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The Wiz

The Bills over Duq by 4

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Another nail biter ...this time it was  St. J...for the story behind the stats see the post game post on the spread thread.

And now it's Duq ..part 2. This game looks  to be very close...with the game changing hands frequently and finally coming down to the wire....possible OT.  The wins over St. J and LaS really didn't help our numbers...We remain at B and B...while Duq  comes in at B and trending at C+...so they have faded a little bit recently.

Let's see  what the report card looks like...

..............................SLU...........................Duq...............................................................SLU................................Duq

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C...............................C-.................................................................B+....................................A-

FG%.........................C-..............................C+............................................................. ..A-.....................................B

3Pt%........................C-..............................D..................................................................C.....................................A

FT%.........................F-....WITN...................B... .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................A+..17th ITN...............D+...............................................................C.....................................C+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....8th  ITN....up

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse....UP ....Off reb......... DOWN......Def PPG.....Tot Reb

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...31st.....up

Assts... Collins....41st.....down

Rebs...French...9th....Goodwin..10th......up and down

Off Reb....French ...9th...Goodwin...36th...up  and up

Def reb...Goodwin ...18th...French...35th....down & unchanged

Blks.....French....17th...down

FG% ...Weathers (60.1%)...52nd 

Blks... M Hughes...13th 

Report card notes....Goodwin needs 1 more Reb than Has to pass him on 100 list

Has needs 2 more blocks than than M Hughes to pass him on the 100 list.

Injury report......

Thatch...1/8/20...out indefinitely...no change

F Hughes...11/4/19....OFS...knee injury

WWN2D2W....65 is the magic number....we need to hold them to 65 pts or less...I think if we can hold them to 60 pts we have an excellent chance of winning.  Key to the game...Duq from the arc....they can't shoot 3s but are excellent at defending the 3.  We need to take quality 3 shots...fewer but better shots....We need to pack the defense closer in....Dominate the boards by 7...win the TO battle (we are now up to  B- in TOs)...11 should do it...protect the ball.  Mr Duke is Weathers...leads in PPG & FG% & rebs...stop this guy ...hold him to 11pts by holding him to 50%....min. Bills slash line...45/33/59

Bottom line...Time for pay back... If we play smart...don't give them any uncontested shots especially close in and avoid mistakes (careless TOs) we should win this game....However there is no room for error....Focus and play 40 min of basketball and the game is ours.

 

 

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-box score from the first time ...our slash was not good and they had a great second half to get from a 3 pt advantage at the half to win by 14 , our 39.5% from two would require a real hot night from 3 to win, this was our first conf road game and our relatively inexperienced team has hopefully grown up a lot since then

-on last night's show CFord said JBJ could be in line for a lot of minutes in this one, come on big fella play a great game 

-let's get this one

Saint Louis 59

Saint Louis 59
## Player GS MIN FG 3PT FT ORB-DRB REB PF A TO BLK STL PTS
  TOTALS - 200 23-63 6-20 7-18 15-24 39 24 17 15 3 10 59
00 Goodwin,Jordan * 33 6-15 1-3 1-2 1-6 7 4 3 2 0 3 14
11 French,Hasahn * 37 2-8 0-0 4-10 2-10 12 3 5 2 3 3 8
32 Bell Jr.,Jimmy * 10 2-5 0-0 2-2 3-1 4 2 1 1 0 1 6
01 Collins,Yuri * 27 1-3 1-2 0-0 1-2 3 1 3 5 0 1 3
15 Jacobs,Demarius * 19 1-8 0-2 0-1 0-1 1 2 2 1 0 0 2
22 Hargrove Jr.,Terrence   15 5-8 1-3 0-2 4-1 5 3 1 1 0 0 11
02 Weaver,Tay   29 3-6 3-6 0-0 0-2 2 4 2 0 0 1 9
03 Perkins,Javonte   22 3-10 0-4 0-1 0-1 1 2 0 2 0 1 6
10 Hightower,Joshua   7 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0
23 Hankton,KC   1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TM TEAM   0 0-0 0-0 0-0 4-0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Summary FG 3PT FT
Total 23-63 6-20 7-18
  36.5 % 30.0 % 38.9 %
First Half 9-31 3-13 4-6
29.03 % 23.08 % 66.67 %
Second Half 14-32 3-7 3-12
43.75 % 42.86 % 25.00 %

