The Wiz Posted January 5 Posted January 5 I don't usually do updates once conference starts but this seemed like a good time to do one for a few reasons... 1. I am snowed in....2. There have been a few upsets (I use the word upset lightly in this case) 3. I have some interesting Vegas news. First the big news yesterday was the whupping of Day by GW. This actually was an upset (beating a team 2 letter grades ahead of you) and doing it convincingly. There were some prognosticators who thought Dayton might go undefeated in A10 play. And while many still think Day is the class of the conference, the word is they can be beaten on any given day. As for the Bills we had a great win over St. J. I currently have us at B-. Since the start of the season, I have talked about the concept of gelling....where a team comes together and plays like one fully functioning unit both on offense and defense. In the beginning , I said we look like we have potential but we need to gel. And then as the season progressed we seemed to drift. It was after the GC game that the computer started to flash a slow green. A signal that the team was starting to gel. The signal got stronger after the win over St. J , a good A10 team. So we have had 2 convincing wins ...have we gelled? The computer says not yet but we are close. The computer has set the "gel target" at grade B. When we reach that level, we will not only have gelled but we will then be in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the A10. It won't be a smooth road. I haven't started the St. B game yet but the computer has already told me that it is picking St. B in a close game AND that if we play like we did against St. J we can beat St. B. When I say "like we played against St. J", I am not talking about just stats and slash lines but style of play...a fast, up tempo, aggressive style of play. It was this kind of play that threw St. J off their game. When they pressed us ...it slowed things down and allowed St. J to close the gap. We will talk more about this in the spread thread later on. For those that are wondering what B- coverts to in a ranking system...the answer is 118. The point of the grading system is to get away from the micro of ranking teams and convert it into a system where like teams are grouped together...in my system there is virtually no difference between teams with the same grade. Which brings me to the next point. I have a friend who works at a major sports book in Vegas. He told me about the Vegas "base" book. This is their program which picks the teams they think will win. Not the one the public sees, but what the actual outcome should be BEFORE the betting begins. Once the betting starts, it is the law of supply and demand which pushes the spread up and down. In addition they rank teams and conferences too.. before betting. They currently have the A10 ranked as 8th. He sent me a copy of the A10 rankings by team. I commented how the teams are really bunched together and that it looks like we are moving toward parity. in addition, once the teams are closer together in rankings you can move up and down quicker in those rankings from game to game. He said I was spot on and that it wasn't just the A10 but all conferences are seeing that parity. Each conference is forming their own similar bubble from the Southwestern conference to the SEC where there is much less difference between number 1 team in the conference and the bottom feeder.. With that in mind, I took the data he sent me and turned it into a report card below. You will note my card and Vegas's card look very different but the parity shines through on both cards ...Vegas even more than mine...Let's take a look... ................................The Wiz.........................................................Vegas 1....St. B......A.....NCAA...85%..NIT... 90%..............................Day....A-....NCAA...72%...90% 2...Day.......B+....NCAA..50%...NIT...90%...............................VCU...B+...NCAA...49%...90% 3...RI..........B+....NIT....82%.....................................................SLU....B................................ 4...VCU......B+....NIT....74%.....................................................St. J....B.............................. 5...GM.......B..............................................................................GM.....B 6...GW.......B...............................................................................Loy....B 7...Dav......B................................................................................Dav...B- 8...SLU.....B-...............................................................................St. B..B- 9..St. J.....B-................................................................................RI......B- 10...Duq...C+...............................................................................GW....B- 11...Loy....C+...............................................................................UMas..B- 12...LaS...C+................................................................................LaS....C+ 13...Fham..C.................................................................................Fham..C+ 14...RIch.....D+...............................................................................Duq...C+ 15...UMass...D................................................................................Rich....C A couple of notes...On the Vegas side, SLU is already a B and competing for a top 4 spot. I asked my Vegas friend about the fact that St. B and RI seemed low ranked at 8/9 and he said all they have to do is move up 1 step from B- to B and they are competing for a top 4 spot. Finally, there is this from Linardi....He has The Bills down as a bid stealer. And the season continues to unfold... Adman, MusicCityBilliken, Bay Area Billiken and 1 other 4 Quote
