The Wiz Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 7th seed (unch)....Rich....50%.......NIT chances(95%= crossover to Dance odds).......Loy...74%(dn)...UMass...54%(unch). General Outlook......... Well let's start with the good news ...We are still a C team overall which means we are an average team in the D1 universe ....but C overall makes us a bottom feeder in the A-10. In addition, we are not the worst Bills team of the century. That distinction goes to the 2014-15 Bills team which came in at D- overall. That was the good news ....The bad news is we have cratered on defense...of course you knew that. I am not here to point out the obvious. I am here to give the numbers and grades to show you how bad it is. Anyone who has been reading the spread threads and in particular the report card section has been able to watch as we trended down over the last few months. Today, we make the dishonor roll on defense with 3 Fs and a D....One data point (opp PPG) has reached F- ....a letter designation I instituted for the first time during the Crews years. We are 16th WITN on Opp PPG...a key component and indicator of overall defense....100pts?? Remember, this is the A-10 where we slow things down and try to average 70PPG. The problem is not just that the barn door is unlocked...the whole door is gone and other teams are driving a bus through it. The final good news is we probably won't drop anymore...it is hard to go down when you have reached the bottom (at least on defense). The computer suggests if you are not going to play D then maybe slow the game down to keep it close. Game preview...As I mentioned above we are currently at C overall. St. B is at B with a chance for NIT. Their offense is slightly better than ours. Their D is not as good as Day but still light years ahead of ours. Of course, as I have said before ...there is no team we can't beat in the A-10 as long as we follow The Wiz's formula for winning...Step 1...match TOs (if we don't... 80% chance for loss)....Step 2 win 1 of the following 2 categories ...FG% or Rebs....If we win one of those 2 categories, we have a 53% chance to win...if we win them both 80% chance to win the game. Last night we beat Day on TOs but then lost both categories ...the reb battle was dismal. If we forget about defense again and just try to outscore the Bonnies...we will repeat last night's game as they have 3 outstanding 3 pt shooters and a big guy down low who can put them away. One last thing...don't substitute fouling for defense as St. B is one of the best FT shooting teams ITN. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is dn....2 up 5 dn... 2 Off up and 2 Off dn and 3 Def down .................SLU..............StB................SLU......................StB ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........B-................C.....................F- 16th WITN......B+ FG%...........C+................B...................F+..........................C- 3P%...........A-.................A...................F............................B FT%...........B+................A.................................................... Reb...........D-...................D-................D+..........................A- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...FG%......Def....none Down.........Off....3P%...Reb....Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...52nd ...up St B Blks.. Venning...43rd 3P%...Adams-Woods...40th FT%...Banks...83rd Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Parker ...3/6...Shoulder...questionable Meadows....3/5...back...out for the season Curcic....2/29...foot...out for season St B.. none Keys to the Game.......Play some defense...no wide open 3s...don't foul them...get some rebounds WWN2D2W...Target slash--48/38/76.....Beat them on FG%......Beat them on TOs...and in Rebs...Hold their top 2 scores to 25pts...keep StB to 33% from the arc...Keep them under 80 pts. Bottom line.........Grab a rebound....play some D...make some shots ...and we can beat St. B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Wiz. And this is no disrespect for your computer but if I took the openent on your spreads would I be a rich man? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 YOU FINALLY CALLED THE F-, WIZ. For our defense this year we will need F-- (F double minus) to account for how bad this defense is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, willie said: Wiz. And this is no disrespect for your computer but if I took the openent on your spreads would I be a rich man? You would be sent to the portal and left with nil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 -3 F's and a D and I'm not sure it's low enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 4 hours ago, The Wiz said: You would be sent to the portal and left with nil. So how did the Bills do against your spread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 19 minutes ago, willie said: So how did the Bills do against your spread? I look at the spread a little different than most fans. To me the spread is a diagnostic tool. Each game the computer takes all the data and analyzes it and says ..this is what the Bills are supposed to do. If they come within a few points of the spread , they are doing what they are supposed to be doing. If like last night, they underperform, it could mean they had an off night or the other team had an above average game. If it happens over a series of games, then it is a trend and you need to take action/ change things up. If it happens over a season, then it shows there are some serious issues and major changes are needed. Using the computer as a diagnostic tool it is supposed to keep humans out of the insanity loop...where you keep doing the same thing and hoping for different results. I laugh when every year as soon as there is a miss by the computer on a game, posters come on the board and say fire the computer or it doesn't know what it is doing. If the computer forecast that flipping a coin 10 times would come out as 5 heads and 5 tails and the result was 10 heads...there would be an outcry on the board (and you know who the posters would be)..."get rid of the computer ". The computer points out the problem....It is up to the humans to figure out what changes need to made. Don't kill the messenger/computer ...fix the issues. