sludevil

Two years feels like the lower bound for the ACC's remaining lifespan. The court cases will probably take at least a year or two to play out - and then the result would have to be favorable to FSU/Clemson (i.e., something less than $572 million in total exit fees, as estimated by FSU). Duke football has been solid recently (minus the dip at the end of the Cutcliffe era), but has historically been very bad. Duke is also missing the large alumni base + linear cable value of the big state schools like UNC and UVA. But there's not a whole lot to be done about that - gotta just play the cards you're dealt and hope the B10/SEC sees the case for expansion.

I agree that it sucks, but I don't think the Dookies will have much say in the matter. The only saving grace is that the ACC's implosion is probably (hopefully?) at least a few years off, which gives Duke some time to continue dumping money into the football program. But ultimately I think the interests of Duke and SLU are somewhat aligned here: both need basketball to drive a larger portion of media value. To that end, Brett Yormark and other like-minded folks (who view basketball as undervalued) are incredibly important. In a best-case scenario, the B12's media deal comes up again before the ACC implodes, and the B12 provides a proof-of-concept of decoupling (and pushing more value towards) basketball in that next deal. Unfortunately, though, a lot has to go right for that to happen.

Based on my borderline-obsessive following of conference realignment over the last few years, I'd rank the ACC schools as follows: 1. Definitely safe (i.e., bound for the B10/SEC): UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson 2. On the bubble: Miami, VT, GT, NCSU 3. Not looking good, but unlikely to drop below the B12-level: Duke, Louisville 4. Definitely screwed: Wake, Syracuse, BC The info on Pitt has been all over the place, but my best guess is that they're in group 3. However, groups 2 and 3 are far more fluid/interchangeable than groups 1 and 4, both of which are more or less carved in stone. (And just for completeness: if we're counting ND as an ACC member, then they get their own group 1A.) EDIT: And for further completeness, the new additions (Cal, Stanford, SMU) are probably somewhere between groups 3 and 4. (Group 3.5?) Still very strange to to me that California schools will be playing in the ACC.

It's just a human response. And we could very well be in the same boat in a few years if Schertz does well here. I definitely feel for ISU. It's just a really bad chain of events: (1) get snubbed by the NCAA committee (in favor of a hilariously underqualified UVA team?), (2) transfer portal opens and (3) lose your coach to a fellow mid-major. Basically have to start from scratch, and you don't even get the national exposure that would've come with Cream Abdul-Jabbar in the tourney. (With that said, I'm excited as hell for this hire and hope he brings some of the ISU players with him.)

[Deleted - apologies for the double post]

100%. Though independence is becoming increasingly difficult even for ND, who are now getting financially squeezed via the bad ACC media deal and via the new CFP deal. (And their NBC deal is probably not good enough to bridge the gap.) As with the ACC's implosion, I think ND joining a conference (presumably the B10) is now a matter of "when" rather than "if".

Also depends on the legal requirements that are in place when the dust settles. If schools are forced to treat players as employees (and/or share revenue with players), then that probably creates another massive shock. The only real guarantee is that the top B10 and SEC teams will be fine. Everyone else (including the "lesser" teams in the B10/SEC) is on less solid footing.

Very true. I should've clarified that the ACC is dead as a "power" conference. Something will happen with the ACC and the B12 - either a combination of some sort, or just a handful of ACC teams joining the B12. (And there's probably even room for a tier below that with WSU/OSU + the ACC leftovers, if any + maybe the better AAC/MWC teams. There are lots of possibilities, but all of them are far worse for the teams involved than when we had a true P5 structure.)

That's effectively what's happening, though FSU filed in Florida and Clemson in South Carolina. Their legal arguments are also different: FSU is basically going for broke (i.e., GoR should be thrown out), while Clemson is taking a somewhat more nuanced approach (i.e., once we exit the conference, the GoR no longer applies to us). It sure looks like FSU and Clemson coordinated their suits and arguments - so if they can't win on FSU's case, they may be able to use Clemson's case as a fallback. And, of course, defending suits on multiple fronts will further pressure the ACC to settle. In any event, the ACC is dead. It's just a matter of time.

Agreed. Can only assume Tony Bennet has some crazy dirt on the selection committee.

