The Bills over Santa Clara by 1

[The Wiz]

Overview

Looks like we will start the year with a bang. This will be a tough game. As I mentioned in the Billiken preseason review,  this would be a perfect game for the Bills to play in Dec. after we had a few games under our belt.  We will have to go from 0-60 quickly to win this game.  I have both teams grading out as a B to start the season.  One big difference between The Bills and SC is that the Broncos have 12 returning players. This was a team that beat Gonzaga last year. They have 9 players who are 6'7" or taller including a  7'1 & 7'0 player.   They were 20-13 last year and are better this year with some additions...Preseason All WCC player Stewart who returns to SC after a year at LSU. He was  All WCC when he left 2 years ago.  ...Bal who is coming back to SC after trying out for the NBA draft....another All WCC..... plus Mahi a JC transfer who was a Calif player of the year where his team went 33-0.  Pundits think this is the year SC goes to the Dance...no small statement considering they haven't been since 1996.

What does all this mean...It means we have our job cut out for us. But as you see from the title of this thread this game is winnable. 

What We Need To Do To Win...hereafter referred to as  WWN2D2W.....

Target slash...53/37/78.....We need to make some shots...The computer is planning on us making some shots which is why it has us winning. ..

Win the TO battle...SC is vulnerable to the TO...we need to pressure them and take care of the ball.

Hold Stewart and Bal to 24 pts....In his last season at SC, Stewart shot 40% from the arc....Bal (6'7 guard) was SC's leading scorer last year.

Score 80pts....This is a game of 2 offensive teams...the winner may be the last team to score.

Bottom line

I think most prognosticators will pick SC to win. They will be looking at last year's mirror records.....SC 20-13 ...SLU 13-20....But it is a new year...Let's prove it by giving the Broncos a rough ride.

[Bay Area Billiken]

ESPN.com has Santa Clara -1.5, Total 158.5. 
 

CBS Sports has the line at SLU +1, o159.5. 

[SLU_Nick]

Game one.  Must win for an at large.

[Wendelprof]

Wiz,

You wrote "this game is winnable" - but isn't each game winnable if the ball bounces the right way?  Does your computer model give the chances of us winning it?  If we played them 10 times, does the computer think we'd win all 10 games?  

I agree with you that this is very tough game to open the season.  They are a veteran team that returns all their key pieces.  We are a new team stiil seeing how well our pieces mesh. I think it is a great first game because it will show us how much work we need to do to become the team we want to be, but I'd be surprised if we come out of the gate ready to beat a team like Santa Clara.  As you wrote, maybe in December, or after the conference tournament, but not out of the gate.  And that isn't taking into consideration Avila's rust and any lingering effects from his injury.  I hope you are right, but I'm not ready to drink the blue kool-aid this early in the season.

[WUH]

Looks like the game is free on YouTube so that is cool:

 

[HoosierPal]

 

@GoodmanHoops·

3h

 

Saint Louis guard Kobe Johnson (shoulder) is a game-time decision for tomorrow’s game against Santa Clara, Josh Schertz told

@TheFieldOf68. Johnson injured his shoulder in practice yesterday.

 

[The Wiz]

10 hours ago, Wendelprof said:

Wiz,

You wrote "this game is winnable" - but isn't each game winnable if the ball bounces the right way?  Does your computer model give the chances of us winning it?  If we played them 10 times, does the computer think we'd win all 10 games?  

I agree with you that this is very tough game to open the season.  They are a veteran team that returns all their key pieces.  We are a new team stiil seeing how well our pieces mesh. I think it is a great first game because it will show us how much work we need to do to become the team we want to be, but I'd be surprised if we come out of the gate ready to beat a team like Santa Clara.  As you wrote, maybe in December, or after the conference tournament, but not out of the gate.  And that isn't taking into consideration Avila's rust and any lingering effects from his injury.  I hope you are right, but I'm not ready to drink the blue kool-aid this early in the season.

Sorry didn't mean to seem like we were a long shot to win  this game. I used the term "winnable" because most oddsmakers have us as 1.5 underdogs.  To answer your question....yes, the computer model gives us  a 51% chance to win.   If we played Santa Clara 100 games we would win 51 times.  Again this will not be an easy game but I will take the win by 1 over the bookies  having us lose by 1.5 . As I mentioned in the original post, the winner of this game may be the last team to score. 

 

[Old guy]

First real (non exhibition) game of the season. Vegas line favors SC (ranked at 94 by TR) to win by 1.4. We will find out tomorrow how out team (ranked at 117 ty TR) performs. SC has much better stats than we do, but our stats (being basically a newly formed team) have no prior performance stats in D1.

[almaman]

1 hour ago, Old guy said:

First real (non exhibition) game of the season. Vegas line favors SC (ranked at 94 by TR) to win by 1.4. We will find out tomorrow how out team (ranked at 117 ty TR) performs. SC has much better stats than we do, but our stats (being basically a newly formed team) have no prior performance stats in D1.

