Ranking Big East Candidates

[SLURadioBoy]

Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News posted an article today ranking the top 5 Big East expansion candidates. I think you all will like who he ranks as the top choice.

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2013-10-31/big-east-expansion-candidates-tom-crean-indiana-basketball-marshall-henderson?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I have asked Mike about this multiple times on Twitter, and he has told me that he thinks SLU will be in the Big East in the next year or two. It's probably speculation on his part, but it's better than nothing. Although I do realize the only opinions that matter are those of the Big East presidents.

[slu72]

I agree, now let's get 'er done, right Taj Mahal 79.

[Taj79]

@larry72 --- what did we learn from DeCourcy that was new? There wasn't an iota of any new fact that I saw there. We all have heard the same speculations over and over again. The only thing it did for me was strengthen my belief that the 12th school would be an east coast school more so than Dayton IF ... and this is the big IF ..... IF SLU is indeed #11. What IF Dayton is #11? I still think #12 is still an east coaster. Then we're screwed again.

What will be will be. The folks behind the curtain are likely talking. I'll worry about it still later.

[JettFlight5]

I like Decourcy's optimism. Not sure if it's worth anything, but better more than less.

[bauman]

He does seem inconsistent in that his main hurdle for Dayton (same media market as X) is not mentioned as a problem for Richmond which primarily has the same media market as Georgetown (DC area and northern Va.). However, adding Dayton and SLU would somewhat throw off the east/west division-Creighton, Marq.,Depaul, Butler, Xavier, SLU for the west and the remaining 5 plus Richmond is a better fit than Dayton instead of Richmond.

[cheeseman]

@larry72 --- what did we learn from DeCourcy that was new? There wasn't an iota of any new fact that I saw there. We all have heard the same speculations over and over again. The only thing it did for me was strengthen my belief that the 12th school would be an east coast school more so than Dayton IF ... and this is the big IF ..... IF SLU is indeed #11. What IF Dayton is #11? I still think #12 is still an east coaster. Then we're screwed again.

What will be will be. The folks behind the curtain are likely talking. I'll worry about it still later.

Dayton never made any sense to me - the market is the same or very close to X. I do not see X even all that keen on them. I figured if they go with an East Coast team, then we are the only logical choice for the last slot but who said logic had anything to do with it. By the way Creighton never made any sense to me either so go figure.

[Clock_Tower]

Dayton never made any sense to me - the market is the same or very close to X. I do not see X even all that keen on them. I figured if they go with an East Coast team, then we are the only logical choice for the last slot but who said logic had anything to do with it. By the way Creighton never made any sense to me either so go figure.

And Creighton should really pull for us due to geography in that we are probably the closed school to them.

And it's not just about TV markets and money (though that is one of SLU's strongest points) but the best market for new students. As the private schools continue to struggle for students against the less-expensive public universities, the Big East schools should keep in mind what might be best for themselves in drawing future students/future alumni. St. Louis is a huge market for students (including students who play basketball and might be good recruits -- see Nolan Berry and Roosevelt Jones) who might want to attend a new Big East school. Far more than compared with Dayton, Richmond and the like. Add to that the relatively large number of alumni from the various schools who live in St. Louis (again compared to Dayton or Richmond) and it's a no-brainer.

The big issue for SLU, of course, is that we need now keep our program going in the right direction -- we need sustained success on the basketball court. Frankly, the new Big East is full of program which have huge potential but remain mired in mediocrity.

[Cowboy]

-I hope his first sentence doesn't put the status quo thought into heads at Jesuit Halls in DC, Milwkee, Cincy and Omaha, we could use their support

[xudash]

Not that you're looking for a response out of left field, but I can share some info with you that does not directly come from the inner-sanctum, but is reliable:

If expansion were pursued, St. Louis presently is absolutely deemed to be target #1. Your recent track record, proven ability to draw fan support with a winning program, your facilities investments, St. Louis as a television market, and the fact that you tie Creighton closer to the midwestern schools all rest strongly in your favor. SLU as an institution is regarded as a major plus as well.

The BE was never going to go to 12 immediately. SLU's problem was that SLU was solid, but #12 was not obvious; there was not a 12th candidate that warranted inclusion. Would the BE have gone to 12 immediately if #12 had been obvious. Probably, simply because the Fox deal is structured to provide the same money per school whether the conference is comprised of 10 or 12 schools.

Here are your biggest problems:

1. Fox absolutely is not dictating terms and conditions to the Presidents; the Presidents are calling all the shots; and
2. There is a singular desire to digest what has been created - they have a lot of work to do to flesh out and smooth out their operations. And they want to see how the round robin dynamic plays out. They know they have time, because this entire thing has been put together with a long-term strategic view to build the brand and make it a part of a successful FS1 portfolio.

