The Wiz Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 General Outlook.... A huge win against DQ and a big step closer to the double bye...Here is how it shakes out...We have a 3 game lead (with the tie breaker) and 4 to play. If we beat Rich on Tues. ....and then LaS @ home beats Duq, we clinch. If Duq beats LaS...then we beat Loy next Sat and clinch at home. Win and we're in. Game Preview....Richmond is a B- team ...we remain at B. Richmond is tough to beat at home....they have not played to their potential so far this season. These factors have contributed to the computer seeing this as extremely tight game with a good chance of OT. Rich is led by Tyler Burton. ..also known as the Nightmare before Richmond...wait , maybe that was Tim Burton. In any case , we need to stop Burton...He is pretty much their whole team. If he has a bad game, then Rich has a bad game. No Dou Dou for this guy. I usually don't mention the injuries because they generally don't affect the outcome of the game. In this case, because of the close nature of this game it could affect things. Nelson, a key player was injured about 10 days ago and is listed as questionable. When the computer sees questionable, it downgrades that players performance. On Tues , if Nelson can't go, then the spread should expand an additional 4 points. Still close but probably not OT close. Report Card.... Coming into this game we are up in 1 category (FG% Off ) down in 2 (3P% Off & Def)..We lost our honor roll status on offense as a result of the weak 3P shooting. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................Rich........................SLU.............................Rich .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B.......................D+.............................C-..................................B- FG%...............B+......................C-............................A-..................................C+ 3P%...............C+.....................C-.............................B-.................................C- FT%...............B-......................B.................................................................. Reb...............A........................D.............................C......................................D+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...Def.....none Down.........Off.......3P%....Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......32nd all time D1 list Assts/TO ratio...Collins...19th...dn Reb...Okoro...46th...up Blks...Okoro ...71st...up Off Reb...Okoro...26th ...up Dou Dou...Collins...57th...dn...Okoro...99th...up 3P%...Jimerson...61st...dn RICH PPG...Burton...42nd FT%...Bigelow...58th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... 2/8...Thames....Out indefinitely....undisclosed......unspecified issue with no time table to return RICH... 2/15...Nelson...ankle...questionable 2/16...Walz...undisclosed...questionable 1/25...Crabtree...fractured finger...expected return mid March Keys to the game.. . If left alone Rich can shoot 3s...if we play with the same intensity we did against DQ, Rich will shoot much less than 52%....We need to make some 3s and FTs WWN2D2W...Stop Burton...hold him to 14 pts and 6 rebs....Make the slash...46/35/75.... TOs even...Beat them on the boards by 6........Don't give them free pts by fouling Bigelow, Grace or Roche. Stay out of foul trouble. Hold them to less than 20 3P shots. ....less than 70 pts total for Rich Bottom line....Stop T Burton and keep scary things from happening.... Oh what a tangled web we weave, but no matter, we all Bill-ieve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Richmond Eye Test" This team will go as Tyler Burton goes. Burton is averaging just short of 20 ppg. The rest are nothing to write home about. Neal Quinn is the seven foot transfer from Lafayette. He is decent on the low blocks and has a game similar to Chad Venning of Bonaventure. He is not a strong rebounder, being outrebounded by Wofford transfer Isaiah Bigelow. Bigelow is a nice, athletic 6'7" four. In other words, the type of guy we have trouble with. He has not been starting however. The other three starters are fifth year senior guard Andre Gustavson, fifth year senior forward Matt Grace, and 6'5" junior guard Dji Bailey. Baily, injured as noted above, is a 5'10" freshman guard who normally spells Bailey and/or Gustavson. Jason Roche is the supposed gunner brought in via the transfer portal from the Citadel. Roche has attempted 141 total shots with 117 (79%) coming from deep. He is shooting at nearly a 40% clip from three but hasn't got fire shooting only 16 for 55 in A10 games (29%). Which means he'll go off against us. The guy hot recently was Grace. He went off for 28 and 21 in games against Geedubya and Fordham. A lot of that damage was from distance. A spot up shooter who needs some time to launch, he cannot be lost on the defensive end. Richmond does play better at home, that is true. Burton is a power forward beast ala Camara and Moore. He has been weak from distance as of late but can and will put the ball on the floor and get to the ri if his outside shot is missing. Even if Burton hits his average, stopping the rest would be key to a Billiken win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 hours ago, The Wiz said: General Outlook.... A huge win against DQ and a big step closer to the double bye...Here is how it shakes out...We have a 3 game lead (with the tie breaker) and 4 to play. If we beat Rich on Tues. ....and then LaS @ home beats Duq, we clinch. If Duq beats LaS...then we beat Loy next Sat and clinch at home. Win and we're in. Game Preview....Richmond is a B- team ...we remain at B. Richmond is tough to beat at home....they have not played to their potential so far this season. These factors have contributed to the computer seeing this as extremely tight game with a good chance of OT. Rich is led by Tyler Burton. ..also known as the Nightmare before Richmond...wait , maybe that was Tim Burton. In any