The Wiz Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Chance 2 Dance... The Bills ....59%...dn 2 pts Day.............57%....dn 1pt VCU............46%.....up 1pt No other A-10 teams were 40% or above. Now before someone tries to explain to me what I really mean or why the model that they have never seen doesn't work...Let's look at the model in real life and see what it actually is saying... First the computer picks the winner of the A-10 tourney then takes the remaining A-10 teams listed on C2D and puts them with the other at large bid prospects in D1 and then makes another probability calculation to determine the at large team bids ....The reason you can have more than 50% for more than 1 team is because of the chance of multiple bids. So as an example ...Even with the SLU loss , we are still the best team in the A10 by a small amount.... What this really means is.... The computer is projecting the most likely scenario( not the only scenario)...The Bills play Dayton in the final game of the tourney...The winner goes Dancing ...the loser and VCU go into the pool. There is then a 51% chance for one of the remaining 2 teams to get a bid. Next up is St. Joe with a weak offense and only a slightly better defense. This is a game we need and should win. St. J is fighting to get out of the PIG position. Let's look at the report card and see what we are dealing with here. ...................SLU.....................ST J.........................SLU.........................St J .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A.......................C-.............................C+............................D+ FG%...............B+.....................D+.............................B..............................C- 3P%..............A.......................C-..............................B-.............................C FT%...............A.......................F+................................................................ Reb...............A.......................B................................A-...............................C- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...3P%.....Def.....none Down....Off...FT%.....Def...3P% Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 1st... unch Stls......Collins....32nd....dn Dou-Dou....Collins...56th...dn FG%....Okoro....47th...unch Off Reb...Okoro...95th...dn FTA/FGA....Linssen...28th...dn St. J FG%...Obinna...46th FT%.....Reynolds...65th Assts...Hall ...7th Dou Dou....Hall & Obinna...56th Injury/ Illness Klaczek...G...2/10/22...Face...Will be out for 4 weeks due to a facial injury Keys to the game....They have 7 who play....but the 2 subs don't do much but eat minutes. When starters come out, it is time to increase our lead. While all starters can score , this is basically a 2 man team...Hall leads the team in PPG, Assts and Steals while Obinna leads in FG%, Rebs and Blks... Reynolds is their FT shooter....Control these 3 and you control the game. WWN2D2W....Make the slash...47 / 37 / 77...TOs 11...if you pressure SJ you can get them up to 15 TO...Hold Hall, Obinna and Reynolds to 29 pts. We need to out rebound them by 5. Make the 2s @ 50% Bottom line...St J is a C+ team. Forget about their record . If we stumble , they are just good enough to beat us. If we play to win, we will. Let's stop the flapping and start clapping for a win. Bay Area Billiken and CBFan like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The CBFan emotional non scientific fan predictor for the dance is 0 after the Davidson game. I watched it to the bitter end and was disappointed that the Billikens got blown out from the start and quit around the 4 minute mark in the second half. I will feel much better getting in to Chaifetz on Tuesday cheering the team off the court after they win. Thank you for your scientific analysis of the numbers your posts are must read. I appreciate your contributions to the board. The Wiz and Bay Area Billiken like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glazedandconfused Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Wiz, gonna have to go ahead and say I called it on the last thread: Your “Chance 2 Dance” isn’t actually Chance 2 Dance…It’s “Chance 2 Dance if SLU and Dayton make A10 final” Please just update it to say so - you’re misleading some. And people said 60% wasn’t a crazy number haha. Obviously the model is a little pointless if it’s making that many assumptions, but it’s your model so do whatever you want with it. Just glad you clarified it’s not ACTUAL chance 2 dance. It’s what our chance 2 dance will be IF we make the A10 final. BilliesBy40 likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brighton Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Really surprised your arm isn’t sore after all that back patting (Not you, Wiz). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The chances are never "0" until we are defeated in the A10 tournament. Remember, the fat lady has yet to sing. Prediction of outcomes is based upon models, each one of which is different, and each one of which may fail predicting any specific game outcome. Subjective prediction based upon sentiment is not prediction, it is sentiment. We are all feeling down and humiliated at this time. Something valuable that we really wanted has been taken from us. As I said: sh_t happens. The only valid thing to do now is to move the focus onto the next game. A search for scapegoats is never a valid way to spend time, it is just a way to focus anger onto something or somebody. In doing so you feel you have righted a wrong. It is far easier to feel let down by/ angry/mad/upset at someone than to feel let down by/angry/mad/upset at your fate/destiny, or to rally against God. What happens if God gets mad at you and sends down a bolt of lightning? as the Norsemen believed; or if you reincarnate as a cockroach in your next life, as the Buddhists believe. In a more standard/Christian way of looking at the divine, you may just go to hell if you direct your anger towards God frequently. It is much easier to focus on someone and feel superior, at least for a short time, to the scapegoat chosen. So, what have you gained by venting your anger on someone, nothing. The game was lost and we have not improved our chances a single bit by venting anger. Something I learned when I was a teenager: If your family has nothing and your mother (who cannot cook) burns dinner, you just eat the awful burnt dinner you have been served, and then tell your crying mother it was OK, and how much you love her and appreciate what she does for you. Absolutely no one feels good about the last game's outcome, let's get over it and move forward. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 -thanks Wiz, hopefully tomorrow will be a better watch for Bills fans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 St. Joe's is a four out team. Taylor Funk at the 4, Cam Brown at the three, Eric Reynolds at the 2 and Jordan Hall at the 1 will all defer to jack one up as opposed to taking it inside. Ejike Obinna is a limited 5 who has no offensive game once again outside of a layup, putback or dunk. And he is extremely foul prone. Once you get past those five, the bench is weak and used sparingly in Jack Forrest and Dahmir Bishop. Forrest and Bishop also jack threes. Charles Coleman is an aftethought buried deep on th ebench to rest Obinna in the front court. This guy's game rivals that of Boachie Yiadom at Davidson. Zero. St. Joe's best OOC wins were over a weak Georgetown team but they did thrash Temple by over 20. Their best A10 win was over Richmond by 27 at Richmond. This was early and had Lunardi putting his alma mater in his bracketology listing at the auto qualifier from the A10. Wishful thinking. Hall is overrated in my eyes as the point. He does go 6'7" and present a matchup problem but he is just as apt to go ice cold as he is red hot. That is usually dictated in the first quarter --- how he starts dictates his game. Eric Reynolds will likely make the all-newcomer team in the A10. He's a nice complimentary player but not a star. Cam Brown is a streaky gunner --- if he and Hall and Funk get hot they can win. Getting all three on the same page has been difficult. Taylor Funk is Gibson Jimerson only a few inches taller. He is a prototypical stretch four and jacks threes whenever possible. All four ---- Hall, Reynolds, Brown and Funk --- shoot the three at 32% or better with Funk taking the most and hitting at a 37.9% rate. Reynolds at the 2G is the one most likely to drive. Obinna parks it in the key and gathers what rebounds he can. There are few plays designed to go to Obinna as the main target. St. Joe's defense is relatively weak. As a five man team, they don't press unless need forces them to. They seem to hang their heads early and often. I can see Billy Lange getting replaced after this year. The cupboard is bare and the recruits are lackluster. CBFan likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Team rankings just published its predictions for this game. As per the Vegas line we are expected to beat St. Joseph with a 12 pt. advantage and 4 stars of confidence. Comparison of the pre game stats shows SLU is ahead in all the offensive stats, and in 5 out of 7 defensive stats. TR's prediction and stats is in line with the Wiz's estimates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lando Griffin Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 14 hours ago, glazedandconfused said: Wiz, gonna have to go ahead and say I called it on the last thread: Your “Chance 2 Dance” isn’t actually Chance 2 Dance…It’s “Chance 2 Dance if SLU and Dayton make A10 final” Please just update it to say so - you’re misleading some. And people said 60% wasn’t a crazy number haha. Obviously the model is a little pointless if it’s making that many assumptions, but it’s your model so do whatever you want with it. Just glad you clarified it’s not ACTUAL chance 2 dance. It’s what our chance 2 dance will be IF we make the A10 final. +1 glazedandconfused likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Surprised Lasalle was only a 10 point game, and the joeys are 14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 33 minutes ago, wgstl said: Surprised Lasalle was only a 10 point game, and the joeys are 14. Things change..LaS has gotten worse plus we whupped them...If we played them tonight instead of St J...we are favored by 18. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Random factoid.... There is a 22% chance that The Bills beat St J by 22 or more on 2-22-22 willie, johnbj14, billiken_roy and 4 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Sagarin and Haslametrics both have SLU by 12. Haslametrics has the score (rounded off) as SLU 77 St. Joe's 65. CBSSports and ESPN both have SLU by 11, with CBSSports putting the Over/Under at 141.5. I'll take any of the above, winner and point spread, right now. SLU needs this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matty Light Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Bad beat at the buzzer, Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 The Wiz had the nail right on the head, SLU by 14, until St. Joe’s banked in that 3 at the final buzzer. The Wiz likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 A very nice win...as BAB pointed out above a technical hit on the 14 pt spread ... barring a meaningless 3 pt shot made at the buzzer by St. J. It is not that the spread was messed up but the NET efficiency is lessened ...margin of victory is important especially for teams that might be looking for an at large bid. Still a helpful win. Let's see what happened....Bolded statements from original post. Make the 2s @ 50%...Remember in the Dav thread when we shot 3-17 on layups and dunks for 17.6% and I said we needed to make 10 more of those shots (13-17 ...76%) for the win and the spread...and some posters said that was unrealistic to make 10 more shots plus the % was too high. Well I am not going to prove those posters wrong...The Billikens proved them wrong tonight in the 2nd half of the game shooting 17-21 (81%) from 2pt range including 11-11 (100% with layups and dunks). I knew they could do it. So the easy shots cost us the Dav game and the easy shots won us this game. Make the slash...47 / 37 / 77...this is good to go ...actual 53/36.4/ 63...2 pts short on FTs but we made up for it with 3 extra 2s TOs 11.... an outstanding 7 TOs ...low for the year We need to out rebound them by 5 ...we were +3...close enough Hold Hall, Obinna and Reynolds to 29 pts...This was a miss ...I got the right 3 guys as these were their top 3 scorers...they got 43 pts...BUT it didn't matter because they were canceled by a dismal slash... St J slash...41.9/ 28.6 (8-28) /12.5 (1-8) Good Bills slash plus bad SJ slash =Good Bills offense and defense Bottom line...Taking care of business means another win. MattyMo213, RiseOfTheBillikens, Bay Area Billiken and 2 others like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 A win is a win with whatever flaws it comes our way. This was a decent win against StJ. The next three promise to be harder to win games. However, our aim at this time should be to win the A10 tournament. We are still in play to achieve that goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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