What could cause the President's to expand outside of what's on the table now? A 12-mix that would be perceived to be better position to garner more NCAA Units. The only other thing that could hurt SLU at this point is if you slide in performance; if something nuts happens in further football expansion, causing, say, a UCONN to emphasize hoops (no one is waiting for that to happen); if Gonzaga buys a G6, or some combination of them.

I tend to think that the BE will stick with 10 teams for probably at least 3 seasons, especially if NCAA bids come in at least 5 per season.

[Billiken Rich]

No offense intended but getting five out of ten for three years looks like a pretty tall order to me. Granted I've followed the noobs in the Big East more than the older members but I just don't see it at this point. The big question is, sadly, how much respect will the forth and fifth place teams in the NEW Big East get from the committee.........

[milwaukeebill]

Yeah I really see 3 bids for sure then teams 4 and 5 really debatable

[brianstl]

Yeah I really see 3 bids for sure then teams 4 and 5 really debatable

The teams in the conference have averaged a combined 5 bids per season over the past 5 seasons. Now, a few of those were auto bids from Butler and Creighton teams that would not have made the tourney as an at large team.

[milwaukeebill]

Yeah I mean essentially the 5th team will be 9-9 in league play right? Is a 500 big east team in the tournament? I have no idea but they'll be on the bubble.

[Clock_Tower]

Not that you're looking for a response out of left field, but I can share some info with you that does not directly come from the inner-sanctum, but is reliable:

If expansion were pursued, St. Louis presently is absolutely deemed to be target #1. Your recent track record, proven ability to draw fan support with a winning program, your facilities investments, St. Louis as a television market, and the fact that you tie Creighton closer to the midwestern schools all rest strongly in your favor. SLU as an institution is regarded as a major plus as well.

The BE was never going to go to 12 immediately. SLU's problem was that SLU was solid, but #12 was not obvious; there was not a 12th candidate that warranted inclusion. Would the BE have gone to 12 immediately if #12 had been obvious. Probably, simply because the Fox deal is structured to provide the same money per school whether the conference is comprised of 10 or 12 schools.

Here are your biggest problems:

1. Fox absolutely is not dictating terms and conditions to the Presidents; the Presidents are calling all the shots; and
2. There is a singular desire to digest what has been created - they have a lot of work to do to flesh out and smooth out their operations. And they want to see how the round robin dynamic plays out. They know they have time, because this entire thing has been put together with a long-term strategic view to build the brand and make it a part of a successful FS1 portfolio.

What could cause the President's to expand outside of what's on the table now? A 12-mix that would be perceived to be better position to garner more NCAA Units. The only other thing that could hurt SLU at this point is if you slide in performance; if something nuts happens in further football expansion, causing, say, a UCONN to emphasize hoops (no one is waiting for that to happen); if Gonzaga buys a G6, or some combination of them.

I tend to think that the BE will stick with 10 teams for probably at least 3 seasons, especially if NCAA bids come in at least 5 per season.

XUDASH.

Curious as to what your source has/had to say about:

1. why they chose Creighton over the rest of us.

2. what are the chances UD might have in joining as well (also curious to know your thoughts and/or what the average Xavier fan's thoughts are about UD in that we know it's a long-time rival, we know that both picked over by us and others with the Great Midwest/ Conf USA but your markets (for TV, students, recruiting...) definitely overlap.

3. what are the chances of Richmond joining as well.

4. any other choices in the running?

[xudash]

XUDASH.

Curious as to what your source has/had to say about:

1. why they chose Creighton over the rest of us.

2. what are the chances UD might have in joining as well (also curious to know your thoughts and/or what the average Xavier fan's thoughts are about UD in that we know it's a long-time rival, we know that both picked over by us and others with the Great Midwest/ Conf USA but your markets (for TV, students, recruiting...) definitely overlap.

3. what are the chances of Richmond joining as well.

4. any other choices in the running?

CT:

1. It appears as though it was a combination of your administration hurting you, and Creighton's administration definitely helping them. Creighton's board connection with Marquette was no small matter.

2. As for UD, this is my opinion based upon what I've heard: their chances are pretty low at this point. You can basically kiss all of the traditional rivalry stuff goodbye. We've already seen that happen across the board in both football and basketball, and it certainly seems likely now to happen here. More to the point, this isn't about Xavier never playing UD again, because they'll most likely crank it back up again on an annual basis once per year OOC, going back and forth. The point is that the XU/UD rivalry itself appears to carry little to no weight with the BE in terms of being a strategic reason for favoring UD's inclusion. That certainly pales in comparison to the 50 mile'ish proximity between the campuses, coupled with the ability to grab the St. Louis television market at some point. Finally, what really may be driving the bus on this one? Perceived strategic advantage. It is what it is, and any strategist worth his or her salt would not easily give up such an advantage. The stakes are simply different than when Xavier saved UD before by helping them get into the A10. Last of all, I doubt it would ever get to a so-called deciding Xavier vote, UD simply is located at a bad address for purposes of this discussion.

