JC Hot Seat

[kshoe]

FWIW, I (and the large majority of others I've spoken to) would rank the teams

1. 2011-12

2. 2012-13

3. 2013-14

Despite the overall records telling a different story. I could see an argument for 2012-13 being better than 11-12.

Anyway, that is off-topic.

I think I learned to restrain information a bit as the remark about how Crews handled players' roles last year caused a stir and attacking of posters.

That being said, I think a realistic goal for this coming season is 15 wins. Anything more and I would consider it a major success. I don't love predictions, especially this early, but I would throw out 13-17 as my guess for regular season.

It has indeed become popular in the last year for people to say that the 2011-12 was the best of the bunch but there is no objective measure by which that is actually true.

The NCAA tourney selection committee in general does a pretty good job of measuring these things so when people say a 9 seed from 2011-12 that didn't win the conference regular season or post-season tourney was better than a 4 seed that won both (in the best A-10 year, perhaps ever) it makes me want to laugh.

[waldo027]

If we're 13-17 this season then we should have a head coaching vacancy. That's a 2 game improvement.

[3star_recruit]

The "Big East" the season Berry played at Butler was NOT the Big East of old... in fact, no better than the A-10. IMO, it wouldn't have been difficult for a quality freshman to get off the bench for a team with a 150 rpi.

Yet, with no significant additions to the froncourt, Butler made it to the tournament last year. Butler's frontcourt talent in 2013-14 wasn't the problem. Defense was the problem. A skinny freshman post player wasn't going to fix that.

[TheChosenOne]

It has indeed become popular in the last year for people to say that the 2011-12 was the best of the bunch but there is no objective measure by which that is actually true.

The NCAA tourney selection committee in general does a pretty good job of measuring these things so when people say a 9 seed from 2011-12 that didn't win the conference regular season or post-season tourney was better than a 4 seed that won both (in the best A-10 year, perhaps ever) it makes me want to laugh.

Do a lot of people have this discussion? Or you could look at the statistical ratings, here is one real quick:

Pomeroy:

2012 - overall #17, defense #11, offense #39

2013 - overall #16, defense #6, offense #75

2014 - overall #35, defense #7, offense #181

I thought 2012 and 2013 were fairly comparable teams, but I doubt anyone would argue too strongly that one was significantly better than the other. The numbers would support 2012 being a more balanced team than 2013. Regardless, the 2013-14 squad is not in that conversation.

[BillikensBlog]

It has indeed become popular in the last year for people to say that the 2011-12 was the best of the bunch but there is no objective measure by which that is actually true.

The NCAA tourney selection committee in general does a pretty good job of measuring these things so when people say a 9 seed from 2011-12 that didn't win the conference regular season or post-season tourney was better than a 4 seed that won both (in the best A-10 year, perhaps ever) it makes me want to laugh.

Again FWIW, kenpom ranked the 2011-12 team 17th and the 2012-13 team 16th but had the 2011-12 team with a higher rating.

Sagarin had the 11-12 team ranked 16th and the 12-13 team ranked 20th and also considered the 11-12 team superior.

So I disagree that there is no objective measure by which that is actually true.

[BillikensBlog]

Some notes on next season (since negative opinions/facts aren't welcome). Some negative notes aren't welcome either (see post about Crews and player roles).....

- I'd expect to play at a much quicker pace this year. Shorter shot clock will be part of that but rumor has it we will run a lot more, trap, shoot more 3's, and isolate our guards in the post (Crawford, Roby, Ash)

- The staff apparently feels confident heading into the season. They didn't (and still don't) see the point guard position as a problem.

- I am still hearing Ash was in the doghouse in the Bahamas. The staff expects him (as a 5th year senior) to not make the same mistakes in practice and in games. The older guys will be on a short leash all year.

- As far as a player rotation or size of the rotation, I have no idea. I would think the goal is to have some type of 9 man rotation by A10 play but I could see that rotation changing from game to game outside of the top 5 or 6 guys.

- Hines most plays like the kind of PG Crews wants. If Crews is adamant about specific roles again this coming season, Hines could play a lot. I do think the Bahamas was kind of his audition, along with Reynolds.

- Bartley's injury could be one of those things that flares up throughout the season. He may be best suited playing off the ball anyway.

That's all for now. Nothing earth-shattering or even surprising in there. Hoping to speak to the junior class soon.

