Predicted Records- 1st Draft

[aj_arete]

Yes, I realize we haven't seen them practice once. However, I just perused the schedule. Let's call this the rough draft version:

I have them going 16-12 (10-6 conference, 6-6 nonconference). That might get them a NIT bid

What do you guys think?

[slu72]

I've perused it and perused it again and again. I'm thinking most likely is 11-16. I like doing this now, and hell why not, the mags all do it. But think the official contest ought to come after the second exhibition game. By the way this saturday I perused a lot of the hoops mags at Barnes and Noble (got to do something while she shops for her 673rd pair of shoes) and find they are all pretty much in agreement that we will finish one rung up from the bottom of the A-10. This included Lindy's, S&S, Sporting News, CBS, and a few others I can't remember. Leads me to believe these things are a follow the leader type deal and not much real analysis or thought goes into them. If they knew anything about UB, they'd know we're gonna play tenacious D which ought to let us steal a few. I can't accept the fact we're only gonna win 3-4 games in the A-10, which is what it would take to end up in 11th place.

[Cowboy]

One comment I want to make on the schedule at this point is to me it is a long way to go to play one game in Hawaii.

Not sure I noticed this until I printed the schedule last week.

I guess they couldn't find anyone to play on the left coast coming or going.

The Bills record last year, imo, was greatly influenced by the inability to score which, also imo, was mostly caused by horrible shooting. If we shoot above 45% this year, we win more than 16 games.

But I just looked at last yr's stats and we outshot our opponents on a % basis. That amazes me.

[STLfan]

Eastern Illinois - W

@Hawaii- W

Southern Illinois - L

@UW-Milwaukee - L

Jackson State - W

@North Carolina - L

@Oakland - W

@Mississippi - L

Kennesaw State - W

Gonzaga - L

Chicago State - W

Iowa - W

St. Bonaventure - W

@George Washington - L

@UMass - L

@Richmond - W

@Xavier - L

Saint Joseph's - L

Fordham - W

@Rhode Island - W

Xavier - L

@Dayton - L

@Duquesne - W

Temple - W

Rhode Island - W

@Charlotte - L

@La Salle - W

Atlantic 10 Tournament Win 1 and Lose 1

16-13 Total

7-5 Non Conference

8-7 A10 regular season

1-1 A10 Tournament

[kshoe]

that we'll only win 3-4 games in the A-10 yet you only pick us to win 11 games total? Lets say you are assuming we win at least 5-7 games in conference (lets call it 6) and only 5 non-conference games

We have 4 cupcakes on the schedule this year and while last years team lost to some cupcakes you have to assume this years team won't. I now have you at 10 wins. You only expect us to get one win from all these 8 games???

@ Hawaii

vs. SIU

@ UWM

@ UNC

@ Oakland

@ Miss

vs. Gonzaga

vs. Iowa

Stop with the knee jerk reactions by focusing on last years awful first half and realize that this team was 6-10 in a relatively strong CUSA once Brad played Ian exclusively, not even considering another 4-5 conference games wich could have been won. Last year was a hiccup. We will get well over 11 wins when all is said and done.

[slu72]

Please enlighten me as to the lock game you see on this list? I'd be delighted coming out of these eight games with one win. Granted, Oakland probably won't be the team they were last year but it's away. I'm holding my final guesstimate until after the two exhibitions. Right now all we're going on is hearsay and conjecture. Hey, I hope you're right and we do win 15 or 16 games as some suggest, but for right now I'm figuring this is going to be a year of laying the foundation for future success. I'll be surprised if NC wins 17 games this year and they've got one of the best recruiting classes in the nation.

[Newberry]

Ihace them going 7-22 for the season. Until they show me something, they will not win more than 7.

[kshoe]

in those 8 but none of them, save maybe the UNC game (and they lost a lot), is a guaranteed loss either. 3 games at home. 1 certainly winnable game at Oakland and two games that could be won at UWM and Hawaii and your telling me you'll be thrilled with 1 win??? Sports being what they are and you can almost always expect to win a few games every year that aren't expected.

For instance, past shockers:

04-05

W vs. Memphis

W @ Marquette

03-04

W @ Dayton

W vs. Memphis in CUSA

02-03

W vs. Louisville

W @ Cinci

Go check out Ken Pomeroy's RPI website sometime during the season. they predict a team's W-L record based on a teams favorite/underdog status in every game and assigns a probability to win each game. A 7 point underdog may be a 25% probability team to win the game, or something like that. The way the site does it you could be a major underdog (20% probablity to win for instance) but if you play 5 games just like that on average they would expect you to win one of those. In those 8 games I feel pretty confident that our "expected" winning % is well above 1 game and is probably 2.5 or so.

Despite Billikenlaw pumping up Oakland we should win that game. And no way we should lose all three home games to SIU, Iowa and Gonzaga.

[cheeseman]

Cowboy, given the stat you just shared - the problem was then actually either free throw shooting or turnovers or both. The question you have to ask then is are we better in those areas or not - if better we win more games if not we struggle again.

