Auburn

[Billiken Rich]

1 hour ago, wgstl said:

Unless we win by 75 they wont fall out with a loss. 

EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Schasz]

I also am a fan of the Vols as my wife graduated from UT. Auburn since Bruce Pearl became HC has pretty much owned the Vols much to the chagrin of the Vols fans. I'd love to see the Bills beat them, but frankly I will be surprised if they do.

[Old guy]

40 minutes ago, Schasz said:

I also am a fan of the Vols as my wife graduated from UT. Auburn since Bruce Pearl became HC has pretty much owned the Vols much to the chagrin of the Vols fans. I'd love to see the Bills beat them, but frankly I will be surprised if they do.

Schasz, you may be a bit pessimistic here, look at the comparative game stats for both teams. Auburn is better than us in TO 12.1% vs 16%, Blocks 6.9 vs 3.6, Steals 10.8 vs 7.5. We beat them in FTA/FGA 0.417 vs 0.281. In  the rest of the stats we are pretty close to one another. I am not saying it will be an easy game, I am saying that if we play hard, the whole game including the last 5 minutes, we certainly can win.

[Old guy]

I was checking the prior games played by Auburn this year, they are 8-1. Connecticut beat then, and most of the other games were won by Auburn by a significant number of points, a good number of these games were against teams in the top 100 (TR). The closest win they have had this year was againt South Florida which they won by 6 pts. S. Florida is ranked at 245 and has a record this year of 3-4. Does anyone doubt that we can play better than S. Florida? We can win this game.

[slu72]

14 hours ago, Old guy said:

I was checking the prior games played by Auburn this year, they are 8-1. Connecticut beat then, and most of the other games were won by Auburn by a significant number of points, a good number of these games were against teams in the top 100 (TR). The closest win they have had this year was againt South Florida which they won by 6 pts. S. Florida is ranked at 245 and has a record this year of 3-4. Does anyone doubt that we can play better than S. Florida? We can win this game.

After the BC game, I went to their ESPN team site and noticed that USF game. It stuck out like a sore thumb. Auburn was waxing their opponents,, save for UConn, yet, beat USF by only 6 points in a low scoring affair. Makes you wonder what the Bulls did to slow them down and keep it so close. A real head scratcher. 

[wgstl]

7 minutes ago, slu72 said:

After the BC game, I went to their ESPN team site and noticed that USF game. It stuck out like a sore thumb. Auburn was waxing their opponents,, save for UConn, yet, beat USF by only 6 points in a low scoring affair. Makes you wonder what the Bulls did to slow them down and keep it so close. A real head scratcher. 

Midtown madness pointed out it was their only true road game 

[Old guy]

38 minutes ago, slu72 said:

After the BC game, I went to their ESPN team site and noticed that USF game. It stuck out like a sore thumb. Auburn was waxing their opponents,, save for UConn, yet, beat USF by only 6 points in a low scoring affair. Makes you wonder what the Bulls did to slow them down and keep it so close. A real head scratcher. 

Whatever the cause for the low margin of win against USF, it did happen. If the fact was that the game against USF was the sole away game played by Auburn, well good for us, this may be the second true away game they are playing. The whole point of what I wrote initiially is that this is a home game for us and that we (check the game stats before the USF game for both teams) are pretty close to them in the pregame stats. Please note that they are playing Northern Alabama at home today today (273 TR ranking).

[Pistol]

USF (coached by Brian Gregory) plays extremely slow. They're one of the worst shooting and worst scoring teams in all of D-I. They're near the bottom on possessions per game.

In the Auburn game, USF went out to a 9-0 lead by forcing Auburn into 6 turnovers in the first 4 minutes. They led by as much as 15 and were up 7 at half despite a 10-0 Auburn run in one stretch. Auburn won by 6 in the end - after those first 6 TOs, they only had 9 more. Gregory doesn't run a press, a scheme where he says he "tries to shrink the court" with heavy on-ball pressure. The ideal defensive set for him is if they burn close to 30 seconds and force a bad shot. They generally don't create a ton of turnovers. Auburn basically coughed it up a lot early as they adjusted, and they eventually did and settled down. Still a frustrating game and bad shooting night - which is something that happens against USF's defense - but Auburn's press got to USF in the second half and they pulled away.

But again, that's the only time Auburn played in a true road setting.

[wgstl]

noticing we're 0-3 when scoring under 74, and 8-0 when over 75.  Soooo just score 75. 

