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The Bills over For by 16


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Chance to Dance
 
SLU...51%...dn
 
VCU...57%...unch
Dav...50%...dn
No other A-10 teams that are at least 40%
 
Well the big news is Fordham loses their top player...Daye.  He leaves tonight for personal reasons.  A huge blow to For...the equivalent to The Bills losing Perkins except worse because For doesn't really have any depth. This is a shame for the Rams...In the preconference analysis, I mentioned that For was the most improved team in the A-10.  Now that is lost and they are back where they have been for years...bottom feeders. Daye got the winning shot on Wed against Duq. To make matters worse they will have no time to make any adjustments as they leave for St. Louis on Fri.  The thread title reads 16 pts but it could be a lot more.  The Rams are now essentially a 2 player team...Quissenberry and Chuba Ohams...who for the rest of this post will be only known as Chuba.
 
Let's get to the report card and see what's happening...
 
...................SLU.....................For..........................SLU.........................For

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............A........................C+...........................C..............................C

FG%...............B.......................D-............................C+............................C

3Pt%.............A-.......................D-...........................B..............................B

FT%...............A.......................B-.................................................................

Reb...............B+......................B..............................B+.............................D

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Off....3P%...Reb.....Def......none

Down....Off...Reb.....Def...FG%...3P%

Team FTs... Top 10 Teams ITN

FTM/gm....The Bills...2nd...dn

FTA/gm....The Bills....6th....dn

FTM / 100 possessions...The Bills...3rd...dn

FTA / Offensive play...The Bills........9th...dn

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 2nd... unch

Stls......Collins....66th....dn

FT%...Jimerson...49th ...up

Blks...Okoro...68th...up

For

Reb...Chuba...4th

Blks...Chuba...36th

Injury/ Illness

Linssen...Ques for Sat...Ankle...1/11/22...it is undecided if he will face For

Courtney...Ques for Sat...Illness...1/11/22...it is unclear if he will be ready to play against For

 

As you can see the offensive numbers for For were weak to start...now you can just take those grades and drop them down a letter. Defense will stay about the same with fill-ins.

Keys to the game

We need to get offensive and I don't mean that in a bad way.   We need to make shots.... Chuba translates into Rebs and Blks...we need to control him.

WWN2D2W....

Make the slash...48/ 38/ 77...if we do, we will win.  Out rebound them by 3...Win the TO battle by at least 1...Hold Quisenberry and Chuba to 25pts...We need to hold them as a team to under 70 pts...given their circumstances  it should be closer to 60pts.  

Bottom line...

We need to win this game...BIG.  No excuses ...just do it....If we Rubba Chuba out, we can be Ram tough and win.

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BAB's son is a Fordham grad.  While it is tough being a Bills fan, I can't imagine anythign tougher than being a Fordham fan.  There's never hope.  Even when they get good players .... Fontane, Paschall, Daye, Sever .... they leave.  Vicious cycle.

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15 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

You were shorting Fordham? You place a large bet before the line was announced?

SLU needs to enhance its "adjusted efficiency rating," a key component of the NET.  Per The Wiz, a big margin of victory helps there.  I'm not sure if the margin of victory enhancement cuts off at 10 points, or goes beyond that.

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10 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

BAB's son is a Fordham grad.  While it is tough being a Bills fan, I can't imagine anythign tougher than being a Fordham fan.  There's never hope.  Even when they get good players .... Fontane, Paschall, Daye, Sever .... they leave.  Vicious cycle.

So true- One of Fordham's biggest hoops problems is keeping the good players it gets.

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Fordham goes six deep, meaning double digit minutes.  Two more players have been in all but one game. (Covid might mess up any straight comparison of games played.)  Ten players have been in 10 or more games (of 14 played).

Four starters average over 30 minutes and a fifth 28.  So staying out of foul trouble is critical to the Rams.  Fordham is listed as 2.3 years of experience.  We are at 2.1 years of experience, so pretty even there.

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12 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Fordham goes six deep, meaning double digit minutes.  Two more players have been in all but one game. (Covid might mess up any straight comparison of games played.)  Ten players have been in 10 or more games (of 14 played).

Four starters average over 30 minutes and a fifth 28.  So staying out of foul trouble is critical to the Rams.  Fordham is listed as 2.3 years of experience.  We are at 2.1 years of experience, so pretty even there.

Fordham currently has 3 players averaging 30+ min/gm...1 player with 28...1 with 15min and all the rest with under 10.....

