact that in college basketball the opening line is always slightly better than the final line  very interesting whereas in other sports (like college football) the later factors generally make the lines better predictors (it might simply be a result of the longer time from opening line to game).

[jimbofive]

17 minutes ago, kwyjibo said:

We were probably in the tails but in general I think people understand the average predicted result (the spread) better than the variance.   There is on average a 9 point average absolute error this time a year (later in the year the absolute average error is around 7 as Vegas and computer models get better and/or teams get more predictable).  The 9 point average error means that any model is far less accurate for an average game than understood.  You can see how various systems predict at Prediction Tracker (NCAA basketball) .  ESPN's BPI has become the best predictor early in the year as it best models recruiting, coaching, and returning player factors (most do not do anything so it is not totally surprising).  Sagarin seems to be doing the best at that site after the Vegas spreads overall although the "Predictor" model is the worst.   I find the fact that in college basketball the opening line is always slightly better than the final line  very interesting whereas in other sports (like college football) the later factors generally make the lines better predictors (it might simply be a result of the longer time from opening line to game).

On average, I read this with below average interest.  What's the average age of a meth user in Carbondale?  That's the only average I care about.

[Old guy]

Thank you Kwjibo, very informative.