O.T. Conference Shuffle ( OU and Texas inquire about joining SEC)

[brianstl]

1 minute ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Because they see the future and only the SEC and B10 matter.  Yeah they'll pay less for an SEC that has all the good ACC teams in it.  This way they control where Clemson, FSU go instead of going to the B10.

They aren't going to let UNC and Virginia walk to the Big 10 and Fox.  Those two are the prizes of the ACC when it comes to media rights.  Clemson and FSU are the next tier properties.  They would happily let FSU and Clemson go to the Big 10 if they get UNC and Virginia. 

 

[TheA_Bomb]

1 minute ago, brianstl said:

They aren't going to let UNC and Virginia walk to the Big 10 and Fox.  Those two are the prizes of the ACC when it comes to media rights.  Clemson and FSU are the next tier properties.  They would happily let FSU and Clemson go to the Big 10 if they get UNC and Virginia. 

 

I don't agree with UNC and UVA as top schools in the ACC.

FSU and Clemson are the prizes of the ACC because football matters more.  CBS owns March Madness.  A lot of people don't watch CBB until March.

If this graphic is to be believed, it's reportedly from the FSU AD. FSU has 70% more viewers that ACC average.

https://medium.com/run-it-back-with-zach/which-college-football-programs-bring-in-the-most-tv-viewers-efc03c689e50#:~:text=Alabama and Georgia were among,per week from 2015–19.

More football viewer data with Clemson and FSU in top 15 viewed.

Not sure the source probably the same sports info aggregators referenced above

Maybe ESPN doesn't want to lose the other schools that's why I think this move is to force their hand.  They could risk losing big football draws or reshape it to something bigger and save money.

[slu72]

If the ACC breaks up as discussed above I could see where the Beast and the remaining ACC teams could merge to form a super BB conference. Plus they’d have enough FB Schools to form some sort of conference as well that has ND and Miami in it. Bottom line for SLU, we’re effed as far as the Beast goes. 

[Lord Elrond]

15 minutes ago, slu72 said:

If the ACC breaks up as discussed above I could see where the Beast and the remaining ACC teams could merge to form a super BB conference. Plus they’d have enough FB Schools to form some sort of conference as well that has ND and Miami in it. Bottom line for SLU, we’re effed as far as the Beast goes. 

If the ACC breaks up, and Notre Dame is a free agent, why would they be part of this?  Maybe the call of the B1G finally gets answered? After all, a lot of their traditional rivals are in the B1G, especially with USC. 

[TheA_Bomb]

13 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said:

If the ACC breaks up, and Notre Dame is a free agent, why would they be part of this?  Maybe the call of the B1G finally gets answered? After all, a lot of their traditional rivals are in the B1G, especially with USC. 

Yeah they probably go to the B10.  They have to be in deep discussions because there was a chance they got locked out of ever getting a bye in the CFP because they can't be a conference champion.

[Lord Elrond]

16 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Yeah they probably go to the B10.  They have to be in deep discussions because there was a chance they got locked out of ever getting a bye in the CFP because they can't be a conference champion.

Not to mention the B1G is now where their rivals are. Saw this on a Notre Dame fan website, and the biggest rivalries their fans wanted to see:

1.) USC

2.) Michigan

3.) Michigan State

6.) Purdue

10.) Penn State

Honorable mention: Northwestern

The B1G would gladly serve up those every year if Notre Dame wants them

 

[almaman]

1 hour ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Yeah they probably go to the B10.  They have to be in deep discussions because there was a chance they got locked out of ever getting a bye in the CFP because they can't be a conference champion.

Back in da day ND was the O G non conference school

[Lord Elrond]

8 hours ago, almaman said:

Back in da day ND was the O G non conference school

Very true, but everyone else in the non-conference world has realized you can’t survive as an independent. With UMass heading to the MAC to get it’s football program into a conference, the entire independent FBS D1 world will consist of Notre Dame and UConn, and UConn has a severe problem in that they have no TV deal for revenue, and it’s going to be hard to schedule with everyone else in a conference. Notre Dame might be able to survive this way, but the way the scheduling works for the CFP, negotiating to get ND a special exemption outside of playing in a conference is getting harder and harder. 

[slu72]

11 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

If the ACC breaks up, and Notre Dame is a free agent, why would they be part of this?  Maybe the call of the B1G finally gets answered? After all, a lot of their traditional rivals are in the B1G, especially with USC. 