AnonI?

[Old guy]

7 hours ago, almaman said:

AnonI?

In case you do not understand SC with 12 returning players has valid stats about team performance from last year, SLU has no valid team performance stats from last year. This will be our first real DI game. Any ranking this early in the season by of our team's expected performance is guesswork, based upon individual stats from the prior season. The Bills have no prior stats playing as a team.

[The Wiz]

Here is the injury report released this morning.......     Injuries   Player   Status/Updated Notes Kobe Johnson G Ques Mon - Shoulder - 11/4/24 Johnson is nursing a shoulder injury, and it remains to be seen if he will return to action against the Broncos on Monday. Josiah Dotzler G Ques Nov 4 - Foot - 10/23/24 Dotzler is hampered by a foot injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Broncos on November 4th. Dylan Warlick F Ques Nov 4 - Undisclosed - 10/23/24 Warlick is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against the Broncos on November 4th.

[RiseOfTheBillikens]

17 turnovers. Wiz is going to have a field day. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

11 minutes ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

17 turnovers. Wiz is going to have a field day. 

And too many of them were unforced.  One would think those can be corrected. 

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, RiseOfTheBillikens said:

17 turnovers. Wiz is going to have a field day. 

You are right ...I am going to have a field day and I am not happy about it.  But first let's talk about the game in general.

I think this game clears up the meaning I used in the open post about the word "winnable". A game you could have won but didn't.   First, there are the things the computer can't predict and that we have no control over.  For example the injury to Avila.  I truly believe we would have won that game had he not be injured. With 6:14 left in the game The Bills were down by 12 pts.  A minute and 38 seconds later The Bills were down by 4 in a charge to the finish line. And then Avila got hurt.  At that point in the game SC was going into a holding pattern to try and hold us off. ...slowing down the game and trading baskets. Once Avila was hurt that strategy worked as the lead stayed around 4 except for the final few seconds.

But there were other opportunities to win. Let's look at some of the numbers...

Bolded statements are from original post.

Target slash...53/37/78....actual 48/35/ 80...The computer was pretty close here ...or should I say The Bills were pretty close to the computer. To make the slash The Bills need to make 1 more 3 and 3 more 2s...Total extra pts to make the slash...3 +6= 9pts...Bills win by 2...But even though they fell slightly short...this as it turns out was not the deciding factor because the Broncos  shot 42/34/85....Some may argue that the  Santa Clara FTA did us in (twice as many as The Bills) but the computer feels there were other stronger factors that contributed to the loss...Again like injuries, referees are beyond  our control and the computer's predictions....read on

Hold Stewart and Bal to 24 pts...Again the computer was spot on...The 2 players had 26 pts...Bal had 24 pts and Stewart had 2....and it wasn't like Stewart was just standing around...He played 26 min and was 0-8.. his only 2pts came on FTs.  Remember, this guy was selected as a preseason All WCC player. Kudos to the Bills defense for shutting him down. Verdict ...not a deciding factor in the loss.

Score 80pts...Again close and might have made a difference  but  again not the deciding factor.

Rebs even...I forgot to put this in the original post...SC won the battle 37-35...another close one but not the deciding factor.

Win the TO battle... @RiseOfTheBillikens ruined my surprise ending. We lost this one 17-12. As those who follow me know, this is one of my pet peeves which was only made worse by last year's TO losses.  TOs are the dagger in the heart of wins.  This game was a good example...A lot of things went right or at least good enough to win but for the TOs .  When you give up 16 or more TOs it usually the death knoll.    The key stat I have developed is OPLTO...opportunity pts lost to TOs. This is different from the common stat of....Points off TOs. This refers to the  pts lost lost and gained by both teams as a result of TOs. For example in this game The BIlls lost the TO battle by 5 TOs ie they had 5 more TOs than SC....That means The Bills lost 5 opportunities to score and Broncos had an extra 5. ...Without going into the math, the rule of thumb  is...every extra TO is worth 2 pts. So,  if The Bills has matched the Broncos 12 TOs there would have been an extra 10 pts ...Bills advantage......SLU would have had 6 more pts and SC would have had 4 less. ...or Bills by 3.  What makes this more frustrating was pointed out by @Bay Area Billiken in that many of the TOs were unforced. Rant over

Bottom line...Interesting note by the computer...It said... had this game been played  6 weeks from now,   we would have most likely won....fewer TOs and better shooting.  In other words we would have gelled a bit more.

 

 

[Old guy]

Agree with your computer, we need to gel, we need to get comfortable playing as a team, and we need to avoid injuries. Having Avila off may help with getting the other  players get better working with one another without Avila. You really want to be the team able to win with or without any player or players.

[Lord Elrond]

Sadly @The Wiz’s computer could not teleport the Billiken team from the future back in time and have them play the game instead. Clearly, the computer needs to reach out to Dr Who and borrow the Tardis immediately to correct this problem.