VCU over The Bills by 6

[The Wiz]

 

General Outlook.... The magic number is 1...A win by The Bills or a loss by DQ and we have the double bye.

 Game Preview....We remain at an overall grade of B.   VCU  has a an overall grade of B+. Their home court is a tough place to play. As VCU has clinched 1st place, they have lost a little incentive in this game. ...on the other hand a loss could take them out of the running for an at large bid if they don't win the A10 tourney...currently showing 2 more conference  wins plus a 2nd place finish in the A10 tourney  gives them a 50% chance for an at large bid. ..so they do have some incentive to win this game.   

Now judging by the spread and the fact that it is an away game many fans will want to throw the towel in...A loss is not a forgone conclusion...This game is very winnable. Now before the goofballs come on here with fix the computer stuff, let's look at the facts.  We lost to VCU in the last game by 8 pts.  That game turned out to be a freak show.  It was an unremarkable game for VCU  EXCEPT for the fact that Baldwin had a career game scoring 37 pts on a slash of 80/80/80/100...not what you would call normal or repeatable. That 1 game added 1 1/2 pts to his SEASON average.  He scored an extra 26 pts that game.  If he scores anywhere near his average we win the game by 17 pts. Adjusting for home court advantage , if we play the same game and hold him to his average , we  win at VCU by 9.  Can it be done? Yes, other teams have done it. Hopefully we make the adjustment.

Report Card.... 

Coming into this game we are up in 2 categories (3P% Off  & Def Reb) down in none ...We are unchanged and still on the honor roll  on offense and the defense is clean again with no Ds or Fs.

Now let's take a look what has happened since the last time we played VCU...The Bills  are up in 3 Categories (Off FG%,3P% and Def Rebs) and down in 4 categories(Off Rebs, PPG , FT% and Def3P%)  .  VCU since the last time we played is up in 4 categories (Off FG% , Rebs and Def FG%, 3p%) and down in 2 categories (Off 3P% and FT%).  Overall we are the better team in offense ( in fact , I would say VCU is only slightly better on offense than Loy) and they are the better team on defense. (honor roll)

Here is what the current  report card looks like...

...................SLU......................VCU........................SLU.............................VCU

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B.......................C-.............................C-..................................A

FG%...............B+.....................B..............................A-..................................B+

3P%...............B-.....................C-.............................C...................................B

FT%...............B-......................D+..................................................................

Reb...............A........................D..............................C+....................................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none...Def.....3P%...PPG

Down.........Off.......none....Def....none

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......23rd  all time D1 list

Assts/TO ratio...Collins...11th...up

Reb...Okoro...50th...dn

Off Reb...Okoro...27th ...up

Blks...Okoro ...87th...dn

Dou Dou...Collins...64th...dn..

3P%...Jimerson...53rd...up

VCU

Assts...15th...Baldwin

Asst/TO ratio...Baldwin...74th

FG%...Deloach...88th

Stls....Baldwin...7th

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

2/8...Thames....Out indefinitely....undisclosed......unspecified issue with no time table to return

VCU

none

Keys to the game.. .Stop Baldwin....Make some FTs... in our  last game with VCU they had an extra 10 FTA and 10 FTM (Baldwin 9-9) and remember this is a terrible shooting FT team...VCU forces a lot of TOs but they make a lot of TOs...Again key to the game will be defense.

WWN2D2W...Stop Baldwin , Johns, and Deloach...hold them to a combined 45 pts ....Make the slash...47/35/75....   TOs match them...Beat them on the boards by 6......hold them to less than 70 pts total.

Bottom line....Play some defense and we can change Bald-win into a Bald-loss.

[Taj79]

I don't expect a win.  I do expect to get out to a lead, blow it, turn to hero ball, and lose late.  If we can turn Baldwin down some, and he hasn't had any sort of a game close to what he did against us, and we don't let Nick Kerns or Jayden Nunn go off, it can be done.  Once again, I am content to let VCU shoot and take our chances.  Don't let Shriver be the man from distance.  Anyone else would suffice.  

[wgstl]

4 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I don't expect a win.  I do expect to get out to a lead, blow it, turn to hero ball, and lose late. 

Shoot, I'd probably even take this. I don't see us being in control much outside of maybe the first couple of minutes. 

[BigMouthBilliken]

Double digit loss imminent 

[cheeseman]

Has Ford ever beaten a team this year that the Bills were not favored?

[wgstl]

3 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

Has Ford ever beaten a team this year that the Bills were not favored?

Nope. 

[brianstl]

I want to so badly get my hopes up because they did so many things the way I expected them to heading into the season.  I know it was a bad opponent, but it was the most complete game the team played in my opinion all season.  But..........

Every damn time I have gotten my hopes up this season they have been crushed.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, cheeseman said:

Has Ford ever beaten a team this year that the Bills were not favored?

I had the Bills by 1 over Prov but I was in the minority as the consensus of the oddsmakers had Prov over the Bills by 2.5 ....Bills won 76-73

[cgeldmacher]

Wiz, a post by Stu seemed to suggest that we could still end up #1.  If we beat VCU and Dayton, and VCU loses to GM, then we would be tied with VCU record wise.  We would also split the head to head with them.  The possible next team up would be Dayton and we both split with them as well.

Without getting too wordy on this post, can we still, mathmatically, win the conference title?

