BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And the winning keeps coming.......... Hmm...17pts....pretty bold prediction considering we just scratched out a 4 pt win against them last time. I think some home cooking, along with some better play and a dose of killer instinct and we will make the spread. Of course, Duq is a cellar dweller...but they are our cellar dweller. In the outside world, Duq is an average team. ( C ). In 3 pt shooting, they are similar to GW...except they like to shoot more. They have one of the best shooters in the A-10....Mason....shooting 55% from 3 and overall plus 82% from FT. Here is what we need to do to win...... Stop Soko and Mason....hold Soko to 15 pts and Mason to 40% from 3....can't believe I just wrote that ...shooting 40% from 3 is usually a great night....but it will be a job to keep him at 40% Hold White and Colter to 25% from 3 We alway win when..... We hold the opp to 59pts or less.......................16-0 Jett scores 16pts or more .................................10-0 Have 14 or fewer TO...........................................9-0 We shoot 48% FG...............................................6-0 When we hold the opp to 32.8%FG%.................6-0 Ways to exceed the spread............... Hold them to 19 FGM As far as the numbers are concerned this is a no win situation for the Bills.....If we exceed the spread it doesn't help us much....if we win a close one , it hurts the numbers. I say just keep winning. Today's Trivia question.....As noted above , Duq is a cellar dweller but an average team overall. Name 2 conferences that according to the Wiz stats that Duq would be in 1st place and going for the auto bid to the Big Dance. Not a good feeling when the Wiz predicts a win. This is going to be close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 These are the predicted lines per The Wiz versus the actual result so far during A10 play (reverse order): Bills by 5 over GWU ----- Bills by 7 (+2) Bills by 8 over GMU ----- Bills by 4 (-4) Bills by 3 over VCU ----- Bills by 2 (-1) Bills by 5.5 over LAS ----- Bills by 2 (-3.5) Bills by 2.5 over STJ ----- Bills by 16 (+13.5) Bills by 14 over GMU ----- Bills by 6 (-8) Bills by 7.5 over RICH ----- Bills by 20 (+12.5) Bills by 11 over DUQ ----- Bills by 4 (-7) Bills by 19 over FOR ----- Bills by 22 (+3) Bills by 10 over STB ----- Bills by 6 (-4) DAY by 1.5 over Bills ----- Bills by 8 (+9.5) Bills by 9 over URI ----- Bills by 1 (-8) On a net basis, The Wiz is off by 5 points so far this season (Bills have outperformed by 5), which means he is averaging within 0.42 of the actual spread. However, this includes the Bills outperforming against STJ and RICH, while underperforming against URI, GMU and DUQ. The average absolute value of the variance between The Wiz and the results is 6.333. The Wiz sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 As Maxwell Smart says "missed it by that much". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yup, we lost this one against all expectations, mine included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not a good feeling when the Wiz predicts a win. This is going to be close.Saw this one coming... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not a good feeling when the Wiz predicts a win. This is going to be close.Saw this one coming... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 And the winning keeps coming.......... Hmm...17pts....pretty bold prediction considering we just scratched out a 4 pt win against them last time. I think some home cooking, along with some better play and a dose of killer instinct and we will make the spread. Of course, Duq is a cellar dweller...but they are our cellar dweller. In the outside world, Duq is an average team. ( C ). In 3 pt shooting, they are similar to GW...except they like to shoot more. They have one of the best shooters in the A-10....Mason....shooting 55% from 3 and overall plus 82% from FT. Here is what we need to do to win...... Stop Soko and Mason....hold Soko to 15 pts and Mason to 40% from 3....can't believe I just wrote that ...shooting 40% from 3 is usually a great night....but it will be a job to keep him at 40% Hold White and Colter to 25% from 3 We alway win when..... We hold the opp to 59pts or less.......................16-0 Jett scores 16pts or more .................................10-0 Have 14 or fewer TO...........................................9-0 We shoot 48% FG...............................................6-0 When we hold the opp to 32.8%FG%.................6-0 Ways to exceed the spread............... Hold them to 19 FGM As far as the numbers are concerned this is a no win situation for the Bills.....If we exceed the spread it doesn't help us much....if we win a close one , it hurts the numbers. I say just keep winning. Today's Trivia question.....As noted above , Duq is a cellar dweller but an average team overall. Name 2 conferences that according to the Wiz stats that Duq would be in 1st place and going for the auto bid to the Big Dance. While I think the U word (upset) is over used in college basketball ....I would consider this an upset. This is what is known as a double outlier game...outlier being an observation that is numerically distant from the rest of the data. In tonight's game , where we are heavy favorites, we had 2 things go way off....thus a double