slufan13 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 If Lancona, Manning, and Crawford got the majority of the minutes down the stretch like you are suggesting and we lost everyone on here would be calling for Crews' head. I'm not saying they should have gotten the minutes down the stretch. I said they could have at least done what the seniors did. My point is that Crews or whoever does the substitutions is putting out bad lineups in the first half (Glaze at the 5!?!?!?) and we don't put the game away. Then he rides the seniors and McBroom the whole second half. And because we haven't put teams away this season, our guys are just worn down. I'd like to see the bench used more throughout the whole game, but of course in the last 5 mins, you have to use your best players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hello Wiz, I do not want to quote your full post because it is so long, just an excerpt of it: "This is what is known as a double outlier game...outlier being an observation that is numerically distant from the rest of the data. In tonight's game , where we are heavy favorites, we had 2 things go way off....thus a double outlier. Both occurred in my favorite stat ...3pt shooting. Duq shot great (53.3%)...1st outlier ....we shot terrible (17.4%)...2nd outlier. Both of these numbers are off by about 50% from normal...that is a lot...that is why these are outliers. Oh well ...freak game ....time to move on.....and start a new 12 game win streak." I like this very much, it is clear and furthermore it is very much like what happened with the Oregon game last year. Yes, it does explain things adequately and outliers do occur (multiple outliers are very rare). However, I do have a question for you, how do you know if this is a clean outlier (even a double outlier) vs a basic change in the way we are playing? Are we ready to regress to the means now (a very good thing at this time) or not (a very bad thing at this time)? what do you think? As it turns out, Jordair injured himself last year during the A10 tournament games and probably was not playing at peak at the time of the Oregon game. At this time, and if I recall correctly, there was some indication that Dwayne had pulled a groin muscle during one of the last few games we played (and won) prior to yesterday. So, do you see anything in the numbers that indicates the Duquesne game loss is anything but a clean double outlier type of result or do you see something else? Is it too early to determine this? At this point the 3pt numbers are so far out on the edge they are still outliers. Could it be a trend instead of outlier? No. Why ? Because the best shooting team in the nation (Creighton) shoots 42.8% from 3....Teams are not going to start shooting way better (53.3%) than the best team in the nation On the converse side, the worst team (S Fla) in the nation, is shooting 25.3%....We are not going to start shooting way worse than the worst team in the nation....What really makes this game a freak is that both events happened in the same game...the only way Duq could win was for a double outlier. A one time event....time to move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thank you very much Wiz, very clear and concise. Really appreciate this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Turning point was the team not even being up before the game, during intros they looked like zombies. Also Rob not getting the foul call on the missed dunk. He moaned about it, that play right there would have been a game changer. Guys put their heads down after that. We've done this last year and this year, we are so stable emotionally, we have very few highs and lows the team gets very complacent at times. One of the few flaws of this team. Exactly. Classic letdown game. We have pushed so hard, our style is 100% effort and is unlikely to continue forever. So we had this game. Move on. It is not as simple as 3 point shooting %, as in we had an off night shooting and they had a good night. A big part of it is our EFFORT to pass the ball, set screens, and get open looks and 3 point shots that are makeable, and our EFFORT to prevent our opponent from getting open looks. It usually is our forte. I still thought we would still win by a few, which is what the kids were thinking... Vegas had us at -14, Wiz surprisingly -17. But this happens a lot. It is that time of the year. Teams clinch and look forward to the Conference and NCAA Tournaments. Where is worthless bizzleboy when we need him? There have been several double digit upsets already this year and historically so many to list as examples. Were we really ever # 10? Again, playing an 80 SOS it is hard to tell. Again, we might still be better than # 10. Vegas had us 31st before yesterday. We are the same team we were before the game yesterday and still can achieve great things. IMO our goal is to make it to The Sweet Sixteen. Sure, be greedy and shoot for more, that is fine. I would sign on the line that is dotted for The Sweet 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Can't believe I am going to say this, MB is pretty spot on again. We weren't as good as our ranking. Never thought we were. IMO, we are right around 20. Have a good shooting and we are better. Don't have the focus and effort and we have a game like last night. Last night should serve as a wake up call for the players and the staff on what this team needs to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Can't believe I am going to say this, MB is pretty spot on again. We weren't as good as our ranking. Never thought we were. IMO, we are right around 20. Have a good shooting and we are better. Don't have the focus and effort and we have a game like last night. Last night should serve as a wake up call for the players and the staff on what this team needs to do. The Bills had a few brief brushes with my Top 25 but never could get anywhere close to 10....we always had "1 of those games" whenever we were close to making a move. As you can see , I haven't had a top 25 list out for awhile....Had we won Duq and the upcoming VCU game we would have popped up there again... We have some tough games coming up ...if we win them (particularly decisively) we can get back on my list. We need to make a statement now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly. Classic letdown game. We have pushed so hard, our style is 100% effort and is unlikely to continue forever. So we had this game. Move on. It is not as simple as 3 point shooting %, as in we had an off night shooting and they had a good night. A big part of it is our EFFORT to pass the ball, set screens, and get open looks and 3 point shots that are makeable, and our EFFORT to prevent our opponent from getting open looks. It usually is our forte. I still thought we would still win by a few, which is what the kids were thinking... Vegas had us at -14, Wiz surprisingly -17. But this happens a lot. It is that time of the year. Teams clinch and look forward to the Conference and NCAA Tournaments. Where is worthless bizzleboy when we need him? There have been several double digit upsets already this year and historically so many to list as examples. Were we really ever # 10? Again, playing an 80 SOS it is hard to tell. Again, we might still be better than # 10. Vegas had us 31st before yesterday. We are the same team we were before the game yesterday and still can achieve great things. IMO our goal is to make it to The Sweet Sixteen. Sure, be greedy and shoot for more, that is fine. I would sign on the line that is dotted for The Sweet 16. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Can't believe I am going to say this, MB is pretty spot on again. We weren't as good as our ranking. Never thought we were. IMO, we are right around 20. Have a good shooting and we are better. Don't have the focus and effort and we have a game like last night. Last night should serve as a wake up call for the players and the staff on what this team needs to do. Unfortunately I'm starting to agree with you. We can still beat anyone on any night and it wouldn't shock me, but this team just isn't as good as it's ranking or as good as we want to make them out to be. And it's not just last night's performance. We've just been finding ways to win games, but we haven't looked that good doing so. IMO last night had nothing to do with how good we are. Last night was about not having energy or effort for the first 36 minutes of the game and the inability to pull out the win with our backs against the wall again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Exactly. Classic letdown game. We have pushed so hard, our style is 100% effort and is unlikely to continue forever. So we had this game. Move on. It is not as simple as 3 point shooting %, as in we had an off night shooting and they had a good night. A big part of it is our EFFORT to pass the ball, set screens, and get open looks and 3 point shots that are makeable, and our EFFORT to prevent our opponent from getting open looks. It usually is our forte. I still thought we would still win by a few, which is what the kids were thinking... Vegas had us at -14, Wiz surprisingly -17. But this happens a lot. It is that time of the year. Teams clinch and look forward to the Conference and NCAA Tournaments. Where is worthless bizzleboy when we need him? There have been several double digit upsets already this year and historically so many to list as examples. Were we really ever # 10? Again, playing an 80 SOS it is hard to tell. Again, we might still be better than # 10. Vegas had us 31st before yesterday. We are the same team we were before the game yesterday and still can achieve great things. IMO our goal is to make it to The Sweet Sixteen. Sure, be greedy and shoot for more, that is fine. I would sign on the line that is dotted for The Sweet 16. Good post. I find the Wiz's post game analysis laughable, really oversimplifies things with his post game thoughts where he tries to prove the accuracy of his prediction. Also, who needs to be told that had me made one more three we would have scored three more points? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Best posts on here in a long time. Thank you. We coasted for 36 minutes and just figured that Duquesne sucks, we'll put out the win. Defense sucked. I've never seen our guys take so many possessions off on offense. We did the same thing all night on defense. Give it to the guy on the baseline. Duquense gives baseline and cuts off the middle of the court. We pick up our dribble and scramble for 10 seconds and then get a bad shot. We didn't play hard. Don't know where the senior leadership was tonight. I can handle losses. Losses at home to Duquesne are terrible. But even worse than that was the effort and execution tonight. Even down 9 with 3.5 minutes to play, I didn't get a sense of urgency from the team. I'm not saying jack up some stupid 3, but even then I don't think we played hard enough. Mason had that miracle 3. He also missed a wide open layup. I thought that would be the turning point for us. Mason was left unguarded way too often. Dumbest thing Crews has done all season was putting Barnett on Mason. McBroom better start hitting shots. When's the last game Jake hasn't shot an airball? It's maddening. Evans has been an incredible player, but he still plays so out of control sometimes. He gets extreme tunnel vision at times. So many times last night, he had an open guy for 3 when he got the ball, but his first thought was to shoot and his second was to dribble and by that point no one is open. He needs better awareness. Good game from McCall. Manning was fine. Crawford was fine. More bench minutes please. Our guys are wearing down. 13, I couldn't agree with you more on a few of your points. I was unable to get to the game last night so I suffered through watching it and recording it. I have to believe that someone on the staff noticed that JB couldn't cover Mson or anyone else he was assigned to guard. Watching a replay and focusing on him playing defense is a real learning experience. He should be sat down with a coach to review how often he lost track of the man he was guarding and I am not talking about when he couldn not get through a screen. It is no wonder he sat for long stretches in both halves after some pi$$ poor defense. Also, at the risk of offending all of the JJ is the greatest crowd he simply needs to stop the consistent every game turnovers, 5 again last night and also needs to understand when there is no room to attack the basket. A very poor effort on his part and whiloe I am at it he is no where near the defensive player he was the last two years. I watching him on defense and on the recordings it seems like his mind is wandering as he joins in the JB disease of losing his man. MM has clearly passed JJ as our best defensive guard. Also in the what is happening category, where is the 2012-2013 DE? His judgment with the ball has regressed greatly from the end of last year as have his numbers. I know he had a double/double last night but he also had too many mistakes with the ball trying to force things that were not there. With both him and JJ you expect more from senior team leaders. In the