Preseason 2019-20 record prediction

[moytoy12]

1 minute ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Hmm.  I think if the Bills were to finish the 2019-20 regular season 25-6, they'd be in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large with room to spare.

Completely agree

[Old guy]

I made my prediction of 25-6 October 20, check it if you wish. Despite the loss of Jimerson and the possible loss of Thatch for the rest of the season, I will stick to that prediction. If things keep developing the way  they are we may go to the Dance this year.

[slu72]

If we don't get in at 25-6 someone should be investigated. The trick is going 25-6. I think our poor FT shooting is going to make that really hard. Has and JGood will be hacked in the final minutes of close games and it will cost us. 

[billikenbill]

1 hour ago, CBFan said:

Dayton lost in overtime against a good Colorado team so Dayton stays solid and should be ranked the rest of the seasons.

I like VCU and Rhode Island they should will be quality wins however I agree the at large bid is getting tougher, Tulane, BC, and Belmont all lost.

FWIW, BC got a neutral site win over Cal 64-60.

[CBFan]

40 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

FWIW, BC got a neutral site win over Cal 64-60.

I missed that thank you, BC was down in the second half and I had the game on but I was trying to finish up putting in my new floors and assumed they lost, thank you for the correction.

[CBFan]

1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Hmm.  I think if the Bills were to finish the 2019-20 regular season 25-6, they'd be in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large with room to spare.

Remember Missouri State was robbed from a at large birth several years ago under Henson.

In the NCAA I do not trust.

[Quality Is Job 1]

4 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Remember, Missouri State was robbed of an at-large berth several years ago under Hinson.

In the NCAA I do not trust.

But there's a difference between the Missouri Valley (that year) and the A-10 (this year).

Mark my words, should the Bills finish 25-6 (meaning 14-4 in conference [assuming a win over Bethune-Cookman], which should be good for top 3), they'll be in with a decent seed; they won't be on any bubble.

[wgstl]

25-6 seems.... super optimistic. I think we stay around 6 losses in conference 

[billikenbill]

15 minutes ago, wgstl said:

25-6 seems.... super optimistic. I think we stay around 6 losses in conference 

I agree, especially without Jimmmerson. If we take care of business against B-C and get 12 A-10 wins, 23-8 going into the A-10 tourney is pretty solid. Get to the A-10 championship game with 25 wins, how does that not get an at-large?

[Quality Is Job 1]

25 minutes ago, wgstl said:

25-6 seems.... super optimistic. I think we stay around 6 losses in conference 

Oh, I definitely agree; I was speaking hypothetically.

[HoosierPal]

3 hours ago, slu72 said:

If we don't get in at 25-6 someone should be investigated. 

If Richmond or Duquesne or Mason finish 25-6, are they in?

[slu72]

42 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

If Richmond or Duquesne or Mason finish 25-6, are they in?

Richmond might have a case, but the other 2 had pretty low SOS's as I understand it.,

[moytoy12]

1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

If Richmond or Duquesne or Mason finish 25-6, are they in?

Yes. 

[bauman]

Just a minor - I hope  - point.  When the Selection Committee is looking at our pre-A10 tournament record they would see 24-6 not 25-6.  Remember, the Maryville game is not counted by them.

I think this is a tough time to be predicting our A10 record, not being certain how the team will respond to the Jimerson and Thatch losses against league teams.  The KSU win has us all pumped, but realistically I think we need to see a few conference games, maybe 3 or 4, to get a better handle on how we will do the rest of the year.  The conf. opener against Duquesne, who will likely be undefeated when we play them in Pittsburgh, could tell us a lot.  I think, and hope, we can get it done against them.  I'm not sure if it's a good thing or not, but we do play 4 of our hardest conf games in our first 6.  (@ Duq.; @ Richmd;  UD and @ Davidson).  Get thru those 4,  at 2-2 and I'll be happy.