Old guy Posted January 5 Posted January 5 29 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I don't usually do updates once conference starts but this seemed like a good time to do one for a few reasons... 1. I am snowed in....2. There have been a few upsets (I use the word upset lightly in this case) 3. I have some interesting Vegas news. First the big news yesterday was the whupping of Day by GW. This actually was an upset (beating a team 2 letter grades ahead of you) and doing it convincingly. There were some prognosticators who thought Dayton might go undefeated in A10 play. And while many still think Day is the class of the conference, the word is they can be beaten on any given day. As for the Bills we had a great win over St. J. I currently have us at B-. Since the start of the season, I have talked about the concept of gelling....where a team comes together and plays like one fully functioning unit both on offense and defense. In the beginning , I said we look like we have potential but we need to gel. And then as the season progressed we seemed to drift. It was after the GC game that the computer started to flash a slow green. A signal that the team was starting to gel. The signal got stronger after the win over St. J , a good A10 team. So we have had 2 convincing wins ...have we gelled? The computer says not yet but we are close. The computer has set the "gel target" at grade B. When we reach that level, we will not only have gelled but we will then be in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the A10. It won't be a smooth road. I haven't started the St. B game yet but the computer has already told me that it is picking St. B in a close game AND that if we play like we did against St. J we can beat St. B. When I say "like we played against St. J", I am not talking about just stats and slash lines but style of play...a fast, up tempo, aggressive style of play. It was this kind of play that threw St. J off their game. When they pressed us ...it slowed things down and allowed St. J to close the gap. We will talk more about this in the spread thread later on. For those that are wondering what B- coverts to in a ranking system...the answer is 118. The point of the grading system is to get away from the micro of ranking teams and convert it into a system where like teams are grouped together...in my system there is virtually no difference between teams with the same grade. Which brings me to the next point. I have a friend who works at a major sports book in Vegas. He told me about the Vegas "base" book. This is their program which picks the teams they think will win. Not the one the public sees, but what the actual outcome should be BEFORE the betting begins. Once the betting starts, it is the law of supply and demand which pushes the spread up and down. In addition they rank teams and conferences too.. before betting. They currently have the A10 ranked as 8th. He sent me a copy of the A10 rankings by team. I commented how the teams are really bunched together and that it looks like we are moving toward parity. in addition, once the teams are closer together in rankings you can move up and down quicker in those rankings from game to game. He said I was spot on and that it wasn't just the A10 but all conferences are seeing that parity. Each conference is forming their own similar bubble from the Southwestern conference to the SEC where there is much less difference between number 1 team in the conference and the bottom feeder.. With that in mind, I took the data he sent me and turned it into a report card below. You will note my card and Vegas's card look very different but the parity shines through on both cards ...Vegas even more than mine...Let's take a look... ................................The Wiz.........................................................Vegas 1....St. B......A.....NCAA...85%..NIT... 90%..............................Day....A-....NCAA...72%...90% 2...Day.......B+....NCAA..50%...NIT...90%...............................VCU...B+...NCAA...49%...90% 3...RI..........B+....NIT....82%.....................................................SLU....B................................ 4...VCU......B+....NIT....74%.....................................................St. J....B.............................. 5...GM.......B..............................................................................GM.....B 6...GW.......B...............................................................................Loy....B 7...Dav......B................................................................................Dav...B- 