Repost: Why I'm not so optimistic about 2005-06

[Quality Is Job 1]

I posted this Billsboys's "No mas" thread and it seems to have gotten overlooked, so I'm reposting it. Thoughts?

I feel those who think many of the posters here are being a bit too optimistic. Even though I have tended to be among the most optimistic (or blindly homerish) Billikens fans here, I think the Bills' experience -- or lack there of -- will not be conducive to having a record much above .500, if at all. That would be if everything goes right. If anything goes wrong, as tends to happen during a long basketball season, we're probably looking at wins somewhere in the range of 11 or 12.

The guards are all freshmen and sophomores (except Anthony Drejaj, who I don't think we want to have the reins at the point). The last time that happened -- Marque Perry was a sophomore coming off of a devastating, season-ending injury, Drew Diener was a sophomore, Josh Fisher was a sophomore playing his first season after sitting out as a transfer, and Jason Edwin, Chris Sloan, and Floyd McClain were freshmen -- the Billikens missed the postseason despite having probably the best overall frontcourt in the conference (Maurice Jeffers, Matt Baniak, Chris Heinrich, and Justin Tatum). I know that I picked the Bills to do quite well that season, but at the end of the season I had to admit that I'd overlooked the lack of backcourt experience (and guards of the lifeblood of college basketball).

I would like to be optimistic, but considering the Bills' lack of experience on the perimeter, I can't wisely project the Billikens to do much better than last year, if at all better.

[thetorch]

I think we do have a legit shot at at least .500 record. I don't think a post season berth is in the cards but it will be a step ahead.

I don't think comparing that 00-01 team to this years is a good indicator. That team played in a stronger conference. We will see that the A-10 is much weaker relatively than CUSA. In the A-10 there is not as much depth and the top teams are not as good as in the CUSA. Second I think our backcourt is stronger than that years by a wide margin. Sloan was playing hurt, as was Perry. Polk with Drejaj backing him up will be a decent point I think better than that years team. The talent on the wings is at least comparable if Lisch is healthy. I really am convinced now that Liddell is an impact freshman. I also am convinced Vouyoukas will have his way with the A-10 big men. They have some returning guys with gaudy statistics in the post but all these guys are built like JJ. Vouyoukas at 270 has a combination of skills that the A-10 just doesn't have. Guys as big as him are total stiffs, and guys as talented are much smaller. I see 16-17 wins with a .500 record in conference for this team.

[jjray]

There are so many question-marks its too early to tell. Can Tommie Liddell be an impact player as freshman? Will he develop a scorer's mentality? It's possible. Lisch's health? Obi's health? Will JJ finally have a breakout year? Will Ian improve on last year and average in double figures? Will Dwayne contribute more to the offense? Will Brad let the young Bills run more than past years?

The only thing I know for sure is that we'll defend. I'm currently expecting 500 but there are so many variables out there that anything could happen. If all the above issues break in our favor, then I really like our potential for next season. By the same token, next year could end up grim again ... I don't even want to think about that possibility.

[SluSignGuy]

This is the first season I think in my entire billiken fandom that I could see us winning 10 games or 20+.....Odds are it will be somewhere in between, but I really have no idea what to expect.

Ian will be the BIGGEST factor IMO about our A10 record. Liddell, Lisch, Polk, Brown, Meyer, etc may be great guards, but the A10 has a lot of great guards too. Very few great big men.

God I cannot wait to see Pops v. Ian. That will a BATTLE. (For you guys who haven't seen Pops, he is probably one of the most fun Basketball players I have ever watched). Pops is everything you would dream JJ to be but better and Ian is the classic BIG man who is showing lots of promise and growth.

[slu72]

It's way too early, but what the hey...At this time I can't see us getting more than 12-13 wins due to inexperience. This is going to be a team struggling to find itself. We don't have a proven leader, scorer, or go to guy. And have a whole bunch of guys who are basically in their intern stage who will be learning on the job. It would be nice if we had a Marque or Mo Jeffers type who was a senior this year. Someone to part some player knowledge to the younth. To go further than 12-13 wins the following has to happen: IV asserts himself as a dominant player, TL proves to be an impact frosh, KL is fully recovered, we get decent consistent play at the 4 from JJ, VN, or OI. But let's not lose hope, Dayton put a very youg team on the floor last year and finished with 18 wins. For those of you saying the A-10 is a lot weaker than CUSA, I respectfully disagree. Granted they may not have the UL's and UC's of the world, but with the exception of maybe Duquense and LaSalle no game can be considered a lock.

[Basketbill]

" Jason Edwin, Chris Sloan, and Floyd McClain were freshmen"

I think this is the key to this whole team. Edwin, McClain and Sloan are replaced by Kevin, Tommy, and Obi. Moreover, when have we ever had two talented recruiting classe back to back. I hope for the best but am still licking my wounds from last year.

[Iggy]

I think we'll be really good in '06 - '07. Ian will be a dominant senior and our new studs will all have a year of experience with the system and each other. This season is a stepping stone to next season and will be a heck of a lot of fun watching the team develop regardless of the record.

[Blue and White pride]

I think that the team is going to surprise a lot of you. Unfortunately, the team, from top to bottom was thrown into the fire last season. I truly believe that the team will be at least a .500 team. With Ian coming back from playing all summer and Bryce developing over this summer the team will be pretty good. The guards that you have to worry about are the new ones. There will be a transition period in the early part of the season before they are used to playing at the level that they are, but most importantly to Brad system. Points to Brad mean nothing it is straight Defense. With not knowing who we are going to play in the beginning of the year hopefully it will take only a couple of cupcake games for the new guards to get adjusted.

Probably the most important thing SLU has to worry about for them to be successful is that they have an injury free year.

