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The Wiz

The Bills over LaS by 9

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Another "almost" win at Day...to see how we "almost" won check out the post game post on the Dayton spread thread...

For those still holding out hope for an at- large bid ...there is still a chance...a small chance.  I have said a few times on the board over the last few months,  it will take 25 wins to have a chance at an at-large....we will need to win the remaining 7 games and then get 2 A-10 tourney wins....Let's just finish 4th and get the 3rd A-10 Brooklyn win for the conf championship auto bid.

For now,  it is time to concentrate on LaS.  A not very good team that we should beat...The Bills are currently rated B and are trending at C+....we need a win to hold on to the B.... To B or not to B ...that is the question....Meanwhile. LaS checks in as a C rated team trending at D+...This game,  though,  is not a gimme....They are just good enough that if we have a bad game . they can come up and bite us (see Jan 29}.  Their strong suit is 3 pt Def. On offense they have a few that can score but there is no dominant player.

Let's  see  what the report card looks like....

..............................SLU...........................LaS...............................................................SLU................................LaS

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C...............................D...................................................................B......................................C-

FG%.........................C..............................D-............................................................... ..B+....................................C+

3Pt%........................C..............................C+..................................................................C-.....................................B+

FT%.........................F-....WITN.................F+... .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................A................................C+................................................................C.......................................D+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....10th  ITN....Down

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse.......UP ....FG%...3P%...3P% Def...... DOWN.......none

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...37th.....down

Assts...Y Collins....43rd.....unchanged

Rebs...French...12th....Goodwin..20th......down   and down

Off Reb....French ...15th...Goodwin...40th...down  and up

Def reb...Goodwin ...29th...French...32th....down & unchanged

Blks.....French....16th...down

Dbl-Dbl...French & Goodwin....both 28th with 10 apiece

FG%...Croswell.....59th

Injury report...

Thatch....1/8/20...Out indefinitely...No change

Diagne...F...2/8/20...Lower body...OI...unknown when he will be back in the lineup

Jack Clark (The Ripper)...G  (or 1B)...11/14/19...OFTS...knee injury

Report card notes...while we are still in last place from the FT line ,  we are closing the gap ...if we can get over 60% we have a chance to catch Ark- Pine Bluff.

WWN2D2W....I am hoping we can keep up the good 3 pt shooting we have had recently (mid 40%)...We need to shoot at least...44/33/61...A key to this game will be the TO differential...LaS is susceptible to losing the ball...I am projecting a TO differential of 3...if we can widen that gap by bothering them , we could turn it into a blowout...Beatem on the boards by 4...Spencer is their 3 pt guy...hold him to one 3PM...Croswell is their %age shooter.  ...NO player on LaS gets double digits ...Hold the Explorers  to 60 pts for the game.

Bottom line...In the last game, LaS forced  us into OT...that should have never happened....Deas (20 Pts )...Croswell  (24pts) ..even with OT way too many pts...Time for a win...time to play  with  some fire....If we focus and play Bills ball ..it will be time to send out a search party for the Explorers.

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-Let's have some fun tomorrow afternoon

-last season after our 'bye week' we lost two in a row @SVU and @VCU, 2018 we went on the road to Rich and won, so first time these players are home after the 'bye'

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La Salle just got ripped at home by Richmond.  The longer they hang around, the more dangerous they become.  Need this one, can't take a night off from here on out.

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Time for some breathers against the bottom feeders! 

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18 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

La Salle just got ripped at home by Richmond.  The longer they hang around, the more dangerous they become.  Need this one, can't take a night off from here on out.

And Richmond only shot 21% from 3. 

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2 hours ago, wgstl said:

And Richmond only shot 21% from 3. 

That 21% worked for Rich because they completely shut down LaS...LaS slash was 30/ 31/29/ 67 ...That slash is so dismal that I would have to create a new category to grade them ( F - - ).  And  17 TOs is almost always a sure loser.  The main thing here is that we have a better defense than Rich....so we should be able to shut them down likewise.  As I said in the opening post, the 1st game should not have been OT and this one shouldn't be close either. 

No playing to the competition...play at an A level

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1 hour ago, almaman said:

4#s in slash line?