outlier. Both occurred in my favorite stat ...3pt shooting. Duq shot great (53.3%)...1st outlier ....we shot terrible (17.4%)...2nd outlier. Both of these numbers are off by about 50% from normal...that is a lot...that is why these are outliers. And the only way we could lose is if they both happened. Even with Duq's great shooting if we had shot about average....we get 12 more points and win.....and vice versa...if we shoot terrible and they have a normal game....they get 9 points less and again we win. So the stars lined up exactly right for Duq tonight and they won. It happens. We could play them another 10 games and win them all. Does it mean they are great team?...No ...Does it mean we are a bad team? ...No....It just means it was a freak game and the Bills need to move on. With the conference race pretty much over and an NCAA bid awaiting maybe this will be a wakeup call for the rest of the season. Let's look at the rest of the stats....while this may be painful...I am here AND accountable whether it is good OR bad...... ...................................Predicted..............................Actual Stop Soko..............Hold him to 15pt .......................12pt.................check Stop Mason...........Hold him to 40% 3pt%..............80%...................fail....In the above post I thought it would be tough to hold him to 40% and that was correct Hold White & Colter to 25% from 3........................100% (1-1).........a minor miss ...only 1 shot 59 pts or less...........................................................71pts..................miss Jett scores 16pts.......................................................13pts..................miss 14 TO..........................................................................16TO.................miss.....Too many especially against a team like Duq We shoot 48% FG........................................................40.4%...............miss We hold opp to 32.8% FG............................................43.6%................miss A lot of misses ...in more ways than one....A lot of different ways we could have won... Oh well ...freak game ....time to move on.....and start a new 12 game win streak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Everyone should read this Wiz post and we could save a lot of bitching and complaining about just the 3rd loss of the season on Feb 27... outliers... it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The turning point in the game was when mason drained that ridiculous 40 footer as the shot clock ran out. Everything went downhill after that. Still, better to lose a game now than in March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The turning point in the game was when mason drained that ridiculous 40 footer as the shot clock ran out. Everything went downhill after that. Still, better to lose a game now than in March. Definitely was. No one in the arena could believe that f'ing guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 The turning point in the game was when mason drained that ridiculous 40 footer as the shot clock ran out. Everything went downhill after that. Still, better to lose a game now than in March. Mason is unbelievable...shooting 55% from 2 & 3pt range for the season...#1 shooter 3pt% in the nation...and he had a great night at 80%......yet he blows a breakaway layup....go figure. Also I would like to give a shoutout to b hayes for doing a review of my season's predictions...saved me some time....another advantage of being out there and accountable....anybody can check your numbers....Thx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Mason is unbelievable...shooting 55% from 2 & 3pt range for the season...#1 shooter 3pt% in the nation...and he had a great night at 80%......yet he blows a breakaway layup....go figure. Also I would like to give a shoutout to b hayes for doing a review of my season's predictions...saved me some time....another advantage of being out there and accountable....anybody can check your numbers....Thx That guy was really incredible. I still believe we lost of our own volition. We played bad ball defensively and we could not sink a three. Duquesne focused on giving us three-point opportunities and we blew it. We need a lights-out shooter. The Bills have been really inconsistent from the three-line(correct me if I'm wrong, that's been my impression.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 That guy was really incredible. I still believe we lost of our own volition. We played bad ball defensively and we could not sink a three. Duquesne focused on giving us three-point opportunities and we blew it. We need a lights-out shooter. The Bills have been really incosistent from the three-line(correct me if I'm wrong, that's been my impression.) We are shooting 33.2% (Nat ave about 34 1/2%)....last 2 games....17.4% &18.8% from 3....so yes, we are consistently inconsistent and we have entered a mini 3pt slump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The turning point was when rob get fouled on the dunk and nothing was called Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The turning point in the game was when mason drained that ridiculous 40 footer as the shot clock ran out. Everything went downhill after that. Still, better to lose a game now than in March. Turning point was the team not even being up