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 2 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I look at the spread a little different than most fans. To me the spread is a diagnostic tool. Each game the computer takes all the data and analyzes it and says ..this is what the Bills are supposed to do. If they come within a few points of the spread , they are doing what they are supposed to be doing. If like last night, they underperform, it could mean they had an off night or the other team had an above average game. If it happens over a series of games, then it is a trend and you need to take action/ change things up. If it happens over a season, then it shows there are some serious issues and major changes are needed. Using the computer as a diagnostic tool it is supposed to keep humans out of the insanity loop...where you keep doing the same thing and hoping for different results. I laugh when every year as soon as there is a miss by the computer on a game, posters come on the board and say fire the computer or it doesn't know what it is doing. If the computer forecast that flipping a coin 10 times would come out as 5 heads and 5 tails and the result was 10 heads...there would be an outcry on the board (and you know who the posters would be)..."get rid of the computer ". The computer points out the problem....It is up to the humans to figure out what changes need to made. Don't kill the messenger/computer ...fix the issues. I am not trying to be critical. I enjoy your work. But my unsophisticated opinion is that your computer overvalued the Bills all year. Again if I took the computers line would the Bills covered more than they lost? Or put another way did the Bills underperform their expectations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: I look at the spread a little different than most fans. To me the spread is a diagnostic tool. Each game the computer takes all the data and analyzes it and says ..this is what the Bills are supposed to do. If they come within a few points of the spread , they are doing what they are supposed to be doing. If like last night, they underperform, it could mean they had an off night or the other team had an above average game. If it happens over a series of games, then it is a trend and you need to take action/ change things up. If it happens over a season, then it shows there are some serious issues and major changes are needed. Using the computer as a diagnostic tool it is supposed to keep humans out of the insanity loop...where you keep doing the same thing and hoping for different results. I laugh when every year as soon as there is a miss by the computer on a game, posters come on the board and say fire the computer or it doesn't know what it is doing. If the computer forecast that flipping a coin 10 times would come out as 5 heads and 5 tails and the result was 10 heads...there would be an outcry on the board (and you know who the posters would be)..."get rid of the computer ". The computer points out the problem....It is up to the humans to figure out what changes need to made. Don't kill the messenger/computer ...fix the issues. You are a longtime and appreciated poster with a lot of insight. The ribbing is all in good smacktalk/fun.(Maybe lack of fun this season) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, willie said: I am not trying to be critical. I enjoy your work. But my unsophisticated opinion is that your computer overvalued the Bills all year. Again if I took the computers line would the Bills covered more than they lost? Or put another way did the Bills underperform their expectations? I don't usually set things up for betting but I went back and lined up the the games with my spreads. The answer is it depends. If you remember ...at the beginning of the year, I always put a caveat about the first 8 games of the year because this is a period of collecting data and the computer isn't as accurate during data collection. I have even mentioned a few times that if people would bet on games using my spreads(of course nobody here would ever do that) (you know who you are) they should probably skip the first 8 games. So here are the results....Taking the opponent in the first 8 games, you would have won 7 lost 1. In the next 21 games your record would have been 9-10-2. So the simple answer if you waited till the computer was ready in the 9th game you would not have become a wealthy man. Should you bet the first 8 games next year ...7-1 sounds good? Probably not ...because there will still be the issue of a small data size and it could turn out to be 1-7 next year. Hope that answers your question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 The Bonnies lost to GW tonight. Does that change your spread a bit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 What GW's win over St. Bona means is that we are again tied with them at the dead bottom level of the A10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Now that we've moved on to Bona, it's time for this: JMM28, thetorch and SLU_Lax like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 7 Author Share Posted March 7 8 hours ago, billikenbill said: The Bonnies lost to GW tonight. Does that change your spread a bit? Yes...1 pt to St. B to 12. I would normally post the spread thread today after yesterday's St. B game but I had more time yesterday. The other thing that was affected was the post season chances....St. B was removed from the NIT list. Also, Rich was added to the Dance list (50%)...a gut punch to Juan...but Juan is not duan (this can be read as down or done) yet. His motto is... he will ride again. I will check the numbers again on Sat...they won't go up but there is a chance they could drop another point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettJollyComedyHour Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Richmond men's and women's teams have absolutely dominated the A-10 this year, wtf? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 3 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said: Richmond men's and women's teams have absolutely dominated the A-10 this year, wtf? So Richmond is the A10 team that has figured out the portal and NIL the best? What are they doing that other teams (notably SLU) have not done? They have 5 transfers on their team, 3 are grad students from East Tennessee State, Western Carolina, and Wofford, two more from Wagner and the Citadel. None of them are from highly regarded National powers. 5 more are freshmen. I’ve yet to hear anything substantial about their NIL spending either. Yet they have enjoyed success on the court. So what have they done right that we should look at doing, and what have we done wrong that they have avoided doing? BrettJollyComedyHour likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slu let the dogs out? Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, Box and Won said: Now that we've moved on to Bona, it's time for this: Hilarious but can someone provide a little context here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 11 hours ago, The Wiz said: I don't usually set things up for betting but I went back and lined up the the games with my spreads. The answer is it depends. If you remember ...at the beginning of the year, I always put a caveat about the first 8 games of the year because this is a period of collecting data and the computer isn't as accurate during data collection. I have even mentioned a few times that if people would bet on games using my spreads(of course nobody here would ever do that) (you know who you are) they should probably skip the first 8 games. So here are the results....Taking the opponent in the first 8 games, you would have won 7 lost 1. In the next 21 games your record would have been 9-10-2. So the simple answer if you waited till the computer was ready in the 9th game you would not have become a wealthy man. Should you bet the first 8 games next year ...7-1 sounds good? Probably not ...because there will still be the issue of a small data size and it could turn out to be 1-7 next year. Hope that answers your question Thanks. It does Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 1 hour ago, Slu let the dogs out? said: Hilarious but can someone provide a little context here? 1 hour ago, Slu let the dogs out? said: Hilarious but can someone provide a little context here? Only that Majerus constantly complained about being in the A-10, and that the trip to Olean just showed how ridiculous being in the A-10 is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slu let the dogs out? Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 17 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: Only that Majerus constantly complained about being in the A-10, and that the trip to Olean just showed how ridiculous being in the A-10 is. Got it, thanks. I wasn't sure if he had actually said some of those things or not. Wouldn't surprise me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 3 hours ago, Box and Won said: Now that we've moved on to Bona, it's time for this: Thanks for posting this. So hilarious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 3 minutes ago, Slu let the dogs out? said: Got it, thanks. I wasn't sure if he had actually said some of those things or not. Wouldn't surprise me. Some Bona fan created this years ago, and it's still one of my favorite things ever. I love how it goes from making fun of Majerus to just complaining about Boeheim and other regional gripes. I also love the way the computer voice says "SUNY Fre-do-ni-a." Slu let the dogs out? likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 11 hours ago, Old guy said: What GW's win over St. Bona means is that we are again tied with them at the dead bottom level of the A10. C’mon, give the team credit, we’ve still got the tiebreaker on them, so we’re 14th!! We’re gonna get payback on those Fordham Rams in the PIG, then the 6th seed better look out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 La Salle should lose at Loyola and Fordham should beat Rhodey. Doubt we see Fordham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 We end as we started....with defense. There was only 1 game all season that our opponent's PPG was lower and that was the 1st game of the season... So Ind. ....and of course St. B is a much tougher opponent than SOIN. In addition, we foiled the TO curse...lose the TO battle lose the game. Losing the TO battle usually spells... auto loss (80% chance to lose) How did we pull this off? Let's look at the numbers...Bolded statements from the original post.. First the pregame computer observation....The computer suggests if you are not going to play D then maybe slow the game down to keep it close...By playing D AND slowing it down instead of keeping it close ...we won. Beat them on FG%...We not only beat them on FG% but on the entire slash...keep St B to 33% from the arc...actual 32%...excellent.... St. B is one of the best FT shooting teams ITN...They were 19th ITN...shot 62%....Their report card slash line coming into the game was B / A / A...they shot F /F/ F. Defense...better late then never. Beat them in Rebs...We didn't just beat them in Rebs ...we dominated. ..43-26...great job Keep them under 80 pts...Compared to what we have been doing this would have been a good showing...65 pts is outstanding. I leave you with the wisdom of the bottom line from above.... Bottom line.........Grab a rebound....play some D...make some shots ...and we can beat St. B We did not only what it takes to overcome a TO deficit but did what it takes to beat a good offensive team Keep it up in the Big Apple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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