case , we need to stop Burton...He is pretty much their whole team. If he has a bad game, then Rich has a bad game. No Dou Dou for this guy. I usually don't mention the injuries because they generally don't affect the outcome of the game. In this case, because of the close nature of this game it could affect things. Nelson, a key player was injured about 10 days ago and is listed as questionable. When the computer sees questionable, it downgrades that players performance. On Tues , if Nelson can't go, then the spread should expand an additional 4 points. Still close but probably not OT close. Report Card.... Coming into this game we are up in 1 category (FG% Off ) down in 2 (3P% Off & Def)..We lost our honor roll status on offense as a result of the weak 3P shooting. Let's look at the report card... ...................SLU......................Rich........................SLU.............................Rich .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B.......................D+.............................C-..................................B- FG%...............B+......................C-............................A-..................................C+ 3P%...............C+.....................C-.............................B-.................................C- FT%...............B-......................B.................................................................. Reb...............A........................D.............................C......................................D+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...Def.....none Down.........Off.......3P%....Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Assts...Collins... 1st...unch......32nd all time D1 list Assts/TO ratio...Collins...19th...dn Reb...Okoro...63rd...dn Blks...Okoro ...71st...up Off Reb...Okoro...26th ...up Dou Dou...Collins...57th...dn...Okoro...99th...up 3P%...Jimerson...61st...dn RICH PPG...Burton...42nd FT%...Bigelow...58th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... 2/8...Thames....Out indefinitely....undisclosed......unspecified issue with no time table to return RICH... 2/15...Nelson...ankle...questionable 2/16...Walz...undisclosed...questionable 1/25...Crabtree...fractured finger...expected return mid March Keys to the game.. . If left alone Rich can shoot 3s...if we play with the same intensity we did against DQ, Rich will shoot much less than 52%....We need to make some 3s and FTs WWN2D2W...Stop Burton...hold him to 14 pts and 6 rebs....Make the slash...46/35/75.... TOs even...Beat them on the boards by 6........Don't give them free pts by fouling Bigelow, Grace or Roche. Stay out of foul trouble. Hold them to less than 20 3P shots. ....less than 70 pts total for Rich Bottom line....Stop T Burton and keep scary things from happening.... Oh what a tangled web we weave, but no matter, we all Bill-ieve -Wiz, Franco has 16 rebounds, 10 defensive, and he falls in overall rebounding rank? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -Wiz, Franco has 16 rebounds, 10 defensive, and he falls in overall rebounding rank? I thought the same thing. I started early this morning checking the data from the NCAA site and the rebounds had him listed at 63rd ITN. I checked just now and they have him at 46th ITN on RPG. The OFF rebs is still showing the same at 26th. They could have been down loading the data while I was working on the post. Fixed it ...thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I thought the same thing. I started early this morning checking the data from the NCAA site and the rebounds had him listed at 63rd ITN. I checked just now and they have him at 46th ITN on RPG. The OFF rebs is still showing the same at 26th. They could have been down loading the data while I was working on the post. Fixed it ...thanks -got it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Does this take into account They wont have their HC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 No ....Not at this time....if by the time they get to the A-10 tournament it sees some discernable difference it will make an adjustment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, wgstl said: Does this take into account They wont have their HC? Interesting point. This is their first home game since Coach Mooney’s health issues surfaced, and they’re 11-3 at Home (1-9 on the road). I could see a lot of emotion on the sidelines, will that make a them even tougher at home? Better be ready for it, I don’t see how it fits in Wiz’s computer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 The loss of Mooney is an intangible that no computer can be able to ascertain. They coudl come blazing, winning one for the Gipper. Or flat. Since it's us, I'm going with the former as opposed to the latter. One good thing is that it's at least not Senior Night at Richmond. It will be at VCU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 11 hours ago, Taj79 said: The loss of Mooney is an intangible that no computer can be able to ascertain. They coudl come blazing, winning one for the Gipper. Or flat. Since it's us, I'm going with the former as opposed to the latter. One good thing is that it's at least not Senior Night at Richmond. It will be at VCU. Didn’t VCU have their “Senior Night” this past Saturday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, CenHudDude said: Didn’t VCU have their “Senior Night” this past Saturday? Just looked up VCU’s schedule. “Senior Day” was this past Saturday vs. Fordham. I believe they schedule it for their last home Saturday game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Team Rankings has Richmond by one with a 1-star confidence level. Sagarin has us by 2, but by one under their "recent" ranking. Got to get this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 My biggest concern is that I'm starting to feel interested again. And whenever that happens, something terrible usually follows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 This reminds me of