Predictions for final 7 games

[slu72]

The encouraging signs for us: Getting the ball low to BC again. KM seems to be snapping out of his funk. MM starting in lieu of KC. They seem to have regained the D intensity. All the plusses need to stay in place. The minuses: FT....FT.... FT shooting up down all around over all BAD! To think they're not going to come into play in the next 7 games is naive. They must get their collective heads out of their collective a*&es and make them What opposing coach wouldn't say to his team w/ 3 min left and down by 4 or 5 to send 'em to the line and be quick about it. Leaning toward a 5-2 finish, but it could be better if WE HIT OUR FTS!

[kshoe]

What do they say, bet with your head and not your heart? Once again, we see a huge emotional swing on this board from us doing what we should do, defend the home court against crappy, below-our-level teams. Now, we're ignoriong some hard facts and "running the table," using sentiment and euphoria over facts.

Richmond: should be no contest but past history has shown we do relatively well there, they here. Cannot afford to lose.

This coming from the guy that predicted us to finish 7-9 after a tough loss to Temple.

What recent history are you referring to with Richmond? Last year we lost by 12 at Richmond. The year before we lost by 26 @ Richmond but won by 5 in the home game.

[slufan13]

7-0

[Taj79]

Point of information: 7 and 9 is still quite doable. It won't be impossible until we win our 8th game. Which could come as early as Saturday. Or not. The trend was downward at the time of that extrapolation, it was not meant to serve as a prediction.. Charlotte and X road wins made a mockery of that trend (and me). I accept that. UImass reversed the upward trend established in those events and essentially zero-ed it out. Back to even keel. The wins over the Bonnies and Dayton I expected, but the trend at this point remains even -- which is win at home and still get all sorts of questions against average and even below average teams on the road. Complicating matters with Bizziken's note about Rhode beating Umass and Dayton lately. What this team actually does vis-a-vis expectations is still undetermined in my mind., Could they go 7 and 0? Yes. Could they go 0 and 7? Yes, but extremely unlikely. I have two fer-shure wins as I see it right now -- Richmond and Fordham but am expressing caution over Richmond. ONE GAME AT A TIME. I seem to recall one poster (who obviosuly wasn't serious) talking about an undefeated season and national title back in the pre-season. Rag on his arse.

Richmond: 05-06 there lost 65 to 54; 06-07 here won 78 to 68; 07-08 there won 64 to 55; 08-09 here lost 70 to 62 there won 85 to 72 (3OTs); 09-10 here won 63 to 58 there lost 62 to 36; last year lost there 64 to 52. What I see here is a recent history where the end results, while important in the overall won/loss record, are demonstrating an ability by either team to win no matter the location. Throwing out the 26 point fiasco the second game of the 09-10 season, the average winning margin for eithere team is 65 points over 7 games or so for an average of about 9 points. We've won there twice, they here once. All I'm saying is that the games appear close and if it is, given our Jekyl and Hyde FT performances this year, who really knows? I just caution against the emotional swing that always happens on this board.

Here's the 800-pound goirilla in the room: I expect us to lose both games in Philly this weekend. I then expect the sky to drop precipitously on this board and doom and gloom to reign supreme. I hope I am wrong and kshoe has much more time to ridicule me for it.

[David King]

6-1

[SShoe]

Here's the 800-pound goirilla in the room: I expect us to lose both games in Philly this weekend. I then expect the sky to drop precipitously on this board and doom and gloom to reign supreme. I hope I am wrong and kshoe has much more time to ridicule me for it.

So why do you expect this? The odds makers will either have us as the slight favorites in both games or at least even.

[billiken_roy]

So why do you expect this? The odds makers will either have us as the slight favorites in both games or at least even.

sshoe, i am guessing taj only said that in an effort to get kshoe focus off me and onto him. what a good friend. taj that is. kshoe, not so much. you are sure he's your brother?

[MB73]

WIth 4 road games... 3 are tough ones.. and Xavier at home, odds are that we might go 4-3, but I say we'll go 5-2.

They have to do better, 6-1 is the goal.