3. I have no good information on Richmond's position in all this. I know what you know: very attractive and well funded institution, highly respected by the BE members, Richmond actually is considered a separate market, GU has no problem with them, and they would provide east/west balance, but their resume and ability (perceived) to sustain success and fan support are primary concerns.

4. Absolutely no idea. I don't think much is coming out on that topic because they have settled into a ten team format for now.

In the abstract, I doubt we would be having this "conversation" had your President navigated this deal more effectively, especially had Rick not passed.

[Pistol]

Thanks for the input, xudash. Interesting points and perspective. I don't want all of it to get lost because people take issue with the Big East getting that many bids this year.

I was doing some research last night on the upcoming season and have to admit I don't see that many bids for the conference. Time will tell. But even the best programs in the conference this year- Marquette, Creighton, and Georgetown- have some glaring obstacles. All three should be Tournament teams, but things will have to break right for anyone else in the conference to make it this season. A lot of conferences that people aren't paying a whole lot of attention to right now - the Pac 12 and AAC come to mind - are going to get a good amount of bids.

Anyway, we've discussed the theory that our Biondi-led administration did us no favors in the initial New Big East formation, and it was publicized how well Creighton's administration lobbied for inclusion. That was a bummer. You also seem to confirm a lot of what I've been hearing about Dayton and how they don't mean as much to XU and the rest as they'd like to think. It seems to me that the pressure to expand the conference is coming from outside, not within, the conference membership itself. So the BE presidents are going to take as much time as they can before the inevitable expansion. In the meantime, we just have to win and sell tickets.

Thanks for the insights and good discussion. Always welcome here. Most visiting fans we see here are trolls, so it's a breath of fresh air.

[Clock_Tower]

CT:

1. It appears as though it was a combination of your administration hurting you, and Creighton's administration definitely helping them. Creighton's board connection with Marquette was no small matter.

2. As for UD, this is my opinion based upon what I've heard: their chances are pretty low at this point. You can basically kiss all of the traditional rivalry stuff goodbye. We've already seen that happen across the board in both football and basketball, and it certainly seems likely now to happen here. More to the point, this isn't about Xavier never playing UD again, because they'll most likely crank it back up again on an annual basis once per year OOC, going back and forth. The point is that the XU/UD rivalry itself appears to carry little to no weight with the BE in terms of being a strategic reason for favoring UD's inclusion. That certainly pales in comparison to the 50 mile'ish proximity between the campuses, coupled with the ability to grab the St. Louis television market at some point. Finally, what really may be driving the bus on this one? Perceived strategic advantage. It is what it is, and any strategist worth his or her salt would not easily give up such an advantage. The stakes are simply different than when Xavier saved UD before by helping them get into the A10. Last of all, I doubt it would ever get to a so-called deciding Xavier vote, UD simply is located at a bad address for purposes of this discussion.

3. I have no good information on Richmond's position in all this. I know what you know: very attractive and well funded institution, highly respected by the BE members, Richmond actually is considered a separate market, GU has no problem with them, and they would provide east/west balance, but their resume and ability (perceived) to sustain success and fan support are primary concerns.

4. Absolutely no idea. I don't think much is coming out on that topic because they have settled into a ten team format for now.

In the abstract, I doubt we would be having this "conversation" had your President navigated this deal more effectively, especially had Rick not passed.

XUDASH

Appreciate your thoughts. Remind me again about the events leading to X and UD to join the A10. You mention X helping UD get in the A10... As I recall, SLU and X had been in the MCC for years, that both were looking for a better conference to come along (MCC was a one (1) bid conference), that UD was still basking in the long ago glow of being 1 of the 4 "Great Independents" with ND, Marquette and DePaul; that Marquette was the first of these 4 to realize that it needed to join a conference; that Marquette first joined the MCC; that UD waited a few more years before joining the MCC in what turned out to be its final season. SLU, of course, ran off with Marquette and DePaul and joined the football/public schools including Cincy; that Cincy did not want X or UD in the conference.... but then I am without information as to what/how both X and UD joined the A10.

[Old guy]

So, to summarize the points made above. We are in A10, the chances of being invited into Big East in the near future are very low to non existent, and if anything is to happen favoring SLU it will be dependent upon continued winning and better relations between the new administration of SLU and the Big East presidents. This means we should stop pining to join Big East and concentrate in playing, winning, and recruiting the best people we can get.

