Player Production - Ash Yacoubou

[Tonka]

As we look towards next season we have to speculate on how good of a team we will have. I was thinking about Ash and how much he will contribute next year. I like to look at player production based on the actual production from when that player played. Here are Ash's stats from last year at Villanova based on 40 minutes of play versus some of the Billikens this year and their stats based on 40 minutes of play.

2012 - 2013 (40 minutes)

Ash – 9.8 points, 2.9 Turnovers, 0.1 Block, 1.1 Steals, 1.8 Assists, 8.7 Rebounds, 3P% .396, 2P% .462, FT .500

2013 - 2014 (40 minutes)

Crawford – 10.7 points, TO 2.4, Block 0.0, Steals .9, Assists 2.2, RB 3.1, 3P% . 429, 2P% - .364, FT% .714

Jett – 17.6 points, TO 3.6, Block 0.7, Steals 1.9, Assists 6.1, Rebound 5.1, 3P% .189, 2P% .526, FT .600

McBroom – 13.6 points, TO 2.5, Block 0.1, Steals 1.3, Assists, 3.1, RB 3.6, 3P% .349, 2P% .357, FT .903

McCall – 13.1 points, TO 1.7, Block 0.1, Steals 1.8, Assists 3.1, RB 5.1, 3P% .321, 2P% .471, FT .756

Barnett – 7.8 points, TO 1.7, Block 0.4, STL 1.4, AST 1.8, RB 4.7, 3P% .312, 2P% .407, FT .583

Ash was a sophomore last year, so if we compare his sophomore stats to those of Jett, McCall, and McBroom and their sophomore seasons you get:

Sophomore Seasons (40 minutes)

Ash – 9.8 points, 2.9 Turnovers, 0.1 Block, 1.1 Steals, 1.8 Assists, 8.7 Rebounds, 3P% .396, 2P% .462, FT .500

McBroom – 13.6 points, TO 2.5, Block 0.1, Steals 1.3, Assists, 3.1, RB 3.6, 3P% .349, 2P% .357, FT .903

McCall – 12.2 points, TO 2.1, Block 0.1, Steals 2.2, Assists 3.8, RB 3.2, 3P% .348, 2P% .490, FT .755

Jett – 11.7 points, TO 2.4, Block 0.4, Steals 2.1, Assists 3.8, Rebound 5.0, 3P% .333, 2P% .477, FT .625

For whatever reason, I had thought his stats were a little better than this. He averaged 12 minutes a game last season and played in 31 games. He is a big 6'4" guard which is great. He will be a fourth year Junior and will probably see significant time next season.

[Bizziken]

Good data!

A lot of Villanova fans I've talked to were confused as to why Yacoubou wasn't playing more in 12-13...he played exceptional defense, could shoot the rock well, and, from all outward appearances, seemed like a legit candidate for big minutes. Nova does have a pretty high talent level, so Ash was never a top option...that could be a big reason for his apparent lack of output. We will definitely need him to score, so hopefully he grows into that role...

[Taj79]

My buddy is a 'Nova season ticket holder. His explanation on Ash was not that Ash was a problem, but the fact that every year, some player on the Nova roster bcomes Jay Wright's whipping boy. And he felt that was the case with Ash. As far as he knew, everybody loved Ash when he played ... ala what Bizz says above.

Given the lack of proven scoring talent on next year's team, Ash is going to have to play the role of a big contributor on offense. Can he do that? Only time once again will tell. As noted elsewhere, the college game is perceived as a guard's game. It should not be surprising then that our greatest years involved multiple guards with Waldman, Claggett, Highmark and Turner; 5-star legend Larry Hughes; and the recent run of Mitchell, Jett, McCall and McBroom. Going forward, we only really have McBroom left with four unknowns. And given McBroom's end of season decline (or whatever you want to call it) that does not bode well.

Embrace a year of experimentation.

[Billfan78]

This is a lazy comparison but is Ash similar to Reggie Bryant? They seem to be similar sizewise and I have heard Ash can shoot from the outside.

[ACE]

A lot of positives - very highly regarded coming out of high school. His size, shooting ability and the fact that he enjoys playing defense. Crews spoke very highly of his character in an interview yesterday. Villanova is known as Guard U - they bring in a lot of quality guards, so it could simply be a case that he got lost in the shuffle. Creek, Sanford and Sibert are all guards that transferred into the A-10 and made an immediate impact. I'm hoping for the same from Ash. Scoring figures to be a challenge next year, so we need Ash to be a double-digit scorer. I will be disappointed if he is not.

