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The Bills over Minn by 1


The Wiz
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A nice win over NC St....This will look good on our resume.  Btw, the extra 8 pts on our spread not only helped our numbers but should help us with pollsters and post season committee reviewers.  Our 11 pt spread says this was a definitive win. If you want to see the how and why of the NC St game win,  check out the post game analysis on the NC St spread thread.

But, there is no rest for the weary,  as we face another tough test in Minn. This will be our most difficult game of the year even though this is not the best team we will face or have faced.  Minn is a B+ team.  We are an A team (currently trending at A+) . 

There are 3 reasons this will be a big challenge....#1...Road games are always hard to win in college basketball ..2...1st road game...same as #1 reason  but more so ...many visiting teams miss the spread and wind up with closer games on the first trip away....3  Minn plays better than most at home...Their home grade is an A-...Finally everything is harder in 2020 and basketball is no different. All the above factors will be exacerbated by our current environment. It is always hard to play road games ...this year more so.

So let's see what we are dealing with here....

 

.............................SLU..........................Minn........................................................SLU.....................................Minn

.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................A.............................B+................................................................B+.....................................D+

FG%.........................A+ 14th ITN............D-...............................................................B-......................................C

3Pt%........................A+ 6th ITN.............F+.................................................................C......................................C-

FT%.........................B+.... ......................C+........................................................................................................

Reb.........................B-............................B...................................................................A+ 12th ITN......................D-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Offense...Reb...by a lot ......Defense ...3P%...a nice jump too

Down...Defense....PPG

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Collins....14th....dn

Rebs...Goodwin....12th....up.......French.....96th...new

PPG.....Perkins......64th.....up

Stls......Goodwin.....62nd....up...Collins...89th...dn

3P%...Hargrove...23rd....up....Jacobs...23rd... up.....Perkins....75th...up

Blks...French....43rd...dn

Double Double...Goodwin...3rd

Minn

PPG.......Carr....14th

Assts....Carr......40th

Blks ....Robbins....41st

Injury report....No injuries for either team

A few quirky things about Minn...Robbins their 7 footer is a tall wiry guy who is a shot blocker...not a Bates beast type player...nothing unusual here except, he is a 3 pt shooter too....Need to watch out for that.  Another quirk is their guards are great FT shooters (in the 80s) again not unusual ...but the rest of the team can't shoot from the charity stripe.  ...Also the report card doesn't seem too daunting...but looks can be deceiving.....

Let's see what we need 2 do...

WWN2D2W....Minn has 14 players...Lots of depth... right?...They have a great starting 5 (better than the report card)  ...after that things fall off rapidly. One of the keys to the game will be to wear down that starting 5 or get them into foul trouble. If we do that, we could not only win but open the game up....Stop Carr ...he is their main man....hold him to 17pts....Their other scorers are Gach, Robbins and Kalscheur...hold this trio to 27 pts....Dominate the boards ...again...They get their share of Rebs but rebounding is not their thing.  ...win the Reb war by at least 7. ...Bring the TOs down ...to 11

Bottom line....This road trip will be different then in previous years.  Being an experienced team will help but still, it is an unknown.   Playing a good team will make it an extra test. We are the better team but there is no room for error. If we make mistakes, this can slip away. Focus and win.

The Bills will just have to Go-pher this win.

Road to the Poll....2 down... 1 to go

 

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Thanks Wiz. Great stuff. Realizing the sample sizes are still small and the number of games played are all over the place, Haslam has us as the #2 offense/defense (efficiency) and team ITN and a #2 seed in their bracketology. They also have us beating every team in the country on a neutral floor except Gonzaga. Heady stuff for sure. 
 

Just saw this in other thread. My bad. 

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

 

A nice win over NC St....This will look good on our resume.  Btw, the extra 8 pts on our spread not only helped our numbers but should help us with pollsters and post season committee reviewers.  Our 11 pt spread says this was a definitive win. If you want to see the how and why of the NC St game win,  check out the post game analysis on the NC St spread thread.

But, there is no rest for the weary,  as we face another tough test in Minn. This will be our most difficult game of the year even though this is not the best team we will face or have faced.  Minn is a B+ team.  We are an A team (currently trending at A+) . 