before the game, during intros they looked like zombies. Also Rob not getting the foul call on the missed dunk. He moaned about it, that play right there would have been a game changer. Guys put their heads down after that. We've done this last year and this year, we are so stable emotionally, we have very few highs and lows the team gets very complacent at times. One of the few flaws of this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68Alum Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Small guard Match-up: Mason vs McBroom: Both played 26 minutes. Mason 6/8 for 22 points. McBroom 1/8 for 2 points. This coupled with, in my opinion, the Dukes producing the best half court defense we've seen in the last 10 minutes of a game this year resulted in our defeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownwolves Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 "Can't we just have a "laugher" for once....it has been a while." Hey Wiz looks like the joke is on you! And at home too ---- Ouch,,, will somebody please take that cane out of my eye! Also from the Wiz "Today's Trivia question" Who would I rather get beat by, the Bonnies or Dukane? And the answer is "a cellar dweller but an average team". Yep throw out Duq, the Bonnies and Fordham but, NOT to worry I'm sure that the Billikens will be moving on to the Big East (even thou they are in the Mid-West) or the ACC I do wish the Billikens good luck at the Big Dance ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 "Can't we just have a "laugher" for once....it has been a while." Hey Wiz looks like the joke is on you! And at home too ---- Ouch,,, will somebody please take that cane out of my eye! Also from the Wiz "Today's Trivia question" Who would I rather get beat by, the Bonnies or Dukane? And the answer is "a cellar dweller but an average team". Yep throw out Duq, the Bonnies and Fordham but, NOT to worry I'm sure that the Billikens will be moving on to the Big East (even thou they are in the Mid-West) or the ACC I do wish the Billikens good luck at the Big Dance ! What happened? Did you suddenly awaken from winter hibernation with the abominable snowmen amidst those Enchanted Mountains? Your St. Bona team might make the NIT, as in Not In Tournament, maybe. But even if that happens, your team will be shipped off somewhere as a bottom seed, facing probable NIT First Round extermination. Otherwise, it's CBI/CIT baby for the Bonnies. But if you were in that Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) where you belong, you would have a lot better chance at losing a first round game in the Big Dance (NCAA), assuming of course you could get by Iona, Manhattan College, and Canisius, with your old coach, in the MAAC Tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Turning point was the team not even being up before the game, during intros they looked like zombies. Also Rob not getting the foul call on the missed dunk. He moaned about it, that play right there would have been a game changer. Guys put their heads down after that. We've done this last year and this year, we are so stable emotionally, we have very few highs and lows the team gets very complacent at times. One of the few flaws of this team. Best posts on here in a long time. Thank you. We coasted for 36 minutes and just figured that Duquesne sucks, we'll put out the win. Defense sucked. I've never seen our guys take so many possessions off on offense. We did the same thing all night on defense. Give it to the guy on the baseline. Duquense gives baseline and cuts off the middle of the court. We pick up our dribble and scramble for 10 seconds and then get a bad shot. We didn't play hard. Don't know where the senior leadership was tonight. I can handle losses. Losses at home to Duquesne are terrible. But even worse than that was the effort and execution tonight. Even down 9 with 3.5 minutes to play, I didn't get a sense of urgency from the team. I'm not saying jack up some stupid 3, but even then I don't think we played hard enough. Mason had that miracle 3. He also missed a wide open layup. I thought that would be the turning point for us. Mason was left unguarded way too often. Dumbest thing Crews has done all season was putting Barnett on Mason. McBroom better start hitting shots. When's the last game Jake hasn't shot an airball? It's maddening. Evans has been an incredible player, but he still plays so out of control sometimes. He gets extreme tunnel vision at times. So many times last night, he had an open guy for 3 when he got the ball, but his first thought was to shoot and his second was to dribble and by that point no one is open. He needs better awareness. Good game from McCall. Manning was fine. Crawford was fine. More bench minutes please. Our guys are wearing down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 "Can't we just have a "laugher" for once....it has been a while." Hey Wiz looks like the joke is on you! And at home too ---- Ouch,,, will somebody please take that cane out of my eye! Also from the Wiz "Today's Trivia question" Who would I rather get beat by, the Bonnies or Dukane? And the answer is "a cellar dweller but an average team". Yep throw out Duq, the Bonnies and Fordham but, NOT to worry I'm sure that the Billikens will be moving on to the Big East (even thou they are in the Mid-West) or the ACC I do wish the Billikens