[MB73]

My buddy is a 'Nova season ticket holder. His explanation on Ash was not that Ash was a problem, but the fact that every year, some player on the Nova roster bcomes Jay Wright's whipping boy. And he felt that was the case with Ash. As far as he knew, everybody loved Ash when he played ... ala what Bizz says above.

Given the lack of proven scoring talent on next year's team, Ash is going to have to play the role of a big contributor on offense. Can he do that? Only time once again will tell. As noted elsewhere, the college game is perceived as a guard's game. It should not be surprising then that our greatest years involved multiple guards with Waldman, Claggett, Highmark and Turner; 5-star legend Larry Hughes; and the recent run of Mitchell, Jett, McCall and McBroom. Going forward, we only really have McBroom left with four unknowns. And given McBroom's end of season decline (or whatever you want to call it) that does not bode well.

Embrace a year of experimentation.

I heard the exact (exact) same thing from a long time Nova season ticket holder who goes back to the days of Rollie M.; he added that the fans see this, and sometimes are upset because a few times the team has faltered and they believe Wright's tactics backfired.

So hopefully Ash is ok and will use his talent well, he had a year here to get acclimated, he is a potential impact player for us for next year. "Potential".

[wgstl]

My buddy is a 'Nova season ticket holder. His explanation on Ash was not that Ash was a problem, but the fact that every year, some player on the Nova roster bcomes Jay Wright's whipping boy. And he felt that was the case with Ash. As far as he knew, everybody loved Ash when he played ... ala what Bizz says above

Ive heard the exact same thing.

[Scoop]

I don't believe scoring will be a challange next year. Defense is what I worry about.

[slu72]

I think D will be the Senior's legacy for the Bills going forward. If our FR learned one thing this year it's if you don't play D you plain don't play. Will we be the D force we have been? Probably not at the beginning, but it will come around.

[wgstl]

Even tho hes a strict 2 combo guard(?) Atleast thats what I imagine he'd be, I wonder how well he could play the 3. Hes a true 6'4 but also a little bulkier than alot of if not most guards. I'm only asking because unless we use the other scholarship on a juco SF, thats the position im most worried about.

Think deuce bello for mizzou, 6'4 196! And he covers the 2/3 spot.

[wgstl]

I think D will be the Senior's legacy for the Bills going forward. If our FR learned one thing this year it's if you don't play D you plain don't play. Will we be the D force we have been? Probably not at the beginning, but it will come around.

Ya its hard to say, our bigs will be there but guards that are mainly fr along with austin who granted played better d as of late, may be pretty far behind.

It should also be noted that roby is and was known in Memphis for his lock down defense. Any offense we see early on is a bonus.

[Bills By 40]

I don't believe scoring will be a challange next year. Defense is what I worry about.

Agreed. Returning AM, GG, TL, MC, RA, and JM, we can expect about 67 ppg if everything were purely statistical... Realistically I think we could expect double-digit averages from AM, TL, JM, and AY, and close to it from GG, RA, and MC. The rest are to be proven.

As for defense, I just hope that AM can put his quickness we've seen on the offensive end to good use on the defensive end. We'll have some size inside, but with that size comes a ton of inexperience. If everyone reaches their potential we'll be solid. NCAA tourney here we come.

[slufan13]

Agreed. Returning AM, GG, TL, MC, RA, and JM, we can expect about 67 ppg if everything were purely statistical... Realistically I think we could expect double-digit averages from AM, TL, JM, and AY, and close to it from GG, RA, and MC. The rest are to be proven.

As for defense, I just hope that AM can put his quickness we've seen on the offensive end to good use on the defensive end. We'll have some size inside, but with that size comes a ton of inexperience. If everyone reaches their potential we'll be solid. NCAA tourney here we come.

We only had 3 guys this season average double digits. How is it realistic to expect that from 4 guys next season? Rob Loe averaged 10.3 ppg and it's realistic to expect 10+ from Manning?

Not saying it won't happen. Just not sure it's realistic.

[Westy03]

People seem to forget that we were a pretty bad offensive team this year but our defense was top notch. Next year we will struggle defensively but there wont be that big of a drop off on the offensive end

[Scoop]

We only had 3 guys this season average double digits. How is it realistic to expect that from 4 guys next season? Rob Loe averaged 10.3 ppg and it's realistic to expect 10+ from Manning?

