The Wiz Posted February 10 Posted February 10 We start with a tale of 2 Joeys. We began the season with promise but needed to come together as a team. After some ups and downs in the OOC schedule we seemed to gel at the first St. J game. With the win over St. J, we were a B team poised to take the next step to B+. Since then we have moved sideways. We are caught between 2 Joeys...game 1 Joey and game 2 Joey. Our record after Joey 1 is 5-4...the last 6 games (including the 2nd Joey) we have been in an alternating pattern of win /loss ...3-3...W L W L W L. If the pattern holds ...next up should be a win. But it's not just the pattern, it's the data too which shows we could be ripe for a win. The computer didn't punish us because of the bigger than expected spread against SJ. It saw that with less than 5 min to go in the game we were within the spread ( 4pts ) and we had done so while Jimerson was missing. So it figured we did what we were supposed to do and again moved us sideways in our ranking. Let's take a look at the upcoming GM game. Game preview.... First , let's deal with the elephant in the room..... GM defense. We are not just talking about the best defense in the A10 but one of the best defenses in the nation (see Report Card below). The counter is we have a better offense. If it shows up and makes some shots we have a chance to win....a 50.75%. This was a strange data set....the computer has us winning by 1 but qualified it and said we either will win in a close one or get bombed (lose by 10+)...The computer chose that we win a close one. It liked that we beat St. J in TOs..a stat we have been having a problem with recently. But it isn't just the quantity of TOs but the quality of TOs....There are good TOs and bad TOs. A good TO is you give the ball up and there is no score on it ...a bad TO is you give it up and the opp scores. In the St. J game we won the TO battle BUT lost the Pts off TOs. So in this game which could turn into a low scoring defensive battle the Pts Off TOs becomes an important stat for us to win. The other stat that will affect the out come of the game will be the mystery stat...3 pt shooting...will it show up (36%)? If it does it could mean a W. As I mentioned in the GDT (most recent St. J game...post game analysis), the real secret for the Bills in this game and all the remaining games will be to limit opponent possessions. When the possessions are close, we usually win the game. We are not talking about a few extra possessions..... in the losses we have had , the other team has had 50-100% more FGAs.... Unacceptable.... For all the talk about TOs and Rebs...FGAs are the real issue. We may be the better team most of the time but if we keep giving the other team extra shots , we lose. Can we win? ...yes if we don't give them extra shots...this concept is especially important when you are playing one of the top defensive teams ITN. Top 4... This week's race is projecting VCU, GM, SLU and Day as the top 4.... with St. J in the wings if someone falters. While this has been predicted for a few threads the difference is Day has faltered a bit and St. J is tied for 4th. It is a 3 team race for 3rd and 4th in the A10. While this is an important game from a stand point of staying in the top 4 , this game takes on additional significance as a tie breaker for the 4th spot in the A-10. Not only if we would tie with Mason but also if we tie with anyone else for 4th, this likely would be the game used to determine who finishes 4th. The good news is we are in 3rd and will stay there if we win. We are still a B team. The computer still thinks we need to get to B+ to stay in the top 4 and have a chance to win the A10 tourney. The computer also thinks that 12-6 will take the 4th spot. A team might be able to slip in with an 11-7 but 12 wins is more of a sure thing. Let's take a look at the Report Card and see what's happening. Report Card.... Report Card change....0 up...2 dn...7 unchanged = -2...overall we are still moving sideways but the numbers are starting to erode a bit. UP.....OFF....none....DEF....none Dn....OFF....FG%...DEF........PPG ................SLU................GM.................SLU........................GM ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C-..................D+.......................B-............................A+...9th ITN FG%..........B+.................B.........................B+...........................A+...3rd ITN 3P%..........C...................C..........................A..............................A+...12th ITN FT%..........D-.................D+........................................................ Reb............C..................A-........................D-..............................A- OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........4th.....dn Asst....Swope........69th...up 3PM......Jimerson...52nd...dn ..............Swope.......49th...dn Reb....Anya............36th...dn FG%...Anya..........54th ...up 2P%....Anya.........39th...up 3P%...Jimerson...100th...unch GM... FG%...Hayes ...74th Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/4...undisclosed Jimerson is listed unofficially as day to day GM None Keys to the game...Make some 3s and keep the FGA close...keep TOs down WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73......score 70 pts...Beat them with POTs (preferably long handled ones...Points Off Turnovers )...Stay within 3 rebs...Hold Haynes and Maddox to 21 pts Bottom line...Let's jar Mason with a victory. Bay Area Billiken and CenHudDude 2 Quote