[kshoe]

Again FWIW, kenpom ranked the 2011-12 team 17th and the 2012-13 team 16th but had the 2011-12 team with a higher rating.

Sagarin had the 11-12 team ranked 16th and the 12-13 team ranked 20th and also considered the 11-12 team superior.

So I disagree that there is no objective measure by which that is actually true.

KenPom and Sagarin both provided season-long rankings that were influenced by Kwamain missing the first 1/3 of the season and being rusty the first couple games he was back. The season turned when he got into the full groove of things and Evans went into beast mode. Quite frankly, we likely don't lose the Santa Clara and Washington games if KM is healthy and then this comparison isn't even close.

[slufanskip]

Some notes on next season (since negative opinions/facts aren't welcome). Some negative notes aren't welcome either (see post about Crews and player roles).....

- I'd expect to play at a much quicker pace this year. Shorter shot clock will be part of that but rumor has it we will run a lot more, trap, shoot more 3's, and isolate our guards in the post (Crawford, Roby, Ash)

- The staff apparently feels confident heading into the season. They didn't (and still don't) see the point guard position as a problem.

- I am still hearing Ash was in the doghouse in the Bahamas. The staff expects him (as a 5th year senior) to not make the same mistakes in practice and in games. The older guys will be on a short leash all year.

- As far as a player rotation or size of the rotation, I have no idea. I would think the goal is to have some type of 9 man rotation by A10 play but I could see that rotation changing from game to game outside of the top 5 or 6 guys.

- Hines most plays like the kind of PG Crews wants. If Crews is adamant about specific roles again this coming season, Hines could play a lot. I do think the Bahamas was kind of his audition, along with Reynolds.

- Bartley's injury could be one of those things that flares up throughout the season. He may be best suited playing off the ball anyway.

That's all for now. Nothing earth-shattering or even surprising in there. Hoping to speak to the junior class soon.

Skin a little thin? Regarding the player roles ... was no one expected to question the validity of someone saying Crews would not let someone who's job was to handle the ball take an open drive to the basket?

If Hines plays a lot ... I will be in the group severely questioning JC's ability to judge talent, recruit, and coach. Or maybe Hines is just a stud and no one else noticed?

[slufanskip]

Not that it proves any point but a few years ago I did a round by round tourney bracket based 100% on Kenpom and it was horrible, by far my worst ever

[cheeseman]

You're right, we have no real, direct power. JMM and you both make this point and are correct. The same way the rose-tinted glasses set can't use the power of The Secret to wish this team into winning, the negative nellies can't make personnel decisions.

However, to use a phrase from the OP, "hot seats" are created by fans who are tired of what's happening. I have said that I don't think Crews should've been fired after this past season (although a five-year contract was a mistake, but that's a different issue). But there have been troubling trends going back to the 2013-2014 season and this upcoming season should be a make-or-break one for him. SLU fans are historically pretty low-key and complacent. I'd want to see the heat get turned up on Crews if this season goes how I think it will. If enough of us express discontent, that won't go unnoticed.

There are posters (and plenty of people who don't read this board) who have not renewed their season tickets because of last season's unwatchability and this staff's unexciting recruiting. If enough people are doing that, that's a huge message. Voting with your wallet. So, yeah, some people are taking action.

To say fans have no power is not completely true for those two factors. If enough of us get tired of things, they'll know. If we have another atrocity of a season, what will all the blindly positive people here say? If the Big East expands without us, will we just shrug because we feel powerless?

If fans just keep lying there and taking it, it leads to things like multi-billion-dollar sports franchises to get taxpayer-funded stadiums without those taxpayers being allowed to vote on whether they want to pay for that or not, just to use one totally off-the-wall example.

Actually the voters did get to vote on it - they voted on it when the original money was approved for the Dome. The problem was the wording of the ballot issue then, it did not say it was a one time only approval.

[TheChosenOne]

- The staff apparently feels confident heading into the season. They didn't (and still don't) see the point guard position as a problem

I remember having a conversation with Danny Brown about a year ago at some sort of Billiken night at Busch Stadium and he was rather excited about the depth of talent on the roster. Obviously we know how that turned out. I honestly am not as certain we will fail as most are, but it will be an interesting season nonetheless.

[JMM28]

If Hines plays more than 200 minutes all year, I'm guessing most will be off the Crews bandwagon.

