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Predictions for final 7 games


AMDG

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Thank you absurd bills fan (thicks). I am not on here to raise she-it as Joey Fluegel, Vtime, Metz 1.0 (earliest version), Tigerphan and others have. I'm not trolling it. On the contrary kshoe, I don't believe I've ever said "I told you so" and make a habit to go out of my way NOT to say it. Or so I think and my memory ain't always spot on as yours is (Bobby Brannen making 27 out of 28 FTs once). You won't see me challenge you to bring your dad to meet my dad so my dad can beat yours up or something. It's all opinion. It's all discussion board. It's mostly all good. Kshoe calls something "lame." So what? I believe I've shaken kshoe's hand and had lunch with him. I'd do it again. Nothing better than meeting guys like Nick, Steve, tseugnekillib, Willie, box, kwjybo and others. I think we can all agree on the war --- which is Billiken Blue. The issue lies in some individual skirmishes and battles. Variety is the spice of life.

What do I want? I want 10 and 0. That is winning out and winning 3 in AC. That's a 3 seed if you ask me. But much like a leopard does not change his spots, my history and experience with this program tells me ... SCREAMS at me .... that what I want and reality are two different universes. Even when we had the Spoon years and Hughes' year, I did not feel comfortable until our name was revealed on Selection Sunday. Rather, I am accustomed to a 'Miracle in Memphis' type event, where we bust the mold and bust through. And that's happened once in my SLU life.

@prebilliken --- your analogy on last year's St. Joe's team is a good one. How about this, last year Umass came to the Fetz and lost by 16. The only addition to that team this year was Chaz Williams. The subtractions were the backcourt of Anthony Gurley and Ricky Harris. At first blush, to me, that makes this year's Umass team significantly depleted from last year. Yet, they won in Amherst by 13. Food for thought.

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Again, why? People who make a living predicting the scores of these games will have us as slight favorites in both games. But even if they put both games as a pick-em, you're essentially flipping a coin twice. What are the odds of hitting tails twice in a row? 1 in 4. So, odds are we split, which just about everyone on this board would be fine with.

You and Taj are right that losing both would be a big blow to our NCAA bid chances, but I stand by my earlier statement that 5-2 the rest of the way will get us in. Is beating X at home or Duq/RI on the road sure things? No, but I think we have a better shot at going 5-0 in the last 5 games than 2-0 this week, so all will not be lost.

The folks extrapolating the odds have nothing to do with the actual outcomes of the games, and I put no stock in what they think. It's hard to win on the road in conference. I don't see how the Billikens can be favorites in either game, let alone both games. But that doesn't mean they can't win both games; the question is if they'll play well enough to do so. Will they play up to their potential for 80 minutes (or more)? They were good enough for 35 minutes to win at Dayton, but failure in the last 5 minutes of regulation nullified it, and they couldn't recover in the extra 5 minutes. They weren't good enough to beat Temple at home, but then they were great in winning at Xavier, only to turn around and stink it up at UMass-Amhearst. They're still relying heavily on sophomores, so I will wait to see if they will play well enough to win at St. Joe's, La Salle, and Duquesne. Often teams get an emotional road win at a top-tier team only to lose a road game against a lower-tier team.

I just think this team has yet to earn fans' confidence that they can win road games against teams of the caliber of Saint Joseph's and La Salle this season. And I'm not saying this to be able to say I'm right if they lose: I want the Bills to win out and emulate Butler (2010 & '11 edition), but they've got to play very well to do it. I won't be posting any self-congratulatory posts if they go 0-2 in Philly, but I also won't be proclaiming gloom and doom either, because the season won't be over and hopeless. But certainly winning at least one of those games fortifies the Bills' tournament resume.

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Another area of concern, although not to the FT level, is 3 point shooting.

The last few games the outside shot has been awful. They have been able to get by becaus of great D, Conklins crazy FG% and guards getting to the rim.

Agree, but if Conklin and even Evans can heat up down low....it will open up the outside. We actually had quite a few wide open looks against UD that we just barely missed. Cassity missed one, Kwamain missed a few, Ellis had his fair share, and Rob had about 5 open looks before finally hitting one. Rob has a very quick release, but sometimes I think it's too quick. Set your feet, square up and stroke it. He's tall enough to put an extra 1/2 second into this....

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