As I said in my earlier post, I see 4 likely conf. losses---2 to UD, and @ Richmond and @ URI .  The next toughest are @ Davidson and VCU at home.  Split with the last two and throw in a clunker loss to an underdog and that would give us 12-6 in A10 play; 24-8 (excluding Maryville) overall,  heading into the conf tourney as a top 4 seed, hopefully.  With regard to the NCAA's alot would depend on how we do in the A10 tourn. .  Lose the first game and we would be 24-9 with KSU as our best win  -  I don't think that would get us in.  Win the first game and lose the 2nd for a 25-9 record-- maybe on the bubble.  Win 2 and lose the final and we are 26-9 and become a solid "maybe."  (As Old Guy would say, we could get in or maybe not) 

Of course, this is all speculation not knowing about injuries to us or other teams, but isn't speculation what MBM do?

Correction, I just saw that Duq lost yesterday.

Edited December 22, 2019 by bauman
To correct reference to Duq as unbeaten

[Old guy]

The selection committee will do whatever it is that pleases them, within a broad band of confusing requirements. Can we end the conference season at 25-6? I think so. However that is not the end of the show. If we end the conference play with a 25-6 record we will play the A10 tournament and get a decent seed. I do not think that anyone in this blog will believe we can end at 25-6 and be eliminated in the first tournament game we enter. The chances are that we will have a number of additional wins by the time the A10 tournament is over or we are eliminated. Just do the math, if we end the year (ooc and conference games) at 25-6 the likelihood of going to the Dance is pretty good.                                                                                                                                                                                                       

[Quality Is Job 1]

(My weekly attempt to bring Old guy up to speed on terminology!)

(Again,) an internet message board is not a blog, just like ballhandlers in basketball do not "carry the ball" (again).

Please understand that I'm not writing this out of spite; I just want to help you with the lingo.  Surely it's more possible to teach Old guy new lingo than it is to teach an old dog new tricks?  After all, you did master blue font and have gotten a better understanding of Twitter.

"Blog" is short for "web log."  A blog is a public journal in which a person makes entries or posts for people to read.  Interaction in a blog is much less than in an internet forum.

[billikenbill]

3 hours ago, bauman said:

Just a minor - I hope  - point.  When the Selection Committee is looking at our pre-A10 tournament record they would see 24-6 not 25-6.  Remember, the Maryville game is not counted by them.

 

Good point, forgot about that.

[billikenbill]

29 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

(My weekly attempt to bring Old guy up to speed on terminology!)

(Again,) an internet message board is not a blog, just like ballhandlers in basketball do not "carry the ball" (again).

Please understand that I'm not writing this out of spite; I just want to help you with the lingo.  Surely it's more possible to teach Old guy new lingo than it is to teach an old dog new tricks?  After all, you did master blue font and have gotten a better understanding of Twitter.

"Blog" is short for "web log."  A blog is a public journal in which a person makes entries or posts for people to read.  Interaction is a blog is much less than in an internet forum.

This reminds me of the time when I was at a college basketball game as a kid and a man behind us, who was pulling for the same team we were, kept yelling "tackle him" when our guys were on defense. I found it very puzzling.

[CBFan]

On ‎12‎/‎22‎/‎2019 at 11:42 AM, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Oh, I definitely agree; I was speaking hypothetically.

10 non conference D1 wins if they beat B-Cook seemed optimistic in November to some.

14-4 if there are no more injuries and Thatch comes back which I believe he will return.

Dayton can be beat at Chaifetz, Jimmy Bell is good enough to defend Toppin or at least slow him down, and our team has many more weapons that can score.

Can our team score enough from 3 point range with the loss of Jimerson to open up the floor will also be key.

I do not think a team lead by French and Goodwin with coach Ford that plays their best in February finishing 14-4 in the A10 is super optimistic, I am drinking the blue koolaide by the gallons.

 

 

[billiken_roy]

9 minutes ago, CBFan said:

10 non conference D1 wins if they beat B-Cook seemed optimistic in November to some.

14-4 if there are no more injuries and Thatch comes back which I believe he will return.

Dayton can be beat at Chaifetz, Jimmy Bell is good enough to defend Toppin or at least slow him down, and our team has many more weapons that can score.

Can our team score enough from 3 point range with the loss of Jimerson to open up the floor will also be key.