[wgstl]

51 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I had the Bills by 1 over Prov but I was in the minority as the consensus of the oddsmakers had Prov over the Bills by 2.5 ....Bills won 76-73

I thought I saw SLU was 2.5 favorites against Prov

[The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, wgstl said:

I thought I saw SLU was 2.5 favorites against Prov

Prov by 2.5...I remember that game because I was going against the oddsmakers by 3.5 pts and a different outcome with the  Bills winning...It is possible you saw an opening line where the Bills were favored by 1.5pts.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Sagarin has VCU by 6.19, rounded to 6 vs. SLU.

At this point, Sagarin has SLU vs. Dayton as a pick 'em, SLU by .36, less than half a point.

[Bay Area Billiken]

41 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said:

Wiz, a post by Stu seemed to suggest that we could still end up #1.  If we beat VCU and Dayton, and VCU loses to GM, then we would be tied with VCU record wise.  We would also split the head to head with them.  The possible next team up would be Dayton and we both split with them as well.

Without getting too wordy on this post, can we still, mathmatically, win the conference title?

According to that predictive website I posted in the Double Bye Clinched? thread, SLU could get the #1 Seed in the following, very unlikely scenario:

1.  SLU wins both games this week, @VCU and Dayton;  2.  LaSalle upsets @Dayton on Tuesday;  3.  Duquesne (mildly) upsets @ Fordham on Sat.;  AND 4.  VCU gets upset twice this week, at home vs. SLU Tues. and @GW on Sat.

Apparently, Jupiter and Mars need not be alignment for the above to happen.

[Crewsorlose]

SLU can win, mainly because VCU isn't very good. But that will involve playing well and playing tough against a team with much more of an identity. I hope Hughes and Parker play early and often. 

[Soderball]

5 hours ago, brianstl said:

I want to so badly get my hopes up because they did so many things the way I expected them to heading into the season.  I know it was a bad opponent, but it was the most complete game the team played in my opinion all season.  But..........

Every damn time I have gotten my hopes up this season they have been crushed.

It wasn't just a bad opponent, it was the weakest opponent other than Evansville, and had them at home. Take nothing from the last game. That team is bad. Atrociously bad. The Billikens could have had 25 TO and still beat Loyola. Bad bad bad.

If they keep it tight and play a full game vs VCU that will be noteworthy.

[Bizziken]

Have we ever won @VCU?

[Schasz]

18 minutes ago, Bizziken said:

Have we ever won @VCU?

If I was a betting man...not in Ford's tenure.

[Bizziken]

Pretty sure we're 0-7

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Bizziken said:

Have we ever won @VCU?

Less than a year ago, last Mar we beat them 69-65.  And 3 years ago, Feb 21 2020 we blew them out on a Blue Out day 80-62...in the last 3 years we are 2-2 against them.

[Schasz]

I did go back to check and I was right on since he has been at SLU Travis Ford has never won at VCU. We Did beat them the past 2 seasons at Chaifetz, but he has a losing record against them in his career at SLU. I would be surprised to see his record at VCU change tomorrow.

[HoosierPal]

Recent A10 trends from VCU

They are 6-2 in conference at home.  Yes they can be beat.  They lost to St. B by 3 and Dayton by 4.

The Rams have been going 8 deep, with double figure minutes.  Two more players get spot duty. 

In their last 4 games, the Rams have had 4 different leading scorers.

No surprise, they are 2nd in Defensive FG% at 42%, but SLU is right there with them at 3rd at 43%. 

I was surprised to see VCU at 4th in 3FG% at 36%.  They don't shoot all that many, but their success rate is decent.  The Bills are second at 38%.

I figured they would be tops in steals, but they are second to Duquesne, 8.8 to 8.7.  SLU is 10th at 5.7 spg.

Neither team has lit it up from the FT line in conference play, VCU is 10th at 70% and the Bills 8th at 71%.

We hold a 2.4 rebound advantage over the Rams. 

Neversaynever. 

[Lando Griffin]

Baldwin went off for 37 in the first matchup.  If they can lower that slightly they could eek out a win.

 

With that said I am a SLU fan and don’t expect Travis Ford’s coaching to in anyway neutralize Baldwin.  In fact I expect him to go off for 40 and SLU lose.

[HoosierPal]

36 minutes ago, Lando Griffin said:

Baldwin went off for 37 in the first matchup.  If they can lower that slightly they could eek out a win.

 

With that said I am a SLU fan and don’t expect Travis Ford’s coaching to in anyway neutralize Baldwin.  In fact I expect him to go off for 40 and SLU lose.

Hopefully someone can guard Baldwin tomorrow.  Jimerson?  But Nunn hit St Joe for 31.  So who guards Nunn?  Jimerson?  Johns netted 17 against Rhode Island.  Who guards Johns?  Jimerson?

[Bizziken]

4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Less than a year ago, last Mar we beat them 69-65.  And 3 years ago, Feb 21 2020 we blew them out on a Blue Out day 80-62...in the last 3 years we are 2-2 against them.

Thanks. But we are 0-7 at their place going back to the CBI Championship. Hard place for us to win. Majerus's teams didn't even win there. I just hope we can keep it close tomorrow.

[The Wiz]

5 minutes ago, Bizziken said:

Thanks. But we are 0-7 at their place going back to the CBI Championship. Hard place for us to win. Majerus's teams didn't even win there. I just hope we can keep it close tomorrow.

I think if we can slow down Baldwin we have a chance.