[majerus mojo]

Never thought I'd see the day when people say a Billikens team that finished the season ranked 25th, at one point was ranked in the top 10, won the conference regular season, got a 5 seed to the dance and lost in the round of 32 to the defending national champs was a year that we "under performed and had significant holes"

That team bombed down the stretch. Amazing run for sure, but losing at home to Duquense when we were still top 20. Then lost in first round of A10 tournament, and needed a comical display of FT shooting from NCST in Round 1 to avoid that upset. Jett was a superhero time and time again. Great season, but a brutal end of April/March.

Then again, we had Louisville knotted at 32(?) shortly after halftime... The Field House was a f'ing zoo. What I wouldn't give for a 3-point shooter to show up during the dance.

[Clock_Tower]

No, I'm not. My comments are reasonable. I even used (undeniable, very easy fo find) numbers to support my point(s) instead of just "we'll be fine!" blind optimism. Do I need to be more positive so as to not offend anyone's delicate sensibilities? I didn't think I was being very harsh in the first place. You have a seemingly low threshold for "trashing" - I'm rereading my post and don't see what I'd consider trashing. It's pretty simple. Last season was historically ugly and even if this season is marginally better, that's still ugly. Not exactly a revolutionary stance.

If you don't consider our recruiting classes to be comprised of relative unknowns, you don't follow recruiting. Not sure what else to say on that point. Maybe they'll be good, but I don't know, and skepticism by me or others is entirely justified.

Pistol.

You are not being objective or reasonable if you don't recognize the great job done by our Frosh last year and with your constant references to them while saying that our talent is shallow -- to me that appears to be trashing them -- albeit collectively. Go back and look at the "best" class of recent of college basketball (DE, JJ, MM, RL and later JB) and you will find that they struggled and had a horrible freshman year with HOF Rick Majerus as their coach after suddenly losing KM and WR (The Situation) and then with injuries to Conklin (ankles) and Ellis (shoulder surgery). The next year, of course, things turned around not only b/c of incremental change/improvements of this freshman class but also b/c KM returned to the team and bothy Conklin and Ellis returned healthy. Unfortunately, we don't have such veterans to step in this year so we will need to again rely upon last year's Frosh along with this year's Frosh and also hope that Ash, Reggie and Crawford also improve as well.

And remind me again how Neufeld is a virtual unknown having played for Canada's select team a few weeks earlier.

[TheChosenOne]

You are not being objective or reasonable if you don't recognize the great job done by our Frosh last year

I don't think everyone would agree that our freshmen did a great job last year. I think that is kind of the big disconnect on the board right now. Some people have much higher evaluations of that class than others. I personally am on the fence, but I do really question the talent level of the now sophomore class. Some have seen enough and don't think they will be any good and others have seen enough to believe that they are the second coming of the Evans/Jett/Loe/McCall class. This season will go a long way in telling us what exactly we have in this class and which camp's evaluation was right.

[TheChosenOne]

And remind me again how Neufeld is a virtual unknown having played for Canada's select team a few weeks earlier.

Did you watch Neufeld play with the Canadian national team? I did and based on what I saw I don't think I could reasonably project what kind of player he will be early in his career. I know during the tournament my evaluation was a little harsher than other's, but again everyone evaluates differently.

[JettFlight5]

Great job is a stretch when the team wins 11 games. Freshmen beat upperclassmen quite a bit, so youth isn't the fallback that it used to be.

There's some talented players here...that said, there's a real long climb back to the Top 50.

[Clock_Tower]

Did you watch Neufeld play with the Canadian national team? I did and based on what I saw I don't think I could reasonably project what kind of player he will be early in his career. I know during the tournament my evaluation was a little harsher than other's, but again everyone evaluates differently.

Whether or not Neufeld turns out to be good or not (and when) is a different issue than him being a virtual unknown. Just being on the team is proof that Pistol has lost objectivity.

[3star_recruit]

I don't think everyone would agree that our freshmen did a great job last year. I think that is kind of the big disconnect on the board right now. Some people have much higher evaluations of that class than others. I personally am on the fence, but I do really question the talent level of the now sophomore class. Some have seen enough and don't think they will be any good and others have seen enough to believe that they are the second coming of the Evans/Jett/Loe/McCall class.

I've seen enough to believe the best players in last year's class are not as good defensively and not as athletic collectively as that class. But they don't have to be the second coming of that class to be a 10-11 seed in two years and get back to The Dance. What we need is for three double digit scorers to emerge, better frontcourt play, and better defense. I have no doubt the first two will happen this year after a rotation of 9-10 is established. It's the defense that concerns me.