You’re correct about ND to the B10. So let’s just stick to hoops the remnants of a dissolved ACC have some great hoops resumes, especially Duke, UL, and Syracuse. So I could see them seeking refuge in the Beast for hoops  Not sure what their FB programs do. The remaing ACC schools would be Duke, WF, Pitt, MIAMI NCS, Cuse, BC, GT, UL, and VT. Add these 10 to the Beast 11 you’d have a 21 team league with great bloodlines. FB could add UConn and you’d have an 11 team FB conference. Maybe bring in WVU to round it off . 22 teams for hoops and 12 for FB. 

[sludevil]

13 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

UConn left the AAC (American Athletic Conference), not the ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference). Completely different pay zone.  They joined the Big East and wanted to stay in the AAC as an affiliate, but the AAC said no.  When they went independent, there were plenty of other independents, but in the last few years just about every FBS school has seen the financial advantages of joining a conference and had done so (Delaware to CUSA, Army to the AAC as a football only affiliate, and UMass to the MAC). Right now there are only 2 FBS schools that will not in a conference for football after UMass joins the MAC, Notre Dame and UConn. UConn’s financial situation in football is in no way comparable to Notre Dame’s (UConn has no national contract that I can find, their last one was with CBS, but got killed in 2021).   The UConn football on field lack of success also doesn’t help. If they were able to join the MAC or C-USA as an affiliate only for football they should make that deal in a heartbeat. 
 

If anything, UConn demonstrates the financial issues of going with a basketball only conference if you want to stay relevant in FBS football as well. It used to be you could be independent in football, but in this day and age, unless you are Notre Dame, the life of an FBS independent is not great. 

100%. Though independence is becoming increasingly difficult even for ND, who are now getting financially squeezed via the bad ACC media deal and via the new CFP deal. (And their NBC deal is probably not good enough to bridge the gap.) As with the ACC's implosion, I think ND joining a conference (presumably the B10) is now a matter of "when" rather than "if".

[sludevil]

[Deleted - apologies for the double post]

Edited March 20 by sludevil
Double post

[slu72]

10 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

Not to mention the B1G is now where their rivals are. Saw this on a Notre Dame fan website, and the biggest rivalries their fans wanted to see:

1.) USC

2.) Michigan

3.) Michigan State

6.) Purdue

10.) Penn State

Honorable mention: Northwestern

The B1G would gladly serve up those every year if Notre Dame wants them

 

Add OSU to the list. Behind Michigan ND is the second most hated team by Buckeye fans. 

[cheeseman]

Here is a crazy thought - make all D1 BB teams independents.  This would eliminate the P5 bias

[TheA_Bomb]

29 minutes ago, slu72 said:

You’re correct about ND to the B10. So let’s just stick to hoops the remnants of a dissolved ACC have some great hoops resumes, especially Duke, UL, and Syracuse. So I could see them seeking refuge in the Beast for hoops  Not sure what their FB programs do. The remaing ACC schools would be Duke, WF, Pitt, MIAMI NCS, Cuse, BC, GT, UL, and VT. Add these 10 to the Beast 11 you’d have a 21 team league with great bloodlines. FB could add UConn and you’d have an 11 team FB conference. Maybe bring in WVU to round it off . 22 teams for hoops and 12 for FB. 

Just my thoughts based on listening/reading those with their fingers on the pulse of this with inside sources.  

SEC/B10 takes the best FB schools goes to 4 Divisions each.  

UofL is actually good at Football probably SEC

Miami is not a big school but could see them going SEC to be with their natural rivals but B10 may  court them to have a FL foothold

Duke is decent at football, really good the last 2 seasons B10

NCState?  Gut says SEC but not sure if they and UNC are package deal, UNC is hotter commodity probably a head to head bid between SEC/B10 but I'd lean B10 for UNC especially if Duke goes B10

Syracuse B10

PITT B10 if they want them if not B12

GT was SEC back in the day I think, probably B10 based on like schools and gives them some GA market, but maybe left behind and B12

VT is really down at a bad time but could be back soon. See NCState above are they a package with UVA? UVA probably B10, but VA Tech feels SEC.  Could be B12

WF nobody cares about your FB, BE or stay in New ACC.

Clemson, FSU, SEC

If B10 and SEC do the above the B12 will probably follow suit on expansion.

So ACC in shambles it goes the way of the PAC12 and dies or tries to bring in basketball/football schools. Maybe UMASS, UCONN, GT, PITT, SMU, USF, Memphis, Tulane, maybe even VCU.  