8...SLU.....B-...............................................................................St. B..B- 9..St. J.....B-................................................................................RI......B- 10...Duq...C+...............................................................................GW....B- 11...Loy....C+...............................................................................UMas..B- 12...LaS...C+................................................................................LaS....C+ 13...Fham..C.................................................................................Fham..C+ 14...RIch.....D+...............................................................................Duq...C+ 15...UMass...D................................................................................Rich....C A couple of notes...On the Vegas side, SLU is already a B and competing for a top 4 spot. I asked my Vegas friend about the fact that St. B and RI seemed low ranked at 8/9 and he said all they have to do is move up 1 step from B- to B and they are competing for a top 4 spot. Finally, there is this from Linardi....He has The Bills down as a bid stealer. And the season continues to unfold... Great information. I must say that it is absolutely necessary for the betting business to have their own private ranking system used as a base to open up to the choices made by the betting public. I am very happy that we seem to be gelling and may become capable of going higher than we are in the A10. That is what I saw in the X clip of Schertz and the team's play posted by Hoosier pal in another thread. Let's hope the trend continues where it is heading. Go Bills! Quote
Fraz Posted January 5 Posted January 5 It’s nice that there is still upside in your model after the St J game. If we aren’t all the way gelled yet, we could be serious come March The Wiz 1 Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 5 Posted January 5 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: I don't usually do updates once conference starts but this seemed like a good time to do one for a few reasons... 1. I am snowed in....2. There have been a few upsets (I use the word upset lightly in this case) 3. I have some interesting Vegas news. First the big news yesterday was the whupping of Day by GW. This actually was an upset (beating a team 2 letter grades ahead of you) and doing it convincingly. There were some prognosticators who thought Dayton might go undefeated in A10 play. And while many still think Day is the class of the conference, the word is they can be beaten on any given day. As for the Bills we had a great win over St. J. I currently have us at B-. Since the start of the season, I have talked about the concept of gelling....where a team comes together and plays like one fully functioning unit both on offense and defense. In the beginning , I said we look like we have potential but we need to gel. And then as the season progressed we seemed to drift. It was after the GC game that the computer started to flash a slow green. A signal that the team was starting to gel. The signal got stronger after the win over St. J , a good A10 team. So we have had 2 convincing wins ...have we gelled? The computer says not yet but we are close. The computer has set the "gel target" at grade B. When we reach that level, we will not only have gelled but we will then be in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the A10. It won't be a smooth road. I haven't started the St. B game yet but the computer has already told me that it is picking St. B in a close game AND that if we play like we did against St. J we can beat St. B. When I say "like we played against St. J", I am not talking about just stats and slash lines but style of play...a fast, up tempo, aggressive style of play. It was this kind of play that threw St. J off their game. When they pressed us ...it slowed things down and allowed St. J to close the gap. We will talk more about this in the spread thread later on. For those that are wondering what B- coverts to in a ranking system...the answer is 118. The point of the grading system is to get away from the micro of ranking teams and convert it into a system where like teams are grouped together...in my system there is virtually no difference between teams with the same grade. Which brings me to the next point. I have a friend who works at a major sports book in Vegas. He told me about the Vegas "base" book. This is their program which picks the teams they think will win. Not the one the public sees, but what the actual outcome should be BEFORE the betting begins. Once the betting starts, it is the law of supply and demand which pushes the spread up and down. In addition they rank teams and conferences too.. before betting. They currently have the A10 ranked as 8th. He sent me a copy of the A10 rankings by team. I commented how the teams are really bunched together and that it looks like we are moving toward parity. in addition, once the teams are closer together in rankings you can move up and down quicker in those rankings from game to game. He said I was spot on and that it wasn't just the A10 but all conferences are seeing that parity. Each conference is forming their