ACE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Every game is obviously important, but I think this Richmond game is HUGE. Figuring we win all of our four remaining home games - while certainly no easy task, we should be favored in all those games. Then I figure we will lose at Butler, so that is 4-1. The big key for me are the other three road games - Richmond, Xavier and George Washington. All winnable, but all certainly games we could lose. If we played those three teams on a neutral floor, we would be clear favorites. I think we have to go 2-1 in those three road games to feel good about our chances to make the Dance. Or, no matter how we get there, we need 6-2 in our final 8 regular season games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shempie Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 While it means nothing, I would bet, as of today, we will be favored in every game with the exception of Butler that we have left. Maybe Wiz can weigh in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Agree w/ Ace that the 3 road games w/Richmond, X, and GWU are gonna be tough. GWU suddenly looks pretty good. X may not be the X of old but they did beat down Butler, and Richmond did defeat VCU. I also am worried about the home games as all those teams are capable of winning at the Fetz. Tough road for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Every game is obviously important, but I think this Richmond game is HUGE. Figuring we win all of our four remaining home games - while certainly no easy task, we should be favored in all those games. Then I figure we will lose at Butler, so that is 4-1. The big key for me are the other three road games - Richmond, Xavier and George Washington. All winnable, but all certainly games we could lose. If we played those three teams on a neutral floor, we would be clear favorites. I think we have to go 2-1 in those three road games to feel good about our chances to make the Dance. Or, no matter how we get there, we need 6-2 in our final 8 regular season games. 6-2 and SLU is going to Brooklyn talking about moving down a seed or two. If you are asking about the tournament then no SLU still has 3 or 4 games to give in the regular season. 5-3 finish is like a near lock (5-3 and then a flameout still gives them a solid RPI so likely in with some handwringing) and 4-4 finish may not make it but even then 2 wins in Brooklyn is another near lock (5-5 finish is where it gets into 50/50 and depends on what happens around NCAAland). People on this board do not realize how good SLU looks currently. They have two top 25 wins which is huge and despite inaccurate summaries on CBS have only one bad loss (Rhode Island as Santa Clara should be top 100). They did not play a lot road games but are doing well on the road as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 While it means nothing, I would bet, as of today, we will be favored in every game with the exception of Butler that we have left. Maybe Wiz can weigh in. SLU @ Richmond will be pick'em, maybe one team, SLU more likely, will be a 1 point favorite. Same SLU @ Butler, Butler is a national brand so they are likely to be a one or two pt favorite though that game might change with the forthcoming results. Both are tough spots for us... hungry Richmond and revenge Butler... but if our bigs keep stepping up, hey, we can do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Kwjibo, where are you seeing a respectable rpi for a 5-3 finish and first round a-10 loss? I see it as a 55 rpi per rpi forecast and that won't be good enough in my opinion. http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/St.%20Louis.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6-2 and SLU is going to Brooklyn talking about moving down a seed or two. If you are asking about the tournament then no SLU still has 3 or 4 games to give in the regular season. 5-3 finish is like a near lock (5-3 and then a flameout still gives them a solid RPI so likely in with some handwringing) and 4-4 finish may not make it but even then 2 wins in Brooklyn is another near lock (5-5 finish is where it gets into 50/50 and depends on what happens around NCAAland).People on this board do not realize how good SLU looks currently. They have two top 25 wins which is huge and despite inaccurate summaries on CBS have only one bad loss (Rhode Island as Santa Clara should be top 100). They did not play a lot road games but are doing well on the road as well. We can't lose 3 or 4 more games in conference. Period. I am glad we have dreamers on this board though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We can't lose 3 or 4 more games in conference. Period. I am glad we have dreamers on this board though. Finishing 3rd in the A-10 with an 11-5 record and 1 win in the conference tournament and we will be in, barely but in nonetheless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Finishing 3rd in the A-10 with an 11-5 record and 1 win in the conference tournament and we will be in, barely but in nonetheless DAMNIT, Westy. Get a winning attitude. Don't come back until you do. Tired of your losing ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DAMNIT, Westy. Get a winning attitude. Don't come back until you do. Tired of your losing ways. Well I never said we would finish 11-5, I just said we would still get in if that happened so sharpen up your reading comprehension skills. I have us finishing 12-4 with losses at Richmond and at Butler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well I never said we would finish 11-5, I just said we would still get in if that happened so sharpen up your reading comprehension skills. I have us finishing 12-4 with losses at Richmond and at Butler. I'm surprised 108 even lets this guy sit in the section. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For the second year in a row these conversations about realistic targets for making the dance sure are fun. Much better than the "if we win all 8 games down the stretch and 2 in the conference tourney are we in?" conversations we had the previous decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm surprised 108 even lets this guy sit in the section. You come down for a game and we win ... now you think you can just bully people. Bullying is bad, please stop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="kshoe" data-cid="341193" data-time="1360276637"><p> For the second year in a row these conversations about realistic targets for making the dance sure are fun. Much better than the "if we win all 8 games down the stretch and 2 in the conference tourney are we in?" conversations we had the previous decade.</p></blockquote> I think those conversations went more like this "if we win all 8 games down the stretch and 2 in the conference tourney will the NIT give us an invite?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If you look at the RPI forecast with conference tournaments simulation, it seems like 23+ wins going into selection Sunday should get us in. That means some combination of regular season and conference tournament wins so 6-2 reg (0-1 conf tourney), 5-3 reg (1-1 conf tourney), 4-4 (2-1 conf tourney), 3-5 (3-1), 2-6 or worse and we need to win the conf tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 While it means nothing, I would bet, as of today, we will be favored in every game with the exception of Butler that we have left. Maybe Wiz can weigh in. I touched on this topic in A-!0 Mid Term Report Card thread. Basically, we will be favored in 7 of the 8 remaining games. 4 of the games will be very close.....Rich, GW, X and VCU The Bills will be favored in all of those by 2-3 points. I am going to wait on the Butler game to see how we do against VCU and then figure a spread. If we take the 3 we should win plus split the the remaining 5 (3-2) we can finish 6-2...most likely scenario..... It is possible for us to run the table....if we lose focus then we drop to 3-5. For now, I will take 12-4 and a nice tourney run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deutschkind Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just downed a glass of Kool-Aid. We'll go 14-2 for our conference season!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm surprised 108 even lets this guy sit in the section. 108 is weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So we're saying our magic number is 6? Which is a serious number, by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlumniFan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just downed a glass of Kool-Aid. We'll go 14-2 for our conference season!!! This guy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Kwjibo, where are you seeing a respectable rpi for a 5-3 finish and first round a-10 loss? I see it as a 55 rpi per rpi forecast and that won't be good enough in my opinion.http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/St.%20Louis.html Fair question. Each top 25 win in regression analysis is worth (conservatively) 4-5 RPI rankings; of course I am ignoring some factors that could hurt SLU in their profile. But that 55 is no end of the line; it might not be good enough but that would depend solely who is fighting for the last spots with them and how many spots got taken away in the final week. Put it this way, RIGHT NOW SLU's RPI is around 55 and they are a unanimous choice of all the bracketologists (sure they may be hedging their bets as SLU is very likely to improve significantly but most of them are saying their method is "if the tournament were held today"). More importantly that page says if we win out, SLU is a 3 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just downed a glass of Kool-Aid. We'll go 14-2 for our conference season!!! It is crazy. If Vegas put out lines today for the rest of the season, we would likely be favored in every game. Richmond is the key. How we play there is going to tell us a lot. Style of play and match ups worry me with Richmond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We can't lose 3 or 4 more games in conference. Period. I am glad we have dreamers on this board though. It is not dreaming; it is analysis of history. It is knowledge that the tournament has 68 teams and changed formats in minor conferences. 11-5 and 1-1 (or better) or 10-6 and 2-1 (or better) in Brooklyn are in (see K-shoe's link above). There are even worse possibilities but then we are talking about some hand-wringing and needing help from other teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.