Lot of speculation but more change is coming and I think pretty soon.  ACC as we know it is dead man walking.

[sludevil]

Based on my borderline-obsessive following of conference realignment over the last few years, I'd rank the ACC schools as follows:

1. Definitely safe (i.e., bound for the B10/SEC): UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson

2. On the bubble: Miami, VT, GT, NCSU

3. Not looking good, but unlikely to drop below the B12-level: Duke, Louisville

4. Definitely screwed: Wake, Syracuse, BC

The info on Pitt has been all over the place, but my best guess is that they're in group 3. However, groups 2 and 3 are far more fluid/interchangeable than groups 1 and 4, both of which are more or less carved in stone.

(And just for completeness: if we're counting ND as an ACC member, then they get their own group 1A.)

EDIT: And for further completeness, the new additions (Cal, Stanford, SMU) are probably somewhere between groups 3 and 4. (Group 3.5?) Still very strange to to me that California schools will be playing in the ACC.

[SLU_Lax]

59 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

Just my thoughts based on listening/reading those with their fingers on the pulse of this with inside sources.  

SEC/B10 takes the best FB schools goes to 4 Divisions each.  

UofL is actually good at Football probably SEC

Miami is not a big school but could see them going SEC to be with their natural rivals but B10 may  court them to have a FL foothold

Duke is decent at football, really good the last 2 seasons B10

NCState?  Gut says SEC but not sure if they and UNC are package deal, UNC is hotter commodity probably a head to head bid between SEC/B10 but I'd lean B10 for UNC especially if Duke goes B10

Syracuse B10

PITT B10 if they want them if not B12

GT was SEC back in the day I think, probably B10 based on like schools and gives them some GA market, but maybe left behind and B12

VT is really down at a bad time but could be back soon. See NCState above are they a package with UVA? UVA probably B10, but VA Tech feels SEC.  Could be B12

WF nobody cares about your FB, BE or stay in New ACC.

Clemson, FSU, SEC

If B10 and SEC do the above the B12 will probably follow suit on expansion.

So ACC in shambles it goes the way of the PAC12 and dies or tries to bring in basketball/football schools. Maybe UMASS, UCONN, GT, PITT, SMU, USF, Memphis, Tulane, maybe even VCU.  

Lot of speculation but more change is coming and I think pretty soon.  ACC as we know it is dead man walking.

In the B10 there is a strong academic component and the conference gets a lot of government research dollars (Nebraska is an outlier).  I would think that would be something making Georgia Tech, Va Tech, Duke, and UNC with NC State as potentially the favorites in my mind for the Big10.  Pitt and WF too potentially....just depends on how many teams B10 will take on.

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, SLU_Lax said:

In the B10 there is a strong academic component and the conference gets a lot of government research dollars (Nebraska is an outlier).  I would think that would be something making Georgia Tech, Va Tech, Duke, and UNC with NC State as potentially the favorites in my mind for the Big10.  Pitt and WF too potentially....just depends on how many teams B10 will take on.

This is true.  Nebraska is the only current Big 10 member not in the Association of American Universities.  So it is not a requirement for league membership.  New members UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington also belong to the AAU.  Any Big 10 Expansion candidates would have a much greater odds of acceptance is they are AAU qualified.  In 2023 the 71 AAU schools received nearly 60% of all federal funds for academic research.  In 2021 that was $31.5 billion for, at that time, 65 member schools.  You can do the math and see how important AAU membership is to the Big 10.  (Football media rights are estimated to reach between $80M and $100M per school per year under the new contract.)

ACC members that are in the AAU are Duke, Miami, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, and Virginia.  These schools would be at the head of the line for Big 10 poaching from the ACC. 

AAU Member Kansas would be a poaching candidate from the Big 12, if the dominos fall that far.

[TheA_Bomb]

19 minutes ago, SLU_Lax said:

In the B10 there is a strong academic component and the conference gets a lot of government research dollars (Nebraska is an outlier).  I would think that would be something making Georgia Tech, Va Tech, Duke, and UNC with NC State as potentially the favorites in my mind for the Big10.  Pitt and WF too potentially....just depends on how many teams B10 will take on.

Yeah I know this is always brought up with the B10.  I took that into account when I wildly speculated who might go where.  But I think that's down the list of priorities.  Football prowess, viewers, athletic department/NIL support, region (matters for SEC), basketball, baseball, track, other sports, academics.

 

All to say, let's be ready for the next shift. Being ready means having good athletics and support especially in our top viewed/grossing sport MBB.