[brianstl]

3 hours ago, Pistol said:

USF (coached by Brian Gregory) plays extremely slow. They're one of the worst shooting and worst scoring teams in all of D-I. They're near the bottom on possessions per game.

In the Auburn game, USF went out to a 9-0 lead by forcing Auburn into 6 turnovers in the first 4 minutes. They led by as much as 15 and were up 7 at half despite a 10-0 Auburn run in one stretch. Auburn won by 6 in the end - after those first 6 TOs, they only had 9 more. Gregory doesn't run a press, a scheme where he says he "tries to shrink the court" with heavy on-ball pressure. The ideal defensive set for him is if they burn close to 30 seconds and force a bad shot. They generally don't create a ton of turnovers. Auburn basically coughed it up a lot early as they adjusted, and they eventually did and settled down. Still a frustrating game and bad shooting night - which is something that happens against USF's defense - but Auburn's press got to USF in the second half and they pulled away.

But again, that's the only time Auburn played in a true road setting.

Could've had Gregory.

[Bills By 40]

Auburn beat North Alabama (3-4 on the season, NET 254 before last night's game) 70-44 in a game where they were favored by 29 points. 

Not too impressed as the only thing they did particularly well was rebound, with 50. The box score is otherwise unimpressive especially against such a low-caliber team at home. If you told me Auburn would win two games without Bruce Pearl and come into Saturday fresh off a 26 point win I would've been more concerned but all things considered I am even more confident in our chances now. Big games from Okoro and Nesbitt mark my words.  

[NoCoBillsFan]

56 minutes ago, Bills By 40 said:

Auburn beat North Alabama (3-4 on the season, NET 254 before last night's game) 70-44 in a game where they were favored by 29 points. 

Not too impressed as the only thing they did particularly well was rebound, with 50. The box score is otherwise unimpressive especially against such a low-caliber team at home. If you told me Auburn would win two games without Bruce Pearl and come into Saturday fresh off a 26 point win I would've been more concerned but all things considered I am even more confident in our chances now. Big games from Okoro and Nesbitt mark my words.  

4-15 from Jabari Smith against a team like that is encouraging. Stick Nesbitt on him and feed off of his energy

[billikenfan05]

16 minutes ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

4-15 from Jabari Smith against a team like that is encouraging. Stick Nesbitt on him and feed off of his energy

Needs to stay out of foul trouble

[Bills By 40]

4 hours ago, NoCoBillsFan said:

4-15 from Jabari Smith against a team like that is encouraging. Stick Nesbitt on him and feed off of his energy

3 hours ago, billikenfan05 said:

Needs to stay out of foul trouble

Nesbitt is undoubtedly our #1 defensive option for him but I think frequently rotating Nesbitt, Hargrove, and Thatch - not necessarily subbing one for the next, but rotating them as the defensive matchup for Smith -  is the best option. If one of them isn't working effectively then reevaluate but to keep throwing something new at him should be challenging and will help keep everyone out of foul trouble. 

[Lando Griffin]

I know it’s early but this has got to be about as much as a must win non-con game as SLU is going to have.

The A-10 could round into form but right now it is a weak conference so it’s going to be tough to pick up a lot of Q1 wins, this SLU would do VERY well to win here for a nice resume building win. 

[Old guy]

I do not know if this has any significance or not, but it appears that Auburn plays more players 10+ min per game than SLU does.

Out of 11 games played since the start of their season, Auburn has used 9 players 10+ minutes in 7 games, and 8 players 10+ minutes in 4 games.

Out of 11 games played since the start of the season, SLU has used 12 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 11 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 10 players 10+ minutes in 1 game, 8 players 10+ minutes in 6 games, and 7 players 10+ minutes in two games (the last two games played against Belmont, and BC).

I do not know how to interpret this except by assuming that playing 9 players 10+ min per game regularly, may give Auburn additional flexibility in their play, and may possibly increase match up problems for their opponents. SLU is showing a tendency to  play only 7 players 10+ min per game over the last two games played.

[cgeldmacher]

On 12/14/2021 at 1:32 PM, wgstl said:

noticing we're 0-3 when scoring under 74, and 8-0 when over 75.  Soooo just score 75. 

But 75 is neither under 74 or over 75. So, technically it is in the statistical abyss.  

[dlarry]

 

Welp the Round Mound of Rebound has spoken and I’m not sure how anyone can argue with him.