kshoe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If some people think we are going 16-0 with 3 road games against Dayton, VCU and UMass then all I have to say is enjoy your kool aid - not going to happen. Where did you see anyone say that? In the for what its worth camp, Pomeroy's site suggests a 0.3% chance of a 16-0 conference record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 RPI is not perfect, especially early in the year, but it is more indicative of where a team stands at this time than KenPom or Wiz. I go by results. Do you think we are 21st in the USA? If so, please explain. What top teams have we beaten? How do you justify 21? Please give details. KenPom and Wiz are predicting that we do about as well as last year... yes we have a weak schedule, the conference is weak, but we need to approximately duplicate last year's 16-2 to finish, including winning the A-10, the A-10 tourney, and winning two NCAA games... that will be tough. Is it likely? If so, we should earn 15th or so, like last year. Tell me. Explain why we are 21st to me. Really? So you think UMass is the second best team in the country right now and that Duke is only the 30th best team in the country right now? You really think those rankings are more indicative of where those teams stand than their Pomeroy ratings of 25 for UMass and 13 for Duke? Do you really think North Dakota State's RPI ranking of 24th is more indicative of the kind of team they are instead of their Pomeroy ranking of 80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iggy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 So list your top 25 teams as of NOW. Wiz, I'd sure like to see this too. What major differences from the polls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I doubt anybody that watched that game would describe it as an 8 point victory. It was a super tight game with an inflated margin of victory based on fts and fouling at the end. That's one way of looking at it--it was close up to the last three minutes or so. Conversely, though, they fell apart so badly at the end that the margin could've been double digits if we hadn't missed some free throws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Where did you see anyone say that? In the for what its worth camp, Pomeroy's site suggests a 0.3% chance of a 16-0 conference record. Old Guy - 1/2/14 at 9:53am in this same thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Old Guy - 1/2/14 at 9:53am in this same thread. He didn't say we are going 16-0 in conference. He said we'd have a 16 game winning streak if we win at Dayton. That includes the 6 game win streak we are already on plus Yale and RI, the aforementioned Dayton game, and then games against St. Bon, Fordham etc. The only games you get really nervous about in that stretch are the trip to Philly to play LaSalle and St. Joes. If you include the coin flip Dayton game, the probability of us having at least a 16 game winning streak is 6% (per KenPom). If you ignore the Dayton game, which Old Guy did in his statement, the probability increases to 13%. Personally, I don't know why Old Guy stopped at 16. The home game against VCU is a should win as are the next 3 games after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkelsey55 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If some people think we are going 16-0 with 3 road games against Dayton, VCU and UMass then all I have to say is enjoy your kool aid - not going to happen. They were saying we could win 16 in a row before week get to the VCU game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Really? So you think UMass is the second best team in the country right now and that Duke is only the 30th best team in the country right now? You really think those rankings are more indicative of where those teams stand than their Pomeroy ratings of 25 for UMass and 13 for Duke? Do you really think North Dakota State's RPI ranking of 24th is more indicative of the kind of team they are instead of their Pomeroy ranking of 80. Perhaps MB is just a contrarian who will use any resource he can to pooh-pooh a typical fan's optimism. In fact, thinking about ALL of his posts: what I just said is REALITY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Check my post I talked about a 16 win string, that goes from Rockhurst win 12/3/13 to the 2/8/14 LaSalle game and is qualified by the need to win the 1/11 Dayton game (away). I think this is entirely doable, we already have 6 of the wins needed for the string of 16 wins. I think we may have more trouble with the VCU and UMass games, but the rest are also very winnable. That is of course my opinion, not a prediction and not anything that I am 100% sure will happen. Thank you Kshoe, I think the VCU games are also winnable but they will be more difficult than the others in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 All of them are winnable. That doesn't mean we will win all of them, but this team is good enough that we shouldn't be dismissing any games as losses before we get there. Some people are acting as if going to VCU or UMass this year will be like going to Duke three years ago was, and that's just silly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 OK, but no back up. So list your top 25 teams as of NOW. We will see how they do after March Madness. You have not met condition #2....reasonable and relevant Reasonable....The word NOW causes a fail....the fact that it is capitalized makes it a double fail. Right now I am working on the A-10 pre-conference report card which I would like to get out on Sunday.;....which might not be possible if I work on your random requests. It would be different if you were actually interested in the 25 but you would like the list to create more controversy. Relevant...I usually put out a top 25 list when the Bills make it onto the list. After all this is a Billiken board. If there is enough interest maybe I will put one out early, if I have the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Wiz, I'd sure like to see this too. What major differences from the polls? As I stated above, I want to get the A-10 report card out on Sunday. Tell you what, if 2 more people request a top 25 list by Sunday, I will try to crank one out....time permitting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 OH PLEASE OH PLEASE OH PLEASE (of course one team wrong by the end of the year is vindication for imbeciles.