when we played St. Joe's after Martelli's dad died- they came out and played the game of their lives. Couldn't miss a shot. billiken_roy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Richmond is 5-2 at home in A10 games. They also don't foul. They've had 222 whistles blown against them in A10, with 259 whistles on the opponents. For comparison, the Bills are almost neutral, 241 calls against the Bills, 244 on the opponents. And of course the Spiders are the best FT% team in A10 play. The Spiders aren't good from the Arc, hitting only 30% in A10 play which is 13th. They are also 14th in rebounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 35 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Richmond is 5-2 at home in A10 games. They also don't foul. They've had 222 whistles blown against them in A10, with 259 whistles on the opponents. For comparison, the Bills are almost neutral, 241 calls against the Bills, 244 on the opponents. And of course the Spiders are the best FT% team in A10 play. The Spiders aren't good from the Arc, hitting only 30% in A10 play which is 13th. They are also 14th in rebounds. Over/under on their 3pt percentage? 45% I'm taking the over tonight.......Hopefully Jimerson can get to the hoop..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On paper its a good match up for us. No overwhelming bigs. Small or not quick on ball defenders guarding Yuri. As long as Gibby/ THJ can contain Grace and gustavson who have been their only 3 point shooters in conf play, feeling pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Gustavson is their supposed defensive ace so I expect him to get the Gibby assignment tonight. Bailey/Nelson whould get Collins.Quinn will get Okoro. Grace will likely get Hargrove leaving Burton on Perkins. That leaves Bigelow/Roche dealing with Pickett, Forrester, Hughes and Parker. Even throwing Nelson off th ebench I like ours better. Of course, we don't nbeed to host a coming out party for Roche from deep. We have played well at Richond in the recent past. Their house is not the house of horrors like Dayton or VCU. On one hand, I don't get the idea of a Senior Night on not the last home game of the year. On the other hand, a Senior Night on a Saturday woud seem to guarantee the largest crowd possible. However, VCU sells out every game. The only 'seniors' of note on VCU's roster are fifth year mercenaries Johns and Shriver. Richmond's ESPN roster lists Burton, Crabtree, Grace, Gustavson, Quinn and Bigelow all as seniors although Verbal Commits only lists Grace and Gustavson. Burton declared for the draft last year and much like the Collins situation with us, I'd be surprised if he returns for a fifth COVID year. Either the pros or elsewhere for him inthe future as I see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... 2/8...Thames....Out indefinitely....undisclosed......unspecified issue with no time table to return RICH... 2/15...Nelson...ankle...questionable 2/16...Walz...undisclosed...questionable 1/25...Crabtree...fractured finger...expected return mid March Latest update...Nelson ready to play....Walz out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Taj79 said: Gustavson is their supposed defensive ace so I expect him to get the Gibby assignment tonight. Bailey/Nelson whould get Collins.Quinn will get Okoro. Grace will likely get Hargrove leaving Burton on Perkins. That leaves Bigelow/Roche dealing with Pickett, Forrester, Hughes and Parker. Even throwing Nelson off th ebench I like ours better. Perk guarding Burton is scary. Would rather that be THJ. Grace isn't as quick and shifty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 @wgstl: I was doing their matchups on us. I agree Hargrove needs to take Burton likely followed by Pickett. I don't think they can afford Grace on Perkins even with a limited Perkins. Plus they like to give Burton the lesser defensive assignment so he is free to double down, create turnovers, get out on th ebreak and rebound like Goodwinb used to do for us. He really is the center of their universe this year. Likely first team All A10 on a decidedly bad team (record wise). wgstl likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Short of Roche being in the game, this might be a good team to zone against. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Line per cbssports.com: PK (Pick 'em), o142.5; ESPN.com concurs- EVEN. Sagarin: SLU by 1.8, rounded to 2; Haslametrics: SLU by 1.56, rounded to 2. Records: SLU 18-9, 10-4; Richmond 13-14, 6-8. SLU leads the all-time series 13-9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 hours ago, Taj79 said: @wgstl: I was doing their matchups on us. I agree Hargrove needs to take Burton likely followed by Pickett. I don't think they can afford Grace on Perkins even with a limited Perkins. Plus they like to give Burton the lesser defensive assignment so he is free to double down, create turnovers, get out on th ebreak and rebound like Goodwinb used to do for us. He really is the center of their universe this year. Likely first team All A10 on a decidedly bad team (record wise). Burton is 6'7", perhaps the best in a series of matchup issues SLU has faced at the 4, although he is really a fluid 3. Grace was dubbed "The Bard" from Shakespeare by our fellow SLU alumnus at last year's A10 Tourney in DC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12 hours ago, HoosierPal said: Richmond is 5-2 at home in A10 games. They also don't foul. They've had 222 whistles blown against them in A10, with 259 whistles on the opponents. For comparison, the Bills are almost neutral, 241 calls against the Bills, 244 on the opponents. And of course the Spiders are the best FT% team in A10 play. The Spiders aren't good from the Arc, hitting only 30% in A10 play which is 13th. They are also 14th in rebounds. Oops. Can I get a mulligan on that statement? 45.9% on 37 shots tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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