slufan13 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I know prediction threads get out of hand and annoying at times, but I'm just excited for the season. Wanted to get some good discussions on how everyone thinks we're going to do. For the sake of the poll, let's say that the Illinois-Springfield game doesn't count. Win totals are for regular season only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken class of 15 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 My prediction for the Billikens: 23-6 Losses: Washington, New Mexico in the 76 Classic Championship Game, at New Mexico on New years eve, Temple, at Xavier, and St. Bonaventure Just my predictions, gonna have to wait and see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 25-5. I included the Springfield game Losses: Old Spice, @New Mexico, @Xavier, @UNCC, and @DU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bk18 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 According to other posters, I was out of my mind to consider "no more than 4 losses at home". I think 3 losses at home, 5 on the road before the post season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 20-11 (i'm counting springfield dammit to get to 20) losses wash, 2 @ the 76 classic, loyola, new mex, temple, dayton, xavier (twice) one upset loss and go 1 and 1 in the conf tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 According to other posters, I was out of my mind to consider "no more than 4 losses at home". I think 3 losses at home, 5 on the road before the post season. Nobody said you "were out of your mind" regarding the potential for 4 home losses. But you were talking about an NCAA at large bid AND 4 home losses and to think both of those things can happen is pretty much out of your mind. 7 losses is the most this team can have and still be a serious at-large candidate. If we lose 4 at home we are F'd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 25-5 Losses....... 2nd round 76, @XU, @Duquesne, @New Mexico, and Temple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjray Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 20-11 (i'm counting springfield dammit to get to 20) losses wash, 2 @ the 76 classic, loyola, new mex, temple, dayton, xavier (twice) one upset loss and go 1 and 1 in the conf tourney.That sounds about right. I'll say 21-10 with us beating Loyola. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 22-7, makes the finals of A-10 tourney and then dancing on the big stage as an 11 seed. Sweet 16, here we come! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 22-8 (Counting Springfield) , with losses against: Washington, 76 Classic, @ New Mexico, Flex Non-Conference game, @ Xavier, Temple, GW/St. Bonaventure, Flex Conference game...We go 2-1 in the A-10 Tourney and we'll be at 24-9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVBilliken Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 22-8 for regular season. Wish it could be better but we just don't have a dominate big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills10 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Anyone who votes for less than 28 is not a true Bills fan. That is counting Rockhurst (whatever happened to Billy Billy or w/e his name was?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Nobody said you "were out of your mind" regarding the potential for 4 home losses. But you were talking about an NCAA at large bid AND 4 home losses and to think both of those things can happen is pretty much out of your mind. 7 losses is the most this team can have and still be a serious at-large candidate. If we lose 4 at home we are F'd. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 All in with the Blue chips. 30-6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I didn't have a voting option for 30, so I voted 29 wins. Bills in the elite 8 guaranteed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 My predictions rest on the first two games.. We play two good teams, home and away...If we can come out and handle these two "good" teams and win the games we are supposed to win, I like our chances.. We are going to beat WU...That is our hype game and getting Wash early in the season will help..but we have to win the tough games against less formidable opponents Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 KenPom has us going 12-19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 KenPom has us going 12-19.Again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Again? 23-8. Why is just about everyone considering Temple at home a loss? Didn't we almost beat them last year at their place? Doing this thread/prediction, however, is just a painful reminder of how much WR will be missed. With him on the floor, we could have won 25 or 26 games. Take the St. B game as a prime example. I've got us winning but with that NBA caliber big they've got, it won't be a day at the beach and for some unknown reason their brown unis make us play like s**t.. And we all better pray KM stays healthy for the whole year and gets some serious rest against the poor sisters on our schedule. We'll need a rested KM at the end of the year. 23-8 could get us in but only if we get to the A-10 championship game and log some wins come against teams like UW, New Mex, X, and Temple. The more I keep thinking about this year's team and schedule, the more I keep thinking Rob Loe and Cory Remekun have to be the difference makers for us. Fairly confident guys like BC, DE, and even CE will meet expectations, but RL and CR are going to have to exceed them for us to have a successful season, which at this point is to make the dance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_davola Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 23-8. Why is just about everyone considering Temple at home a loss? Didn't we almost beat them last year at their place? Doing this thread/prediction, however, is just a painful reminder of how much WR will be missed. With him on the floor, we could have won 25 or 26 games. Take the St. B game as a prime example. I've got us winning but with that NBA caliber big they've got, it won't be a day at the beach and for some unknown reason their brown unis make us play like s**t.. And we all better pray KM stays healthy for the whole year and gets some serious rest against the poor sisters on our schedule. We'll need a rested KM at the end of the year. 23-8 could get us in but