Duquesne 73

Duquesne 73
## Player GS MIN FG 3PT FT ORB-DRB REB PF A TO BLK STL PTS
  TOTALS - 200 22-48 9-24 20-25 7-29 36 14 13 21 9 7 73
05 Weathers,Marcus * 34 8-10 1-2 9-12 0-5 5 3 0 5 2 1 26
10 Carry,Sincere * 35 4-10 1-4 3-4 0-5 5 2 8 3 0 3 12
02 Austin,Maceo * 29 2-4 1-3 0-0 0-5 5 1 0 5 0 0 5
21 Hughes,Michael * 25 1-3 0-0 2-2 2-4 6 4 2 2 7 2 4
04 Norman Jr.,Lamar * 21 0-4 0-3 0-0 1-3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0
00 Dunn-Martin,Tavian   32 5-13 5-10 6-7 1-1 2 1 3 3 0 1 21
44 Steele,Baylee   21 2-4 1-2 0-0 1-5 6 2 0 2 0 0 5
14 Miller,Ashton   3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
TM TEAM   0 0-0 0-0 0-0 2-1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Summary FG 3PT FT
Total 22-48 9-24 20-25
  45.8 % 37.5 % 80.0 %
First Half 9-28 4-14 6-8
32.14 % 28.57 % 75.00 %
Second Half 13-20 5-10 14-17
65.00 % 50.00 % 82.35 %

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1 minute ago, glazedandconfused said:

Duquesne is going to see a very different Javonte Perkins this time around. 

Yes, I was just about to post that Perkins will score a lot more than 6 this time.

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31 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-box score from the first time ...our slash was not good and they had a great second half to get from a 3 pt advantage at the half to win by 14 , our 39.5% from two would require a real hot night from 3 to win, this was our first conf road game and our relatively inexperienced team has hopefully grown up a lot since then

-on last night's show CFord said JBJ could be in line for a lot of minutes in this one, come on big fella play a great game 

-let's get this one

Saint Louis 59

Saint Louis 59
## Player GS MIN FG 3PT FT ORB-DRB REB PF A TO BLK STL PTS
  TOTALS - 200 23-63 6-20 7-18 15-24 39 24 17 15 3 10 59
00 Goodwin,Jordan * 33 6-15 1-3 1-2 1-6 7 4 3 2 0 3 14
11 French,Hasahn * 37 2-8 0-0 4-10 2-10 12 3 5 2 3 3 8
32 Bell Jr.,Jimmy * 10 2-5 0-0 2-2 3-1 4 2 1 1 0 1 6
01 Collins,Yuri * 27 1-3 1-2 0-0 1-2 3 1 3 5 0 1 3
15 Jacobs,Demarius * 19 1-8 0-2 0-1 0-1 1 2 2 1 0 0 2
22 Hargrove Jr.,Terrence   15 5-8 1-3 0-2 4-1 5 3 1 1 0 0 11
02 Weaver,Tay   29 3-6 3-6 0-0 0-2 2 4 2 0 0 1 9
03 Perkins,Javonte   22 3-10 0-4 0-1 0-1 1 2 0 2 0 1 6
10 Hightower,Joshua   7 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0
23 Hankton,KC   1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TM TEAM   0 0-0 0-0 0-0 4-0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Summary FG 3PT FT
Total 23-63 6-20 7-18
  36.5 % 30.0 % 38.9 %
First Half 9-31 3-13 4-6
29.03 % 23.08 % 66.67 %
Second Half 14-32 3-7 3-12
43.75 % 42.86 % 25.00 %

Duquesne 73

Duquesne 73
## Player GS MIN FG 3PT FT ORB-DRB REB PF A TO BLK STL PTS
  TOTALS - 200 22-48 9-24 20-25 7-29 36 14 13 21 9 7 73
05 Weathers,Marcus * 34 8-10 1-2 9-12 0-5 5 3 0 5 2 1 26
10 Carry,Sincere * 35 4-10 1-4 3-4 0-5 5 2 8 3 0 3 12
02 Austin,Maceo * 29 2-4 1-3 0-0 0-5 5 1 0 5 0 0 5
21 Hughes,Michael * 25 1-3 0-0 2-2 2-4 6 4 2 2 7 2 4
04 Norman Jr.,Lamar * 21 0-4 0-3 0-0 1-3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0
00 Dunn-Martin,Tavian   32 5-13 5-10 6-7 1-1 2 1 3 3 0 1 21
44 Steele,Baylee   21 2-4 1-2 0-0 1-5 6 2 0 2 0 0 5
14 Miller,Ashton   3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
TM TEAM   0 0-0 0-0 0-0 2-1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team Summary FG 3PT FT
Total 22-48 9-24 20-25
  45.8 % 37.5 % 80.0 %
First Half 9-28 4-14 6-8
32.14 % 28.57 % 75.00 %
Second Half 13-20 5-10 14-17
65.00 % 50.00 % 82.35 %