No Depth= Trouble

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44 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU needs to enhance its "adjusted efficiency rating," a key component of the NET.  Per The Wiz, a big margin of victory helps there.  I'm not sure if the margin of victory enhancement cuts off at 10 points, or goes beyond that.

There is no more scoring margin...it is hidden in the NET Efficiency rating....the largest component of the NET ratings....The 10 pt limit was under the old system... now you can run the score up as much as you want and it helps your overall rating.  It is what allowed a team like Colgate to be a Top 10 team last year. The Selection committee prays that these "mistakes"  will all get auto bids (which Colgate did) and the Committee won't have to suffer the embarrassment of "fixing" things. 

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57 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Fordham currently has 3 players averaging 30+ min/gm...1 player with 28...1 with 15min and all the rest with under 10.....

No Depth= Trouble

I'd imagine Josh Colon gets more minutes with Daye gone.  He's the guy currently averaging 15 mins, but averaged almost 30 mins last season.  He's 5'10" compared to Daye 6'3", so I do think there defense may suffer with less size.  Daye led the team in scoring, but also led them in assists at 3.3 per game.  Colon is 6th on the team in assists 1.2 this season, but was 2nd with 2.8 last season.  Colon is more of a 3pt threat than Daye, but Daye was much better finishing at the rim & drawing fouls.

I know Fordham has played a zone in the past against us, but I'm not sure what Neptune is running this year.  If they play man, I'd imagine Colon will guard Collins because he's doesn't have enough size for other guys.  That's a huge advantage for SLU vs having a bigger guard on Yuri.  It's also a big advantage not having to defend Daye because Daye was really good at drawing fouls.

57 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

There is no more scoring margin...it is hidden in the NET Efficiency rating....the largest component of the NET ratings....The 10 pt limit was under the old system... now you can run the score up as much as you want and it helps your overall rating.  It is what allowed a team like Colgate to be a Top 10 team last year. The Selection committee prays that these "mistakes"  will all get auto bids (which Colgate did) and the Committee won't have to suffer the embarrassment of "fixing" things. 

We need to absolutely crush Fordham to boost our NET.  No mercy & no letting up if we get up big.  I'm fine getting starters some rest, but the subs shouldn't be in there just running clock.

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48 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

I'd imagine Josh Colon gets more minutes with Daye gone.  He's the guy currently averaging 15 mins, but averaged almost 30 mins last season.  He's 5'10" compared to Daye 6'3", so I do think there defense may suffer with less size.  Daye led the team in scoring, but also led them in assists at 3.3 per game.  Colon is 6th on the team in assists 1.2 this season, but was 2nd with 2.8 last season.  Colon is more of a 3pt threat than Daye, but Daye was much better finishing at the rim & drawing fouls.

I know Fordham has played a zone in the past against us, but I'm not sure what Neptune is running this year.  If they play man, I'd imagine Colon will guard Collins because he's doesn't have enough size for other guys.  That's a huge advantage for SLU vs having a bigger guard on Yuri.  It's also a big advantage not having to defend Daye because Daye was really good at drawing fouls.

We need to absolutely crush Fordham to boost our NET.  No mercy & no letting up if we get up big.  I'm fine getting starters some rest, but the subs shouldn't be in there just running clock.

Colon will not only get more minutes but he will probably start and therein lies the problem...In addition to Colon they will start Chuba, Quisenberry, Charlton and Rose.  After that ...all the rest of the players are averaging 2 PPG or less  and less than 10 min/gm.

Strategy...Run on them...mid way through the second half blow it open....Anytime there is a substitution...blow it open...

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3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Fordham currently has 3 players averaging 30+ min/gm...1 player with 28...1 with 15min and all the rest with under 10.....

No Depth= Trouble

Yes I understand Daye is gone.  He averaged 34.5 mpg.   Huge loss, and should be the bow on a Billiken Victory package.

 

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47 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Yes I understand Daye is gone.  He averaged 34.5 mpg.   Huge loss, and should be the bow on a Billiken Victory package.

 

Don’t overlook this game. One person for one game can be overcome. In fact, they may get fired up and come together for this one game. Their season will take a major hit from here though. The Billikens better prepare like they are the same team.

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49 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Don’t overlook this game. One person for one game can be overcome. In fact, they may get fired up and come together for this one game. Their season will take a major hit from here though. The Billikens better prepare like they are the same team.