I think the large majority of P6 positions are viewed as superior to SLU, though I agree with your take on Vandy. But perhaps the bigger issue is that the pool of HC candidates isn't fixed. A "stud" candidate can simply choose to stay at his current job (probably with a substantial pay raise) if he doesn't see the value in leaving for SLU right now (e.g., SLU isn't enough of a step up, or he thinks a better opportunity will present itself in the future). We're playing against the field of current openings + the field of potential openings over the next ~year.

For what it's worth, the latest from Trilly Donovan: "The buyout is large, but it sounds like Saint Louis will have the money. Does Chris May go too?"

Per Brett McMurphy, Heeke was fired for "financial & operational mismanagement, resulting in an athletic department financial 'disaster,' loss of major donors & mishandling of former coach Jedd Fisch's contract".

It isn't clear where the info is sourced from - but he has a strong track record on things like this, and he tends to avoid posting rumors that he hasn't independently confirmed. It's certainly encouraging for those of us who would like to see a change.

Trilly Donovan noting today that it’s “tournament or bust” for Ford. Seems promising (and definitive).

It's a school run by Florida men. Anything is possible.

This was actually confirmed at the time by Brett Yormark, but today's report notes that those discussions are dead. My guess is that if the B12 gets Gonzaga, they'll want to pair the Zags with another basketball-only school.

The best-case scenario for SLU is for the Zags to join the B12 and then the B12 to poach a school from the Big East (St. John's? Villanova?), thus creating a spot for the BE to backfill. (Though I wouldn't be shocked if the BE is already looking to expand in connection with its next media deal.)

I agree with your second point far more than your first. For almost his entire career, Love has wavered between average to actively harmful to his team. Maybe some of that is a product of his environment, teammates, etc., but outside of a very limited window last year, there's not much in his college track record to suggest that he can be a positive player over the course of a season. With that said, he was still a multi-year starter for a blue blood program (and a top HS recruit), so I agree that a transfer to SLU would probably generate positive headlines.

I very much agree with this. The past season has hurt Love's stock - and for a kid with NBA aspirations, I imagine he'll prioritize "fit" (i.e., being the centerpiece of an offense) over NIL. UNC fans have also (justifiability, for the most part) been tough on him throughout his career, so a friendly hometown crowd probably also works in our favor. I would still bet on him going to a P5 team, but I don't think our odds are as hopeless as others on this thread seem to believe.

I believe it's almost entirely driven by TV contracts. Their current push to grab PAC-12 schools will allow them to offer football games in the "fourth window" (i.e., late night), which is valuable to media partners looking for inventory. But I agree that - absent some very creative scheduling - the travel logistics could be a nightmare.

For what it's worth, there are some rumblings that Brett Yormark may be looking to add one or more schools to the Big 12 as basketball-only members, which may include Villanova, St. John's and/or UConn. The idea here is that Yormark believes basketball is undervalued in the current media landscape and may look to sell basketball as a separate package in the Big 12's next deal. In support of these rumblings are (i) the Big 12's confirmed talks with Gonzaga, (ii) Yormark's statements regarding his view of basketball's value and (iii) the Big 12's newly-announced partnership with Rucker Park. Obviously just Twitter rumblings for now - and it isn't clear how, if at all, any PAC-12 defections to the Big 12 might impact the Big 12's appetite for basketball-only schools - but it's an interesting thought exercise if nothing else. I've gotta believe SLU (and Dayton?) would be at the top of the list if the Big East needs to backfill.

I fell asleep in the first half and just woke up to this thread. I take it we're not winning.

This is spot-on. I wasn't a huge fan of hiring Crews either, based on his track record - but at the time, the guy was in the middle of winning coach-of-the-year awards and putting together a few very successful seasons (even if with Majerus' recruits). I don't think we can fault the administration for giving him the contract - hell, not giving him the contract may have been spun into its own negative headlines. ("SLU has the coach of the year and still they won't invest in him.") Obviously, we see now that Crews is not the guy. So hopefully Pestello takes this opportunity to demonstrate his commitment to the program in hiring Crews' successor.

Just to provide my two cents on the other side: Duke definitely seems optimistic about Tatum, but I don't think they've received any real indication that they're the favorite. From here, it seems like a coin toss between Duke and SLU. I think anyone taking a strong stance for Duke right now is basing it entirely on "we're Duke, and they're SLU."