[Tonka]

I've seen enough to believe the best players in last year's class are not as good defensively and not as athletic collectively as that class. But they don't have to be the second coming of that class to be a 10-11 seed in two years and get back to The Dance. What we need is for three double digit scorers to emerge, better frontcourt play, and better defense. I have no doubt the first two will happen this year after a rotation of 9-10 is established. It's the defense that concerns me.

The defense concerns me as well. When you are far and away the worst defensive Billiken team in 20 years, something is drastically wrong. We are really missing something. We have good athletes on this team, so I am puzzled at why it was SO bad. It usually comes down to attitude, effort, and coaching. It is very puzzling.

[Pistol]

Pistol.

You are not being objective or reasonable if you don't recognize the great job done by our Frosh last year and with your constant references to them while saying that our talent is shallow -- to me that appears to be trashing them -- albeit collectively. Go back and look at the "best" class of recent of college basketball (DE, JJ, MM, RL and later JB) and you will find that they struggled and had a horrible freshman year with HOF Rick Majerus as their coach after suddenly losing KM and WR (The Situation) and then with injuries to Conklin (ankles) and Ellis (shoulder surgery). The next year, of course, things turned around not only b/c of incremental change/improvements of this freshman class but also b/c KM returned to the team and bothy Conklin and Ellis returned healthy. Unfortunately, we don't have such veterans to step in this year so we will need to again rely upon last year's Frosh along with this year's Frosh and also hope that Ash, Reggie and Crawford also improve as well.

And remind me again how Neufeld is a virtual unknown having played for Canada's select team a few weeks earlier.

This post is a joke, right?

[Pistol]

I mean, Clock, since you're coming from a place of "objectivity," feel free to back up your point that the freshmen did a "great job" last season. Any evidence would be appreciated - stats, video, whatever you've got. I saw them play some solid games - I remember how optimistic I was after the Indiana State game - but you're talking about the whole season, right? Did you see any games? You have access to the same stats and information I have, right?

I still stand by something I've said many times on here - that Gillmann, Bartley, Yarbrough, and Roby have the potential to form a solid core of four-year players.

But saying I lack reason and objectivity for failing to "recognize the great job done by our Frosh last year" - that's absurd. I have absolutely no idea how anyone could reach that conclusion.

[Old guy]

When the athletic department called us asking why we weren't renewing my wife told them because the team is terrible and the girl on the phone laughed and said she would note that. That wasn't the entire reason (we were only renewing if Tatum committed), but I got a kick out of that. The tickets had been in her family for 30+ years, so I am sure if more families like that don't renew or stop going the athletic department will take notice. I know the people who sit in front of us also did not renew their tickets after having them for years. I am more on the fence than most on this board, but if things go poorly this season I think a move has to be made.

Now, let's analyze this a bit further if you please. A real fan sticks with his/her team through thick and thin. Can you consider yourself a good fan of the Bills?

[Clock_Tower]

I mean, Clock, since you're coming from a place of "objectivity," feel free to back up your point that the freshmen did a "great job" last season. Any evidence would be appreciated - stats, video, whatever you've got. I saw them play some solid games - I remember how optimistic I was after the Indiana State game - but you're talking about the whole season, right? Did you see any games? You have access to the same stats and information I have, right?

I still stand by something I've said many times on here - that Gillmann, Bartley, Yarbrough, and Roby have the potential to form a solid core of four-year players.

But saying I lack reason and objectivity for failing to "recognize the great job done by our Frosh last year" - that's absurd. I have absolutely no idea how anyone could reach that conclusion.

Not a joke. And, yes, I will be happy to explain after you explain how Neufeld was/is a virtual unknown. Type slow because, as you say, I just don't follow recruiting.

[bauman]

I don't think everyone would agree that our freshmen did a great job last year. I think that is kind of the big disconnect on the board right now. Some people have much higher evaluations of that class than others. I personally am on the fence, but I do really question the talent level of the now sophomore class. Some have seen enough and don't think they will be any good and others have seen enough to believe that they are the second coming of the Evans/Jett/Loe/McCall class. This season will go a long way in telling us what exactly we have in this class and which camp's evaluation was right.

Too bad you won't be there to decide for yourself! A few NCAA appearances then one bad year and you take your ball and go home! Congrats and goodbye. Use your season ticket money on the Rams.