[moytoy12]

Point of information: 7 and 9 is still quite doable. It won't be impossible until we win our 8th game. Which could come as early as Saturday. Or not. The trend was downward at the time of that extrapolation, it was not meant to serve as a prediction.. Charlotte and X road wins make a mockery of that trend (and me). I accept that. UImass reversed the upward trend established in those events and essentially zero-ed it out. Back to even keel. The wins over the Bonnies and Dayton i expected, but the trend at this point remains even -- which is win at home and still get all sorts of questions against average and even below average teams on the road. Complicat ematter with Bizziken's note about Rhode beating Umass and Dayton lately. What this team actually does vis-a-vis expectations is still undetermined inb my mind., Could they go 7 and 0? Yes. Coul,d they go 0 and 7? Yes, but extremely unlikely. I have two fer-shure wins as I see it right now -- Richmond and Fordham but am expressing caution over Richmond. ONE GAME AT A TIME. I seem to recall one idiot (who obviosuly wasn't serious) talkign about an undefeated season and national title back in the pre-season.

Richmond: 05-06 there lost 65 to 54; 06-07 here won 78 to 68; 07-08 there won 64 to 55; 08-09 here lost 70 to 62 there won 85 to 72 (3OTs); 09-10 here won 63 to 58 there lost 62 to 36; last year lost there 64 to 52. What I see here is a recent history where the end results, while important in the overall won/loss record, are demonstrating an ability by either team to win no matter the location. Throwing out the 26 point fiasco the second game of the 09-10 season, the average winning margin for eithere team is 65 points over 7 games or so for an average of about 9 points. We've won there twice, they here once. All I'm saying is that the games appear close and if it is, given our Jekyl and Hyde FT performances this year, who really knows? I just have to caution against the emotional swing that always happens on this board.

Here's the 800-pound goirilla in the room: I expect us to lose both games in Philly this weekend. I then expect the sky to drop precipitously on this board and doom and gloom to reign supreme. I hope I am wrong and kshoe has much more time to ridicule me for it.

And people call me a pessimist (or maybe this whole thing is tongue in cheek and I just missed it). We ain't going 7-9 in conference. No way, no how. I felt the same way when you made that silly prediction.

And why is a poster who was obviously joking about going undefeated an idiot? He was joking.

[kshoe]

I'd put the odds of us finishing 7-9 or worse below the odds of Ace, Roy, MB73, and moytoy all getting together to sing kumbaya.

Not gonna happen.

Bills will finish 6-1. The thing I don't like about the naysayers that predict 7-9 or two losses in Philly or whatever is that when they are right they'll do an "I told you so" and when they are wrong they'll talk about how happy they are to eat crow. It's lame.

[Quality Is Job 1]

So why do you expect this? The odds makers will either have us as the slight favorites in both games or at least even.

Sorry, but I also suspect that there's a greater chance that the Bills will lose two in Philadelphia than winning even one, let alone two. I'll be happy if they win one of the two, and I'll be ecstatic if they win them both.

Moreover, winning at Duquesne is no shoe-in, either. The Billikens have work to do.

[waldo027]

Someone please explain how the SLU-Richmond game from January 18, 2006 has any impact on the upcoming SLU-Richmond game on February 15, 2012. None of the current players are at either school. I can't quite grasp it.

[jbizzle09]

Someone please explain how the SLU-Richmond game from January 18, 2006 has any impact on the upcoming SLU-Richmond game on February 15, 2012. None of the current players are at either school. I can't quite grasp it.

It doesn't. Plain and simple.

[West Pine Jim]

5-2 in our remaining games. Hope I am underestimating us.

[SShoe]

Sorry, but I also suspect that there's a greater chance that the Bills will lose two in Philadelphia than winning even one, let alone two. I'll be happy if they win one of the two, and I'll be ecstatic if they win them both.

Moreover, winning at Duquesne is no shoe-in, either. The Billikens have work to do.

Again, why? People who make a living predicting the scores of these games will have us as slight favorites in both games. But even if they put both games as a pick-em, you're essentially flipping a coin twice. What are the odds of hitting tails twice in a row? 1 in 4. So, odds are we split, which just about everyone on this board would be fine with.

