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SLU & NCAA Corona Virus Discussion

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46 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Exactly.  The press has never created the hysterical panic like they have the last two months

Sigh. Ok. This is the media’s fault. You’re right. Never thought I’d get to the point where I’d have to block you, but here we are. Hope you and yours stay safe. 

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Nice moving target, Dennis. Somehow, I misspelled Ellwood. You do realize this plays perfectly in buttressing my point about media panics, does it not?

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3 minutes ago, Sheltiedave said:

Nice moving target, Dennis. Somehow, I misspelled Ellwood.

submarine attack

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And the Aleutian Island attacks were part and parcel of the Battle of Midway. One task force with the two aged carriers went north, while the main Japanese task force with the four modern carriers went to hit Midway, in an attempt to draw the three American frontline carriers from Pearl, while also capturing the three runways at Midway.

Not known to the Japanese admiral, all three American carriers lurked to the east of the Japanese carrier group, with Nimitz commanding, and they turned the battle, incredibly sinking or rendering inoperative all four Japanese flattops. We had naval superiority in the Pacific for the rest of the war.

Google can get you some of the info. Having the connecting info can also be useful in understanding context. The Japanese wanted to capture Dutch Harbor, and they failed miserably. Occupation of Attu and the other island were face saving gestures of minor consequence, to be cleaned up when the Army had time.

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there was some very bloody battles in the aleutians. my uncle was there/ the war there was real.

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Dennis, I agree totally with you. Over half the Japanese force was killed in combat, and they knew there was zero chance they could win the battle with no reinforcements. I heard stories at the VFW that it was as bad as Korea. Please give your uncle kudos from me.

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1 hour ago, willie said:

Good one. Iban Browning .

good job wouldn't remember that name, couldn't remember what it was based on just that it was baseless.

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Shoot, anytime a roving reporter stands on an overpass with a film crew, there is a sudden run on milk, flour, and street salt at Schnucks. It’s like Chuck Berry is ringing a Pavlovian Bell.

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Let's go into something a little bit less drastic than the economy. Let's talk about that epidemiological analysis published at the UK from somebody at the Imperial College of Medicine, that predicted 500,000 deaths in the  UK and 2.2M deaths in the US. The model used has been found to be full of erroneous assumptions, as a result they published a follow up report correcting the number of deaths in the UK to 20,000. Nothing was said about a corrected number of deaths for the US but it can be assumed that the number for the US went down as well.

Influenza kills a lot of people every  year, we have vaccinations for it which some people do not use (and are not flail safe either). It is not that people disregard the  number of deaths coming from Influenza, the issue that matters is that people are habituated to  having thousands die every year from this. Just like they are habituated from people dying in car accidents, you will continue using your car regardless. The issue I see is different about Covid-19 is that it is new, no one has any experience with it and this is very scary.

Now, what I am going to say next is not scientific, I think it is common sense. Both the problem with the economy and the problem with the virus are like having two malignant genii coming out of their bottles. It is a lot easier to get them out of the bottle than to put either or both of them back inside the bottle again. Just keep that in mind. There can be all kinds of twists and turns before either or both of these things get back to normal again. It may take longer than anticipated.

Workers can be furloughed or laid off, and businesses may temporarily close, but reopening the businesses and regaining the same amount of activity they had before hand is likely to take some time. I hope and pray for the best and the speediest resolution of both of these issues, but hope is one thing, reality is another thing. Of course your opinion is as good as mine in terms of what I say in the last 2 paragraphs.

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Let's go into something a little bit less drastic than the economy. Let's talk about that epidemiological analysis published at the UK from somebody at the Imperial College of Medicine, that predicted 500,000 deaths in the  UK and 2.2M deaths in the US. The model used has been found to be full of erroneous assumptions, as a result they published a follow up report correcting the number of deaths in the UK to 20,000. Nothing was said about a corrected number of deaths for the US but it can be assumed that the number for the US went down as well.

Influenza kills a lot of people every  year, we have vaccinations for it which some people do not use (and are not flail safe either). It is not that people disregard the  number of deaths coming from Influenza, the issue that matters is that people are habituated to  having thousands die every year from this. Just like they are habituated from people dying in car accidents, you will continue using your car regardless. The issue I see is different about Covid-19 is that it is new, no one has any experience with it and this is very scary.

Just worth noting that the medical infrastructure of the country is set up to deal with the flu. It appears that is not the case with Covid-19. This isn’t an opinion or based on a model. This is an observable and measurable event that has already occurred and is more than people just fearing the unknown. It is hard to habituate that if you are sick from this virus or injured or otherwise require medical attention that you will not be able to get medical help if the hospitals are over their capacities. I do hope you are right that we will only see about 25,000 more deaths in the US. 
 

I just worry that people are taking extreme positions that this is as mild as the flu (in death count) or it will kill millions domestically. It is a major event and it will be tough to find the best way to restart the economy based on the argument that this is just an ordinary flu cycle. We need a better treatment plan before we can treat this like we treat the flu. 

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deal with it?  we have over 35,000 deaths in america every year rom the flu.  that is dealing with it?

again, i am not denying there is a chinese flu virus that is causing problems.   i just want to know why the hysteria and panic for this virus when we have had and do have very serious problems with other viruses every year and nothing like this current panic has ever occurred before.   