case of JB, I just do not even expect more, we are getting what I always thought we would get from him. GG, the out of control Energizer Bunny who is good for 2-3 missed 1 -4 footers per game, while winning every race up and down the court. Please stop forcing the ball to him when he is down low in the key, it only works 1 out of 5 times. Why hasn't the team/staff/he learned that he is NOT a scorer? Finally, game awareness? Haven't we been able to learn by this point in the season that when the 35 sec clock gets down to 10 seconds, start something that looks like a move to score. Just about every game I have seen has included a couple of forced poor shots to beat the buzzer. A few times it has worked out but more often than not it hasn't. Coaching issue? I know, I know we have only lost 3 games, but we have not looked good for most of the past month or so. A team ranked 8/10th should be capable of puting a few sub-.500 teams away, especially at home. Unless we improve on some of the items an untrained eye can see, let alone what the coaching staff sees, the season will not end up as we all hope. Mr Crews, please play TL and MC more! They will give us at least what we are getting from GG and JB. On the plus side, good job RL, except last night from the 3, MM and JM, who is at least giving us what we can hope for. AB get your shot back, we need you to be a 3-pt threat again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Grandy needs a shock collar that one of the assistants can press everytime he puts the ball on the floor under the basket. He has a terrible habit of catching a pass, taking 1 dribble, and the going up. He misses about 70% of those because he gives the opponent plenty of time to recover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GG, the out of control Energizer Bunny who is good for 2-3 missed 1 -4 footers per game, while winning every race up and down the court. Please stop forcing the ball to him when he is down low in the key, it only works 1 out of 5 times. Why hasn't the team/staff/he learned that he is NOT a scorer? 3 things that are guaranteed to happen every game.: Jake airballed 3 Grandy missed/blocked 2 foot shoot Manning lose a rebound off his hands Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Grandy needs a shock collar that one of the assistants can press everytime he puts the ball on the floor under the basket. He has a terrible habit of catching a pass, taking 1 dribble, and the going up. He misses about 70% of those because he gives the opponent plenty of time to recover. Try not to take this the wrong way, but all of GG's missed bunnies remind me of Conklin his first couple seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Grandy needs a shock collar that one of the assistants can press everytime he puts the ball on the floor under the basket. He has a terrible habit of catching a pass, taking 1 dribble, and the going up. He misses about 70% of those because he gives the opponent plenty of time to recover. There was one play in which I thought Grandy was going to try to replicate the Blake Griffin-like play one of the St. Joe's players pulled off the other night. Brutal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GG: I know he weighs about the same as last year, lean muscle, and got quicker, but IMO GG served us better as a bulky banger inside that provoked fear in our opponents. He is now trying to be quicker and it is not his style. It's like Rickie Incognito losing weight to get quicker. I honestly wish he would slow down and bang away down low... gain more weight (muscle) over the summer and come back, he could really help us in that role, we will need inside play desperately next season. Again I liked his physique and style much better last year, the role was well played and needed in our mix. Does this make sense to others? Will briansl agree with me yet again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deutschkind Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Try not to take this the wrong way, but all of GG's missed bunnies remind me of Conklin his first couple seasons. What's the bad way to take it? I'm going assume he's going to come out next year, knock someone out with a pick, and clean up everything under the hoop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseOfTheBillikens Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 3 things that are guaranteed to happen every game.: Jake airballed 3 Grandy missed/blocked 2 foot shoot Manning lose a rebound off his hands Unfortunately this is completely true and absolutely hilarious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What's the bad way to take it? I'm going assume he's going to come out next year, knock someone out with a pick, and clean up everything under the hoop I figured at least one person might get upset at thr notion of comparing GG to BC. There is a glimmer of hope, I'm with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 when manning is on the floor, my blood boils. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmy two times Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 when manning is on the floor, my blood boils. Me too. Manning stinks. Zero court sense whatsoever. I'm convinced when Majerus said he was an NBA prospect he was either: a. being sarcastic b. hammered c. both a&b d. Didn't realize he was watching tape of Mason Plumlee and not JM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 when manning is on the floor, my blood boils. Yeah, I totally hated it when he had a huge dunk and then followed it up with a monster block. Made my blood boil too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Manning was #14038283 on the problem list last night. Get real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Me too. Manning stinks. Zero court sense whatsoever. I'm convinced when Majerus said he was an NBA prospect he was either: a. being sarcastic b. hammered c. both a&b d. Didn't realize he was watching tape of Mason Plumlee and not JM Didn't you use to rip Rob? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmy two times Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Didn't you use to rip Rob? Yeah but I have to groom somebody for next season. Who else is going to take Rob's place? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah, I totally hated it when he had a huge dunk and then followed it up with a monster block. Made my blood boil too. that one dunk.... that one block..... blind squirrel finding nut Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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