[Major Majerus]

Respectfully disagree. We have backcourt experience; if the new guys can break in, then we shouldn't be giving anything up. The consensus on the board is that Liddell and Lisch will crack the starting lineup. We have experience in the front court; will they produce is the question. In no way can we compare this team to Grawer's 5-23 team. While they had a ton of inexperienced talent, they also had some disruptive influences, not the least of which was giving a great athlete the point where he was clearly out of place. I'm expecting more, right now. If not, then I'll be patient. One more thing - to call Liddell inexperienced to D-1 ball is wrong; he won't miss a beat, IMO.

[Box and Won]

I don't know what to think. On one hand, we have an inexperienced backcourt, but on the other hand, we've all seen teams led by younger players that have performed at a high level. I'm inclined to think that Liddell will adjust to the college game a little quicker than Lisch will due to his prep school experience, and that we'll see improved play from Polk, Meyer and Brown. If we get solid play from Newborne and JJ and anything from Husak, we could be tough.

I'm really looking forward to seeing how the team progresses as the season goes on. Hopefully, we won't dig ourselves a deep hole in non-conference play.

[slu72]

Hope you're right as everyone here does. But one of our big question marks is the #4. We played there last year with virtually 0 production and we only need someone to be an average #4. If we don't get it that's going to put a lot of pressure on IV to play a stellar inside game. Then it's a matter of how quickly TL and KL adapt. I don't think anyone is saying KL is a lock to start, in fact, I would be surprised if he starts over DB or DP simply because of UB's faith in the experience factor. This will give him some time to adjust to the rigors of D1 ball. Would agree TL got some valuable experience last year, but still it's not D1 level. It's like the days when we had freshman teams. Big difference playing against guys 3-4 years older who know the tricks of the trade and have been through the meat grinder for 2-3 years.

[billiken_roy]

dont underestimate the training the lisch family does year round. rusty has been to the mountaintop both with notre dame and the nfl and you can rest assured he has conveyed in every way possible to his children what is needed to succeed. stephanie, the oldest, started from day one at indiana state and never performed like any typical freshmen. imo, kevin is even further along in the readiness journey.

[davidnark]

I respectfully disagree. College basketball is no longer a sport dominated by upperclassmen. Many of the top 25 teams are led by freshmen and sophomores. In addition, our top incoming freshmen--Tommie Liddell--had a fabulous year playing point guard on a team that had almost a dozen D1 players. He spent all of last year playing very well against a similar caliber of competition. I would be shocked if Tommie struggled to adjust to the college level immediately.

We are also forgetting one important thing: Brad is one hell of a coach. He was a win or two away from making the big dance his first two years. The talent, particular in the backcourt, is much, much deeper and better than it was on eithe of those teams. On top of this, our conference is weaker than it was either of those two seasons.

For the above reasons, I will be very disappointed if we don't have at least 17 wins this season.

[billiken_roy]

imo, our "unknowns" lisch and liddell, will be our best players. add that to the continued maturity of the returning players and we will have at least a 500 record. if we have an achilles heel it will be the inside play. ian and pf to be named are our difference makers.

[SShoe]

The biggest question in my mind is who will step up down the stretch this year. If someone (tommie or dwayne?) can be our go to guy with the game on the line and can win the close ball games we'll be okay. If not, we may struggle a little. Last year, we were about 10 pts away from being around .500. Hopefully this year one of the youngsters will be able to step up and be the go-to guy.

[slufanskip]

One of the problems is the people who are concentrating on last year are looking at the overall record ... not the last 10 games or so. At the end we played much better.

Add Tommie who I think will step in and be very good almost immediately and that is a major plus. Also I think VN will give much more than last year, we have seen plenty of JUCO players make big strides from their jr to sr years. Dwayne was playing much better at the end of the season and there is no reason not to believe he will be better this season than he was at the end. IV will be one of the better centers in the A-10. I see 13-14 wins as a minnimum and won't be surprised to see us finish a few over 500.

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[Scoop]

I'm as optimistic as they come. A .500 year is what we're probably looking at. Iowa, Zags, @UNC, @Ole Miss, SIU, @Hawaii, @UWM -- The Bills have to win three of these to go .500.

All in all a great building year for a tourney run next year.

The guards will be fine with a few growing pains. Hopefully Ian keeps developing. This year is all about the 4. "Hey JJ, ball up bro. We need ya!"

[Quality Is Job 1]

Hmm. I thought Izik Ohanon, with the most total points and rebounds, had a pretty good season. Sure, he wasn't all-league, but you can't say "zero production"! Or did you mean we have zero production returning at the four?

[Cowboy]

1-we develop some team chemistry before Christmas- the ability to blend the 3 talented fresh (I hope OI is able to make it 3) with the rest of the squad that had a disappointing record last year

2-we develop more than one proven,consistent scorer by the end of the year- I don't care as long as it is anyone other than AD (since he will be gone the following year). So if it takes until the last 10 games, 2 players in those last 10 games averaging over 15 points per game

3-UB shows a bit of restraint on the bench, ie no more temper tantrums (I just don't like it)

4-we get production from IV and BH, so between the two of them 36 min, 16 pts, 9 rebs, 6 fouls made and 7 fouls against, 2 blocks, 2 assists over the course of the entire season (I say 6 fouls and IV better not get 5 regularly)and we make other teams match up to us versus us matching up to them in this spot

5-we get and stay healthy

-this scenario to me doesn't hurt recruiting for the following year and we start building a consistent top 30 program as I think 06-07 should shape up as a 20+ win season if these are met

[Major Majerus]

I don't think you can compare Liddell's prep experience to the old type collegiate freshman team - most of those guys didn't go on whereas everyone at his prep was going D1. Secondly, he's banging heads with Darius Miles and other local players home for the summer over at West Pine.