only if we get to the A-10 championship game and log some wins come against teams like UW, New Mex, X, and Temple. The more I keep thinking about this year's team and schedule, the more I keep thinking Rob Loe and Cory Remekun have to be the difference makers for us. Fairly confident guys like BC, DE, and even CE will meet expectations, but RL and CR are going to have to exceed them for us to have a successful season, which at this point is to make the dance. Seems funny that you are surprised that people are predicting a loss to Temple when earlier this year you were in freak out mode when we lost some practice games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Seems funny that you are surprised that people are predicting a loss to Temple when earlier this year you were in freak out mode when we lost some practice games. I'm still in freak out mode about those games. We all should be, because a pretty solid NCAA tourney team would not have lost those 2 games. I don't think Temple would've lost them. I know X wouldn't have lost 'em. But we played Temple tough last year and this year we get them at home with KM. The Bills are always tough at home, unless it's St. B's. I even think we could beat Carleton at home. Joe D, I'll drink the kool aid as quick as anyone, but not before I see a few quality wins from this team. I expect Temple to be one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I'm still in freak out mode about those games. We all should be, because a pretty solid NCAA tourney team would not have lost those 2 games. I don't think Temple would've lost them. I know X wouldn't have lost 'em. But we played Temple tough last year and this year we get them at home with KM. The Bills are always tough at home, unless it's St. B's. I even think we could beat Carleton at home. Joe D, I'll drink the kool aid as quick as anyone, but not before I see a few quality wins from this team. I expect Temple to be one of them. We did almost beat Temple last year, BUT they played without Juan Fernandez (All Conference 3rd Team) and Lavoy Allen (All Conference 1st Team) got into foul trouble and played less than 20 minutes. We were very lucky. The only player Temple loses is the aforementioned Allen, but with Randall, Moore (All Conference 2nd Team), and Fernandez returning, Temple is going to be pretty damn good, especially if Jefferson and that behemoth Michael Eric improve...We can beat them, but it will be one hell of a dogfight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 7 losses is the most this team can have and still be a serious at-large candidate. If we lose 4 at home we are F'd. I think in general this is a reasonable estimate. I would put 8 regular season victories in play (21-8) as having a very good chance. I just did some back of the envelope calculation stuff (not really looking too closely at our SOS for now) and 7 regular season losses would make us good at large candidates (presuming we have at least one top 50 win). It is also true that 8 regular season losses would get us a look as well (I am factoring in decent season in for our conference doubles--but the minute Dayton or Duquesne look like they are going to lose 12 or more games the 7 win regular season comes into play). It does matter of course who and where and when SLU loses. If we lost 4 at home BUT only lost 3 or 4 on the road AND had at least 2 big wins AND finished with less than 3 losses in Mar/Feb I expect a very good chance. Winning more than 2 games at the conference tourney would help as well. There are lots of factors but 9 losses (including tournament) would still likely have us dancing if we have a few other profile aspects looking good. In general, we need the A-10 to do well non-conference. A good A-10 non-conference start (60% or better) would make 8 losses danceable but a mediocre (55% or worse) would make 7 more likely. Over 33% of your final RPI depends on the record of your conference opponents which is more important RPI wise than your own record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think in general this is a reasonable estimate. I would put 8 regular season victories in play (21-8) as having a very good chance. I just did some back of the envelope calculation stuff (not really looking too closely at our SOS for now) and 7 regular season losses would make us good at large candidates (presuming we have at least one top 50 win). It is also true that 8 regular season losses would get us a look as well (I am factoring in decent season in for our conference doubles--but the minute Dayton or Duquesne look like they are going to lose 12 or more games the 7 win regular season comes into play). It does matter of course who and where and when SLU loses. If we lost 4 at home BUT only lost 3 or 4 on the road AND had at least 2 big wins AND finished with less than 3 losses in Mar/Feb I expect a very good chance. Winning more than 2 games at the conference tourney would help as well. There are lots of factors but 9 losses (including tournament) would still likely have us dancing if we have a few other profile aspects looking good. In general, we need the A-10 to do well non-conference. A good A-10 non-conference start (60% or better) would make 8 losses danceable but a mediocre (55% or worse) would make 7 more likely. Over 33% of your final RPI depends on the record of your conference opponents which is more important RPI wise than your own record. We tend to look at this dance thing in a vacumn, ie how well we do. No doubt it's important we offer a quality resume come selection Sunday, but we can't ignore how the BCS "maybe's" and other strong mid major's are performing. Will the Beast get 11 invites again? That's a ridiculously high number, so let's hope not. Will there be a mid major conf or two that gets 2 like last year with GM and VCU? The point being is we're not alone and we'll have to be watching what's taking place elsewhere around the country. Right now there are likely 50 teams that are virtual locks to make it, so we're likely competing for one of 18 spots against 60 teams that have reasonable aspirations of making the dance. These are just rough numbers but we've clearly got to win some name games this year that separate us from this pack of 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 losses... washington - new mexico - vill - @X - temple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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