FG%/ 2P% / 3P% / FT%

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I do... But I occasionally show 4 when I think it is relevant.... In this case it showed how really poor LaS shot from inside the arc.  Many times I will use it for players as it provides a more accurate picture of what they do.... A center who rarely shoots from 3 or a guard who is a heavy  3 pt shooter... When I do break it into 4 for a player.... I might indicate under 3 pt shooting  for a forward... NA or sss (small sample size).... I personally like the 4 slash but since it is rarely reported that way, I don't always have to  break it down and calculate it. 

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A good win for The Bills...

Here is the quote from my above post...No playing to the competition...play at an A level

The above quote  was correct on both sides....We played at an A level in the 1st half ...and to the competition in the 2nd half. While we missed on a few things in the WWN2D2W category...we won and exceeded the spread because we did some things exceedingly well.

Let's examine the 1st half ...this is where most of the game was played... We did play at an A level and it showed with a 21 pt lead at the half. ...probably one of our best halves of the season..The game was over at half time...

End of the 1st half...SLU....53/ 62/36/78....A+/ A+ / A- /A+

.................................LaS.....31/29/33/100...F / F-  / C / A+

And there you have the game....Billiken D shut them down.....on a side note......Croswell (59th ITN in FG %) who scored 24 pts last game against us, was held to 2 pts.  Great job

The other stat which was a game winner was Rebs...we grabbed 40...nothing unusual there...we average about 40/gm....BUT we held them to 25...15 reb diff...I was projecting a spread of 4 rebs...far exceeded spread and a major diff maker...again kudos to the D

In addition ...things that didn't show up on the  stat sheet... excellent passing and good ball movement and some outstanding plays by a number of players. Another thing that doesn't show on the score sheet was toughness. They tried to play bully ball and the Bills held their ground without playing street ball...The Bills had 10 more FTA  than LaS...which led to 6 more FTM....or the exact amount of  extra points on top of the spread.

A couple of negatives ...one understandable and one correctable....We got a big lead(1st half) and then played to the competition (2nd half) ...or may be just tried to run out the clock....It is hard to play with the same intensity with a big lead...but can you imagine what the score would have been if we had played the 2nd like the 1st.  The correctable item was  the TOs...we not only lost the TO battle by 2 but gave up 15 total  ...fortunately it didn't matter but 15 is never good. Part of that may again have been some carelessness as a result of having a big lead.

Overall a good effort,  especially the 1st half.  That half shows us the potential of this team. Even the 2nd half when  LaS tried to bend us , we didn't break....toughness...this team is growing.

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There is a lot of potential all right, the important thing for me is that they are playing better, at least for long stretches of time, as we saw today. This is very good.

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17 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A good win for The Bills...

Here is the quote from my above post...No playing to the competition...play at an A level

The above quote  was correct on both sides....We played at an A level in the 1st half ...and to the competition in the 2nd half. While we missed on a few things in the WWN2D2W category...we won and exceeded the spread because we did some things exceedingly well.

Let's examine the 1st half ...this is where most of the game was played... We did play at an A level and it showed with a 21 pt lead at the half. ...probably one of our best halves of the season..The game was over at half time...

End of the 1st half...SLU....53/ 62/36/78....A+/ A+ / A- /A+

.................................LaS.....31/29/33/100...F / F-  / C / A+

And there you have the game....Billiken D shut them down.....on a side note......Croswell (59th ITN in FG %) who scored 24 pts last game against us, was held to 2 pts.  Great job

The other stat which was a game winner was Rebs...we grabbed 40...nothing unusual there...we average about 40/gm....BUT we held them to 25...15 reb diff...I was projecting a spread of 4 rebs...far exceeded spread and a major diff maker...again kudos to the D

In addition ...things that didn't show up on the  stat sheet... excellent passing and good ball movement and some outstanding plays by a number of players. Another thing that doesn't show on the score sheet was toughness. They tried to play bully ball and the Bills held their ground without playing street ball...The Bills had 10 more FTA  than LaS...which led to 6 more FTM....or the exact amount of  extra points on top of the spread.