I do not think a team lead by French and Goodwin with coach Ford that plays their best in February finishing 14-4 in the A10 is super optimistic, I am drinking the blue koolaide by the gallons.

 

 

french is likely the only billiken to truly defend toppin.   in all likelihood, toppin will have to stop himself and i can see that happening regardless of all his talent and nba potential.   

dayton truly has a very good team.   and they deserve all the praise they are currently getting.

our advantage is that grant has proven since arriving in dayton, he isnt a good floor coach.  imo they are succeeding because the dayton roster is very talented.

however,  we have a roster that gets tougher and better all the time so i am not ready to concede to dayton or anyone else in the A10 yet.  

the billikens have already exceeded my expectations for the year as we havent seen that normal non conference stinker (or two) that typically stains our record.   i am not ready to proclaim this is a post season billiken team (still fear the inexperience particularly on the inside) but there is a lot of pure billiken talent that can take us places.  and while the jimmerson loss appears to be huge, cant deny we are all excited about hargrove coming around and the continued growth of collins, jacobs, perkins, weaver and bell.   add a return by thatch and by the end of january we will surely know where this is going.  i'd say right now the arrow is indeed pointing up.

 

 

[glazedandconfused]

20 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Dayton can be beat at Chaifetz, Jimmy Bell is good enough to defend Toppin or at least slow him down, and our team has many more weapons that can score

 

 

I love JBJ, but OBI would go for an efficient 40 matched up against him. Just nowhere near the foot speed needed. That’s not anything against JBJ, but OBI is an NBA ready lottery pick.

[Old guy]

On 12/22/2019 at 5:44 PM, Quality Is Job 1 said:

(My weekly attempt to bring Old guy up to speed on terminology!)

(Again,) an internet message board is not a blog, just like ballhandlers in basketball do not "carry the ball" (again).

Please understand that I'm not writing this out of spite; I just want to help you with the lingo.  Surely it's more possible to teach Old guy new lingo than it is to teach an old dog new tricks?  After all, you did master blue font and have gotten a better understanding of Twitter.

"Blog" is short for "web log."  A blog is a public journal in which a person makes entries or posts for people to read.  Interaction in a blog is much less than in an internet forum.

I apreciate your efforts, it is a message board that is correct. Can it be abbreviated as MB?

[Old guy]

40 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

french is likely the only billiken to truly defend toppin.   in all likelihood, toppin will have to stop himself and i can see that happening regardless of all his talent and nba potential.   

dayton truly has a very good team.   and they deserve all the praise they are currently getting.

our advantage is that grant has proven since arriving in dayton, he isnt a good floor coach.  imo they are succeeding because the dayton roster is very talented.

however,  we have a roster that gets tougher and better all the time so i am not ready to concede to dayton or anyone else in the A10 yet.  

the billikens have already exceeded my expectations for the year as we havent seen that normal non conference stinker (or two) that typically stains our record.   i am not ready to proclaim this is a post season billiken team (still fear the inexperience particularly on the inside) but there is a lot of pure billiken talent that can take us places.  and while the jimmerson loss appears to be huge, cant deny we are all excited about hargrove coming around and the continued growth of collins, jacobs, perkins, weaver and bell.   add a return by thatch and by the end of january we will surely know where this is going.  i'd say right now the arrow is indeed pointing up.

The way I see it is that barring injuries and unpredictable events our team is likely to continue playing together better and better game after game. This being the case, we have 1 chance of beating VCU in conference so it will be 50-50. We have two chances of beating Dayton in conference play, it will be tough but we might win one of the two games.  Of course there may be additional chances to go against VCU, Dayton, or both during the A10 tournament. We will see what happens.

[Compton]

On 12/22/2019 at 10:17 AM, Old guy said:

Despite... the possible loss of Thatch for the rest of the season

Huh? Where's that coming from? 

[billikenfan05]

19 minutes ago, Compton said:

Huh? Where's that coming from? 

We’re halfway through the season and they still haven’t diagnosed why he’s having the issues he’s having, he still needs to get back in game shape once they get it corrected. I don’t see how he’s back any time soon