2 take aways from that box score....#1 ...our slash line was dismal.....F-/ F-/ F-...That can't (and won't ) happen again....#2...In the report card above,  under Top 100 ITN , you will see M Hughes under blks listed as 13th ITN....he has 2.8 /gm to get that ranking....In the 1st Bills/Duq meeting he had 7 blks.... without this 1 game he would be substantial lower in the rankings and well below Has.  This can't (and won't) happen again. In the 1st game , if we shoot a normal Bills slash and hold M Hughes to a couple of blks,  we win the game.

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Personnel:  Nothing has changed since the first game; Dambrot continues starting Lamar Norman Jr. and bringing Dunn-Martin off the bench.  The Dukes still only go seven deep with Dunn-Martin and Steele being the two bench guys.  Sincere Carry still has the ball in his hands at all times.  Weathers is the horse underneath.  Hughes plays off his man and generally looks for shots to block but is foul-prone. Key to me is keeping Dunn-Martin quiet from three.  

Duquesne has lost three of their last four and the fifth game in there was an OT battle at home against Fordham that they won.  They should have gone to OT on Sunday against La Salle but David Beatty missed the second of three fouls shots to tie.  He makes all three and it's overtime and maybe a different result. Carry is their sole point guard.  Running Goodwin, Collins, Weaver and Jacobs at him with high intensity should wear him down.

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1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Yes, I was just about to post that Perkins will score a lot more than 6 this time.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more output from Yuri too.

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2nd half free-throws were killer. 

Game was close at half, then Duq got on a run. Bills kept it close, within range with 2 minutes to go. Here's the gory details:

Duq up 8, 16:44 to go, Bills make 1 of 2

Duq up 13, 13:17 to go, Bills make 1 of 2

Duq up 9, 9:49 to go, Bills make 0 of 2

Duq up 7, 8:21 to go, Bills make 0 of 2

Duq up 9, 7:55 to go, Bills make 1 of 2

Duq up 7, 5:14 to go, Bills miss front end 

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I'd like to see Jacobs trend of the last 2 games continue. 

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Also Perkins efficiency is really much better lately. He's up to 44% from inside the arc and 30% from 3. Neither number sounds high but it's pretty decent increase from where he was earlier in the season. He's raised his 2 pt % about 3% and that's not easy to do when you consider he already probably had 100 shots under his belt. 

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26 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Also Perkins efficiency is really much better lately. He's up to 44% from inside the arc and 30% from 3. Neither number sounds high but it's pretty decent increase from where he was earlier in the season. He's raised his 2 pt % about 3% and that's not easy to do when you consider he already probably had 100 shots under his belt. 

And after going 0-3 from 3 against Dayton, he's shooting 55% (11-20) from long range over the last four games.

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26 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Also Perkins efficiency is really much better lately. He's up to 44% from inside the arc and 30% from 3. Neither number sounds high but it's pretty decent increase from where he was earlier in the season. He's raised his 2 pt % about 3% and that's not easy to do when you consider he already probably had 100 shots under his belt. 

Perkins is up 8% from 3 since 01/17 aka dayton game 

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Just now, Box and Won said:

And after going 0-3 from 3 against Dayton, he's shooting 55% (11-20) from long range over the last four games.

lol dang same time, well done. 

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Javonte in the last 7 games. 

Overall   43/93 for 46%

2 pt       30/61 for 49%

3 pt       13/32 for 41%  

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6 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Javonte in the last 7 games. 

Overall   43/93 for 46%

2 pt       30/61 for 49%

3 pt       13/32 for 41%  

Here , let me finish this for you....

FT...40-48...83%...one more made and he would be going at a top 100 rate...