good luck at the Big Dance ! So we beat the Bonnies at their place on Jan15th...it must have been painful because you had to hold on to this post for 6 weeks....you know the one that says....Bills bad because you lost to that weaker team (fill in the blank)...Sorry you had to track us for 6 weeks waiting to use that post....but I guess when your team is in 8th place and going no where what else do you have to do. I will file your post under ...joke post...I get it ....lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Good game from McCall. Manning was fine. Crawford was fine. More bench minutes please. Our guys are wearing down. Yeah I don't think it was necessarily a bad thing to have our bench playing more last night. Everyone wants them to play more, and I agree they should have played in some of our blowout games earlier this year. I think Crews knows we are going to need these guys playing some minutes in tight games the rest of the year. I guess better late than never. They didn't lose the game for us anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hello Wiz, I do not want to quote your full post because it is so long, just an excerpt of it: "This is what is known as a double outlier game...outlier being an observation that is numerically distant from the rest of the data. In tonight's game , where we are heavy favorites, we had 2 things go way off....thus a double outlier. Both occurred in my favorite stat ...3pt shooting. Duq shot great (53.3%)...1st outlier ....we shot terrible (17.4%)...2nd outlier. Both of these numbers are off by about 50% from normal...that is a lot...that is why these are outliers. Oh well ...freak game ....time to move on.....and start a new 12 game win streak." I like this very much, it is clear and furthermore it is very much like what happened with the Oregon game last year. Yes, it does explain things adequately and outliers do occur (multiple outliers are very rare). However, I do have a question for you, how do you know if this is a clean outlier (even a double outlier) vs a basic change in the way we are playing? Are we ready to regress to the means now (a very good thing at this time) or not (a very bad thing at this time)? what do you think? As it turns out, Jordair injured himself last year during the A10 tournament games and probably was not playing at peak at the time of the Oregon game. At this time, and if I recall correctly, there was some indication that Dwayne had pulled a groin muscle during one of the last few games we played (and won) prior to yesterday. So, do you see anything in the numbers that indicates the Duquesne game loss is anything but a clean double outlier type of result or do you see something else? Is it too early to determine this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yeah I don't think it was necessarily a bad thing to have our bench playing more last night. Everyone wants them to play more, and I agree they should have played in some of our blowout games earlier this year. I think Crews knows we are going to need these guys playing some minutes in tight games the rest of the year. I guess better late than never. They didn't lose the game for us anyways. Excatly. Crawford, Manning, Lancona, etc. They could have done at least what our seniors did last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Excatly. Crawford, Manning, Lancona, etc. They could have done at least what our seniors did last night. If Lancona, Manning, and Crawford got the majority of the minutes down the stretch like you are suggesting and we lost everyone on here would be calling for Crews' head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Best posts on here in a long time. Thank you. We coasted for 36 minutes and just figured that Duquesne sucks, we'll put out the win. Defense sucked. I've never seen our guys take so many possessions off on offense. We did the same thing all night on defense. Give it to the guy on the baseline. Duquense gives baseline and cuts off the middle of the court. We pick up our dribble and scramble for 10 seconds and then get a bad shot. We didn't play hard. Don't know where the senior leadership was tonight. I can handle losses. Losses at home to Duquesne are terrible. But even worse than that was the effort and execution tonight. Even down 9 with 3.5 minutes to play, I didn't get a sense of urgency from the team. I'm not saying jack up some stupid 3, but even then I don't think we played hard enough. Mason had that miracle 3. He also missed a wide open layup. I thought that would be the turning point for us. Mason was left unguarded way too often. Dumbest thing Crews has done all season was putting Barnett on Mason. McBroom better start hitting shots. When's the last game Jake hasn't shot an airball? It's maddening. Evans has been an incredible player, but he still plays so out of control sometimes. He gets extreme tunnel vision at times. So many times last night, he had an open guy for 3 when he got the ball, but his first thought was to shoot and his second was to dribble and by that point no one is open. He needs better awareness. Good game from McCall. Manning was fine. Crawford was fine. More bench minutes please. Our guys are wearing down. That was the real turning point, IMO. We were up 7 at that point and basically imploded after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.