There are 3 reasons this will be a big challenge....#1...Road games are always hard to win in college basketball ..2...1st road game...same as #1 reason  but more so ...many visiting teams miss the spread and wind up with closer games on the first trip away....3  Minn plays better than most at home...Their home grade is an A-...Finally everything is harder in 2020 and basketball is no different. All the above factors will be exacerbated by our current environment. It is always hard to play road games ...this year more so.

So let's see what we are dealing with here....

 

.............................SLU..........................Minn........................................................SLU.....................................Minn

.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................A.............................B+................................................................B+.....................................D+

FG%.........................A+ 14th ITN............D-...............................................................B-......................................C

3Pt%........................A+ 6th ITN.............F+.................................................................C......................................C-

FT%.........................B+.... ......................C+........................................................................................................

Reb.........................B-............................B...................................................................A+ 12th ITN......................D-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP....Offense...Reb...by a lot ......Defense ...3P%...a nice jump too

Down...Defense....PPG

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Collins....14th....dn

Rebs...Goodwin....12th....up.......French.....96th...new

PPG.....Perkins......64th.....up

Stls......Goodwin.....62nd....up...Collins...89th...dn

3P%...Hargrove...23rd....up....Jacobs...23rd... up.....Perkins....75th...up

Blks...French....43rd...dn

Double Double...Goodwin...3rd

Minn

PPG.......Carr....14th

Assts....Carr......40th

Blks ....Robbins....41st

Injury report....No injuries for either team

A few quirky things about Minn...Robbins their 7 footer is a tall wiry guy who is a shot blocker...not a Bates beast type player...nothing unusual here except, he is a 3 pt shooter too....Need to watch out for that.  Another quirk is their guards are great FT shooters (in the 80s) again not unusual ...but the rest of the team can't shoot from the charity stripe.  ...Also the report card doesn't seem too daunting...but looks can be deceiving.....

Let's see what we need 2 do...

WWN2D2W....Minn has 14 players...Lots of depth... right?...They have a great starting 5 (better than the report card)  ...after that things fall off rapidly. One of the keys to the game will be to wear down that starting 5 or get them into foul trouble. If we do that, we could not only win but open the game up....Stop Carr ...he is their main man....hold him to 17pts....Their other scorers are Gach, Robbins and Kalscheur...hold this trio to 27 pts....Dominate the boards ...again...They get their share of Rebs but rebounding is not their thing.  ...win the Reb war by at least 7. ...Bring the TOs down ...to 11

Bottom line....This road trip will be different then in previous years.  Being an experienced team will help but still, it is an unknown.   Playing a good team will make it an extra test. We are the better team but there is no room for error. If we make mistakes, this can slip away. Focus and win.

The Bills will just have to Go-pher this win.

Road to the Poll....2 down... 1 to go

 

"Stop Carr ...he is their main man....hold him to 17pts"

 

I do not like the sound of that..

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18 minutes ago, Old guy said:

I think the game with Minnesota should be less difficult to win than the LSU or the NC St. games.

It's a road game against Big Ten bodies. They have a legit 7ft Junior, 6'9 R. Sr. and a 6'10 and 6'9 sophomore. We struggled against one player that big. Linssen and Bell are going to have to bring even more quality minutes.

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21 minutes ago, jweste216 said:

Why is that?

Prior to each game TeamRankings provides the average stats for each team. There are 8 offensive categories and 7 defensive categories. They also provide the Vegas spread. I am not going to give the actual stats given just to say how many of these were better for each team, plus the Vegas spread prior to  the game.

LSU game. Spread 2.0 for SLU. Offensive stats LSU 5, SLU 3. Defensive stats LSU 2, SLU 5. We won by 4 pts. (1.5 over spread).

NC St. game. Spread 4.5 for SLU. Offensive stats NC St. 1, SLU 7. Defensive stats NC St. 3, SLU 3. We won by 11 pts (6.5 over spread).

Minn game. Spread not available yet. Offensive stats Minn 3, SLU 5. Defensive stats Minn 1, SLU 6.

I think the comparison of stats is stronger in favor of SLU before the Minn game when compared to the other games. I would not doubt that the vegas spread will be higher than the Wiz's once it becomes available at TR.

Agree stats are not everything or even the most important thing in a game. Take last night's game, we did not play well the first half, the second half we played like we wer a different team.

I  think we will beat Minn, but we will not know until it is over.