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Check my post I talked about a 16 win string, that goes from Rockhurst win 12/3/13 to the 2/8/14 LaSalle game and is qualified by the need to win the 1/11 Dayton game (away). I think this is entirely doable, we already have 6 of the wins needed for the string of 16 wins. I think we may have more trouble with the VCU and UMass games, but the rest are also very winnable. That is of course my opinion, not a prediction and not anything that I am 100% sure will happen. Thank you Kshoe, I think the VCU games are also winnable but they will be more difficult than the others in my opinion. OK I get it - my bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Band Legend Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 You have not met condition #2....reasonable and relevant Reasonable....The word NOW causes a fail....the fact that it is capitalized makes it a double fail. Right now I am working on the A-10 pre-conference report card which I would like to get out on Sunday.;....which might not be possible if I work on your random requests. It would be different if you were actually interested in the 25 but you would like the list to create more controversy. Relevant...I usually put out a top 25 list when the Bills make it onto the list. After all this is a Billiken board. If there is enough interest maybe I will put one out early, if I have the time. I'm all in favor of creating more work for you; after all it's not like you provide any useful info for the board- like MB73! He is the unquestioned leader in invective and conspiracy theories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Really? So you think UMass is the second best team in the country right now and that Duke is only the 30th best team in the country right now? You really think those rankings are more indicative of where those teams stand than their Pomeroy ratings of 25 for UMass and 13 for Duke? Do you really think North Dakota State's RPI ranking of 24th is more indicative of the kind of team they are instead of their Pomeroy ranking of 80. The issue is, "do you think we are 21st? If so, why?" Justify (EDIT: I agree of course U Mass is not # 2 and Duke is better than 30th, you can point out these variances in many polls early in the year especially as I stated earlier) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 21st.... Ranked as high as 13 last year, lost 3 players(1 starter), 2 losses on the season to #4 and #8 teams, 8 plus 4 equals 12 times 2 is 24 minus 3 is 21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billslasttermdropout Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 21st.... Ranked as high as 13 last year, lost 3 players(1 starter), 2 losses on the season to #4 and #8 teams, 8 plus 4 equals 12 times 2 is 24 minus 3 is 21 We are a good team but haven't beaten anybody decent, say top 50. Just like last year at this time. One poster said we were as good as Colorado, for example. Well Colorado beat OK ST (top 10) and KU (top 20) and two top 30-40 type teams. We have a weak schedule and it will be difficult to justify a high ranking, if U Mass stays up there and VCU improves, those wins will help. We need to duplicate last years 16-2 end run, give or take, win 2 NCAA games, to get into top 15-20. (and losing starter KM, great ball handler, top shooter and leader, and CE who you classify as not being a starter, a big who also was a key shooter and a leader... they have not quite been replaced yet IMO though we are starting to jell) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Sounds like a copy and paste from last year except replace KM with Conklin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 The issue is, "do you think we are 21st? If so, why?" Justify (EDIT: I agree of course U Mass is not # 2 and Duke is better than 30th, you can point out these variances in many polls early in the year especially as I stated earlier) I think it is pretty damn close to right. Watch a lot a basketball and maybe Ohio St plays better D than us. We are on a completely different level defensively than just about any other team in the country. If the offense improves we can make a deep tournament run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 We are now ranked 4th in defense by Pomeroy. We're falling apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I think it is pretty damn close to right. Watch a lot a basketball and maybe Ohio St plays better D than us. We are on a completely different level defensively than just about any other team in the country. If the offense improves we can make a deal tournament run. Since the start of the thread, and with new results, etc, I would go 35 now, maybe even say 30-35. But we haven't beaten anybody in the Top 50, similar to last year around this time. Our only two losses, though are top quality, those teams are hanging tough at 4 & 6 on traditional polls, so I move us up cautiously to 35, even 30-35 but no way 21st. We need to earn it. Our schedule is weak, so we should pile up wins while others knock each other off in better conferences, and the debate begins. We have few opportunities to beat a quality club until the latter part of the league schedule, assuming VCU & U Mass hold up, then the A-10 Tourney, then the NCAA Tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deutschkind Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 We are now ranked 4th in defense by Pomeroy. We're falling apart. Unacceptable that we are giving up .1 points per 100 possessions more than Cincinnati and Arizona. I want Crews' head for being 4 points behind Ohio State Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Unacceptable that we are giving up .1 points per 100 possessions more than Cincinnati and Arizona. I want Crews' head for being 4 points behind Ohio State PEARL 2014-15!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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