own similar bubble from the Southwestern conference to the SEC where there is much less difference between number 1 team in the conference and the bottom feeder.. With that in mind, I took the data he sent me and turned it into a report card below. You will note my card and Vegas's card look very different but the parity shines through on both cards ...Vegas even more than mine...Let's take a look... ................................The Wiz.........................................................Vegas 1....St. B......A.....NCAA...85%..NIT... 90%..............................Day....A-....NCAA...72%...90% 2...Day.......B+....NCAA..50%...NIT...90%...............................VCU...B+...NCAA...49%...90% 3...RI..........B+....NIT....82%.....................................................SLU....B................................ 4...VCU......B+....NIT....74%.....................................................St. J....B.............................. 5...GM.......B..............................................................................GM.....B 6...GW.......B...............................................................................Loy....B 7...Dav......B................................................................................Dav...B- 8...SLU.....B-...............................................................................St. B..B- 9..St. J.....B-................................................................................RI......B- 10...Duq...C+...............................................................................GW....B- 11...Loy....C+...............................................................................UMas..B- 12...LaS...C+................................................................................LaS....C+ 13...Fham..C.................................................................................Fham..C+ 14...RIch.....D+...............................................................................Duq...C+ 15...UMass...D................................................................................Rich....C A couple of notes...On the Vegas side, SLU is already a B and competing for a top 4 spot. I asked my Vegas friend about the fact that St. B and RI seemed low ranked at 8/9 and he said all they have to do is move up 1 step from B- to B and they are competing for a top 4 spot. Finally, there is this from Linardi....He has The Bills down as a bid stealer. And the season continues to unfold... This is a great post, Wiz, very informative. Thank you for posting. I think SLU is now trending upward. There is real hope for this season. I'm a lot more interested in the Billikens and the A10 than in these NFL games in the background involving pretenders vying for the final playoff slots, aka cannon fodder. Quote
The Wiz Posted January 5 Author Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said: This is a great post, Wiz, very informative. Thank you for posting. I think SLU is now trending upward. There is real hope for this season. I'm a lot more interested in the Billikens and the A10 than in these NFL games in the background involving pretenders vying for the final playoff slots, aka cannon fodder. This next game against St. B is a big one . I hope we have a good crowd. A close game is forecast with a slight edge to St. B. Of course, we have our new secret weapon when the opponent is shooting FTs...The Air Dance Wacky Waving Inflatable Tube Man from the mattress store parking lot who hovers over the top of the backboard when the opposing team is at the charity stripe. St. J is a good shooting FT team (B+) and their numbers were down for the game...83% when down at the other end of the court and 67% when facing Tube guy. Could be just a coincidence but.... I can smell the gell... Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 5 Posted January 5 58 minutes ago, The Wiz said: This next game against St. B is a big one . I hope we have a good crowd. A close game is forecast with a slight edge to St. B. Of course, we have our new secret weapon when the opponent is shooting FTs...The Air Dance Wacky Waving Inflatable Tube Man from the mattress store parking lot who hovers over the top of the backboard when the opposing team is at the charity stripe. St. J is a good shooting FT team (B+) and their numbers were down for the game...83% when down at the other end of the court and 67% when facing Tube guy. Could be just a coincidence but.... I can smell the gell... The Inflatable Tube Man has provided solid, cutting edge, free throw defense. I did an early review of the Bonnies (14-1, 2-0, NET 52, now best in the A10). As usual, Schmidt primarily plays only 7 players, sometimes 6. The starting 5 are all transfers. Schmidt has made hay with JUCO's and D-1 transfers. St. Bona has 5 players averaging in double figures and a 6th averaging 8.3 ppg. Quote
