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Posted

Umass and Dukes tied for 4th going into tonights games, both lose on the road. Now there is a 5 way tie for 4th. All with 4-4 records, including  Dayton.

Crazy

Posted
17 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

The conference season is basically half over.  Here is the current bracket for the A10 Tourney.   A lot will change in the second half of the season, but for now we are sitting where we need to be.  Huge, huge couple of away games for the Bills this week.  UMass is in our rear view mirror.

https://x.com/MLBergman_/status/1885827044795433072

You can’t understate the two upcoming games this week.  The results are likely to have a major impact on our ability to finish in the top four.

Posted
5 hours ago, CenHudDude said:

You can’t understate the two upcoming games this week.  The results are likely to have a major impact on our ability to finish in the top four.

I 100% agree.  We have 9 games left, 4 home and 5 on the road.  Seeing that we have only won 2 games away from Chaifetz, it is tough to imagine turning our road woes around this late in the season.  With the construction of the roster, the Bills need the double bye in the tourney. Splitting these two road games isn't ideal, but one win would still have us in a good position. 

Dayton still has two games with VCU, and those will be very important to the final seeding.

Posted
3 hours ago, cheeseman said:

We need to have GM keep winning unless we play them.  Why muddy the water for the top 4 bye spots.

I disagree.  If we aren't going to make the tournament this year, I want an A-10 regular season championship.  If GM loses and then we beat them, we pass them in the standings on the tiebreaker.

Posted
25 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

I disagree.  If we aren't going to make the tournament this year, I want an A-10 regular season championship.  If GM loses and then we beat them, we pass them in the standings on the tiebreaker.

It's easier for us to win 3 games in the A10 tournament than for us to win the next 8 straight to win the regular season title.

Posted
1 minute ago, 3star_recruit said:

It's easier for us to win 3 games in the A10 tournament than for us to win the next 8 straight to win the regular season title.

That's an interesting thought.  What do we have a better chance at, winning three straight in the A-10 tournament against the best teams in the A-10 or being regular season champs?

We're one game back of VCU and there is no head to head advantage for a tiebreaker with them.  We have to play GM at home.  I am assuming we beat them just for purposes of setting the stage for this scenario.  If we beat them, we have the tiebreaker on GM which essentially means we would be a half game back of them.

Looking at the schedules, VCU still has Dayton twice and a game against GM that one of them will have to lose.  GM's schedule seems pretty light the rest of the way.  Our schedule is pretty light other than the GM game and on the road at Dayton.

If we beat GM in our game against them, lose to Dayton and win the rest, we go 14-4 in the conference.  If we beat, GM and they also lose to VCU, then they will also go 14-4 in the conference, but we would have the tie-breaker on them.  If we beat GM and VCU also beats GM, then the question is what does VCU do in their two games with Dayton.  If they split, with Dayton and win the rest, they also go 14-4.

I would certainly rather win the A-10 tournament and go to the big dance rather than with the A-10 regular season, but if you had to ask me which is more likely, I think I would say us winning the regular season, because that only requires is to win one more game against a top A-10 team rather than 2.  Also, with our short bench, we may be at a disadvantage in a three games in three days situation.

Posted
4 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

That's an interesting thought.  What do we have a better chance at, winning three straight in the A-10 tournament against the best teams in the A-10 or being regular season champs?

We're one game back of VCU and there is no head to head advantage for a tiebreaker with them.  We have to play GM at home.  I am assuming we beat them just for purposes of setting the stage for this scenario.  If we beat them, we have the tiebreaker on GM which essentially means we would be a half game back of them.

Looking at the schedules, VCU still has Dayton twice and a game against GM that one of them will have to lose.  GM's schedule seems pretty light the rest of the way.  Our schedule is pretty light other than the GM game and on the road at Dayton.

If we beat GM in our game against them, lose to Dayton and win the rest, we go 14-4 in the conference.  If we beat, GM and they also lose to VCU, then they will also go 14-4 in the conference, but we would have the tie-breaker on them.  If we beat GM and VCU also beats GM, then the question is what does VCU do in their two games with Dayton.  If they split, with Dayton and win the rest, they also go 14-4.

I would certainly rather win the A-10 tournament and go to the big dance rather than with the A-10 regular season, but if you had to ask me which is more likely, I think I would say us winning the regular season, because that only requires is to win one more game against a top A-10 team rather than 2.  Also, with our short bench, we may be at a disadvantage in a three games in three days situation.

If VCU wins the 14-4 tiebreaker, that means we need to go 15-3 to win the conference.  Or eight straight.  We would have to go undefeated in road games the rest of the way.  We have 4 road games left.

Posted

Challenge Accepted!!!!

 

Posted

If I have got this correct NIT back to giving regular season champion bid, as long as in some top 125 rankings...

Posted
59 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

That's an interesting thought.  What do we have a better chance at, winning three straight in the A-10 tournament against the best teams in the A-10 or being regular season champs?

We're one game back of VCU and there is no head to head advantage for a tiebreaker with them.  We have to play GM at home.  I am assuming we beat them just for purposes of setting the stage for this scenario.  If we beat them, we have the tiebreaker on GM which essentially means we would be a half game back of them.

Looking at the schedules, VCU still has Dayton twice and a game against GM that one of them will have to lose.  GM's schedule seems pretty light the rest of the way.  Our schedule is pretty light other than the GM game and on the road at Dayton.

If we beat GM in our game against them, lose to Dayton and win the rest, we go 14-4 in the conference.  If we beat, GM and they also lose to VCU, then they will also go 14-4 in the conference, but we would have the tie-breaker on them.  If we beat GM and VCU also beats GM, then the question is what does VCU do in their two games with Dayton.  If they split, with Dayton and win the rest, they also go 14-4.

I would certainly rather win the A-10 tournament and go to the big dance rather than with the A-10 regular season, but if you had to ask me which is more likely, I think I would say us winning the regular season, because that only requires is to win one more game against a top A-10 team rather than 2.  Also, with our short bench, we may be at a disadvantage in a three games in three days situation.

All we have to do is finish in the top 4 to get the 3 game play spot.  GM winning out except against us would take some of the competition away for one of the 3 remaining spots as well as maybe giving them a chance to be an at large if they don't win the tourney

Posted
38 minutes ago, BLIKNS said:

If I have got this correct NIT back to giving regular season champion bid, as long as in some top 125 rankings...

If you are in a Top 12 conference as determined by KenPom (we are currently 8  ),  you get an auto bid for being the top team in  the conference.

Posted
56 minutes ago, BLIKNS said:

If I have got this correct NIT back to giving regular season champion bid, as long as in some top 125 rankings...

According to this link, the lowest ranked team in the NIT last season was Georgia at NET 100.  So maybe the top 125 was in effect.  

(This link also references yet another post season tourney, College Basketball Crown.)  Toooooo many....

http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html

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