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48 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

deal with it?  we have over 35,000 deaths in america every year from the flu.  that is dealing with it?

again, i am not denying there is a chinese flu virus that is causing problems.   i just want to know why the hysteria and panic for this virus when we have had and do have very serious problems with other viruses every year and nothing like this current panic has ever occurred before.   

Covid-19 is not a flu, it is a coronavirus.  I have attached a measured article that explains the similarities and differences between influenza and Covid-19.  It answers your above questions and thoroughly explains why Covid-19 is different.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

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13 minutes ago, Billfan7 said:

Covid-19 is not a flu, it is a coronavirus.  I have attached a measured article that explains the similarities and differences between influenza and Covid-19.  It answers your above questions and thoroughly explains why Covid-19 is different.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

So you are saying even though far more Americans  die each year from the flu there is no reason to create the same hysterical panic that we are currently going through with this chinese flu virus.  Ok.

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

So you are saying even though far more Americans  die each year from the flu there is no reason to create the same hysterical panic that we are currently going through with this chinese flu virus.  Ok.

I didn't say anything in my post that you quoted other than to suggest you read the article about the similarities and differences between covid-19 and flu - which you asked about.  Did you read the article?  

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10 minutes ago, Billfan7 said:

I didn't say anything in my post that you quoted other than to suggest you read the article about the similarities and differences between covid-19 and flu - which you asked about.  Did you read the article?  

I dont care about simularities.   I am asking why when the flu kills tens of thousands of people every year there is never a media created hysterical panic like this.   Why the panic that is ruining America when we have many health issues that kill more every yeat than the Chinese flu virus?

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Roy, who is panicking?

All I see are hardware stores and grocery stores that are jam packed. Everything else feels like it is 1970. Kids playing in their yards, parents and older folks going on walks, and plenty of people on staycations.

You want panic, watch Florida and the Gulf Coast evacuate just before a major hurricane hits.

Watch people in California who stayed too late as the foothill fires start line jumping.

These are panics.

What we have here is a controlled frenzy, and you don’t like the media holding our elected leaders’ toes to the burgeoning fire.

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9 hours ago, Old guy said:

Let's go into something a little bit less drastic than the economy. Let's talk about that epidemiological analysis published at the UK from somebody at the Imperial College of Medicine, that predicted 500,000 deaths in the  UK and 2.2M deaths in the US. The model used has been found to be full of erroneous assumptions, as a result they published a follow up report correcting the number of deaths in the UK to 20,000. Nothing was said about a corrected number of deaths for the US but it can be assumed that the number for the US went down as well.

Influenza kills a lot of people every  year, we have vaccinations for it which some people do not use (and are not flail safe either). It is not that people disregard the  number of deaths coming from Influenza, the issue that matters is that people are habituated to  having thousands die every year from this. Just like they are habituated from people dying in car accidents, you will continue using your car regardless. The issue I see is different about Covid-19 is that it is new, no one has any experience with it and this is very scary.

Now, what I am going to say next is not scientific, I think it is common sense. Both the problem with the economy and the problem with the virus are like having two malignant genii coming out of their bottles. It is a lot easier to get them out of the bottle than to put either or both of them back inside the bottle again. Just keep that in mind. There can be all kinds of twists and turns before either or both of these things get back to normal again. It may take longer than anticipated.

Workers can be furloughed or laid off, and businesses may temporarily close, but reopening the businesses and regaining the same amount of activity they had before hand is likely to take some time. I hope and pray for the best and the speediest resolution of both of these issues, but hope is one thing, reality is another thing. Of course your opinion is as good as mine in terms of what I say in the last 2 paragraphs.

This is not true. Source? Neil Ferguson himself of Imperial College, and the model you referenced helps explain some people's misinterpretations below. (by the way even in the incorrect reduced numbers, that's still twice the number of annual England flu deaths, let alone even the exponentially more predicted.

 

 

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49 minutes ago, RiseAndGrind said:

I'm going to talk Billikens basketball with Roy and the impact of the Corona Virus with my economist friends and doctors. 

Roy might make fun of you for hanging out with the liberal elites.

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1 hour ago, Sheltiedave said:

Roy, who is panicking?

 

You are nuts.   we have shut down america and are knocking on the door of a major economic depression.  that is panic.   the media is now being destroyed every night by president trump.   i love that the tables are turned on the fake news msm.  finally america that only watches fake news is seeing for themselves how dishonest and one sided the media has become.  

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1 hour ago, courtside said:

This is not true. Source? Neil Ferguson himself of Imperial College, and the model you referenced helps explain some people's misinterpretations below. (by the way even in the incorrect reduced numbers, that's still twice the number of annual England flu deaths, let alone even the exponentially more predicted.

 

 

Believe what you want. When it is all said and done let's count the dead bodies and see what is fact and what is not.

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3 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Believe what you want. When it is all said and done let's count the dead bodies and see what is fact and what is not.

Huh? 

You referenced the Imperial College Model and made conclusions from which the author of it disagrees. I merely posted what he said. You may want to take it up with him.

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