[bostonspider]

Richmond fan here. Take it for what it is worth, but in my discussions with high ranking UR officials, they seem relatively confident that Richmond and St. Louis will end up in the Big East in the next few years. From what I was told, SLU seems to be a lock for the 11th spot, and it comes down to whether or not the BE wants to the geographic balance Richmond offers versus the more institutionally similar (i.e. Catholic) school in Dayton. I was told that Xavier does not want Dayton, and Georgetown and Villanova do want Richmond, with Georgetown being the greatest proponent of UR. I hope that UR's renovated arena, along with a very successful season this year helps seal the deal.

Renovated Robin Center is almost complete..

[kshoe]

XUDASH

Appreciate your thoughts. Remind me again about the events leading to X and UD to join the A10. You mention X helping UD get in the A10... As I recall, SLU and X had been in the MCC for years, that both were looking for a better conference to come along (MCC was a one (1) bid conference), that UD was still basking in the long ago glow of being 1 of the 4 "Great Independents" with ND, Marquette and DePaul; that Marquette was the first of these 4 to realize that it needed to join a conference; that Marquette first joined the MCC; that UD waited a few more years before joining the MCC in what turned out to be its final season. SLU, of course, ran off with Marquette and DePaul and joined the football/public schools including Cincy; that Cincy did not want X or UD in the conference.... but then I am without information as to what/how both X and UD joined the A10.

Dayton was in the Great Midwest with SLU, Cinci, Depaul, Marquette, Memphis, etc. Xavier joined the A-10 at that point.

When the Great Midwest and Metro merged into CUSA, Dayton wasn't invited and that's when Xavier may have helped them join the A-10.

Its funny to think that when the Great Midwest was formed it was Xavier on the outside looking in and most would have assumed at that point that SLU would succeed and Xavier would flounder. It goes to show that conference affiliation is not the end all be all and that you can make good things out of not great situations. That is what we are charged with right now...

[kshoe]

Regarding Creighton and them getting selected over SLU. While I do think that the relationships at the presidential level had a lot to do with it, people shouldn't be so quick to look past what Creighton has to offer. Most significantly, they currently have about 16k season ticket holders and have sold nearly 2,000 tickets to the Big East tourney in NYC. We have positives too, but lets be honest we come nowhere near matching those two categories.

[bonwich]

Slightly off-topic (and maybe someone mentioned it a few weeks ago), but has everyone noticed that Creighton is running academic recruiting ads on St. Louis radio stations?

[Pistol]

I'd be 100% down with SLU and Richmond as the 11th and 12th additions. Two geographic divisions, two more similarly-minded institutions. Richmond could be a Butler-like program. No reason why not.

[Taj79]

@bostonspider --- what's new with Robbins? The corner score/replay boards? Other than that, looks the same. I'm still trying to figure out what they did to "improve" GeeDub's "new and improved" Smith Center.

As I understand it, Marquette's bad blood with Dayton goes back to the MCC and how the conference essentially gave Dayton a free pass (or close to one) to three straight NCAA tournaments by sweetening their joining deal with hosting the conference tournament. Marquette was supposedly pissed that they didn't get this deal in a share basis. Then, when it was announced (at the MCC tournamnet in Dayton no less) in 1990 that Marquette and SLU were leaving for the Great Midwest, Daytonites were less than hospitable. Dayton sat for three years in the now less-than-lusterous MCC and was finally accepted into the Great Midwest in 1993 but was jilted again when we all left to form CUSA and didn't bring the Fryers along. Dayton went to the A10 that year and I guess Xavier helped them along that route.

The A10 formalized in 1982. Dayton joined in 1995, as did Xavier. These were the first teams west of the Pennsylvania state line so it appears they were a package deal. At the time they left the MCC in 1993, the league had dropped down to include Detroit, Butler, Evansville, Loyolas of Chicago and Xavier. Duquesne came in in 1993 as these two left. The league is today's Horizon league.

For years now, X has nevered consider Dayton it's rival. However, Dayton thinks X is theirs. X always has seen UofC as their rival and as shown in the Cross-Town Thug-Out. Dayton is small change to X.

I have long believed the 12th school is an East Coast school. Richmond seems more and more plausible. Mason is too much like VCU, public and huge (33K students). Another candidate Siena College. Just me rambling.

[bostonspider]

The renovated Robins Center has all new seats, large video boards in each corner, new hospitality suites above them, new lighting, new ceiling, new sound system, 500 new seats down closer to the court, which helps to compensate for losing seats in the corners. So far they have spent close to 20 Million. Next phase is to upgrade the concourse and entrances.

Original Arena

Renovated Arena rendering