CenHudDude Posted February 10 Posted February 10 7 hours ago, The Wiz said: We start with a tale of 2 Joeys. We began the season with promise but needed to come together as a team. After some ups and downs in the OOC schedule we seemed to gel at the first St. J game. With the win over St. J, we were a B team poised to take the next step to B+. Since then we have moved sideways. We are caught between 2 Joeys...game 1 Joey and game 2 Joey. Our record after Joey 1 is 5-4...the last 6 games (including the 2nd Joey) we have been in an alternating pattern of win /loss ...3-3...W L W L W L. If the pattern holds ...next up should be a win. But it's not just the pattern, it's the data too which shows we could be ripe for a win. The computer didn't punish us because of the bigger than expected spread against SJ. It saw that with less than 5 min to go in the game we were within the spread ( 4pts ) and we had done so while Jimerson was missing. So it figured we did what we were supposed to do and again moved us sideways in our ranking. Let's take a look at the upcoming GM game. Game preview.... First , let's deal with the elephant in the room..... GM defense. We are not just talking about the best defense in the A10 but one of the best defenses in the nation (see Report Card below). The counter is we have a better offense. If it shows up and makes some shots we have a chance to win....a 50.75%. This was a strange data set....the computer has us winning by 1 but qualified it and said we either will win in a close one or get bombed (lose by 10+)...The computer chose that we win a close one. It liked that we beat St. J in TOs..a stat we have been having a problem with recently. But it isn't just the quantity of TOs but the quality of TOs....There are good TOs and bad TOs. A good TO is you give the ball up and there is no score on it ...a bad TO is you give it up and the opp scores. In the St. J game we won the TO battle BUT lost the Pts off TOs. So in this game which could turn into a low scoring defensive battle the Pts Off TOs becomes an important stat for us to win. The other stat that will affect the out come of the game will be the mystery stat...3 pt shooting...will it show up (36%)? If it does it could mean a W. As I mentioned in the GDT (most recent St. J game...post game analysis), the real secret for the Bills in this game and all the remaining games will be to limit opponent possessions. When the possessions are close, we usually win the game. We are not talking about a few extra possessions..... in the losses we have had , the other team has had 50-100% more FGAs.... Unacceptable.... For all the talk about TOs and Rebs...FGAs are the real issue. We may be the better team most of the time but if we keep giving the other team extra shots , we lose. Can we win? ...yes if we don't give them extra shots...this concept is especially important when you are playing one of the top defensive teams ITN. Top 4... This week's race is projecting VCU, GM, SLU and Day as the top 4.... with St. J in the wings if someone falters. While this has been predicted for a few threads the difference is Day has faltered a bit and St. J is tied for 4th. It is a 3 team race for 3rd and 4th in the A10. While this is an important game from a stand point of staying in the top 4 , this game takes on additional significance as a tie breaker for the 4th spot in the A-10. Not only if we would tie with Mason but also if we tie with anyone else for 4th, this likely would be the game used to determine who finishes 4th. The good news is we are in 3rd and will stay there if we win. We are still a B team. The computer still thinks we need to get to B+ to stay in the top 4 and have a chance to win the A10 tourney. The computer also thinks that 12-6 will take the 4th spot. A team might be able to slip in with an 11-7 but 12 wins is more of a sure thing. Let's take a look at the Report Card and see what's happening. Report Card.... Report Card change....0 up...2 dn...7 unchanged = -2...overall we are still moving sideways but the numbers are starting to erode a bit. UP.....OFF....none....DEF....none Dn....OFF....FG%...DEF........PPG ................SLU................GM.................SLU........................GM ...........................OFF...........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C-..................D+.......................B-............................A+...9th ITN FG%..........B+.................B.........................B+...........................A+...3rd ITN 3P%..........C...................C..........................A..............................A+...12th ITN FT%..........D-.................D+........................................................ Reb............C..................A-........................D-..............................A- OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU... 2P%....Team.........4th.....dn Asst....Swope........69th...up 3PM......Jimerson...52nd...dn ..............Swope.......49th...dn Reb....Anya............36th...dn FG%...Anya..........54th ...up 2P%....Anya.........39th...up 3P%...Jimerson...100th...unch GM... FG%...Hayes ...74th Injuries... SLU... Casey & Dotzler...OFTS Thames...Ques....2/4...undisclosed Jimerson is listed unofficially as day to day GM None Keys to the game...Make some 3s and keep the FGA close...keep TOs down WWN2D2W..... Target slash 48/36/73......score 70 pts...Beat them with POTs (preferably long handled ones...Points Off Turnovers )...Stay within 3 rebs...Hold Haynes and Maddox to 21 pts Bottom line...Let's jar Mason with a victory. Thanks as always The Wiz. What scares me the most about the letter grades is GMs A+ on 3pt defense. Doesn’t bode well for us making the target 36%. The game will be played on the court, and not on paper though, so we shall see. Quote
juniorbill76 Posted February 10 Posted February 10 If the Mason game is our Super Bowl, it looks like they’re coming in with an Eagles-level defense. Quote
Taj79 Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Mason is a flawed team in a flawed league. They have posted their 10 and 1 record against teams that are a collective 44 - 53 in league play. Their lone loss was on the road to Rhode Island but they did go into Dayton and win there. They have yet to play us, the Joeys and VCU. They appear to be Darius Maddox on the exterior with Jalen Haynes on the blocks. The rest are as unspectacular as the overall A10. They do play a very tough, in-your-face defense and Tony Skinn can go nine deep. Their double opponents are Rhode Island, Geedubya, Richmond and Davidson. Slanted? You bet. Their only other true opponents have been Marquette and Duke where they lost each game by about 20. They do have the Billiken kryptonite in their DNA ..... rebounding and tough defense. Once again, another middling team that has a stable of athletes when compared to us. We will need the good Jimerson in this one. Hope he's a go. Quote
The Wiz Posted February 10 Author Posted February 10 38 minutes ago, Taj79 said: Mason is a flawed team in a flawed league. They have posted their 10 and 1 record against teams that are a collective 44 - 53 in league play. Their lone loss was on the road to Rhode Island but they did go into Dayton and win there. They have yet to play us, the Joeys and VCU. They appear to be Darius Maddox on the exterior with Jalen Haynes on the blocks. The rest are as unspectacular as the overall A10. They do play a very tough, in-your-face defense and Tony Skinn can go nine deep. Their double opponents are Rhode Island, Geedubya, Richmond and Davidson. Slanted? You bet. Their only other true opponents have been Marquette and Duke where they lost each game by about 20. They do have the Billiken kryptonite in their DNA ..... rebounding and tough defense. Once again, another middling team that has a stable of athletes when compared to us. We will need the good Jimerson in this one. Hope he's a go. Just an add on to your post. Mason's SOS is a B- as is VCU. The Bills are showing the 2nd toughest schedule so far with a B. St. J and Rich also have Bs. Highest SOS goes to Day with a B+. The rest of the A10 comes in at B- with the exception of GW which is lagging at C-. Quote
billikenfan05 Posted February 10 Posted February 10 https://www.instagram.com/reel/DFqiZUWSvhT/?igsh=ODdhOXdrb250YXRz If you needed another reason to dislike Mason. OkieBilliken 1 Quote
White Pelican Posted February 10 Posted February 10 So she likes the taste of hard wood. Why should that bother me? slu72 1 Quote
billikenfan05 Posted February 10 Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, White Pelican said: So she likes the taste of hard wood. Why should that bother me? That’s carbon bro. Quote
White Pelican Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Well, Shiite. I forgot the amateurs use aluminium or other unnatural substances. I'm not familiar with carbon bro, though. Quote
Old guy Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Well, this is interesting. Team Rankings has GM winning by one star of confidence. However when you see their spread (reflecting the bets on this game) SLU is expected to win by 66.2 over GM at 65.2. There is no better demonstration of a prediction saying either team can win. I assume Team Rankings programs favor GM over SLU, GM's defensive stats are better, but the betting public favors SLU over GM. Go Bills! Quote
HoosierPal Posted February 10 Posted February 10 @tomtimm·20m Looks like it will be a game-time decision on Jimerson. Didn't practice Sunday, probably doing limited work today. "His ankle's pretty purple but if anybody's going to give it a go, it's him," said Schertz. Quote