A couple of negatives ...one understandable and one correctable....We got a big lead(1st half) and then played to the competition (2nd half) ...or may be just tried to run out the clock....It is hard to play with the same intensity with a big lead...but can you imagine what the score would have been if we had played the 2nd like the 1st.  The correctable item was  the TOs...we not only lost the TO battle by 2 but gave up 15 total  ...fortunately it didn't matter but 15 is never good. Part of that may again have been some carelessness as a result of having a big lead.

Overall a good effort,  especially the 1st half.  That half shows us the potential of this team. Even the 2nd half when  LaS tried to bend us , we didn't break....toughness...this team is growing.

Hey Wiz, just curious for your opinion, and I know it's not really quantifiable with numbers, but how much of us slowing down in the 2nd half do you think can be attributed to the complete lack of flow, due to all the calls. We were best in the 1st half when we were pushing the pace. It's hard to accomplish that when refs call 36 fouls in the 2nd half. Just curious what your thoughts on that are.

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1 hour ago, Reinert310 said:

Hey Wiz, just curious for your opinion, and I know it's not really quantifiable with numbers, but how much of us slowing down in the 2nd half do you think can be attributed to the complete lack of flow, due to all the calls. We were best in the 1st half when we were pushing the pace. It's hard to accomplish that when refs call 36 fouls in the 2nd half. Just curious what your thoughts on that are.

I think the pace of play...the Bills playing at a slower pace plus the constant stoppage of play for fouls affected our scoring.  Here is how I would quantify it... .We scored 45 pts  in the 1st half...7 of those pts were from FTs....pts from actual play = 38pts.    In the 2nd half we scored 39 pts...17 from FTs. = 22pts from "clock ticking" basketball ...So we scored 73% more pts  in the fast paced half vs the slow paced one....If you subtract out the   the 10 extra FTs we made as a result of the interrupted play...16 - 10....it is still a difference of 6 pts...or 27% increase.

While not a perfect correlation...play did slow down( we slowed play and  the refs slowed play) and it did cost us some points....but not enough to make a difference....It just made it more painful to watch.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I think the pace of play...the Bills playing at a slower pace plus the constant stoppage of play for fouls affected our scoring.  Here is how I would quantify it... .We scored 45 pts  in the 1st half...7 of those pts were from FTs....pts from actual play = 38pts.    In the 2nd half we scored 39 pts...17 from FTs. = 22pts from "clock ticking" basketball ...So we scored 73% more pts  in the fast paced half vs the slow paced one....If you subtract out the   the 10 extra FTs we made as a result of the interrupted play...16 - 10....it is still a difference of 6 pts...or 27% increase.

While not a perfect correlation...play did slow down( we slowed play and  the refs slowed play) and it did cost us some points....but not enough to make a difference....It just made it more painful to watch.

 

 

I would good post you, Wiz, but I'm out of reactions. Thanks.

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I think the second half was orchestrated by Ashley Howard.  Think about it.... down by 21.  What's his halftime adjustment?  I think he said 'go out, play rough, put it in the refs hands, make SLU shoot free throws, and extend the game.'  Every one of their guys, with the exception of Stone (6 minutes) and Deas (12 minutes) had at least three fouls.  Thirty total.  

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30 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I think the second half was orchestrated by Ashley Howard.  Think about it.... down by 21.  What's his halftime adjustment?  I think he said 'go out, play rough, put it in the refs hands, make SLU shoot free throws, and extend the game.'  Every one of their guys, with the exception of Stone (6 minutes) and Deas (12 minutes) had at least three fouls.  Thirty total.  

I agree. You are getting your arse handed to you. “Let’s go out and muck it up . They can’t shoot free throws so don’t worry about fouls”

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15 hours ago, Taj79 said:

I think the second half was orchestrated by Ashley Howard.  Think about it.... down by 21.  What's his halftime adjustment?  I think he said 'go out, play rough, put it in the refs hands, make SLU shoot free throws, and extend the game.'  Every one of their guys, with the exception of Stone (6 minutes) and Deas (12 minutes) had at least three fouls.  Thirty total.  

I agree with this analysis.  The refs helped out by calling touch fouls against both teams / calling fouls on plays where the "fouls" resulted in no clear advantage for either team and calling SLU very tight so that the overall foul disparity wasn't too much.

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