You and Taj are right that losing both would be a big blow to our NCAA bid chances, but I stand by my earlier statement that 5-2 the rest of the way will get us in. Is beating X at home or Duq/RI on the road sure things? No, but I think we have a better shot at going 5-0 in the last 5 games than 2-0 this week, so all will not be lost.

[jbizzle09]

5-2 in our remaining games. Hope I am underestimating us.

5-2 in the last 7 should be fine for our at-large chances as long as the losses aren't against Fordham, URI or Richmond. That should still leave us with an RPI firmly in the 30s, a top 3 finish in the conference (possibly even regular season champs, the way it is going now) and an overall record of 23-7 (22-7 against D-1).

[prebilliken]

This Hawks roster is the same TURRRIBLE Hawks roster that came to the 'Fetz last year and lost by 16 (I can't put numbers in caps) to the suspension-strapped Baby Thrillikens.

I know the situation of both teams is different, I know that it is at Hawk Hill this time around.

BUT: These (practically the) same rosters have seen each other and the Bills came out on top. Now throw in KM3. Now throw in Dwayne Evans who benches presses school busses, and a Brian Conklin capable of eating souls. Seriously, I drink the Kool-Aid so hard I get my stomach pumped, I know, but I also know that when it comes down to matchups this one is in the bag. If both teams play their best games tomorrow night, the Bills win. If the Bills make slightly more mistakes tomorrow night, the Bills win. If the Bills execute their D so that St. Joes can't play to their best game, they win big.

Take the hype from this game and the Fightin' John Gianninis won't know what hit them.

2-0 on their way to 7-0. Can't the Bills get hot? Everyone is saying no but not why. Past road records are rough, sure, but they've won 5 of their last 6. This team can go on a streak.

[billiken_roy]

I'd put the odds of us finishing 7-9 or worse below the odds of Ace, Roy, MB73, and moytoy all getting together to sing kumbaya.

Not gonna happen.

Bills will finish 6-1. The thing I don't like about the naysayers that predict 7-9 or two losses in Philly or whatever is that when they are right they'll do an "I told you so" and when they are wrong they'll talk about how happy they are to eat crow. It's lame.

actually i would love the opportunity to meet ace, and mb73. i didnt know i had any issues with moytoy, but if we are sideways as well, i am sorry moy. moy is one of my favorite posters and the thought of scheduling a dinner and evening of discussing basketball with moy and jimbo would be the only reason for me to visit colorado actually.

my point is, be careful of your kumbaya summit thoughts. it wouldnt be me holding that up from happening!

btw, i agree no way we go 7-9 in conference play. however i do think 10-6 or even 9-7 is a possiblity. i just dont like the road and the overall parrity of the a-10 to think a 13-3 or 12-4 is possible. right now if i had to bet, i would be debating 11-5 or 10-6.

[jbizzle09]

actually i would love the opportunity to meet ace, and mb73. i didnt know i had any issues with moytoy, but if we are sideways as well, i am sorry moy. moy is one of my favorite posters and the thought of scheduling a dinner and evening of discussing basketball with moy and jimbo would be the only reason for me to visit colorado actually.

my point is, be careful of your kumbaya summit thoughts. it wouldnt be me holding that up from happening!

btw, i agree no way we go 7-9 in conference play. however i do think 10-6 or even 9-7 is a possiblity. i just dont like the road and the overall parrity of the a-10 to think a 13-3 or 12-4 is possible. right now if i had to bet, i would be debating 11-5 or 10-6.

I think kshoe is probably pointing out the individual feuds of ACE and you along with moytoy and MB73. Considering that you have had runins with MB73 as well, that is probably where the confusion is

[moytoy12]

actually i would love the opportunity to meet ace, and mb73. i didnt know i had any issues with moytoy, but if we are sideways as well, i am sorry moy. moy is one of my favorite posters and the thought of scheduling a dinner and evening of discussing basketball with moy and jimbo would be the only reason for me to visit colorado actually.

my point is, be careful of your kumbaya summit thoughts. it wouldnt be me holding that up from happening!

btw, i agree no way we go 7-9 in conference play. however i do think 10-6 or even 9-7 is a possiblity. i just dont like the road and the overall parrity of the a-10 to think a 13-3 or 12-4 is possible. right now if i had to bet, i would be debating 11-5 or 10-6.

roy, no apologies necessary and thanks for the kind words. We're not sideways at all. Jbizzle hit the nail on the head with his post.