[Cowboy II]

-I think that academic horse has left the barn when conference affiliation is the topic, it went the same direction as the APR horse

[ARon]

On 3/19/2024 at 12:46 PM, billiken_roy said:

ok bernie.   look that's her issue.   she should at least have the conversation.   how often will we see schools of that magnitude looking for a new home?   

If the commish has a move to make, it would be to pounce on any/all basketball only schools that are made second-class citizens in the Big East the moment any ACC refugees join the conference.

[thatskablamo]

5 hours ago, sludevil said:

Based on my borderline-obsessive following of conference realignment over the last few years, I'd rank the ACC schools as follows:

1. Definitely safe (i.e., bound for the B10/SEC): UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson

2. On the bubble: Miami, VT, GT, NCSU

3. Not looking good, but unlikely to drop below the B12-level: Duke, Louisville

4. Definitely screwed: Wake, Syracuse, BC

The info on Pitt has been all over the place, but my best guess is that they're in group 3. However, groups 2 and 3 are far more fluid/interchangeable than groups 1 and 4, both of which are more or less carved in stone.

(And just for completeness: if we're counting ND as an ACC member, then they get their own group 1A.)

EDIT: And for further completeness, the new additions (Cal, Stanford, SMU) are probably somewhere between groups 3 and 4. (Group 3.5?) Still very strange to to me that California schools will be playing in the ACC.

I’m shaking my head at UNC leaving the ACC without their hated Tobacco Road dance partner, though. I know precedent was set when the Aggies broke ranks with the teasippers up in Austin, but a conference with UNC that doesn’t have Duke in it doesn’t seem right. Will the Dookies let this happen? 

[sludevil]

21 minutes ago, thatskablamo said:

I’m shaking my head at UNC leaving the ACC without their hated Tobacco Road dance partner, though. I know precedent was set when the Aggies broke ranks with the teasippers up in Austin, but a conference with UNC that doesn’t have Duke in it doesn’t seem right. Will the Dookies let this happen? 

I agree that it sucks, but I don't think the Dookies will have much say in the matter. The only saving grace is that the ACC's implosion is probably (hopefully?) at least a few years off, which gives Duke some time to continue dumping money into the football program.

But ultimately I think the interests of Duke and SLU are somewhat aligned here: both need basketball to drive a larger portion of media value. To that end, Brett Yormark and other like-minded folks (who view basketball as undervalued) are incredibly important. In a best-case scenario, the B12's media deal comes up again before the ACC implodes, and the B12 provides a proof-of-concept of decoupling (and pushing more value towards) basketball in that next deal. Unfortunately, though, a lot has to go right for that to happen.

[TheA_Bomb]

2 minutes ago, sludevil said:

..... a best-case scenario, the B12's media deal comes up again before the ACC implodes, and the B12 provides a proof-of-concept of decoupling (and pushing more value towards) basketball in that next deal. Unfortunately, though, a lot has to go right for that to happen.

ACC is in hospice care right now.  Dr Brinton (voted STL Best Dr 8 years in a row) says they might have 2 years to live.

The court cases are filed.

Duke can be in the B10, I don't think that's a problem. I'm telling you their football has been good for a few years now, they got a good QB transfer with a cannon for an arm.

[almaman]

54 minutes ago, thatskablamo said:

I’m shaking my head at UNC leaving the ACC without their hated Tobacco Road dance partner, though. I know precedent was set when the Aggies broke ranks with the teasippers up in Austin, but a conference with UNC that doesn’t have Duke in it doesn’t seem right. Will the Dookies let this happen? 

like Harvard/Yale, Michigan/Ohio St, Lindenwood/SIUE

[sludevil]

12 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:

ACC is in hospice care right now.  Dr Brinton (voted STL Best Dr 8 years in a row) says they might have 2 years to live.

The court cases are filed.

Duke can be in the B10, I don't think that's a problem. I'm telling you their football has been good for a few years now, they got a good QB transfer with a cannon for an arm.

Two years feels like the lower bound for the ACC's remaining lifespan. The court cases will probably take at least a year or two to play out - and then the result would have to be favorable to FSU/Clemson (i.e., something less than $572 million in total exit fees, as estimated by FSU).

Duke football has been solid recently (minus the dip at the end of the Cutcliffe era), but has historically been very bad. Duke is also missing the large alumni base + linear cable value of the big state schools like UNC and UVA. But there's not a whole lot to be done about that - gotta just play the cards you're dealt and hope the B10/SEC sees the case for expansion.