Not saying it won't happen. Just not sure it's realistic.

You have to play to score.

[slufan13]

You have to play to score.

I don't understand this post at all.

We had 5 guys play heavy minutes this season. Only 3 averaged double digits in points. And now it's realistic to expect 4 guys who have hardly played to average double digits?

[Dwayne's_World]

Let's be honest, we were ranked near the middle/bottom of D1 in many offensive categories this year. The 0-15 on 3's against Louisville only further magnified our lack of offense for the season. We were able to pull out so many wins because of phenomenal defense, and I hope that will always be an emphasis in our program.

But who's to say the offense won't actually get better? Crews is recruiting players with more offensive capability than we've seen. Lancona is going to be a better 3 point shooter than Cody, no doubt. Crawford has a thousand times more scoring ability than Barnett, and he showed it in a fraction of the playing time that Barnett got. Ash was recruited by schools like Kentucky/Nova (have we ever had a player who was recruited by such big name schools?) and supposedly never got a real shot to lead a team at Nova. Now he does, and I think he will be an even better scorer than McCall (and McCall was obviously a phenomenal scorer for us).

Yes, there are a lot of questions going into next season. Leadership is a big one, and productivity from Manning/McBroom will also be scrutinized. But we are certainly not going to be as bad as some people think. The coaching staff knows what they need to do to win, and they know what they need to do to get better.

[Bills By 40]

We only had 3 guys this season average double digits. How is it realistic to expect that from 4 guys next season? Rob Loe averaged 10.3 ppg and it's realistic to expect 10+ from Manning?

Not saying it won't happen. Just not sure it's realistic.

Realistically might not have been the best word to use. I guess I meant statistically. But REALISTICALLY, I think we should see double digits from AM, AY, and TL. AM almost did it this year and TL has shown me enough to give me faith that he can do it. I have a lot of expectations/hope for AY.

People seem to forget that we were a pretty bad offensive team this year but our defense was top notch. Next year we will struggle defensively but there wont be that big of a drop off on the offensive end

Exactly. Expect to see some 80+ point games.

I don't understand this post at all.

We had 5 guys play heavy minutes this season. Only 3 averaged double digits in points. And now it's realistic to expect 4 guys who have hardly played to average double digits?

They may have hardly played, but now they're going to have to play a lot. I think they have what it takes to put it through the hoop, we'll just have to see if they have what it takes to lock it down on the other end.

[brianstl]

Don't know what the offense will look like, but it is hard to imagine it could be worse than this season.

[Bills By 40]

Don't know what the offense will look like, but it is hard to imagine it could be worse than this season.

No chance it will, because our defense sure as hell won't be as strong and there has to be something to make up for it: i.e. improved offense.

NOTE: I don't think our defense will be bad, just no chance that it will be as phenomenal as it was this past year.

[Scoop]

I don't understand this post at all.

We had 5 guys play heavy minutes this season. Only 3 averaged double digits in points. And now it's realistic to expect 4 guys who have hardly played to average double digits?

Talking about Manning. He gets 30 min, he'll get 10 points.

[cgeldmacher]

As we look towards next season we have to speculate on how good of a team we will have. I was thinking about Ash and how much he will contribute next year. I like to look at player production based on the actual production from when that player played. Here are Ash's stats from last year at Villanova based on 40 minutes of play versus some of the Billikens this year and their stats based on 40 minutes of play.

2012 - 2013 (40 minutes)

Ash – 9.8 points, 2.9 Turnovers, 0.1 Block, 1.1 Steals, 1.8 Assists, 8.7 Rebounds, 3P% .396, 2P% .462, FT .500

2013 - 2014 (40 minutes)

Crawford – 10.7 points, TO 2.4, Block 0.0, Steals .9, Assists 2.2, RB 3.1, 3P% . 429, 2P% - .364, FT% .714

Jett – 17.6 points, TO 3.6, Block 0.7, Steals 1.9, Assists 6.1, Rebound 5.1, 3P% .189, 2P% .526, FT .600

McBroom – 13.6 points, TO 2.5, Block 0.1, Steals 1.3, Assists, 3.1, RB 3.6, 3P% .349, 2P% .357, FT .903