Scoop Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Goggles needs to show up. Come on, we need ya big fella. Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 11 Posted February 11 7 hours ago, Taj79 said: Mason is a flawed team in a flawed league. They have posted their 10 and 1 record against teams that are a collective 44 - 53 in league play. Their lone loss was on the road to Rhode Island but they did go into Dayton and win there. They have yet to play us, the Joeys and VCU. They appear to be Darius Maddox on the exterior with Jalen Haynes on the blocks. The rest are as unspectacular as the overall A10. They do play a very tough, in-your-face defense and Tony Skinn can go nine deep. Their double opponents are Rhode Island, Geedubya, Richmond and Davidson. Slanted? You bet. Their only other true opponents have been Marquette and Duke where they lost each game by about 20. They do have the Billiken kryptonite in their DNA ..... rebounding and tough defense. Once again, another middling team that has a stable of athletes when compared to us. We will need the good Jimerson in this one. Hope he's a go. Mason plays VCU (surprisingly given their close by locations, rivalry as fellow Commonwealth public universities and both being former CAA members ) and Dayton only once. That weaker conference schedule is a definite advantage for Mason in the regular season race. Mason shoots an average, pedestrian 34.0% from 3. Mason is a tall team, with starting lineup at 6'8", 6'7", 6'9", 6'5", and 6'4". This appears to be a winnable game ... if the good Billikens show up and play ball. SLU needs to protect the home court. Quote
okay Posted February 11 Posted February 11 Assuming Gibson doesn’t play tomorrow, we have an extremely limited bench. Perhaps we could try some compositions where we have all the freshmen getting a boost in minutes to compensate Quote
Matty Light Posted February 11 Posted February 11 31 minutes ago, okay said: Assuming Gibson doesn’t play tomorrow, we have an extremely limited bench. Perhaps we could try some compositions where we have all the freshmen getting a boost in minutes to compensate Gibby plays a lot of minutes. There would have to be a large bench contribution to account for them all. Hopefully Gibson is sufficiently taped up and able to play 20 minutes or more. It's a big game but March is still more important. Quote
HoosierPal Posted February 11 Posted February 11 Per Coach, Gibby was able to ‘do some stuff today at practice’. Not sure if he can go tomorrow or if he does how much he can do. So no change -game time decision Quote
Old guy Posted February 11 Posted February 11 5 hours ago, HoosierPal said: @tomtimm·20m Looks like it will be a game-time decision on Jimerson. Didn't practice Sunday, probably doing limited work today. "His ankle's pretty purple but if anybody's going to give it a go, it's him," said Schertz. From my time working in emergency rooms to earn extra money while in training, a sprained ankle generally does not present with discoloration (Jimerson's was purple as per Schertz). Discoloration is a sign of internal bleeding, it may take some time to become readily visible. Ankle injuries with significant early discoloration are generally caused by a fracture of some kind somewhere in the ankle. billikenfan05 and HoosierPal 1 1 Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 11 Posted February 11 Lines: ESPN GMU -1.5, Total 132.5; CBS SPORTS GMU -1, Total 132.5. ESPN Matchup Predictor: GMU 61.2, SLU 38.8%. Let's prove The Wiz correct and the oddsmakers wrong. Nobody beats The Wiz! CenHudDude 1 Quote
slu72 Posted February 11 Posted February 11 12 hours ago, Matty Light said: Gibby plays a lot of minutes. There would have to be a large bench contribution to account for them all. Hopefully Gibson is sufficiently taped up and able to play 20 minutes or more. It's a big game but March is still more important. I hope they start Max so GM does not dominate the boards. Mason starts an M1 tank at the 5. He will kill us on the boards if left unchecked. Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 11 Posted February 11 Mason’s Jalen Haynes is 6’8”, listed at 265. Will the KC Chiefs have scouts at tonight’s game, to assess if Haynes could shore up KC’s porous Offensive Line? Does #72 Dan Dierdorf have any remaining basketball eligibility for SLU to sign for tonight’s game? Quote
White Pelican Posted February 11 Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said: Mason’s Jalen Haynes is 6’8”, listed at 265. Does #72 Dan Dierdorf have any remaining basketball eligibility for SLU to sign for tonight’s game? Where's Jimmy Bell when you need him? (I think he declared for the NFL draft actually. Still, that wouldn't be a bad thing either.) Bay Area Billiken 1 Quote
BigMouthBilliken Posted February 12 Posted February 12 GMU +1.5 on DraftKings seems like a mortal lock Quote
Lord Elrond Posted February 12 Posted February 12 @The Wiz’s computer did not calculate the Woody Newton effect on this game. Quote
White Pelican Posted February 12 Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said: @The Wiz’s computer did not calculate the Woody Newton effect on this game. Probably not. But a one point favorite either way is pretty much a toss-up. And that's what we had. An overtime game that was won by two points. Now my rant. FFS, do we HAVE to start every damn game with a sh!t ton of turnovers? I get enough of that watching the women play. Can't our coaching staff do something about it? Or do we just need better players? Five minutes into the game and I was wishing I'd stayed home. Even just a FEW less turnovers AND/OR a couple of made free throws and we win the damn game. Rant over, enjoying a delicious adult beverage and have taken my evening blood pressure pill. Lord Elrond 1 Quote
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