I will make it to St. Louis for a game some time. When that day happens everyone on this board better have hall passes from their significant others for 2-3 days.

[billiken_roy]

I think kshoe is probably pointing out the individual feuds of ACE and you along with moytoy and MB73. Considering that you have had runins with MB73 as well, that is probably where the confusion is

those are just debate. i love to argue. and i think the rest (including kshoe, many of you might be surprised to know, but every time i see kshoe, i make sure i shake his hand and say hi. imo he is a great guy. his whole family is wonderful imo.) are the same. the bottom line is we all love the billikens. the fringes might cause some anxiety but all in all we all love the billikens. the other stuff will just make for good spirited conversation. it's all about the passion. without that life would be pretty boring.

[dlarry]

The encouraging signs for us: Getting the ball low to BC again. KM seems to be snapping out of his funk. MM starting in lieu of KC. They seem to have regained the D intensity. All the plusses need to stay in place. The minuses: FT....FT.... FT shooting up down all around over all BAD! To think they're not going to come into play in the next 7 games is naive. They must get their collective heads out of their collective a*&es and make them What opposing coach wouldn't say to his team w/ 3 min left and down by 4 or 5 to send 'em to the line and be quick about it. Leaning toward a 5-2 finish, but it could be better if WE HIT OUR FTS!

Agree with this.

Another area of concern, although not to the FT level, is 3 point shooting.

The last few games the outside shot has been awful. They have been able to get by becaus of great D, Conklins crazy FG% and guards getting to the rim.

But they wont win a lot of games if they keep shooting 5/20+ from behind the arc.

I see them going 5-2 down the stretch.

6-1 or 7-0 would be AWESOME but Im still trying to erase 30 years of negativity to be that optimistic at this point.

[ACE]

those are just debate. i love to argue. and i think the rest (including kshoe, many of you might be surprised to know, but every time i see kshoe, i make sure i shake his hand and say hi. imo he is a great guy. his whole family is wonderful imo.) are the same. the bottom line is we all love the billikens. the fringes might cause some anxiety but all in all we all love the billikens. the other stuff will just make for good spirited conversation. it's all about the passion. without that life would be pretty boring.

Well said roy. Kumbaya! Now about that Soderberg...

[Cowboy]

This Hawks roster is the same TURRRIBLE Hawks roster that came to the 'Fetz last year and lost by 16 (I can't put numbers in caps) to the suspension-strapped Baby Thrillikens.

I know the situation of both teams is different, I know that it is at Hawk Hill this time around.

BUT: These (practically the) same rosters have seen each other and the Bills came out on top. Now throw in KM3. Now throw in Dwayne Evans who benches presses school busses, and a Brian Conklin capable of eating souls. Seriously, I drink the Kool-Aid so hard I get my stomach pumped, I know, but I also know that when it comes down to matchups this one is in the bag. If both teams play their best games tomorrow night, the Bills win. If the Bills make slightly more mistakes tomorrow night, the Bills win. If the Bills execute their D so that St. Joes can't play to their best game, they win big.

Take the hype from this game and the Fightin' John Gianninis won't know what hit them.

2-0 on their way to 7-0. Can't the Bills get hot? Everyone is saying no but not why. Past road records are rough, sure, but they've won 5 of their last 6. This team can go on a streak.

-actually it is not the same roster if for no other reason all their frosh are now sophs

[Duff Man]

Last year at the Fetz, Langston Galloway scored 6 points on 2-7 shooting, 0-2 from beyond the arc. We're probably not getting off that easy on Wednesday night.

In 2011-12, he's averaging 15.5 PPG while shooting 45.9% from 3.