I’m not “overlooking” this game. The Bills should dominate an inferior, short staffed team that just lost their best player. 

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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

I’m not “overlooking” this game. The Bills should dominate an inferior, short staffed team that just lost their best player. 

Yep. This one should have been a rout even if Daye was playing. I know Fordham isn't as bad as they usually are, but this is still a team outside the top 150

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3 hours ago, Littlebill said:

Yep. This one should have been a rout even if Daye was playing. I know Fordham isn't as bad as they usually are, but this is still a team outside the top 150

Before Daye quit For was a C- team....With his departure this takes them back to D where they have been for quite awhile.

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Anything short of a 20 point win is a loss, figuratively speaking.  At home.  Better talent.  Deeper bench.  Coming off a loss.

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First a trivia question....Why would a team that was losing by 16 pts with 36 seconds left in the game intentionally foul?  Because they wanted to mess up The Wiz's perfect spread.

On a more serious note, I wanted to start off the post game analysis with some excerpts from a thread I created earlier this week....WWN2D2W ...I think they are apropos in light of today's  game.

What do we need to do to win this season?

We need consistency.

This Sat  we will play Fordham...not the greatest in the conference. We will have a double digit spread in our favor.  We can win by doing less because Fordham is less of a team...BUT that doesn't mean we should.   We need to make our numbers regardless of the opponent. If we make our numbers we will win 95% of the games..

How do you develop consistency?  Focus...play basketball for a full 40 min, leave nothing on the table...Confidence...You can play basketball at a high level all the time...and Teamwork...where the sum of the parts is greater than the whole.

And inconsistent we were today.  But in the end, while it wasn't pretty, we did make our numbers.   And where we missed, we made up for it elsewhere...which is why we made the spread. You may say, we were horrible...  but we did what we were supposed to do. We didn't just win but we won by the right margin.

Let's see what happened today....bolded statements are from the original post in this thread.

Make the slash...48/ 38/ 77...if we do, we will win... Actual  45/50/77... This translates into the following ....we made one extra 3 and missed one extra 2...FTs were  right on the money....variance 1 extra pt....So we did what did what we were supposed to do...just not smoothly.

Out rebound them by 3... We did and then some...48  to 26...This stat was a game saver...This helped offset the next set of numbers.

Win the TO battle by at least 1... This was a disaster. We lost the TO battle 20-10... There is an old adage in baseball ...give up 10 walks and you will lose most games.... 20 TOs is similar to giving up 10 walks ...It is almost a sure loss. ...except we didn't lose this game. Why? Reason 1...Points off of TOs...for Fham...12 pts...for SLU...9 pts...We had 10 extra TOs yet the Rams only scored 3 pts extra pts...This was huge in letting us equalize those extra  TOs...Was it poor play by Fham or our excellent defense? We played pretty well  on defense...Rams slash...28.6/ 25/50...I will say it was our good D.  But neutralizing the extra TOs would have just made it a close game...we won by 18...What else happened?...Reason 2...as mentioned above we had 22 more Rebs than they did...That's a lot of extra rebs... enough to create an extra 18 pts.

Hold Quisenberry and Chuba to 25pts...Actual...23Pts...Bingo...we have a winner...There is that good defense.

The Rams are now essentially a 2 player team...Quissenberry and Chuba....After that ...all the rest of the players are averaging 2 PPG or less  and less than 10 min/gm..... another Bingo...The rest of the players averaged 2.75pts and the bench average play was 7 min.


We need to hold them as a team to under 70 pts...given their circumstances  it should be closer to 60pts...Defense again....see Rams  slash above... we shut them down and held the spread.

If we Rubba Chuba out, we can be Ram tough and win....We did Rubba him out...What I didn't mention in the original post was he came into the game shooting 53%...we held him to 31%...Great job.

Finally ...Grats to Okoro  with another double -double and Jones who missed a d-d by 1 pt...still 10 rebs is amazing.

Again, it wasn't pretty , but I will take wins on every game like that... especially by 18 pts.

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Kudos on your statistical prowess.  Always glad to see you hit it on the money.  This just seems to be one of those games where losing is just inconceivable.  Fordham is soooooooo bad, even with Daye Jr.  What is bugging me most of all is the eye test.  We LOOK incredibly bad and out of sync more times than not.  To play as poorly as we did in those first 12 minutes, I just cannot wait to hear what the calamity it was that the team suffered through to propel such a putrid start.  Maybe it was earth-shattering (I hope not for anyone's sake) but not knowing at this point makes it a smoke screen until the curtain is lowered.