[bauman]

I haven't counted all of our games, but you missed our home game on 3/1 against Dayton-do you put that in the W or L column?

[STLfan]

Thanks. I think we'll win that one.

17-13 Total

7-5 Non Conference

9-7 A10 regular season

1-1 A10 Tournament

That is probably a little bit to optimistic but you never know.

[TheGoat]

Just b/c we shot a better % does not mean that more of our shots went in. Our problem was not putting the ball in the basket, IMO it was related more to us not being able to get good shots down the floor EVERY time. There is the real relevance to that stat.

By the way if we play 27 games, im gonna call it at 14-13. Just a guess as our non-conference schedule looks pretty hard to me.

[billiken_roy]

we dont know yet if he will start drejaj over lisch or liddell, we dont know if he will be forced to play four guards? we havent seen how the two centers have progressed? we dont know if obi wan is ready or will be redshirted? we dont know if polk learned how to play point guard yet? this question shouldnt be asked until about a month from now.

[Billiken Rich]

nm

[Box and Won]

I'm with you - there are just too many question marks right now, but if I had to guess, I would say:

11-17

[billiken_roy]

i think the two big keys are the pf spot and the extent the keys are given to lisch and liddell. if we find get near double double production from a power forward (not a combination. A power forward) and lisch and liddell are both playing 30+ minutes and scoring in double figures, i would assume at least 500. if either of the two hopes above are not there, who knows. might be a repeat of last year.

[tseugnekillib]

..

[billiken_roy]

i said near double double. i.e. something like 8 ppg and 8 rpg would be acceptable. but newborne and johnson COMBINED didnt even come close to double double numbers last year.

[StLouBlue]

This team has to play well on the road, last year they were terrible on the road in the non-conference season. I think it is a lot to ask of this team, with a lot of young players expected to play large roles, but in order to get around 500, they will have to step up and play good ball on the road. We have 5 non-conference road games where I would guess we will come in as the underdog in every one of them, but I also think we should have a chance at winning each of them except NC. If we can go 2-3 in these road games, I think we could be a 500 team this year, a 1-4 or 0-5 and getting over last year's 11 wins might be the new goal.

[3star_recruit]

Is that you Roy on baskeballboards.net predicting a 4th-6th place finish in the A-10 or did someone steal your handle? If it is you then I think we can put you down for the "above .500" group.

I've been reading a lot on the A-10's personnel, the projected all-conference teams and thinking about matchups at each position. I sincerely believe that we have 2 of the best 3-4 freshmen in the conference. But that alone is not going to be enough to overcome the lack of an all-conference 1st or 2nd teamer on this year's squad. I can see us finishing anywhere from 8th to 10th this year, then breaking into the top third of the league next year. I'm not sure what record that translates to in a 14 team conference, though.

[billiken_roy]

well i do expect that soderberg will do the right thing and give the keys to lisch and liddell. so i am definitely leaning to the 500 side.

[thetorch]

Last couple years I have picked way over the Billikens actual record. This year I am not being fooled.

Worst case scneario 6 or 7 wins. Most likely 9 or 10 maybe we can squeeze out 12 but that would be a surprise.

[bauman]

EIU--------------W

Hawaii-----------L (Too far to go to play a good team)

SIU--------------W (We're just as quick this yr. & at home)

UW-M-------------W (They're no surprise this yr-Horz. League)

Jackson St-------W

UNC--------------L (We see what an avg. ACC is like)

Oakl.------------W (They're worse than lst yr-we're better)

Miss.------------L (Avg SEC team beats as avg A-10 team @SEC)

Kenn St----------W

Gonz.------------L

Chic. St---------W

Iowa-------------L (Top tier B10 team)

St. Bon.---------W

@GW--------------L

@U Mass----------L

@Richmond--------W

@Xavier----------L (We never could beat them, still can't)

St. Joe----------W

Fordham----------W

@URI-------------W

Xavier-----------L (See above)

@Dayton----------L (Gregory beats Brad)

@Duq-------------W

Temple-----------W (Classless JC & his goon are on suspension)

URI--------------W

@Charlotte-------L

Dayton-----------W (Payback for Brad)

@Lasalle---------W (Tom Gola is gone)

17-11 going into A10 tourney. Not knowing who we'll play, I can't predict Tourney W/Ls. Beware, because I thought we would be good last year, but I counted on TF and RB giving us a lot more than they did. I also thought VN would be a real contributor. I'm encouraged by the reports on IV and JJ and think (hope) TL & KL will be real good from Day 1.

[davidnark]

Those are impressive stats 3 Star offered. However, in today's college basketball world freshmen can make an enormous impact. Dickie V has practically made a career off the diaper dandy concept. With so many "stars" bolting for the NBA, a kid like Liddell has a chance to be one of the best guards in the league from day 1.

[Scoop]

Good post and predictions bauman. Too many wins in the A10 though. A .500 season with a NIT bid is a good building year. NCAA next year. I hope they prove me wrong this year.