46 /49/ 41/ 83.....which grades out at   A- / C / A / A+

The real meaning is that if Perkins can keep up at this rate, he will be able to replace most of the missing Jimerson 3P shooting (43% vs 41%) and the Bess FT shooting from last year (79% vs 79%)

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17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Here , let me finish this for you....

FT...40-48...83%...one more made and he would be going at a top 100 rate...

46 /49/ 41/ 83.....which grades out at   A- / C / A / A+

The real meaning is that if Perkins can keep up at this rate, he will be able to replace most of the missing Jimerson 3P shooting (43% vs 41%) and the Bess FT shooting from last year (79% vs 79%)

So you have 49% from 2 as a C? Do you separate percentages from guards/wings and bigs? I'd argue that 49% from a wing is better than a C probably B+ 

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1 hour ago, slufanskip said:

So you have 49% from 2 as a C? Do you separate percentages from guards/wings and bigs? I'd argue that 49% from a wing is better than a C probably B+ 

Unfortunately , my data doesn't separate out guards in the 2 pt shot stats. You are correct that the vast majority of 2 pt shooters are Cs &Fs....on my top 100 list of 2 pt shooters only 18 are guards and most of those take little or no shots. An exception is Landers from Dayton who is shooting 70% FG% and also 40% from 3.

The FG%  though is a weighted average of 2s and 3s and tries to balance things out in a more equitable fashion. You will note in Perkins case he gets a C in 2P shooting and an A in 3P shooting...yet his overall grade is not B but A-...it is not a perfect system but then none of them are.. Take Azubuike (Kansas) shooting 76%(#1 ITN) from 2P range. The problem is  he also leads the FG% category too which is supposed to be a measure of all shots taken...and he takes no 3pt shots...so the FG%  too is not a real measure of what is going on...so I would list his slash as 76 /0/ 44...and at least this way you can see right away this is a 1 dimensional player.

The take away hereis  even without a perfect system, it is obvious that Perkins is truly an all around player.

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15 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Unfortunately , my data doesn't separate out guards in the 2 pt shot stats. You are correct that the vast majority of 2 pt shooters are Cs &Fs....on my top 100 list of 2 pt shooters only 18 are guards and most of those take little or no shots. An exception is Landers from Dayton who is shooting 70% FG% and also 40% from 3.

The FG%  though is a weighted average of 2s and 3s and tries to balance things out in a more equitable fashion. You will note in Perkins case he gets a C in 2P shooting and an A in 3P shooting...yet his overall grade is not B but A-...it is not a perfect system but then none of them are.. Take Azubuike (Kansas) shooting 76%(#1 ITN) from 2P range. The problem is  he also leads the FG% category too which is supposed to be a measure of all shots taken...and he takes no 3pt shots...so the FG%  too is not a real measure of what is going on...so I would list his slash as 76 /0/ 44...and at least this way you can see right away this is a 1 dimensional player.

The take away hereis  even without a perfect system, it is obvious that Perkins is truly an all around player.

I get what you're saying. I'll still say regardless of the C his actual 2 pt shot grade compared to guards/wings only is probably closer to a B or B+.

 

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Teamrankings just published their Vegas inspired expected scores: SLU 67.2, Duq 62.8. This favors SLU by 4.4 points and they give these scores a 2 star confidence rating. We can win this. Go Bills!

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I will try to keep this simple....

You can't keep doing the same thing and expect different results....

I was struck by the similarity of many stats...

we lost by 14pts last time we lost by 14pts  this time....

Weathers...Jan...26 pts...Feb...26pts

Duq Slash... Jan...46/38/ 80...Feb...47/ 39 /83....including ...Jan...9..3PtM...Feb ...9..3PtM   and Jan...20 FTM...Feb.. 19 FTM

Both games Duq had more FTAs than we did...which is unusual ..but they did it twice to us which is bad news. ..13 pt advantage in Jan ...8 pt advantage in Feb

In both games Duq had 2 extra 3PtM based on their average...In this game that 6 pts coupled with the 8 pt FT advantage was good for 14 pts ...or the margin of loss.

We shot a little better this game...a few more  2s and a few more FTs which was wiped out by a 10 reb deficit..we were projected to out reb them by 7  and instead were minus 10...a swing of 17 reb..

In the end,  Duq played pretty much the same game  as did we...with the same results...14 pt losses

Hopefully , we will make some changes for the 3rd meeting in Brooklyn.

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