 

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6 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Prior to each game TeamRankings provides the average stats for each team. There are 8 offensive categories and 7 defensive categories. They also provide the Vegas spread. I am not going to give the actual stats given just to say how many of these were better for each team, plus the Vegas spread prior to  the game.

LSU game. Spread 2.0 for SLU. Offensive stats LSU 5, SLU 3. Defensive stats LSU 2, SLU 5. We won by 4 pts. (1.5 over spread).

NC St. game. Spread 4.5 for SLU. Offensive stats NC St. 1, SLU 7. Defensive stats NC St. 3, SLU 3. We won by 11 pts (6.5 over spread).

Minn game. Spread not available yet. Offensive stats Minn 3, SLU 5. Defensive stats Minn 1, SLU 6.

I think the comparison of stats is stronger in favor of SLU before the Minn game when compared to the other games. I would not doubt that the vegas spread will be higher than the Wiz's once it becomes available at TR.

Agree stats are not everything or even the most important thing in a game. Take last night's game, we did not play well the first half, the second half we played like we wer a different team.

I  think we will beat Minn, but we will not know until it is over.

 

I agree. I think if we play our game for 40 minutes, we beat Minnesota fairly handily. That being said, I don’t we’ve played a complete game yet this year. I realize this is nitpicking, but I don’t think we’ve played a game yet where we played a full 40 minutes to our capabilities on BOTH the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. Obviously a lot of that can be contributed to only being 6 games into the season. The fact that we haven’t quite put it all together yet should be very scary for other teams.

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We're gonna need Fred to take a few shifts on Carr, just slow him down, beat him up. Linnsen will also be important again - give us some decent minutes against Robbins. Even though he didn't do anything spectacular last night, he did some little things that were really valuable. He got Bates to pick up two fouls and he had a great block out on Bates late in the game, when we were trying to preserve and stretch the lead.

 

Playing on the road is a concern and that's a strange building. Hopefully the 1st half last night will be a wake up call that we need to come out with intensity and purpose right from the start against a quality team. On the flip side, MN got a bit of their own wake up call after getting blown out in their previous game. I saw MN a couple times early in the year and they can be tough.

 

Not to get too far ahead, but if we win on Sunday, I think there is a good chance to then win our next 9 games before facing Richmond on the road in late January.

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38 minutes ago, ACE said:

 

Not to get too far ahead, but if we win on Sunday, I think there is a good chance to then win our next 9 games before facing Richmond on the road in late January.

I was kind of thinking the same thing....but on a little bigger scale.

If we can win this Minn game....We could run the entire table...with the VCU game being our biggest challenge in the A-10.

But we are getting ahead of ourselves a little bit....The Bills will have a big enough set of data after the KC game next week...I will fill the other teams data holes with some predictive data.  Fordham hasn't played a game yet....but it doesn't look like they will be a major force. In fact, one could argue that it would help our SOS if they were to cancel on us. 

But back on point...think BIG....run the table...but first we have to win on Sunday.

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3 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

Kill all the golfers? If I do that, they’re gonna lock me up and throw away the key.

Mine: ”License to kill Gophers”

Classic!

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The TeamRankings prediction about this game keeps on going lower for SLU. We started at a spread of 4.5, as of now the Vegas spread is 2.6. We also started at a 2 star confidence level for winning this game and have been downgraded to a single star. Since I do not know how their prediction engine works, I cannot comment about this downward drift in the SLU expected results for this game. I am just confirming that there is a downward drift towards SLU in their prediction page for this game.

Let's look at it from a different angle, if they lower the spread, when we actually win this game we will beat the spread in a more convincing manner. I still think we are going to win this one.

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14 minutes ago, Old guy said:

The TeamRankings prediction about this game keeps on going lower for SLU. We started at a spread of 4.5, as of now the Vegas spread is 2.6. We also started at a 2 star confidence level for winning this game and have been downgraded to a single star. Since I do not know how their prediction engine works, I cannot comment about this downward drift in the SLU expected results for this game. I am just confirming that there is a downward drift towards SLU in their prediction page for this game.

Let's look at it from a different angle, if they lower the spread, when we actually win this game we will beat the spread in a more convincing manner. I still think we are going to win this one.

I don’t subscribe to TeamRankings, but they still give us a 65% chance to win tomorrow. But you’re right, Bovada has us -2.5. I think I’d probably be willing to give the 2.5 and take the Billikens.

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