McCall – 13.1 points, TO 1.7, Block 0.1, Steals 1.8, Assists 3.1, RB 5.1, 3P% .321, 2P% .471, FT .756

Barnett – 7.8 points, TO 1.7, Block 0.4, STL 1.4, AST 1.8, RB 4.7, 3P% .312, 2P% .407, FT .583

Ash was a sophomore last year, so if we compare his sophomore stats to those of Jett, McCall, and McBroom and their sophomore seasons you get:

Sophomore Seasons (40 minutes)

Ash – 9.8 points, 2.9 Turnovers, 0.1 Block, 1.1 Steals, 1.8 Assists, 8.7 Rebounds, 3P% .396, 2P% .462, FT .500

McBroom – 13.6 points, TO 2.5, Block 0.1, Steals 1.3, Assists, 3.1, RB 3.6, 3P% .349, 2P% .357, FT .903

McCall – 12.2 points, TO 2.1, Block 0.1, Steals 2.2, Assists 3.8, RB 3.2, 3P% .348, 2P% .490, FT .755

Jett – 11.7 points, TO 2.4, Block 0.4, Steals 2.1, Assists 3.8, Rebound 5.0, 3P% .333, 2P% .477, FT .625

For whatever reason, I had thought his stats were a little better than this. He averaged 12 minutes a game last season and played in 31 games. He is a big 6'4" guard which is great. He will be a fourth year Junior and will probably see significant time next season.

Great information. I actually expect Ash's number to be better, because I believe he will be one of the focal points of our offense. When he got his limited minutes at Villanova, I suspect that the situation didn't give him the confidence to make full use of his offensive talents. Next season, I believe that Crews and the staff will put a lot of faith in Ash, giving him the confidence to show everyone what he really can do. It seems to me that he never had that at Villanova.

[doowop]

Unless they are VERY accurate shooters, in order for players to average double figures next season, they will have to average double figures in shots attempted. If Hughes had averaged the number of shots this year's best players averaged, he would not have averaged anywhere near what he averaged. SLU needs at least two players to average double figure shots taken, imo.

[Taj79]

All I'll say is that some of you guys are unabashed homers. Not that there's anything wrong with that as Seinfeld used to say. But you want to feel comfortable in extrapolating the things you are, go for it. Again, embrace the experience of watching these kids grow.

I, for one, don't think its a good idea to place expectations of any sort on any of these guys. At least anybody with such a lack of output documentation as we see now. Dwayne, Jordair, Mike, Rob .. sure. The others? No fuoking way. For example, John Manning's scoring average, in games he's played, has gone from 0.5 to 1.7 to 2.5 in his first three years. That's means if the average continues, we can expect a whopping 3.5 ppg this coming year. Ludicrous? Sure. Maybe. Grandy went from 0.2 to 3.1 to 3.8, meaning an expectation of 5.6 ppg might be reasonable. Ludicrous as well? I'm not so sure on this one but I'll stay with reasonable. I like the extrapolation on folks playing 40 minutes a game. That's relevant but is it real? No one plays 40 minutes a game but in the case of either Manning or Glaze, Manning went from 3.9 to 5.7 to 11.9 mpg over this same time; Glaze from 3.2 to 12.0 to 12.9. The only thing I'll say here is ask the question what makes any of us think either can be expected to stay in a game much longer? The question being relevant to "foul trouble."

As for McBroom, how about looking at matchups. McBroom is no longer the unknown. He's the only known. He came out early conference schedule blazing. And when they teams got to know him and what he did, they adjusted and he went down (despite Nick saying it's because of a girlfriend). Another issue I have is that he's 5'9" and 165# and he's short and has a low shot release. And everybody knows. And without having Jett or Loe or McCall on the court for balance ..... just saying, be conservative in your expectations.

I truly hope Lancona and Crawford meet the expectations. Lots of guys never met mine. Want a history lesson? I didn't think so.

Embrace the experience.

[slufanskip]

With Manning we need to worry more about his ability to rebound. In 12 mpg he avg'd 1.6 boards. Even if we doubled his minutes due to need that would be just over 3 boards per game. That won't cut it. Over the last 4 games he played 70 minutes so about 18 per game and he's averaged 5 pts and 2.2 boards. I'd love to see more from Manning, however, I've seen nothing to make me believe he's good for more than 15-20 mpg 6 or 7 points and a way too sad rebound total of 3.