White Pelican Posted January 5 Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said: How long will SLU be allowed to have the Inflatable Tube Man wreaking havoc before some higher authority intercedes? Don't mess up our groove thing, solid free throw defense. I did an early review of the Bonnies. (14-1, 2-0). As usual, Schmidt primarily plays only 7 players, sometimes 6. The starting 5 are all transfers. Schmidt has made hay with JUCO's and D-1 transfers. St. Bona has 5 players averaging in double figures and a 6th averaging 8.3 ppg. We were discussing that very thing in our section when the Tube Guy made his appearance. What with the hubcaps and now the Tube, I thought maybe they were selling used cars over there. almaman 1 Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 5 Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, White Pelican said: We were discussing that very thing in our section when the Tube Guy made his appearance. What with the hubcaps and now the Tube, I thought maybe they were selling used cars over there. Whatever it takes, White Pelican, whatever it takes … We need to take the Tube and hubcaps on the road, to the A10 Tourney. The Bona, Dayton, URI and VCU fans might collectively spontaneously combust. Quote
Crewsorlose Posted January 5 Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said: The Inflatable Tube Man has provided solid, cutting edge, free throw defense. I did an early review of the Bonnies (14-1, 2-0, NET 52, now best in the A10). As usual, Schmidt primarily plays only 7 players, sometimes 6. The starting 5 are all transfers. Schmidt has made hay with JUCO's and D-1 transfers. St. Bona has 5 players averaging in double figures and a 6th averaging 8.3 ppg. Bonaventure will be a good test but the real test will be VCU on the road. In other words, if SLU loses to Bonaventure at home, I doubt they're a top 4 team. If they lose to VCU on the road in a non-blowout, I can chalk that up to being one of the three toughest games they play all A-10. Quote
Lord Elrond Posted January 6 Posted January 6 1 hour ago, White Pelican said: We were discussing that very thing in our section when the Tube Guy made his appearance. What with the hubcaps and now the Tube, I thought maybe they were selling used cars over there. If it takes an inflatable tube man to win, then I’m good with that. Quote
Billfan7 Posted January 6 Posted January 6 3 hours ago, Billikenbooster said: Have we ever won at VCU? No and these stats are pretty ugly... https://slubillikens.com/sports/mens-basketball/opponent-history/virginia-commonwealth-university/407 Quote
CenHudDude Posted January 6 Posted January 6 8 hours ago, BLIKNS said: So we are due I would say overdue. BLIKNS 1 Quote
Bay Area Billiken Posted January 6 Posted January 6 https://x.com/studurando/status/1876313537100095530?s=46&t=jikm5nKg-NlIUjy2c9C9zw Phillip Russell leads the A10 in scoring. Quote
The Wiz Posted January 6 Author Posted January 6 17 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said: https://x.com/studurando/status/1876313537100095530?s=46&t=jikm5nKg-NlIUjy2c9C9zw Phillip Russell leads the A10 in scoring. I liked him when he was here. I thought he always looked good in practice. Quote
The Wiz Posted Monday at 04:33 AM Author Posted Monday at 04:33 AM Well, another 8 games under the belt... and things have tighten up even more since the first report . Let's look at the A-10 report card...the mid term... The listing of the teams is based on the their grade ranking followed by their conf standing.... VCU....B+....2-1 Day.....B+....1-2 SLU....B....3-0 GM.....B.....3-1 St. J....B.....3-2 St. B...B......2-2 Loy.....B......1-2 ______________________ Dav.......B-....2-1 GW.......B-.....2-1 RI..........B-....2-2 UMass..B-.....1-3 Duq......C+....2-1 LaS.......C+....1-3 Rich......C......2-2 Fham....C......0-4 A few observations.... You will note there are no post season predictions at this point. The computer sees the A10 as a 1 bid league for now. There is no team at this time that is showing at least a 50% chance to make the Dance ...which means it is a wide open race. It also means that a top 4 finish is even more important. The Top 4 race You can there is a line between teams 7 and 8. The teams that are above the line have the best chance of making the top 4 and of course we lead the top 4 race with a 3-0 record. The teams below the demarcation line are considered less likely to be a top 4 team given their grade and conf record. Teams most likely to swap places ...Dav and Loy. As for the Bills, we are looking good for now. Assuming GM is the 4th team in, then that leaves 3 teams directly behind us that could be in the running at this point AND we have already beaten 2 of them. The 3rd team Loy is hanging on by a thread. With all this said , you don't have to be an analyst to know that the next game is a big one...bigger for VCU than for us. If we win the VCU game, we are in the catbird seat. If we lose then we are still in the thick of things. If VCU loses they will drop back to a grade of B and then just be another team above the line trying to hang on. Bottom line....No champagne cork popping yet...We are about 17% of the way though the conf schedule. A lot of tough games coming up. Another take away from the above chart is because of parity, we will not be favored in many of the away games...which will also be true for the other A10 teams. Best advice ...stay present and take one game at a time. Go Bills Adman, joe_davola, Billikenbooster and 1 other 4 Quote
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