This team is slumping in January at the start of conference season.  Usually, that is a circumstance held until mid- to late-February.  Missing Linssen really hurts.  It negates the two-headed monster in the middle and thrusts Traore into a role he can't handle just yet.  Missing Thatch was tough because it resulted in another lack of production from our now-weak bench .... Strickland and WIlliams a combined seven minutes with no points.  Yes, we had a Jones sighting but playing Jones and Collins together against Navarro and Quisenberry is actually an advantage for us in that combination.  We need Jones to rekindle his confidence as we move forward to at least spell Collins if not playing with him.  

Where would this team be without Jimerson?  This is a kid who sat on the three point line for his first year and a half and now looks like  a real all-star going forward.  But we just don't have any secondary options once Jimerson is used.  Hargrove is incredibly inconsistent.  Yes he makes a few threes here and there but the rest is an adventure.  Nesbitt hasn't found any sort of consistent rhythm to his game and the time is now.  Okoro is Okoro --- horrible one half, all-world the very next half.  And I'll stop harping on just what this offense is supposed to do.  

I agree now with some of the rest ----- this is a NIT team at best.  Maybe they get lucky and surprise.  But I'd use the rest of the year to develop these kids so if and when Perkins is back next year, they'll be ready to go and there will be no excuses.

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2 hours ago, Taj79 said:

Kudos on your statistical prowess.  Always glad to see you hit it on the money.  This just seems to be one of those games where losing is just inconceivable.  Fordham is soooooooo bad, even with Daye Jr.  What is bugging me most of all is the eye test.  We LOOK incredibly bad and out of sync more times than not.  To play as poorly as we did in those first 12 minutes, I just cannot wait to hear what the calamity it was that the team suffered through to propel such a putrid start.  Maybe it was earth-shattering (I hope not for anyone's sake) but not knowing at this point makes it a smoke screen until the curtain is lowered.

This team is slumping in January at the start of conference season.  Usually, that is a circumstance held until mid- to late-February.  Missing Linssen really hurts.  It negates the two-headed monster in the middle and thrusts Traore into a role he can't handle just yet.  Missing Thatch was tough because it resulted in another lack of production from our now-weak bench .... Strickland and WIlliams a combined seven minutes with no points.  Yes, we had a Jones sighting but playing Jones and Collins together against Navarro and Quisenberry is actually an advantage for us in that combination.  We need Jones to rekindle his confidence as we move forward to at least spell Collins if not playing with him.  

Where would this team be without Jimerson?  This is a kid who sat on the three point line for his first year and a half and now looks like  a real all-star going forward.  But we just don't have any secondary options once Jimerson is used.  Hargrove is incredibly inconsistent.  Yes he makes a few threes here and there but the rest is an adventure.  Nesbitt hasn't found any sort of consistent rhythm to his game and the time is now.  Okoro is Okoro --- horrible one half, all-world the very next half.  And I'll stop harping on just what this offense is supposed to do.  

I agree now with some of the rest ----- this is a NIT team at best.  Maybe they get lucky and surprise.  But I'd use the rest of the year to develop these kids so if and when Perkins is back next year, they'll be ready to go and there will be no excuses.

Interested to see what the board thinks Perkins chances of returning are.  I don’t think it’s likely at all but that’s my opinion.  Unless he thinks an A10 POY type of season will get him drafted, I think he’s better off going the Summer League/G League route Goodwin is on to start making money. 

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35 minutes ago, Fraz said:

Interested to see what the board thinks Perkins chances of returning are.  I don’t think it’s likely at all but that’s my opinion.  Unless he thinks an A10 POY type of season will get him drafted, I think he’s better off going the Summer League/G League route Goodwin is on to start making money. 

Perkins might not have recovered to the point where he can show in the summer g league, could be a factor in his return

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1 hour ago, Fraz said:

Interested to see what the board thinks Perkins chances of returning are.  I don’t think it’s likely at all but that’s my opinion.  Unless he thinks an A10 POY type of season will get him drafted, I think he’s better off going the Summer League/G League route Goodwin is on to start making money. 

TheOne says he plans on coming back, so I buy it. Plans are open to change though

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34 minutes ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

TheOne says he plans on coming back, so I buy it. Plans are open to change though

Am I the only one who does not understand how he can come back? I figured the COVID year would not allow a medical redshirt. Or there would have to be some NCAA approval. 

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