The Wiz Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Whoa...this isn't going to be pretty. ....I think this is the largest Billiken spread I have predicted How did this happen.? Well first off ...we have fallen to cupcake status ....F+ .. I will get into the specifics next Wed when report cards come out as to what it takes to be an F+ team but for now let's just say we are one of the worst shooting teams in the nation (bottom 10%) But what about the extra wide spread on this game? The result of playing our toughest game of the entire season...Wich St ( A+ ) ....Top 10 team on my rankings...A Dancing team. But how much better could they be than KSU?...In many ways they are similar...Think of them as KSU on steroids. Great shooting...great D ...lots of depth.. The differences between KSU and WSU is ....Wich St has better D from the 3...more depth...KSU had 5 that could takeover a game....WSU has 10...which means when they put the 2nd team in there will be no let up. They have 6 regulars ( 13+ min/gm) who shoot over 50% overall and over 40% from 3 (including 2 who shoot over 50% from the arc) ....some staggering numbers...And finally the Shockers are better from the FT line than KSU. Bottom line.... We need to try and shoot normal Bills numbers...41/31/64 and take care of the ball ...TOs 12...to try and keep it respectable. .If we come up with a bad game ...sub 20% from 3 and 20+ TOs this game could go from ugly to a Shocker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 -ouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 let's go for nil 351/351/351 hard to believe we could be achieving moral victory if we only lose by 20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnkielBreakers Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I suggest taking this bet. The difference will be well over 40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Double ouch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just forfeit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Really hoping for like a 15 point line to bet the title to my car on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 This is the first time I'm not sure whether to take our opponent based on the Wiz's spread. BYU and K-State in the teens were easy money. But it wouldn't be unreasonable for us to lose this one by, say, 29 points. (I'm not actually betting on these games.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 5, 2016 Author Share Posted December 5, 2016 Usually there is a betting opportunity when I differ with Vegas by 3+ pts...in this case 29 or less or 35 or more. These can be some of the hardest games to win from a betting perspective because there are other factors involved. On the computer side, there is the "give up" side at 20 + points...."Give up" meaning that both sides are not going all out anymore because the game is over. Points scored after a 20 pt margin are valued less in figuring calculations going forward. On the human side, it is usually up to the winning coach to decide when to take the foot off the gas pedal. As we saw in the KSU game, Weber could have run the score up to 40 but put the scrubs in which held down the margin. That;s what makes this game harder to bet on ...the wider spread. As I pointed out in the original post , this is one of the widest spreads in Bills history. If you wanted to create the widest spread possible....say Fla A&M vs Nova...you could run up a 40 point difference. 40 is usually the ceiling not only this year but most years. The point is ...if WSU gets the lead and does what KSU did (win by 31) ...it may make it more difficult to beat the spread than a single digit spread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 so u b sayin' there can't be a spread more than 40? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 11 hours ago, The Wiz said: Usually there is a betting opportunity when I differ with Vegas by 3+ pts...in this case 29 or less or 35 or more. These can be some of the hardest games to win from a betting perspective because there are other factors involved. On the computer side, there is the "give up" side at 20 + points...."Give up" meaning that both sides are not going all out anymore because the game is over. Points scored after a 20 pt margin are valued less in figuring calculations going forward. On the human side, it is usually up to the winning coach to decide when to take the foot off the gas pedal. As we saw in the KSU game, Weber could have run the score up to 40 but put the scrubs in which held down the margin. That;s what makes this game harder to bet on ...the wider spread. As I pointed out in the original post , this is one of the widest spreads in Bills history. If you wanted to create the widest spread possible....say Fla A&M vs Nova...you could run up a 40 point difference. 40 is usually the ceiling not only this year but most years. The point is ...if WSU gets the lead and does what KSU did (win by 31) ...it may make it more difficult to beat the spread than a single digit spread. The first 12-15 minutes of the K-State game were actually sort of close. Didn't we cut it to 5 after 10 minutes? I fear we have not seen what a true turd by this team against a good opponent looks like yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 hours ago, almaman said: so u b sayin' there can't be a spread more than 40? There can be a larger spread. A couple of years ago when Ky had their super dominant season ( 1 loss)...the spread widen to about 50 over a very weak Grambling team. Other years when a number of teams are vying for a top spot (no one dominating) and the bottom feeders are a little stronger, I have seen it narrow to 38. But generally, , year in year out the first to worst is about 40 on average. Right now, the largest spread is 40...NC vs Coppin St. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 As per team rankings the Vegas implied scores for this game are SLU 55, WSt. 88. The spread is 33. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 SLU +27 in my book Best bet might be WSU -14 first half line, but I'm not feeling like a super degenerate (yet) this AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I think we cover the spread unless we keep it close at half time like we did against BYU and then they come out in the 2nd half and drop 55 points on us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 47 minutes ago, majerus mojo said: SLU +27 in my book Best bet might be WSU -14 first half line, but I'm not feeling like a super degenerate (yet) this AM That's what I see from the sports books too. A 5 point spread differential (32 vs 27) is usually a winning combination. I think the key is the "give up" factor I mentioned in the above post. When do both teams let up? It adds one more variable to the mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Or you can bet 10 dollars for SLU to win and that would pay 700. ? Zeke and Johnson shoot 80% from 3 in the upset. Anyone? No? Didn't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 This is just another game in which the result isn't a big deal to me. Just hope the young guys get better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I need a bookie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 45 minutes ago, slufan13 said: I need a bookie What's your call on this game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 hours ago, billikenfan05 said: What's your call on this game? Bills cover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 hour ago, slufan13 said: Bills cover -I don't know who WSU has played, but this from Go Bills doesn't make covering seem likely.... The Shockers are among the top teams offensively and defensively in the country. They are 44th nationally in scoring offense averaging 83.1 ppg. They give up 59.6 ppg, which is 14th in the nation. Wichita State has a scoring margin of +23.6, which is fourth nationally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 They play Oklahoma Saturday and Oklahoma St after that. I just think Marshall pulls back the troops a bit with finals approaching and two resume-builder games up next. It's probably better for us if we go down big early and then just trade buckets in the 2nd half rather than hang within 10 and have Wichita St keep the foot on the gas all game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Bills by 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 We lost If you need more analysis ...see the original post in this thread. Better times in 5 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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